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2007 NFL Picks - Week Four

Giddy-up! It’s Week 4 of the NFL season, so there’s a few things we know (The facts), a few things we’re pretty certain of (The theories), and some things we have no idea how to comprehend (The Bears). Generally, by about Week four I’ve got my two or three teams that I won’t bet against under any circumstance, a couple teams that I won’t bet with under any circumstance, and a pretty good idea about the other 25 or so teams in the league.

I finished last week at 7-6-3, with only the Colts to blame for not getting my overall record back to .500. Seriously – how do you allow that late score to cut the gap to six points on a 6.5-point line?

Anyway, I’m 21-22-5 heading into the quarter mark of the 2007 NFL season. With any luck (which is a phrase that should never, under any circumstances, be used in sports gambling), I can make a four or five week run and put myself 20-games over by the halfway point.

That said, let’s jump right into the picks. As always, home teams in CAPS, and all lines accurate as of 9pm from Bodoglife.com.

Raiders (+4) over DOLPHINS: As much as it hurts me to say this, I actually like this Raiders team. They’ve been close in both of their losses – narrowly missing a huge 4^th quarter comeback against the Lions, and then taking the Broncos to overtime. Last week’s win, though against a lousy opponent, proves that they can hold onto a lead when needed. By the way – this game counts as one of my three favorite teaser lines for the week.

Texans (-3) over FALCONS: The NFC is 6-8 against the AFC this season. So it just seems to make sense that the worst team in the NFC would have a tough time hanging with a surprisingly good AFC team, even if that team is without their #1 running back and wide receiver. If we’ve learned one thing in the past couple years, it’s that while fantasy teams are doomed when their #1 back or receiver is lost for extended time, in real life, it’s not such a big deal.

Ravens (-4) over BROWNS: There’s two ways to look at the “revenge” factors in this game. Either Jamal Lewis tees off on his former team and makes them wish they hadn’t let him go in favor of a younger, better running back in Willis McGahee, or the Ravens’ D tees off on Lewis (and by proxy, the entire Cleveland offense), making him wish he’d signed with an opponent outside of the division. Even though I believe the Ravens are far more overrated than anyone thought possible, I think they’ll be adequately amped up for this game.

Bears (-3) over LIONS: The Bears’ strength the past few seasons has been their defense, but right now everyone on that side of the ball is banged up. They’ll most likely be without a handful of key defensive starters, and just to add an additional degree of difficulty, they’ve switched starting quarterbacks. Seems like a natural to take them as a road favorite, right? Well actually, yes. Not only that, but I’m picking up Brian Griese as a 1-week waiver wire wonder and hoping like hell that the Lions’ pass defense (currently dead last in the NFC and second to last in the NFL) doesn’t suddenly wake up. In what figures to be a shootout, I’m taking the team with the moderately better defense to make at least one big stop.

Packers (-3) over VIKINGS: So many road favorites this week… Here’s the thing – everyone will tell you that Brett Favre has a lousy history against the Vikings, and even moreso in the Metrodome. And they’d be right. But he’s been fairly good over the past three or four seasons against the Vikings, and with the added incentive of breaking the all-time touchdowns record against the team that has given him the most problems, I don’t see any reason to thin the Pack doesn’t have a good enough game to cover three points.

COWBOYS (-13.5) over Rams: I can’t believe I’m voluntarily laying two scores to the Rams, of all teams. But when your starting running back is out (not such a big deal), and your starting QB is playing with two broken ribs, against the best team in the conference and a consensus top-3 team in the NFL… things aren’t looking so good. Also, this is Teaser game #2… Cowboys -7.5 looks a lot better than -13.5

Jets (-3.5) over BILLS: There are a few theories floating around about this game. Maybe the Jets are better than we thought, but just had a horrific first two weeks to the season. Maybe the Bills are better off without J.P. Losman, or more specifically, with an unknown QB under center. Here’s the theory I subscribe to – no Losman, no Pozluzny, and possibly no McGee returning kicks… no way the Bills keep this game close.

Bucs (+3) over PANTHERS: I don’t trust David Carr. Not that I’ve got blind faith in Jeff Garcia, but David Carr has cost me more money over the past five years than I care to think about. Plus, it’s surprising to say, but is it possible that the Bucs’ defense is actually good again? I mean all they’ve beaten is the Rams & Saints – two teams whose offenses look completely inept right now, but they did hold both teams to practically nothing on offense, plus they played the Seahawks tight in Week One. I might be willing to concede that right now, the Bucs are the best team in the NFC South.

Seahawks (-2.5) over 49ERS: You watch – Seattle is 100% playing possum. They are just doing enough to win the games, and with the exception of a botched handoff against the Cardinals, they’d be 3-0 and everyone would already have penciled in a Cowboys/Seahawks NFC Title Game. 9 wins will probably be enough to take that division – anything more is simply going to be put towards playoff seeding.

Steelers (-6.5) over CARDINALS: I know all about the “former coaches against their old teams” angle. I also know just how dominant the Steelers have looked for the past three weeks. Do you realize they haven’t given up 30 total points yet (26), but they’ve scored the third most in the league (97, behind only New England and Dallas)? Pittsburgh is for real this year, and as much as I’d love to see the Cardinals and whichever QB they decide to throw out there (which is a whole different story… way to kill a young QB’s confidence there Wizzer), there’s no doubt in my mind that Pittsburgh – barring some catastrophic injury – wins by 10+. Also – Teaser Game #3… Pittsburgh in basically a Pick-‘Em sounds almost too easy.

Chiefs (+12) over CHARGERS: This is a joke, right? I don’t care how badly people want to believe that this is the same San Diego team from last season – they’re not covering a 12-point line right now. The Chiefs might not score 10 all game long, and the Chargers know that – if they open a 10-14 point lead, look for them to run the clock and allow the Chiefs one last garbage time drive to close the gap and cover the line.

COLTS (-10) over Broncos: I don’t think I’ve correctly picked a Colts game yet this season, so why start now? Indy usually decimates Denver, especially when the Colts are at home. Even though the Broncos have Champ Bailey and Dre Bly to slow down Marvin Harrison & Reggie Wayne, they’ve got nobody to stop Dallas Clark, nobody to stop Joseph Addai, and more importantly, nobody to pressure Peyton Manning enough that he can’t find somebody else open downfield. Teaser Game #4, just in case you’re wondering.

Eagles (-3) over GIANTS: Note to fantasy football owners everywhere – if you have Donovan McNabb on your team, this might be a good week to start him. I’m just saying, is all. I have friends who are die-hard Giants’ fans, and even they are picking up QBs and Wide Receivers on a weekly basis to start against the G-Men. If this game turns in to a shootout, I’ve got just a hair more confidence in the QB with 4 NFC Title Game appearances and a trip to the Super Bowl under his belt over the one whose last name ends in “-anning”.

Patriots (-7.5) over BENGALS: I haven’t picked the Pats to cover a spread yet this season. I’ve learned my lesson. Until they win a game by less than 20, I’ll be more than happy to lay the points. And for the record, if you’re timid with your bets (as I’ve become of late), this is Teaser Game #5.

RECAP: Raiders / Texans / Ravens / Bears / Packers / COWBOYS / Jets / Bucs / Seahawks / Steelers / Chiefs / COLTS / Eagles / Patriots

Holy crap – only two home teams? This week is going to be awful interesting…

Lata.

Labels: : 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 9:38 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Season - Week 3 Recap

I'm reviving a modified version of my Weekly "Rants & Ranks" that I began writing after Week 9 of last season. This year, I'm limiting it to a top & bottom 5, and just to be all witty and special-like, I'll even give it a name. How about "Fab 5" and "Foul 5"? Will that work for everyone? Can we get a consensus vote real quick?

Eh, screw it. It's my page, I'll do as I please. Onward and upward...


New England (3-0): No, this is not a homer pick. There is not one "expert" out there who would dispute that the New England Patriots, even without their two best defensive players in Rodney Harrison & Richard Seymour, are the best team in the NFL. Look at it this way - if you're a Patriots' fan, is there a single team in the league that scares you? And if you're not a Pats' fan, is there any other team you would rather face less than New England?

Dallas (3-0): Too bad this wasn't setup last season. This year, there's not nearly as many storylines for the media to feed off during a season where it looks like the Pats & Cowboys are headed for a Super Bowl collision. Last year there was Bill Parcells, the end of another Drew Bledsoe era for another team, Terry Glenn as a productive wide receiver again... Now there's what?

Indianapolis (3-0): As is to be expected at this point, Peyton Manning is leading the Colts to an undefeated record early in the season. Unfortunately, they still haven't really been tested - blowing out what looks like a vastly overrated Saints team, squeaking by a vastly underrated Titans team, and then barely holding on against Houston last week (and costing me a cover on a -6.5 point line by giving up the late score...) it's almost like they're biding their time until they play a game that "matters".

Pittsburgh (3-0): Gotta tell you, living in this city now, I don't know that I've ever met more passionate football fans. Understandable, since the Pirates are absolutely abyssmal, and no one cares about hockey, but this city is 100% insane about the Steelers. And this season, it looks like they've got a legitimate team to be crazy for.

Green Bay (3-0): How weird is it to be saying that after just about 20% of the season, the Green Bay Packers are one of the top 5 teams in the league? Their defense looks much better than it has in the past, and the offense (and by offense, I mean "Brett Favre"...) looks much more controlled than it has over the past four or five years. Of course, this is exactly the way the Saints started last season - big, emotional wins against supposedly strong opponents, a defense playing over it's head, and by Week 14 or so they had almost completely reverted to their former selves. For the sake of all that is good about the NFL, let's hope that's not the case here. I'd love to see Favre go out on at least a playoff team, if not an outright Conference Champion.

The Foul 5:

Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 4:26 PM 1 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week III

(Editor’s note: This was typed and ready for upload on Thursday Night. Apparently, Blogger decided to save it as a draft until I checked the page this morning - Saturday. Fuck Blogger, and my blind reliance on them. Someday I’ll learn how to write the code myself and just host the blog on my own domain. Until then, my apologies. So I’ve taken the time to re-evaluate things and check on new lines – these are the most updated numbers, and my thoughts on the games as a result of the current lines.)

Week Two in the NFL season is my second least favorite to try and pick. Aside from Week 17 when only about 1/3 of the teams actually have something to play for, Week Two is the week that screws the most gamblers nationwide. People get swayed by what the saw in Week One (Ahem… Cincinnati’s half decent showing on defense, Buffalo’s near-win against Denver, etc.), which leads them to do stupid things in Week Two. Oddsmakers know this – that’s why there are always a disproportionate number of “big” lines in Week Two to any other week.

Anyway, all that being said, I’m actually not too displeased with a 7-9 showing. It lowers my 2-week record for the season to date down to 14-16-2, but that’s OK. Week Three is the week to make up for previous mistakes…

Or to throw good money after bad. I haven’t figured out which yet.

As always, home team in CAPS. All lines from Bodoglife.com (formerly Bodog.com – apparently they got sued or something and had to change), and accurate as of 6pm Thursday 5pm Saturday evening.

Colts (-6.5) over TEXANS: I can’t believe we actually have a Colts/Texans’ game that means something for both teams! More importantly, I can’t believe we have a Colts/Texans’ game with a single-digit point spread. Guess the oddsmakers were watching the way the Titans almost pulled one out last week.

PACKERS (+6) over Chargers: This line has moved 1.5 since Wednesday towards the Chargers – it opened at SD (-4.5) This might be one of those games where it makes all the sense in the world to back the favorite, and yet they manage to cough up a cover in the late minutes, or even lose it outright. I like the way Green Bay is playing so far this year – and I’m reverting back to the old “Don’t bet against Brett Favre in Green Bay in a game that matters” rule.

Vikings (+3) over CHIEFS: I don’t care if Brooks Bollinger, Kelly Holcomb, Tarvaris Jackson or any other retread, has been or never will be is starting under center this week – the Chiefs have no way to stop Adrian Peterson. The Vikings defense excels at shutting down the running game – let’s see who has the balls to sit Larry Johnson on their fantasy teams this week…

Lions (+6) over EAGLES: What proof do we have that the Eagles are worthy of being 6-point favorites over a 2-0 team? Any? Philly’s QB is 9 months removed from an injury that takes 18 months to recover from; the defense is aging, and I don’t see any way they keep up with Detroit’s receivers. And I cannot believe I just wrote that.

Bills (+17) over PATRIOTS: I just can’t imagine that it’s wise to give 17 points against a division opponent, no matter how good the Patriots are, or how bad the Bills looked last week. On another note, I’ll be teasing the Patriots to -11 and feeling much better about my decision.

JETS (-3) over Dolphins: I originally had this as a Dolphins cover and possibly win, but then Zach Thomas was ruled out for the game with a concussion. That leaves a gaping hole in a defense that already was exposed and overmatched in last week’s game. Chad Pennington might not be able to beat them deep, but a steady 10-15 yards per completion and a decent running game, and the Jets should be able to take this one easily.

STEELERS (-9.5) over 49ers: And it won’t even be that close. San Francisco is probably the worst all-around 2-0 team in the NFL. Pittsburgh has got to be considered a Top-5 team right now, one step removed from New England, Indy, Dallas and maybe Chicago.

Cardinals (+8) over RAVENS: There is no reason on this planet or any other known extra-terrestrial entity why the Baltimore Ravens should be giving anything more than four points in any given game. Maybe the good people in Area 51 can answer that one for us. Or, maybe I should just stop typing and move to the next game…

BUCS (-4) over Rams: This just in – the Bucs might be good again! They kept it close against the Seahawks and completely dominated the Saints; that’s reason enough to think they have a chance in that division. On the other hand, the Rams are 0-2, and once again their defense has allowed 50% more points than their offense is able to score. Not a wining formula in the NFL.

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Jaguars: Gotta love the three and a half point line. It’s nice to see that the professionals have just as much of a clue about this game as I do. Here’s how I equate it – the Broncos kicked a last-second field goal to beat the Bills and went to overtime to beat the Raiders. The Jaguars, on the other hand, lost outright (and not even close) to the Titans, then steamrolled possibly the worst team in the league in Atlanta. In situations like this, when the records can’t really be trusted, I will almost take the home team. And especially when the home team has an advantage as big as the Broncos’.

Bengals (+3) over SEAHAWKS: Very simply, I don’t think the Bengals will get embarrassed like they did last week. I think this will be close, and in that case, I’m taking the points just about every time. More importantly, the Seahawks are very quietly putting together a pretty terrible pass defense of their own – it’s almost like they know they’ve got the division title all but wrapped up already, even if they’re currently tied for second place.

RAIDERS (-3) over Browns: Gotta think the Browns are closer to Week 1’s offense than they were to Week 2’s explosion. And even though the Raiders are 0-2, they’ve lost to two 2-0 teams, once by three in overtime to a division opponent, and once by a lot less than the 15-point final margin would suggest. Throw in the Black Hole and the definite possibility of a fan opening fire on the opposing team, and I’ll take the Raiders, and cross my fingers.

Panthers (-4) over FALCONS: People keep talking about how terrible the Chiefs’ offense is this year, and believe me – it’s awful. But the Chiefs’ are actually the second­ worst offense in the league this year – KC’s scored 13 total points in their first two games, Atlanta has managed only 10. (Buffalo is third with 17 total… maybe I should rethink that pick above…). So until the Falcons show me that they can generate more than one offensive score per game, I have zero intention of taking any point spread less than 13.

REDSKINS (-4) over Giants: Let’s put it this way – the Giants’ pass defense is so bad, that in my big fantasy league, I picked up Jason Campbell off of waivers this week specifically to face New York. And I feel pretty good about the move. I’ll be expecting something in the 240 yds, 2TDs area – if that happens, the Giants don’t have a chance.

Cowboys (+3) over BEARS: There’s at least a 30% chance that Dallas is the second best team in the NFL right now. This game will go a long way toward proving that point – Dallas’ defense is still not up to par, but it should be enough to shut down the Bears’ sad excuse for an offense. Whichever team scores 20 first will win.

Titans (+4) over SAINTS: I’ve lost confidence in the Saints. Not to mention, this line just reeks of carry-over from last season, much like the Detroit/Phily line above. Two teams playing at home, living off of their reputations from 2006. Tennessee looks legit – making the AFC South that much tougher for Indianapolis to roll through this year.

RECAP: Colts / PACKERS / Vikings / Lions / Bills / JETS / STEELERS / Cardinals / BUCS / BRONCOS / Bengals / RAIDERS / Panthers / REDSKINS / Cowboys / Titans

Now that my schedule is a little more settled down, I’ll try to post this and every Tuesday night for the next few weeks, and then get the posts up every Thursday night for your Friday morning reading pleasure.

(Late edit: Found this page through Deadspin. Possibly the funniest thing I've read in about a year.)

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 5:39 PM 0 comments

Pseudo-Live Blog: Big sports day

So, I'm gonna give the whole live blog another shot. It seems like everytime the Patriots play the Chargers, I'm in the mood to keep a live blog. Anyway, check back here throughout the day for updates - I doubt I'll be updating every three minutes or so as I've done in the past, but maybe 10-15 updates between the early games, the late games, the National Pats/Chargers game, and the Red Sox / Yankees , Schilling / Clemens mega-tilt tonight. Just a big sports day for me...

11:23PM: Goddamnit. That's it, I'm going to bed, trying to erase the memory of Derek Jeter hitting a bomb, btu even moreso the image of him pumping his fist recording the final out. I'll be back in a couple days - have to be in New York until Wednesday night for work, but the laptop is coming with me, so I might update from the road. Lata.

11:21PM: I am way too emotionally attached to this team... the Pats won, the Red Sox are at 2-2 with 2 outs, and my heart is beating about 180...

11:19PM: AAAHAHAHA! Forget Manny pinch hitting - it's David Ortiz vs. Mo Rivera, 9th inning, 2 outs, bases loaded after a walk to Pedroia, and Joe Torre is walking to the mound! What could he possibly say here? "Throw Strikes?"

11:16PM: INTERESTING?! Are you kidding? The first pitch hits Ellsbury right off the kneecap on the back knee... Please tell me Manny is available to pinch hit tonight...

11:15PM: Holy crap. Julio Lugo just woke me up with a frozen rope double to score Varitek and make it a 1-run game. Now we get the kid, Ellsbury. Someone who's got no fear of Mo Rivera. This could be interesting...

11:05PM: You think the Patriots weren't trying to send a message with this game? 4th and 1, 3-yard line, 3 minutes to go in a 31-14 game after a 10+ minute drive, and the Patriots go for it and get the touchdown. That one had to be personal, although the same could be said about holding LdT to 25 yards rushing (so far)...

10:55PM: JD Drew - really earning that $14M salary. Takes strike three on a nasty hook from Joba Chamberlain to kill any potential rally after Mike Lowell brings the Sox back within 2. On the other front, Tom Brady just did a great job drawing the Chargers offsides. Nice graphic from NBC showing the "Most wins for a QB in first 100 starts". Brady has 71 wins in 95 regular season starts. That's ridiculous in the NFL. Also, I am really starting to enjoy watching Laurence Maroney run as a full-time starting runningback. Does anybody else realize that Corey Dillon asked for his outright release this past offseason because he wanted to still be a featured back, and has yet to sign on with any other team?

10:36PM: One batter late. I picked up the phone to text Tim about Brady to Moss for a 31-7 Pats lead, and immediately as I turned the phone on, Derek Jeter did what Derek Jeter does - makes every resident of a six-state region (and millions of others around the country) hate him eternally. Truthfully, as much as Tito has managed this team very well all season long, and although Schilling was only at 90 pitches, he needed to be out when it was first & second with 1 out. That's the spot to bring in the lights out bullpen - get a fresh arm in the game to blow batters away. No matter what happens, the Sox can't be behind by more than 4.5 games, but this still sucks. At least the Pats are dominant.

10:16PM: Well crap. The Chargers scored the touchdown, and Ellsbury grounded out, to Doug Mientkiwicz of all people. Damnit. 24-7 and 1-1... this might be a long night.

10:15PM: Damnit I need Picture-in-Picture! 4th & Goal for the Chargers on the 1, and at the same time Jacoby Ellsbury is batting with 2 out in the 7th and the go ahead run on third... Flip, flip, flip, flip...

9:52PM: Pats up 24-0 @ the half (with Bob Kraft live in-studio, trying to look both contrite to the league and supportive of his coach... nice tightrope walk), though it probably should be more. A tipped ball led to a red zone INT on the Pats' final drive of the first half. Sox/Yanks are in a positive pitchers duel, which considering the first two games of the series, is not what anyone was expecting. For the halftime show, I'm going to finish packing and just relax for awhile, watching the Sox game. Back for the second half. (By the way - anyone who says Mike Lowell is not the offensive MVP of the Red Sox this season is an idiot. And anyone who says that JD Drew is any higher than about 50th on that list, just behind David Murphy, is also an idiot.)

9:30PM: Far be it for me to criticize a network for their programming decisions, but I'm getting a little tired of NBC's coverage of all the cameras in Gillette Stadium, the radio frequency monitors, etc. Though the choice of "Secret Agent Man" as exit music at a commercial break was pretty funny.

9:20PM: Should have seen this one coming... playing in my tournament, picking up Aces in the blind, making a massive raise to eliminate the 5 callers... and the phone rings. It's my mother. Those of you who read regularly know the uncanniness with which my monther brings bad luck upon my poker game. Needless to say, I was eliminated with an inside straight on the river. On the plus side, the Patriots just held on a big 3rd and 1, and the Sox continue to hold to their 1-0 lead... well, not anymore. As I was typing, Robbie Cano hit a bomb over the Monster. Surprisingly, my mother was no longer on the phone. And just when I thought this game might end before 1AM...

9:15PM: Anyone who says the Pats sold their soul to Satan for this team and the chance to win another Super Bowl... well here's your proof. NBC just flashed a graphic showing "R. Moss: 6 catches, 66 yards, TD" (6 points)... Personally, I'm fine with this. Meanwhile, in flipping to the Sox game for the commercial break, Joe Morgan is breaking down the horribly complex "Joba rules..." you know, the ones that say "If Joba Chamberlain pitches on Day X, he can't pitch on Day Y..." Not sure which is tougher - the Joba rules, or negotiating peace in the Middle East.

9:05PM: Pats up 14-0, Sox up 1-0, I'm down in a poker tournament. Well, 2 outta 3 ain't bad. Seems like a good time to mention that although the Pats are absolutely carving the Chargers' defense right now, I can't take too much joy in it. I'm looking for a close game, something in the area of Chargers losing by 3 or less...

8:20PM: Within one minute of each other, John Madden says "Well, he shouldn't have done that" on the Belichick scandal, and Joe Morgan tries to figure out wht pitch Curt Schilling just threw, finally deciding on a "slidepiece". I'm in hell.

7:45PM: I just got a text message from my buddy Tim. No note, just a picture:
















Apparantely, sitting in the bleachers for the Sox/Yanks game. Just one more reason for me to dislike him. I offered to send Patriots' score updates, but the more I think about it, the more likely it is that I send him some bad information... "LdT - 200yd, 4TD"... "#12 - OUT: broken hand"... "Coach BB killed by sniper"... stuff like that. Wonder if he'll believe me.


7:30PM: Correct me if I'm wrong here, but didn't Tiki Barber say that when he retired, he absolutely did not want to go into the booth and have anything to do with football commentary, that if he got into television he wanted to do something substantive? Any yet there he sits, in his pinstripes, breaking down the Giants' game with The Bus and Collinsworth. And, shockingly, he's talking about how the Giants' look depressed, like they're not properly motiviated by the coaches... wow, Tiki ripping the New York coaches. I'm stunned.

7:05PM: I probably should have mentioned in my picks post for this week that I absolutely HATE picking games in Week 2 of the season. Oddsmakers skew the lines way too much to balance out for Week 1 performances - how else do you explain things like Denver giving 10 points to Oakland, or the Texans getting in Carolina? Makes it very, very difficult to pick things accurately, and even harder to actually make money betting on it.

6:45PM: It really says something about the quality of the afternoon matchups when the three most interesting games involve Oakland, Detroit & Arizona. Seriously. This is just a lousy afternoon, and I'm not just saying that because I'm still pissed at the Colts & Titans...

5:30PM: You want to know fear? Try making a panic bet on the Lions (1st mistake), then hearing "Jon Kitna has left the game with a concussion". My hopes now rest on somebody named J.T. O'Sullivan, who sounds like he should be tending bar in Boston's South End instead of playing quarterback in the NFL. Other than that, I have lost all interest in the afternoon games, mostly because my choices for watching them are Cowboys/Dolphins or Jets/Ravens. Not exactly two barn-burners there. At this point in the day, I think I'm going to go take a shower and pack for my flight tomorrow night. Back sometime around the end of these disgusting games, and just before the Sunday Night Doubleheader.

4:55PM: Not that anybody cares, but a quick Fantasy football update for the day. I'm getting my ass handed to me in one league, and dominating the other two. In the one, I voluntarily started Alex Smith over Matt Leinart, and the Bengals defense over the Vikings. Not looking too good. However, in my other two leagues, I have Carson Palmer, so after his 400 yards, and 6 freaking touchdowns (gee, anybody see that coming?), it doesn't really matter what the rest of my team does - I think I win by default. Also, on a completely un-football-related note, this news made my stomach turn today.

4:10PM: Wow. Pretty good ending to the Colts/Titans game, as there always seems to be when Indy & Tennessee match up. Of course, the 2-point Colts win completely screwed me - The Titans didn't cover the moneyline, and the Colts didn't cover the 7.5 points. It might have been fun to watch, but it was about the worst possible scenario for gambling purposes. In other news, the Bengals' D is terrible, meaning I have even less faith in the Ravens' offense after last week's stinkbomb. Baltimore turned the ball over 6 times against a defense that has allowed 50+ points to the Browns today. Also, the Saints might be in a little bit of trouble. Allowing 40+ to the Colts in Week 1 is not exactly shocking. Allowing 30+ to the Bucs this week, after having an extra three days to prepare, is wholly inexcusable. Can you say "letdown year"?

3:25PM: It's official, this might be the most poorly played defensive game of the season. 41-31... with 6 minutes to go in the third quarter! This seems like a good time to mention that I picked up the Bengals' defense for a one-game start against the "anemic" Browns' offense this week in my money fantasy football league. My other option was the Vikings' D against the Lions. You know - the Vikings D that had 2 touchdowns and allower approximately 8 yards of total offense last week. Hmmm...

2:25PM: I'm stuck watching the, uh, defensive struggle between Buffalo and Pittsburgh. "Defensive Struggle" being a nice way to say "Affront to the offensive side of the ball". It's 12-0 at the half - Buffalo has about 16 total yards of offense, Pittsburgh has 4 field goals. Yawn. I might just go play computer games for the second half. In other news, the Bucs are leading the Saints 21-0 at the half, meaning you can expect a full article on SI.com tomorrow from Peter King talking about how Drew Brees is too good for this to be the way he plays all year, and "don't count out the Saints just yet".

Labels: Damn my thumbs hurt, Live Blog, NFL, Patriots, Red Sox

posted by Big D @ 2:24 PM 0 comments

What a weekend!

I must not have been paying attention when I filed my last post on here with My Week 1 Recap and Week 2 picks. How else could you explain how I missed possibly the biggest story in my sporting world?

Since moving to Pittsburgh, my access to the Boston sports scene has been limited to the WEEI web stream during the day, MLB.com's Gameday Audio package (which was soooo worth the $15 yearly fee), and the occasional FOX National Broadcast of the Red Sox on a Saturday. That's it. Obviously, I still have web access and can get to ESPN.com, SI.com, Foxsports.com, and a handful of blogs that I rely on for information.

That is, until this weekend. Tonight, the Red Sox / Yankees game is on a National ESPN broadcast. Tomorrow, the game is Nationally broadcast on FOX. Sunday night, I get to flip channels between the Red Sox / Yankees on ESPN and the Patriots / Chargers on NBC.

This is unbelievable! Not only do I get to watch my teams all in one weekend (all in HD, no less!), but I'm not even paying extra for Sunday Ticket or MLB.TV! I wish I'd realized this yesterday - I would have prepared myself properly (read: gone to buy three 12-packs and 6 different types of snacks) and holed up in my bedroom with a weekend-long live blog.

(UPDATE: I just had my second epiphany in as many hours - although it is going to be fantastic to see the Sox/Yanks on Saturday & Sunday, I will probably be subjected to the Joe Buck/TimMcCarver broadcast team on FOX, and Joe Morgan/Jon Miller on ESPN... Too bad the MLB.com webstream has about a 30 second delay)

(UPDATE UPDATE: There's a chance that network execs nationwide are subtely trying to set the world record for fights, break-ups and outright divorces in the greater New England area this weekend. How else do you explain Sox/Yanks and Pats/Chargers airing in direct competition with the Emmy award and the Emmy award re carpet pre-show? It's like the executives are just toying with families, trying to see how many single-television homes in New England will erupt into fullscale warfare Sunday night.)

As it stands, I'm thinking about live-blogging on Sunday for the Pats/Chargers & Sox/Yanks, especially considering the next day is going to be a waste anyway (I have to travel to New York at night for training later in the week).

I seriously don't know what to do with myself. It's like it's my birthday, only six weeks early. Check back Sunday morning - you might find me typing furiously while changing channels and researching a couple last-minute parlays.

Lata.

Labels: Gameday Audio, MLB, NFL, Sunday Ticket, This is the best use of technology EVER

posted by Big D @ 7:40 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week 2

Sorry for the delay. Normally, I post on Tuesday with a recap of the previous week’s games. This week just didn’t setup for that (next week won’t either, as I’ll be traveling for work). But from Week 3 – 17, I should be able to follow my normal NFL Posting schedule. Or at least I’ll try. But no promises…

So let's jump right into the good (Indy), bad (Baltimore) and ugly (Cleveland) from Week 1 of the 2007 NFL season before handing out Week 2’s picks

Good:

n Kind of goes without saying, but the Colts were pretty fantastic Thursday night. Especially after the half. Everyone picked New England to completely decimate the AFC, and while they certainly started out well (CameraGate notwithstanding), the Colts looked just as good, and did it against better competition. I might not be ready to hand the Pats the Lombardi Trophy just yet...

n I’m still trying to figure out whether Pittsburgh is as good as they looked Sunday, or if it was just a product of playing the team that will be holding the #1 overall draft pick next year. I think it’s probably 80/20 in favor of them being that good.

n Denver’s special teams gets some serious credit for pulling off the game winning field goal, on the road, while the clock was winding down to triple-zeroes. I understand the need to gain the extra eight yards or so that Javon Walker got on the final offensive play, but I have to think that Jason Elam could have made that field goal from eight yards deeper. Either way, it worked out in the end. Just living dangerously is all…

n Tennessee’s running game is either ridiculously good, or Jacksonville’s defense is a block of Swiss cheese.

Bad:

n Minnesota/Atlanta, Baltimore/Cincinnati, Arizona/San Francisco, and Chicago/San Diego. Four games that set back offensive advances in the NFL by about 20 years. Just ugly all around. Aren’t the Chargers and Bengals supposed to be offensive powerhouses?

n For that matter, I thought Dallas’ only strength this season was going to be their defense, since I’m convinced this is the year TO snaps. But giving up 35 points to a team that lost their starting running back early and had an ineffective quarterback late... That offense better be that good every game.

n New Orleans’ offense… New Orleans’ defense… New Orleans in general. Is it too early to start bringing back the “Aint’s”?

Ugly:

n Cleveland’s first quarter against Pittsburgh. In less than 6 minutes, they fumbled a snap on a punt (and committed FOUR penalties on the play), threw an INT, committed an offsides on a 3rd & 5 (which negated a 3-yard sack), and nearly gave up 15 yards on an Unsportsmanlike after stopping the Steelers on a long 3rd down. After that, I simply turned the game off – it was basically over anyway.

n The stupidity of the New England Patriots’ administration and coaching staff. As a fan, this absolutely sucks. I have to deal with people playing the “they’re only good because they cheat” card for the rest of the year (and maybe longer). And with a game this week that I didn’t expect New England to win anyway, the heckling will be even louder.

n My own stupidity. I had the good fortune to bang two parlays and two teasers this week, including a ridiculous 8-team 6-point teaser with Pittsburgh (+1), New England (-0.5), Tennessee (+13), San Diego (-0.5), Seattle (Pk), Dallas (Pk), Baltimore (+9) and San Francisco (+3) to start the season off nicely… and then decided it would be a good idea to try and win another World Series of Poker seat through a handful of Super-Satellites. Hello stupidity, goodbye winnings!

Onto this week’s picks. As always, Home team in CAPS, and the lines are accurate as of noon today from Bodog.com. Started off the season 7-7-2 last week, though when you factor those nice teasers into the equation it was more like 12-2-2…

49ers (+3) over RAMS: The injury to Orlando Pace is probably going to do more damage to the Rams’ chances this season than anything else. Stephen Jackson won’t have nearly the running lanes he’s become accustomed to, and Marc Bulger will need a little help protecting his blindside. The 49ers have a tendency to play to the level of their opponent, so this may be ugly.

Packers (+1) over GIANTS: Back to back road dogs… hmm. This line has actually been pulled from most books because of the uncertainty around Eli Manning’s shoulder, but regardless of his participation the Giants are too banged up to win this one. And if their hopes rest of Jared Lorenzen’s rather large left arm… well, this might just be my Suicide Eliminator pick for the week.

Bills (+10) over STEELERS: The Steelers should win this outright, but just not as easily as they handled the JV Browns last week. Ten points seems like an awful lot to give up, and when it’s teased to +16…

Saints (-4) over BUCS: Four picks and not one home team – might be a long week… I’m of the opinion that the Saints are not as good as they played last season, but they’re still the best team in the NFC South. And the Bucs, well, they’re not.

PANTHERS (-7) over Texans: This pick scares the hell out of me. Carolina looked good last week, but they are too inconsistent to depend on for a big cover every week. Houston looked fantastic, but they played against a pretty terrible Kansas City team. Once again, a pick that I’ll feel much better about when I tease it 6 points, one way or the other.

Falcons (+10.5) over JAGUARS: The Falcons’ running game is much, MUCH better than the Titans’. Jacksonville gave up 282 yards on the ground last week to Tennessee – anybody want to bet that Atlanta has a pretty nice day chewing up yardage? Or at least nice enough to speed the game up and keep the scores down?

Bengals (-7) over BROWNS: No matter how hard Browns fans try, Brady Quinn is not entering a game before Week 6 (and probably not until after the bye week). That said, Cincy played a horrible game against a very good Ravens’ defense, and still managed a W. I’m expecting a 350yard, 3TD game for Carson Palmer, and a nice day on the ground for Rudi Johnson once the Bengals build a lead.

Colts (-7.5) over TITANS: Vince Young cannot have under 100 yards passing against this Colts team and still expect to pick up a win. The rest of the Titans just are not good enough to pull that off. Not to mention, Indy has had an extra three days of practice and rest to get ready for this one.

Seahawks (-3) over CARDINALS: Seattle is the class of the NFC West, Arizona is the team everyone loves to complain about. Considering my past history gambling on games involving the Cardinals, lines like this terrify me. Once again, a pretty safe teaser at Seattle (+3).

LIONS (-3.5) over Vikings: I have zero confidence in either pick in this game. The Lions offense looked outstanding against a terrible Oakland team. The Vikings defense looked outstanding against a terrible Falcons team. Which one do you trust more? Translation: I’m not betting on this game; you do so at your own risk…

DOLPHINS (+4) over Cowboys: The Dolphins played the Redskins pretty well last week, and with the Cowboys defense depleted (especially up the middle with the loss of Jason Ferguson), the Dolphins should be able to keep this one close. They just need to keep Tony Romo under pressure all game long, which is harder than it sounds.

Jets (+10) over RAVENS: A lot of books have pulled this line while they wait to hear about Chad Pennington’s injury, but some still list it at 10 points. (UPDATE: Newsday reports that Kellen Clemens is starting over Pennington this week. All the more reason to bet on New York) Apparently, the odds makers weren’t watching the Ravens/Bengals game last week. There’s a decent chance the Raven’s couldn’t score 10 points in the entire game this week, let alone win a game by that margin.

Chiefs (+13) over BEARS: Bad Rex, Good Rex. Bad Rex, Good Rex. Flip a coin here guys – the Chiefs are terrible, but if Bad Rex steps on the field, the Bears aren’t covering two touchdowns.

BRONCOS (-10) over Raiders: Talk about parity in a division… the Chargers and Broncos look like legitimate 10+ win threats, while KC & Oakland both look to be fighting Cleveland for the #1 overall pick next spring.

PATRIOTS (-4) over Chargers: There’s a 50/50 shot that the Chargers have safety help for Randy Moss during pre-game stretching… Obviously, with this being the Sunday Night, Nationally-televised game, there will be little talk outside of the video camera scandal. The upshot is that it’s a home game, and I don’t see how the Gillette fans will let the pats lose this game. The downside is that if they do lose (and there’s a decent shot that the Chargers - with their talent and the “revenge” factor from last season’s playoffs - could pull off a big road win) all the coverage will be “they can’t win without a cameraman!”. Like I said above – this SUCKS.

Redskins (+7) over EAGLES: Clearly, Donovan McNabb isn’t healed from the ACL injury that cost him the second half of 2006. More importantly, Washington looked pretty good last week (albeit against a weak Miami team), while Philadelphia looked very pedestrian in what should have been a “gimme” game against Green Bay. I’m slowly reversing course in my Eagles-love from my NFL Preview – now they need to earn it back.

RECAP: 49ers / Packers / Bills / Saints / PANTHERS / Falcons / Bengals / Colts / Seahawks / LIONS / DOLPHINS / Jets / Chiefs / BRONCOS / PATRIOTS / Redskins

Lots of scary numbers out there this week, but if you look hard enough, there’s lots of money to be made, too.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 12:54 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week I: Part II

Hey, how's it going? Everybody enjoying the season so far? Wait, what do you mean you took my advice and bet a bundle on the Saints to cover a +6.5 point line last night? Seriously? You believed me? Hmmmm... So, uh, how much do I owe ya?

Well, I can't imagine too many people saw the complete dismantling of the New Orleans Saints coming, and even moreso after the score was tied 10-10 at the half. Just like the '06 AFC title game though, Indianapolis went into the locker room at halftime, made some adjustments, came back out and absolutely obliterated the team on the opposite sideline in the second half.

Let's see if I can get just a wee bit better with the other 15 picks this week. As always, the home team is in CAPS. These lines come from Bodog.com (which for some reason is now actually www.newbodog.com, but whatever), and are accurate as of 6:15pm Friday. Enjoy, and uh, save a little something in the kids' trust funds, just in case I'm not as good as I expect...


TEXANS (-3) over Chiefs: I have zero faith in the Chiefs right now. Their defense hasn't been good in years, their offense was pretty overrated before their star running back held out and skipped the preseason and they traded their #1 QB away... Plus I think the Texans have some serious sleeper potential this year.

Broncos (-3) over BILLS: Even though I think the Bills will make a run at double-digit wins, this won't be one of them. Denver, though flawed, should still be good enough to win a tough opening game on the road, and still cover the 3.

Steelers (-5) over BROWNS: I swear to God, I'm committing a homicide on a Friday during this NFL season. My employer has a policy to allow employees to "Show Your Steelers Pride" and wear Steelers shirts/jerseys to work every Friday (no jeans, t-shirts or sweatshirts though). My retinas are permanently scorched from what I saw today...

Titans (+7) over JAGUARS: Last season, I completely underestimated the Jaguars' defense in picking the Steelers to win in what I thought was the stupidest line of that week. This season, I'm getting it out of the way by taking the Titans in this game. Translation: I have no money on this pick.

RAMS (-1.5) over Panthers: Five picks, and only one underdog? Oh wait... that's right... Moving right along...

Eagles (-3) over PACKERS: No number of crazed cheeseheads in early September could make me believe that the Packers can cover that line. I've got a quasi-blind faith in Philadelphia this season, and until they do something to shake my belief (you know, like losing the opener to the Packers...) I'm riding them. Hopefully to a nice profit and a new car.

VIKINGS (-3) over Falcons: Here's the pick that's going to crush my hopes and dreams this week. Either the Falcons roll over all season long in the hopes of getting Bobby Petrino's boy-wonder Brian Brohm, or they play out of their minds and stomp all over the rest of the league. The fact that I willingly have to root for Tarvaris Jackson makes me less than comfortable, but on the plus side, there are three games I refuse to put money on this week: this one, the Titans/Jags, and...

JETS (+6.5) over Patriots: For obvious reasons. Let's be honest people - the Patriots defense is still pretty damned good. But Rodney Harrison & Richard Seymour are out of this game. Asante Samuel skipped all of camp and probably won't play his best football (if he plays at all), and the rest of the defensive stalwarts are going to pay the price. As much as I hate to admit it, the Jets were a playoff caliber team last season - this game should be close, if not an outright Jets win. I can hear Vinny giggling from two states away already as he prepares his message-board trash-talk for Monday morning...

REDSKINS (-3) over Dolphins: Since I've got the Dolphins pencilled in for 6 wins (not very good), and the Skins in for 9 (mediocre), I guess I should support the "better" of the two, right? Well that, plus the homefield advantage for Washington, and the lack of really any kind of legitimate offense from Miami.

SEAHAWKS (-6) over Bucs: This is a joke, right? No, seriously - there can't be one football fan north of the Florida/Georgia border that thinks the Bucs have any chance to keep this game within a touchdown. This is a typical "legacy" pick - everyone remembers the dominant defense the Bucs used to have, and figures that the game will never get out of hand. It will. Quickly.

CHARGERS (-6.5) over Bears: I wonder if a defending conference champion has ever opened as a bigger underdog... That would be interesting - anybody feel like doing the research? I certainly don't. When it comes down to it, the Chargers were the best team in the AFC (so by default, the NFL) last season. If I weren't such a homer-ific Patriots fan I would have liked to see a Chargers/Colts AFC Title Game. But alas, San Diego managed to give the game away and the rest is history.

COWBOYS (-6) over Giants: Two playoff teams that both look poised for a serious backslide into mediocrity. Let the Tom Coughlin farewell tour begin! Also, if you're thinking of betting on this one, you might as well tease the Cowboys, Seahawks, Chargers, and Steelers. Remember - safety first!

Ravens (+3) over BENGALS: Wow. The Ravens absolutely obliterated every team on the schedule last season, and they open the year as an underdog. This should be interesting - Cincy's defense is still basically a sieve in tiger stripes, but Baltimore's offense isn't exactly the type to capitalize on opportunities. That's the deciding factor here, as the Ravens' D should neutralize the Bengals' O.

RAIDERS (-2.5) over Lions: Apparently, the NFL wanted to get all the games with the least possible playoff implications off the schedule right away...

49ERS (-3) over Cardinals: ...How else can you explain these two games in the first weekend of the season?


Recap: TEXANS / Broncos / Steelers / Titans / RAMS / Eagles / VIKINGS / JETS / REDSKINS / SEAHAWKS / CHARGERS / COWBOYS / Ravens / RAIDERS / 49ERS

That's an awful lot of home teams, but I'm not worried - every team is uber-pumped to open the season at home. Should bode well for their chances.

As usual, I'll return Monday or Tuesday for a recap of the week's games. And pending my 9-5 schedule (which neither starts at 9 nor ends at 5), I might even live-blog the Monday night games.

Don't get your hopes up. Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 6:05 PM 5 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week I: Part I

This is the best time of the year for me. I love it. I look forward to the beginning of the NFL season with drooling anticipation every week from the end of the Super Bowl until Kickoff on the Thursday Night Spectacular. And I'm a bigger fan of baseball than I am of football.

But it's awful tough to turn a profit betting on baseball. Just ask Pete Rose.

Anyway, tomorrow night begins the 2007 NFL Season with the Saints visiting the Colts. It also begins my quest anew to pick NFL games at a .600 clip or better. In the 3+ years that I've kept my picks on this blog, I've gone 465-383-28, a .524 winning percentage. Sadly, my numbers have gone down steadily in the last three seasons when I've picked a full year (146-100-10 in '04, 135-112-10 in '05, and 128-122-6 last season, plus 56-49-3 in the games I picked during the end of 2003). Guess that means I'm headed for a below .500 season, right?

Nah. I'm feeling good. I've done my research, I've decided to stop picking based on what "should" happen, I'm just going with some combination of my gut and my head.

200 wins here I come!

Anyway, let's kick this off right with the pick for tomorrow's Opening Night game. Home team in CAPS; line from Bodog.com, accurate as of, oh, about 10 minutes ago.

Saints (+6.5) over COLTS: The simple logic behind this pick is that the Saints didn't lose much this offseason aside from Joe Horn. Reggie Bush has one more year of experience, and even if they played above their heads last year, they are still a pretty solid team. On the other hand, the Colts lost big pieces of both their lines, their #1 running back and some key pieces of their defensive backfield. This should be a shootout, and in that case I'm taking an underdog everytime. Whoever has the ball last wins.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 5:00 PM 1 comments

2007 NFL Preview - Part III

Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.

So… uh… here we go!

Today, the AFC South, North, and East. Click here for Part I of the Preview: NFC West & North – and click here for Part II: NFC South & East, and AFC West. Also a programming note; with the NFL season kicking off on Thursday, and with my actual day job kicking into high gear with our very own Opening Day on Tuesday, I probably won’t have a ton of time this week for my weekly NFL picks. I will probably post on Wednesday for Thursday’s Indy/New Orleans game, then come back on Friday for the weekend & Monday Night Football picks.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (11-5)

Tennessee Titans: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (9-7)

Houston Texans: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (8-8)

Jacksonville Jaguars: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (5-11)

This division has belonged to the Colts for far too long. There’s no reason that another team (*cough* Titans *cough*) couldn’t move up and take advantage of all of Indy’s losses this offseason. But the fact remains, Indy is still the class of the AFC South, and they’ve got the rings to prove it. (Note: I made a decision last week – I refuse to recognize the Colts’ Super Bowl victory last February. The guy who could have easily been the Super Bowl MVP, Dominic Rhodes, was found to be on PEDs a couple weeks later. He kinda had a big game in Miami (21 carries for 113 yards)… wonder if the steroids/supplements helped at all?)

Tennessee looks to be the team that has the best chance to build off of last season. They had an outside shot at the playoffs before the final week of the season in ’06, and with another year of experience Vince Young can only get better. As long as he avoids the Madden Curse. They could easily put it together and push the Colts. And they probably will make a good run towards a Wild Card spot. The only thing that scares me is the relative uncertainty of their backfield situation.

Houston made a couple major changes this offseason, both on the offensive side of the ball, and both likely to pay dividends almost immediately. Matt Schaub was wasting away on the Falcons’ bench behind Michael Vick; now he gets the chance to run a team for a full season. And after Domanick Davis’ lost season to injury in ’06, the running game suffered through a handful of starting running backs. The addition of Ahman Green could revitalize the Texans’ offense, though he isn’t making fans forget passing up Reggie Bush or Vince Young anytime soon…

(EDIT: This was completely rewritten after the Jags’ released Byron Leftwich this past weekend. I still can’t figure that move out…) Now that Jacksonville is counting on David Garrard to run the show… well… I’m not counting on much out of them this year. Not that I’m anti-Garrard – the guy can probably play, and can definitely move around well enough to generate some offense on his own. He’s about 70% the offensive threat that Vince Young is. The problem is the timing – the team has been working under the assumption that Byron Leftwich was their starter, and then all of a sudden, he’s not only not their starter, but he’s not even on the team. Seems a little sudden to me, is all. Maybe they’ll win 10. Maybe they’ll have the #1 overall pick in ’08. I’m leaning a little more toward the latter.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: ’06 Record (13-6), ’07 Prediction (14-2)

Pittsburgh Steelers: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (10-6)

Cincinnati Bengals: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (8-8)

Cleveland Browns: ’06 Record (4-12), ’07 Prediction (7-9)

Baltimore did nothing to get worse this offseason, and they got much, much better by bringing in Willis McGahee from the Buffalo Bills. If he doesn’t run for 1500 and 15+ TDs this season behind that line, I’ll be completely stunned. But unfortunately, they still haven’t addressed a nagging need at quarterback – Steve McNair isn’t getting any younger, and he was barely in the top half of NFL QBs last season in QB Rating (14^th of 32 with a rating of 82.5). But the defense is still dominant – a ridiculous 12.6 points allowed per game last season. Maybe they don’t need a QB after all…

In much the same way that people forget just how good the Eagles were before their QB got injured, the Steelers actually won a Super Bowl before their QB got injured. And yes, I freely admit that I’ve heard too much about the Steelers in the past four months. But the fact remains that even with a new coaching staff, the Steelers still have a very good young QB, a good running back, some pretty decent receivers, and a defense that has consistently been hard to score on. If they don’t at least push the Ravens for the division, they should be in the Wild Card hunt by late November.

The Bengals, much like the Ravens, did nothing to get worse in the offseason. Unfortunately, they did little to get better. They are without a very big deep threat in the passing game for the first half of the season while Chris Henry serves a suspension. And their defense couldn’t have more holes in it if they played with only nine on the field. For as good a QB as Carson Palmer is, he can’t fix all the problems this team has. They just don’t seem like the team that shocked the NFL a couple years back.

The Browns did a great job to start fixing their offensive ineptitude from the past few years. Of course, Brady Quinn held out of camp like an idiot, and let’s face it – the Browns were building for the future. The future is not now. They have holes at running back, wide receiver, and just about every position on defense. They’ve got a QB locked up for awhile, and the laid the cornerstone for a very good offensive line in Joe Thomas. Now they need to work on the rest of it.

AFC East

New England: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (13-3)

Buffalo Bills: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (10-6)

New York Jets: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (8-8)

Miami Dolphins: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (6-10)

Last season, the Jets shocked just about everyone not wearing a green fire helmet when they managed to win 10 games with a new head coach, no defined running game, and a questionable situation with quarterback injuries. This year, they’re not sneaking up on anybody – adding Thomas Jones was a great move, and letting him split carries with Leon Washington should keep both of them fresh throughout the year. But the fact remains – Chad Pennington has a questionable injury history, and the NY Media seems to love pushing Kellen Clemens into the starter’s role. Not to mention that they’ll be playing a 2^nd place schedule. They probably overachieved just a little last year, and should come back to Earth this season.

Buffalo is my surprise team this season – their defense has been pretty solid the past few seasons, and as much as people love to rip on him, JP Losman is quietly turning into a pretty good quarterback. They had to trade away Willis McGahee for future salary cap reasons, but grabbing Marshawn Lynch in the draft this year should ensure them a solid running game for the next few seasons. Or until Lynch starts complaining about his salary…

The Dolphins fixed their most pressing need by bringing in a proven veteran QB in Trent Green, and shipping out Daunte Culpepper. Problem is, they may have been counting on Ricky Williams’ return after his yearlong exile to Canada. Since there’s pretty much no chance he ever plays in the NFL again, they are relying on Ronnie Brown (and now Jesse Chatman?) and some type of renaissance from Chris Chambers & Marty Booker. At least the defense is still fearsome, but even they are getting older.

And finally, we come to my Patriots. (EDIT: The rest of this was rewritten after this weekend’s news that Rodney Harrison will be suspended four games and Richard Seymour has been placed on the PUP list until Week 6, and today’s cutting of Reche Caldwell. All of which blow big time.) They were the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl after completely rebuilding their offense, adding three wide receivers and a running back to a team that needed nothing more than to convert a short third down to advance to (and probably win) their fourth Super Bowl in six years. Ironic then, that the loss of two crucial members of their defense could be what costs them in the end. Some in the media had said The Patriots had a legitimate shot at a 16-0 season this year, if they could get past San Diego in Week 2, and the Colts just before the bye week in November. As it is, they shouldn’t have trouble scoring points. But for at least the first four to six weeks, they might not be able to stop any high octane offenses. Like San Diego. Or Cincinnati in Week 4. Or maybe even Dallas in Week 6. But once they’re healthy (if they’re all healthy at once), there might not be another loss on the schedule.

All the way through February.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, AFC, East, NFL, North, Preview, South

posted by Big D @ 10:46 PM 0 comments