2007 NFL Picks - Week 17
There's a serious problem with gambling on football in the final week of the season - more often than not, the games mean nothing. Looking at this week's schedule, there are exactly 6 of 16 games with legitimate bearing, either on the playoffs or on history.
So, basically, if you actually wager this week, it might be time to look into getting some help. And don't point fingers - I haven't had a dollar on a game since about Week 7. Not coincidentally, the same time that my picks started getting good again.
So when it comes to making picks on the games, it's basically a crapshoot. Which teams are going to sit their players, which teams just don't give a shit about the game, which players are more interested in the hot blonde in the front row than the hot route they're supposed to run. Essentially - take my advice at your own risk.
Lines from
Bodog.com, and accurate as of 7pm Saturday night. Home teams in CAPS. 6-9-1 last week for a season record of 118-113-12. Just hoping to stay over .500 from here on out, and start fresh in the playoffs...
GIANTS (+14) over Patriots: This game could go one of two ways - either the Pats blow the wheels out in the first half and just roll over the Giants, then sit everyone in the second half leading to a garbage cover, or it's close going to halftime, both teams keep the starters in until about the 4th, and it's (at most) a 13-point win. Both teams have just gotta hope for no injuries.
Bills (+8) over EAGLES: I'm sure there's a reason for this, but with two teams that aren't making the playoffs, I've got to believe that an 8-8 finish for Buffalo means a hell of a lot more than it does for Philadelphia.
BUCS (-3) over Panthers: In one of many "Worst possible scenarios" this week, the Bucs are sitting everybody to get ready for the Giants next week. Meaning there's a good chance this game finishes with a total of 10 points scored.
DOLPHINS (+3) over Bengals: There are 10 teams that can theoretically finish at 6-10, 7-9, or 8-8. All of them are fighting for nothing more than a draft spot, so I'll take the team that's already locked up the #1 overall pick. Anybody follow that logic?
PACKERS (-5.5) over Lions: It's like nobody wants the #1 overall seed in the NFC. The Cowboys had it, then choked to the Eagles. The Packers just had to beat the Bears & Lions, but coughed one up in Chicago last week. Not that it matters this year, but it would still be nice for someone to pretend like they want to win.
TEXANS (-6.5) over Jaguars: See Bills, Buffalo. The Texans have a lot more to gain in future momentum than the Jaguars would theoretically lose by slowing down a little before a physical Round One game in either San Diego or Pittsburgh.
BEARS (+1.5) over Saints: New Orleans still has something to play for. It might be the longest of long shots, but they've still got a chance. Of course, they have to win on the road, in the cold of Chicago. Not happening.
Seahawks (Pk) over FALCONS: Raise your hand if, at any point in the past 13 weeks, you thought this line would be a "Pick-'Em" less than 24 hours before kickoff without any major injuries to Seattle players... If your hand is up, you're lying.
49ers (+10) over BROWNS: Browns win, Niners cover. This game becomes meaningless if the Titans win at Indy later in the night, but in the quirk of all quirks if both Tennessee and Cleveland lose, Cleveland gets the playoff berth. Talk about backing into a playoff spot...
REDSKINS (-9) over Cowboys: Not only do the Redskins still have a lot to play for, but the Cowboys are sitting just about anybody who has started a game on offense in the first 15 weeks. By the way - I take back everything
I said about the Skins after Sean Taylor's death - they are playing with more motivation than any team I've seen in a long time.
Steelers (-3.5) over Ravens: I don't care how many players Pittsburgh sits, they're not losing to the Ravens. And they shouldn't have trouble covering 3.5 points. Baltimore is a lost team. They need help in at least three different positions, not counting Head Coach. And they look like they packed it in for the season with about 30 seconds to go in the Patriots' game.
Vikings (-3) over BRONCOS: I don't think I've correctly picked a Broncos game yet this season, so why start now, right? Just can't seem to figure these guys out.
Chargers (-9) over RAIDERS: San Diego is still playing for a chance to avoid Jacksonville in Round one (though Tennessee wouldn't be much easier). Although I've been calling for it all season, I actually feel bad for JaMarcus Russell having to make his first start under center this week. Tough way to learn kid - good luck.
Rams (+6) over CARDINALS: In yet another "who gives a crap game", offense should be on display in this one. Two teams with electric passing games and no semblance of a defense. Can't figure out why the O/U is only 48... seems a little low.
JETS (-6) over Chiefs: Might be Chad Pennington's final game as a Jet. Think the fans boo him off the field, y'know - for old time's sake?
COLTS (+4.5) over Titans: Just because the Colts are sitting Peyton Manning, and probably Joseph Addai & Reggie Wayne, it's not like the rest of th team is packing it in too. And if the Browns manage to choke away the game to the Niners, maybe the Titans get a little complacent...
RECAP: GIANTS / Bills / BUCS / DOLPHINS / PACKERS / TEXANS / BEARS / Seahawks / 49ers / REDSKINS / Steelers / Vikings / Chargers / Rams / JETS / COLTSJust hoping for no worse than 6-10 this week. Just do enough to stay over .500 for the season.
See you in the playoffs. Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week 15
Very quick picks today. Been busy and felt lousy this weekend. Sorry 'bout that.
Cardinals (+4) over SAINTSFalcons (+13) over BUCSDOLPHINS (+4) over RavensBROWNS (-5) over BillsPackers (-8) over RAMSJaguars (+3.5) over STEELERSJets (+21) over PATRIOTS (Pats win by 17... 20-3)
Seahawks (-8) over PANTHERSTitans (-4) over CHIEFSColts (-11) over RAIDERSCHARGERS (-10) over LionsEagles (+10) over COWBOYSRedskins (+6) over GIANTSVIKINGS (-11) over BearsThat's a lot of road favorites... and a ton of great teaser games (Arizona, Tampa, Cleveland, GB, Seattle, Indy, Chargers & Vikings... wow.)
Back with the real stuff next week.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week 14
Well, after a less than stellar 7-9
showing in Week 13, I'm looking for a rebound to boost my record back up to where it should be. I'm 93-92-11 for the year, including the loss on
last night's Bears/Redskins pick. Not my best week, but still above .500 for the season.
Let's keep it going.
As always with the picks, home teams are in ALL CAPS, and the lines are from
bodog.com, accurate as of 5:30 Friday night.
Panthers (+11) over JAGUARS: Boy do I want to take the Jags here. I just don't trust their offense enough yet to give up 11-points. This feels like another one of those "Jags' money line, Panthers on the spread" parlay bets.
Cowboys (-11.5) over LIONS: Let me ask a question - has a fan base ever lost faith in their team as fast as Lions' fans seem to be jumping off of the Detroit bandwagon? There's just a trail of bodies strewn all across downtown Motown of Lions' fans ripping off their throwback Barry Sanders jerseys.
BILLS (-7.5) over Dolphins: Almost too easy... and that actually kind of scares me. At least I can rely on the Dolphins to fold in a cold-weather December game.
Giants (+3) over EAGLES: Anybody else notice that it seems like the oddsmakers are the only people who have yet to realize the Eagles just aren't that good this year? They were 3-point favorites against the Seahawks last week too... I just don't get it.
PACKERS (-11) over Raiders: I've got no faith in the Raiders' defense to shut down the Packers' passing game - regardless of whether it's Favre or Rodgers under center. The Packers have too many weapons for the Raiders' defense to cover, not to mention Oakland's inability to stop the run.
Chargers (-1.5) over TITANS: I wrote on Wednesday that the Chargers seem to be figuring it all out at exactly the right time. Philip Rivers on the road in this game scares the bejesus out of me, but I think the Chargers' defense should be good enough to shut down Vince Young.
BENGALS (-7) over Rams: This line is pulled as of right now, but at last check it was up at -7. I'm interested to see just how effective the Bengals can be on offense against a very bad St. Louis defense - I saw a lot in last week's game to make me think that Cincy's offensive unit is in desperate need of a shakeup. And I don't think it's Chad - T.J. WhateverHisNameIs drops far too many passes and makes far too big a scene when the ball doesn't come his way. Especially for a #2 receiver.
Bucs (-3) over TEXANS: There's a distinct possibility that this game could start as Luke McCown vs. Sage Rosenfels... And people wonder why quarterback is the most important position on a football team?
SEAHAWKS (-7) over Cardinals: Is it just me, or does Seattle seem like the worst 8-4 team we've seen in a few years? And doesn't it seem like we're saying that every year? No matter this week - Kurt Warner likely won't have Larry Fitzgerald
or Anquan Boldin to throw to.
49ERS (+9) over Vikings: Just seems like there needs to be one "Wow" upset this week, and I'm really hoping it's not...
PATRIOTS (-10) over Steelers: This game actually worried me a lot more
before the Patriots' last two games, before they played so terribly against two clearly inferior opponents. Here's the thing - those games should have woken them up. The Eagles & Ravens aren't going anywhere this year, so the chance to knock off the Pats was the biggest thing left on their schedules. The Steelers have all but clinched a playoff appearance, so this game - while still important - might not mean as much to them. Plus, Anthony Smith felt the need to open his mouth. Probably not a good idea.
Browns (-3.5) over JETS: If last week's line
made no sense to me, this one has me absolutely perplexed. The Browns still have the inside track to the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, and the Jets have next week's dismantling in Foxboro to look forward to.
Chiefs (+7) over BRONCOS: Denver's still pretty bad, right? We've all figured this out by now, haven't we? I don't know, maybe it's just me. I still can't figure out how they beat the Steelers, although it makes me feel a little better about this week.
Colts (-10) over RAVENS: Talk about a letdown game... Think there's any chance the Ravens - or their fans, for that matter - show up for this one? They can't possibly have anything left in the tank for the Colts.
Saints (-4.5) over FALCONS: Too many injuries for this line to be listed anywhere, but Bodog hat it at -4.5 before they pulled it. Let's put it this way - I don't care how bad the Saints' defense is, the Falcons are starting Chris Redman at QB. The man who lost a starting job to Kyle Boller. Sorry - not buying into that one.
RECAP: Panthers / Cowboys / BILLS / Giants / PACKERS / Chargers / BENGALS / Bucs / SEAHWAKS / 49ERS / PATRIOTS / Browns / Chiefs / Colts / SaintsThat's it everyone. Just for the record, since I stopped putting my own money on these games, my record is 50-40-2. Not sure what to make of that, but...
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week 13 (Part One)
Less than two and a half hours before kickoff, I'm coming to you with the most up to date lines for tonight's games. And it has
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with the fact that the NFL has completely screwed up my posting schedule by having weekly Thursday games. I understand the Thanksgiving Day game. It's tradition. It's an American Institution. Blah blah blah... But why this week? Or next? Just because these two teams played last week, there's no reason they can't play Sunday.
Sorry, I'm just venting a little.
Also, the Thursday game messes up the weekly Rants & Ranks post, so that is coming tomorrow. At least we'll have some clarity on who the best team in the NFC is.
So without further ado (and by "ado", I mean "endless bitching and whining about inane topics that don't even involve the fact that 85% of America isn't even
eligible to watch tonight's game...") here's tonight's pick:
Packers (+7) over COWBOYS: I think the Cowboys get exposed tonight. Brett Favre will probably pass for about 350, 3 TDs and maybe a garbage pick. Dallas' pass defense is just that bad. Green Bay's defense has been better than advertised this season, and if there's one thing I've learned over the past four years of picking games it's this: There is NO REASON to ever bet against Brett Favre in a Prime Time game. None. He could be playing 1 vs. 11 (and for the last few years he has been), and I'd still take him to cover.
Back tomorrow with Rants, Ranks, and the rest of the picks.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week 11 (Part Two)
Banner day yesterday - a solid 2 out of 3! Hey, 2 outta 3 got me through college - it's certainly good enough for me in weekly picks. Let's see if we can get 2-for-3 the rest of the season!
A solid 10-5-1
last week to setup a nice run for the final five weeks of the season (wow, that looks suspiciously like... 2-out-of-3!), moves the overall record for the year to 75-74-11. Add in the
Thanksgiving Day picks, and we're rollin' baby - 77-75-11!
Onto this week's picks. Home teams in CAPS, lines from
Bodog.com and accurate as of 4:45pm Friday afternoon.
Titans (-1.5) over BENGALS: Very simply, the Titans are a playoff team. The Bengals look headed for a top-8 draft pick this season. Even after the poor showing the Titans had last week (way to really step up there on a national stage boys...), they should be able to handle the lowly Bengals.
JAGUARS (8.5) over Bills: Poor Buffalo. They looked like they were on a mission just a couple weeks ago, then they lost their only real threat on offense in Marshawn Lynch (one week after I traded him away in my big fantasy league, I might add...). Then they had themisfortune of running into a rested Patriots' team the week after the bye. Without Lynch again this week, they don't stand a chance of covering this line.
CHIEFS (-6) over Raiders: Tough to see Priest Holmes be forced out of the league after only two weeks back in the game. Well, tough unless you're like me and were able to trade him just before last week's games (straight up for a #1 QB, no less!). I'm not sure who's going tobe running the ball for the Chiefs this week, but against the Raiders, it really shouldn't matter all that much.
BROWNS (-3.5) over Texans: I'm actually a little torn on this one. The Texans are getting healthy at the right time, getting Matt Schaub & Andre Johnson back even though they're relying on Ron Dayne to run the ball. But the Browns might actually have the juice to pull off some type of miraculous Wild Card run this season, and to do it, they'll need to win games like this one.
Seahawks (-3) over RAMS: This line has been pulled from just about every major sportsbook, but at last look it was hovering around three. Unless the Seahawks lose both Matt Hasselbeck
and Shaun Alexander, they should be able to win and cover.
GIANTS (-7) over Vikings: Has anyone seen Plaxico Burress? I could've sworn he was just here like three weeks ago, now I can't seem to find him. If he's not back this week against the Vikes' deplorable passing defense, he may never return.
Saints (-3) over PANTHERS: Wow, Carolina looks awful. Not that the Saints look like world-beaters, but they've got to be able to win and cover this line, right? If not, we might as well just hand the division to the Bucs right now. By the way - look for Steve Smith to have a nice game against Jason David - Andre Johnson
torched him last week. Did I mention I also traded for Johnson before the game? God I look like a genius...
BUCS (-3) over Redskins: Hmmm. This is another tough call. The Bucs have looked good this year, doing jujst enough to win games, and with that division they're pretty much on cruise control through December. The Skins still have a legitimate shot at a Wild Card berth, but they'll need to get hot in a hurry.
49ers (+11) over CARDINALS: No idea. 11-points just seems like a ridiculous amount to give up when you're depending on the Arizona Cardinals. Even if it is the Niners offense. Oh by the way - I'd take the under (38) in this one. Just a hunch.
Broncos (+1) over BEARS: Sorry - the Bears lost to the Seahawks and didn't even keep it close. They've lost all form of respect from me. I don't care if they're playing a home game in December - they're not good enough to be favored over any AFC Teams whose names don't include "Miami" or "Dolphins". Even the Jets.
CHARGERS (-10) over Ravens: I don't feel good at all about giving up 10 points to the Ravens, especially when Philip Rivers is the quarterback I'm betting on. But it could be worse. I could be giving up...
PATRIOTS (-24) over Eagles: 24 points?!?! That's a joke, right? That's a friggin' college football line, a Michigan vs. Appalachin State line, a USC/Stanford line, ah... uh oh. Um... are we sure Donovan McNabb's not playing in this game? Do we have that in writing? I'll be honest with you - this might be the first week I take the Patriots and am actually nervous about them covering the spread.
STEELERS (-16.5) over Dolphins: Nice Monday Night game for all of America outside of Pittsburgh & Miami. No reason to watch past the first quarter, so we can all go to bed at a reasonable hour after the first day back from work following the holiday.
RECAP: Titans / JAGUARS / CHIEFS / BROWNS / Seahawks / GIANTS / Saints / BUCS / 49ers / Broncos / CHARGERS / PATRIOTS / STEELERSAnd on that note, I hope you all had a good holiday and have a good weekend. I'll be spending mine making the 12-hour drive back to Pittsburgh for work Monday morning.
I can't even begin to describe how much I am hating that idea already.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL - Week 11 Picks (Part one)
My apologies for the lack of a Rants & Ranks post this week. I was a little preoccupied. I was in Vegas. Probably not a good idea, after the week I had following blowing out a tire on my car. In fact, I blame that single event for screwing me up totally. I'll bring a couple stories from the trip to the table later in the week.
Real quick, before I go gorge on turkey and all the fixings, the picks for today's games:
Packers (-4) over LIONS: I'm quickly losing faith in the Lions and Jon Kitna's preseason 10-win prediction. They should still be good for 8, maybe 9. But 10 looks tougher and tougher. P.S. The Packers are pretty good right now.
COWBOYS (-14.5) over Jets: Talk about a letdown game. The Jets manage to pick off the Steelers, then get rewarded with a Thanksgiving Day, short week, road game, facing the second best team in the NFC and third best in the NFL (see how I'm working those missing ranks in here...). In other news, maybe 4-4 isn't out of the question for Kellen Clemens. By the way - I feel a lot better about a tease here than the full 14.5. Feels like a 13-point Dallas win to me.
FALCONS (+13) over Colts: I said it last week, I'll repeat it today - I'm not taking the Colts to cover a big line until I see all their weapons back on the field. They don't have the pieces on offense to generate quick scores, and they don't have the pieces on defense to force opposing teams into short three-and-out situations to hold their score down. 13 points, even to the Falcons, is too much.
RECAP: Packers / COWBOYS / FALCONSBack Friday with the Sunday picks.
Lata
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
Week 11 Picks
Early picks this week everybody. Tired of putting up the picks late Friday afternoon and having people e-mail me to complain that they didn't read them in time. Not that my picks are stellar this year - I think people are pissed once they realize we picked the same way and they're about to lose money.
Anyway, after my back to back runs of 9-4 in Week 8 and 8-5 in Week 9, I cam crashing back to Earth last weekend with a 6-8-1 showing. I was hoping for 8-6-1 to get to .500, but it didn't quite happen - the numbers on teh year currently sit at 65-69-10. Not dead yet, but with only 7 weeks left in the season, I'm not exactly sitting pretty either.
Maybe I'll just bet money lines from now on. Probably a whole lot easier anyway.
Onto this week's numbers - as always, lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 9am Thursday. Home teams are in CAPS.
Raiders (+5.5) over VIKINGS: So, the Vikings get blown away last week, suffering only the third shutout of the season (to the Packers no less!) and this week they're giving five and a half while still not having a viable quarterback or running back? How bad does Vegas think Oakland is?
EAGLES (-10.5) over Dolphins: I'm actually kind of interested to see this kid Beck in Miami. Considering that there really isn't much competition for the Patriots in the AFC East for the next couple of seasons, I'd like to see what they'll be up against in about 2011.
JAGUARS (-3) over Chargers: I can't make sense of the Chargers, and apparantely neither can Vegas. They're giving the Jags the customary 3-point homefield advantage, and nothing else. If the Chargers play like they did in the first half last week, this this is a major notch in San Diego's belt. But if they play like the second half against the Colts, the Jaguars will be atop the AFC South at the end of the day.
Browns (-3) over RAVENS: If the Ravens can't put up points on the Bengals defense, there's no way they're hanging in this game. The Browns are for real people, and you have no idea how weird it is to type that.
TEXANS (pk) over Saints: The Texans get Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson back for this game, just in time to light up the Saints bottom-feeding pass defense. I should know - I just traded for both of them this week.
Bucs (-3) over FALCONS: I know the Birds are making a push toward the top of the NFC South (?!?!), but the Bucs are stil lthe best team in that division. I think they come out fast and put this game away early. But it's the NFC - a 7-9 record for the Falcons should have them in line for a Wild Card...
Cardinals (+3.5) over BENGALS: I've seen nothing at all to make me think the Bengals should be favored the rest of this season. The defense is a seive. The offense had to settle for seven field goals last week against a vastly overrated Baltimore defensive unit. The Bengals are just plain bad.
LIONS (-3) over Giants: Only because the Lions are the home team. By the way - I played poker last week with a couple guys from Detroit (don't ask about the results... I still haven't stopped shaking). Now I understand why the Lions were underdogs last week - they are a completely different team on the road.
PACKERS (-10) over Panthers: Do we know who's starting for the Panthers yet? My point exactly...
Chiefs (+15.5) over COLTS: I know it's Brodie Croyle's first start. I know the game is in Indianapolis, and I know the Chiefs will probably have 5-8 false start penalties. But I also know the Colts are without their best receiver and best defensive lineman, and that the Chiefs should be able to run the ball pretty well and control the clock. If that's the case, the Colts won't have enough time on offense to build up a 16-point lead.
Steelers (-10) over JETS: No reason for this line to be under 14. Think Big Ben's had a nice run the past couple of weeks? Wait until this week and next when he gets the Jets and Dolphins.
Rams (-3) over 49ERS: How bad is it for San Francisco? St. Louis just won their first game of the year, and really the only game in which they've looked competetive for 60 minutes, and now they're a three point favorite on the road for a division game. Ouch.
Bears (+6) over SEAHAWKS: I'm not convinced about Seattle's abilities or Chicago's futility. I know Rex Grossman's back under center - maybe this time he wakes up and realizes how to be an NFL quarterback.
COWBOYS (-11) over Redskins: I was all set to take the Redskins and the Cowboys' money line. Even had the whole thing written out here. Then I remembered Sean Taylor is out, and there is nobody in the Washington secondary to slow down Terrell Owens and impede his path to dancing on the star.
Patriots (-16) over BILLS: If Marshawn Lynch was playing, I'd take the Bills to cover this line. But with the Pats' defense knowing they can force J.P. Losman to beat them... well, let's just say I don't see that happening.
Titans (+2) over BRONCOS: For as much as Denver loves to perform in prime time, nationally televised games... uh - so does Vince Young.
RECAP: Radiers / EAGLES / JAGUARS / Browns / TEXANS / Bucs / Cardinals / LIONS / PACKERS / Chiefs / Steelers / Rams / Bears / COWBOYS / Patriots / Titans
That's it. Back again next week with the Ranks. And maybe a good story or two...
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week Nine
We've officially reached the halfway point of the NFL Season (yes, I realize technically last week was the halfway point, being Week 9 of a 17 week season... let me finish making my point before you jump all over me). Every NFL Team has played at least eight games, or half of their schedule, and four teams have played nine.
Seems like a logical time for some snap judgements about the first half of the year, as well as some completely unreliable predictions about the final eight weeks of the season.
Looking Back...
... Chicago might have been the biggest fluke Super Bowl team of the last ten years, going back to the '98 Falcons...... If not for the final nine minutes last week, people all over the country would be talking about the Indianapolis Colts as a possible dynasty in the making. As it is, they're already putting out lines on the AFC Title Game Rematch (it's PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Colts if you're interested)...
... You know the league is in full-blown parity mode when not one, not two, but three divisions could be won by an 8-8 team. The NFC South & West, and the AFC West all have division leaders no better than 1-game over .500...... And the other five divisions are led by teams that are 9-0, 7-1, 7-1, 7-1, and 6-2...
... 10 teams are currently at .500 or within one game either way. 10 out of 32. Meaning that if the NFL has it's dream come true, 10 teams will finish at 8-8, and 11 others will finish on one side or another of the line. And that's not entirely impossible...Looking Ahead...
... There's no way the Lions, Chiefs, Panthers, Browns & Titans can remain in their respective division hunts much longer, is there?... On that same note, count me among the group that would love to see Brett Favre reach a Super Bowl this season, if only because he will most likely face New England and see what it feels like to be completely blown away by a far superior team on the biggest stage in sports.
... The AFC Playoffs will feature some combination of New England, Indy, Pittsburgh & San Diego in the top four spots. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion. Hell - The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win next week at Buffalo if the Bills also lose this week, which is pretty sick when you think about it.... Even in the Reggie Bush/Vince Young/Matt Leinart draft class, teams didn't look like as much of a lock for the Number one and two picks as Miami & St. Louis (a combined 0-16) do right now.
... But don't count the 49ers, Falcons, Raiders, Bengals, and - of course - the Jets out of that hunt.
OK, onto this week's picks. I’m riding something of a mini-wave the past two weeks, following up Week 8’s 9-4 showing with a solid 9-5 in Week 9. Though, to be fair, I could give myself for correctly predicting a 4-point Patriots’ win even though I chose to take them to cover a 6-point line. But I won’t.
And how about this – the 9-5 record last week beings me back up to just barely under .500 on the season at 59-61-9. Ignore the fact that I forgot to pick the Steelers/Ravens game on the blog – I’ve given myself credit for the win, since I had money on Pittsburgh (-10). Good enough for me.
Going into these picks, I actually checked lines multiple times during the week instead of once on Wednesday and again when I wrote the post. There’s a logical explanation for it – with the Patriots not playing, I’ve got no virtually guaranteed covers, so I thought I’d actually do my homework for once.
So, here goes. As always, home teams in CAPS, and all lines are from Bodog.com and accurate as of 9pm tonight.
(Click on photo for bigger size)
For only the third time in the history of this blog, I’m providing visual evidence to back up a point. Or, in this case, three points. Click that photo above and note the three lines that I circled on Monday night, just after they were released. Go ahead, I can wait…
Now, compare those to the current lines as of Friday night. Sometimes I wish I made bets early and often to take advantage of the oddsmakers’ mistakes.
Cowboys (-2.5) over GIANTS: The first time these teams met, the Cowboys blew New York completely off the field. Rumors started swirling about Tom Coughlin’s job security on the Giants’ sideline. Since then, New York has gone 6-1, completely decimating opponents with, of all things, a swarming defense. But not this week. Dallas is too strong, and has too many offensive weapons.
Lions (Pk) Over CARDINALS: I’ll be honest, I have absolutely no idea why the Lions aren’t favored by at least 1.5 here. I understand they have the worst defense in the league, and that it will catch up to them eventually. But it’s the Cardinals for Christ’s sake! It’s not like the Lions are traveling to the RCA Dome or the Razor – they’re heading for the desert, to play a 3-5 team!
Colts (-4) over CHARGERS: Wait a second… you’re telling me that I can take the Colts and Joseph Addai over a banged up Chargers team that just allowed almost 300 yards rushing to a rookie, and I only have to give up 4 points? Hmm… lemme think this one over for a second…
Now, before I continue… do any of those lines make sense to you? Does Vegas know something the rest of us don’t? You’ve got the best team in the NFC giving less than a field goal, a 6-2 team as a pick-‘em against a 3-5 team, and the second best team in the NFL (who easily could still be in the argument as the best team) playing against a team that has struggled just to stay at .500. I mean… wow.
As for the rest of the games…
TITANS (-4) over Jaguars: I’ve seen Quinn Gray look halfway decent as a starting QB, and I’ve seen Quinn Gray look like Quinn Gray as a starting QB. Let’s see which one shows up this week, or if the Jags’ simply put David Garrard out there on one and a half legs and hope for the best.
CHIEFS (-3) over Broncos: Can’t judge the Chiefs on last week’s home loss to the Packers. Green Bay is a team of destiny this season. Denver, however, is not. Chiefs win big, and Priest Holmes gives everyone another feel good story for this season.
Bills (-3) over DOLPHINS: At some point this season, Miami has to back into a win, don’t they? Hmmm… do the Dolphins play the Rams in ’07? That’d probably be their best chance.
Browns (+10) over STEELERS: Cleveland’s playing with a lot of confidence right now, and if Romeo Crennel is even half as smart of a coach as I suspect he is, he’s been studying the Steelers/Cardinals game tapes about 19 hours a day this week.
SAINTS (-11.5) over Rams: I can’t believe I’m actually not too worried about laying eleven and a half points to a team like St. Louis. Man they’ve fallen a long way. Even more shocking, I’m voluntarily sitting Torry Holt this week in favor of Anquan Boldin, Donald Driver & Greg Jennings. Perhaps there is a reason I haven’t won a fantasy football league in three seasons.
Falcons (+4) over PANTHERS: At least the Falcons know who their QB is going to be this week. He might not be a world beater, but at least the team has enough faith to hand him the keys to the car.
REDSKINS (-3) over Eagles: The Redskins are one of only two teams with a winning record that have given up more points then they’ve scored (Cleveland’s the other). That’s not going to translate to playoff success, and in that division it might not even translate to the playoffs at all. The Eagles need to get their first division win if they want any type of hope of backing into the second wild card spot. Don’t see it happening this week.
PACKERS (-6) over Vikings: When all you have is one offensive weapon, you’re not supposed to dominate games like the Vikings did last week. I’m still not sure if that speaks more to how great Adrian Peterson is going to be or how terrible the Chargers’ defense currently is, but I do know that the Packers will put ten in the box if they have to and force Minnesota to beat them through the air.
RAVENS (-3.5) over Bengals: Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year square off in what could end up as the ugliest AFC game of the season. Anybody want to make a pick on the over/under for combined turnovers in this game? I’ll set it at 6.5… and almost immediately take the over.
Bears (-3.5) over RAIDERS: Look on the bright side Raiders fans – another season like last year means another chance to complete botch the draft next year…
SEAHAWKS (-10) over 49ers: I listen to all the vitriol and hatred for the Patriots, a team that just three years ago was garnering universal praise for being the new “America’s Team”, for doing it the right way, for embodying team play… then I remember that New England holds the 49ers first round pick this year (currently #8 overall, but almost certain to be a top-5), and I smile.
RECAP: Cowboys / Lions / Colts / TITANS / CHIEFS / Bills / Browns / SAINTS / Falcons / REDSKINS / PACKERS / RAVENS / Bears / SEAHAWKS
Just looking for 8-6 or better this week. No need to be greedy. I‘ll take a .500 record after 10 weeks in today’s NFL.
Hell, it works for 1/3 of the teams themselves. It’s good enough for me.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week Nine
Hallelujah Holy Shit – Where’s the Tylenol? Was that a 9-4 record last week? More importantly – is that a 51-56-9 overall record after ½ of the season (and after being at 35-46-8 just two weeks ago? Maybe things are starting to turn around here folks…
Actually, let’s not get too excited. Although I managed to pick last week’s games at a 9-4 clip, I actually managed to find a way to parlay the Bears, Bucs and 49ers into every single one of my eight bets. Three of my four misses for the week, and they killed me. (Even I wouldn’t voluntarily put money on a game involving the Rams & Browns – that’s just suicide).
So, although it looked good in print, the end results were the same – another losing week. Guh.
But fear not – in my never-ending quest to put up the most accurate numbers and information for you, my loyal reader(s), I’ve waited until after midnight Friday night into Saturday to get the most up-to-date lines before posting. No, it wasn’t just that I completely forgot to post this six hours ago. Had nothing to do with it. I swear.
Whatever. Let’s do this.
As always, lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of… well… now – 12:30am on Saturday morning. Damn I need a hobby.
Home teams in CAPS.
Redskins (-4) over JETS: What a terrible way for Kellen Clemens to get his first NFL start. The team is already toast for the year – at 1-7, they’re 7 games back in the division after 8 games. Now they have to face a Washington defense that was already one of the meanest in the league before they got lit up for 52 points by the Patriots last week. Sean Taylor is going to look to decapitate someone in this game.
Packers (+2) over CHIEFS: Wait a minute… the Packers just went into Mile High, held their own against a middle of the road AFC West opponent, won the game in overtime… and now they’re an underdog again? I can understand the whole “back-to-back road games on a short week” argument… but the Packers actually seem to be halfway decent this year, while the Chiefs are about as confusing a team as exists in the NFL.
Cardinals (+3.5) over BUCS: Three straight road teams to cover. Strange start. Though it could be stranger – I could be picking every single road team to win outright. I’m just not that brave. Or that insane – really, either one applies.
TITANS (-4) over Panthers: I can’t make up my mind about this Titans team – they’ve got a good enough defense to hold every single opponent down when they’re locked in, but their offense is just so inconsistent that they are barely holding on for wins in games they should be winning by 14+. It’s working for them so far – I mean, they are 5-2 – but I can’t see this formula translating to more than 9 wins for the year. In the AFC that won’t get it done.
FALCONS (-3) over 49ers: It’s games like this that make me glad that there are 8 other early games to choose from to follow on the computer or at the bar. If this game doesn’t set offensive production in the NFL back by 20 years, nothing will. Let’s go out on a limb and say that the first team to double-digits wins.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Jaguars: This is a huge game for the Saints. Jacksonville has the second best defense that they’ve see this year, and they’re just about on par with the best defense in Tampa Bay (note the 1-point game between the two last week). If New Orleans can take this one, they’ve got 5 very winnable games in their next six, which should vault them back to the top of the NFC South. Jacksonville is in a tough stretch right now – Indy, @TB, @NO, @Tenn, SD. They’re 1-1 through the first two; if they can come out of that 3-2, they’ll just about clinch a wild card berth.
LIONS (-3) over Broncos: Boy, it’s nice to be able to say things like “I think the Lions have a legitimate shot this week”, and not immediately follow it with a roaring laugh. On the flip side of that… what happened to Denver? Weren’t they supposed to be a sleeper team, with a revamped secondary, a great receiving corps, and the yearly running back du-jour piling up stats?
BILLS (+1.5) over Bengals: I can’t believe I actually feel confident about this pick. Although, I’d feel a hell of a lot better if it wasn’t J.P. Losman under center in Buffalo. With as many poor QB situations as there are in the NFL right now, how has Drew Bledsoe not gotten at least a phone call? I mean, Jeff freakin’ George has gotten a phone call – Drew Bledsoe is at least as good as Jeff George at this point, isn’t he? Christ – Vinny Testaverde is not only playing, but winning football games.
Chargers (-7) over VIKINGS: Let’s see just how good this “new” Chargers team is. It’s almost like someone forgot to tell them the season had started until about Week Five or so.
BROWNS (-1.5) over Seahawks: I’m slowly beginning to dismiss the theory that’s floating around (alright, it’s only floating around this page) that the Seahawks are just playing possum right now and are actually a top-2 team in the NFC. They really haven’t looked that good in a game in about a month; until they look like a team that gives a crap, I’m not backing them.
Patriots @ COLTS: Uh… this one needs a little more space in a minute…
RAIDERS (-3) over Texans: I flipped a coin. Seriously – these are two teams playing some bad football right now. When it comes right down to it, I’m just flipping a coin for games like that. Same goes for the Niners/Falcons pick – two shitty teams playing a meaningless game. Flip a coin, and don’t put a cent on the game.
Cowboys (-3) over EAGLES: This might be the stupidest line of the week. The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC, and a top-3 team in the NFL right now. The Eagles have exactly one “good” win on their schedule – the blowout of the Lions in Week 3. Their coach has got to have other things on his mind right now. So they’re the home team with a vicious fan base – that does not mean that they are keeping this game within 3 points. Cowboys, by at least 10.
Now then…
Patriots (-6) @ COLTS: There are so many storylines floating around for this game, it’s ludicrous. The Clash of the Titans. Armageddon. Super Bowl 41-and-a-half. The Patriots punishing every team in their path this year. The Colts getting zero respect as defending champions. The 100% asinine “Good vs. Evil” debate about Tony Dungy vs. Bill Belichick. The weird Daylight Saving Time rules in Indiana (If the Colts were smart about this, they’d book the Patriots’ in hotel in a part of the state that is on Central time, so they’d lose a full hour when DST ends at 2AM Sunday morning – don’t forget to change your clocks!).
Basically what it comes down to is this – these are the two best teams in football, hands down. They are on a completely different plane from every other team. Even though after Sunday one of them will (most likely) have a loss in their record, they are still far better than the other “1-loss” teams in the NFL.
To plagiarize myself from a comment I left earlier this morning over on Shanoff’s blog: “I really see one of two things happening; 1) Pats' in a complete blow-out, payback for the AFC Title game type of situation, with a final in the 41-17 range, or... 2) Very, very close game, the type we'll be talking about and dissecting for a full week, but still Pats 37-35ish... Either way, both defenses are going to be beat up and tired, and look really bad. At least the Pats have a bye next week.”
Actually, that bye scares the crap out of me. Not only because it could kill the Patriots momentum if/when they take care of the Colts this week, but because it could give some of the players something to look forward to before final gun in Indy.
I don’t think it’ll happen, but it could.
But as for what will happen… the Pats will exorcise the demons from last years’ abysmal end to the season, and finish the job they couldn’t quite wrap up back in January. Just one more step on the road to history.
Final Score: Patriots 38, Colts 34
(For the record, I’m giving serious consideration to a parlay involving the Patriots’ money line and the Colts (+6)… I honestly think it could be that close.)
RECAP: Redskins / Packers / Cardinals / TITANS / FALCONS / SAINTS / LIONS / BILLS / Chargers / Browns / RAIDERS / Cowboys / Patriots
Armageddon begins in about 40 hours… I can’t wait.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week 8
Way to completely slack off there D. I've ignored everything not related to work, sleep, and the World Series since about Sunday night/Monday morning. That includes this blog, and my weekly rants/ranks post that was
supposed to be written and put up here Tuesday. Oops. For the record, let's get that out of the way right now, in abridged form:
The Fave 5
1. New England (7-0). Duh.
2. Indianapolis (7-0). Duh 2.0
3. Dallas (6-1). Best in the NFC.
4. Green Bay (5-1). A close second, but they need to run better.
5. Ney York Giants (5-2). Can't argue a 5-game winning streak.
The Foul 5
5. Atlanta (1-6). At least they kept it close.
4. San Francisco (2-4). Alex Smith returns. Should give them 2 more wins this year.
3. NY Jets (1-6). They've been close in most games. Just not close enough.
2. St. Louis (0-7). Starting QB & RB return Sunday. Rams' fans rejoice by raising expectations to
2 wins in '07.
1. Miami (0-7). No such luck in Miami. Starting QB & RB done for year. #1 WR traded away. #1 overall draft pick soon to follow.
And, after that little diversion, let's take a shot at the Week 8 lines. 7-6-1 in Week 7 (Holy crap - a winning week?) to raise the overall numbers up a tick to 42-52-9. As always, home teams in CAPS, and lines from
Bodog.com (via ESPN's Daily Line), and accurate as of 10:30am.
RAMS (+3) over Browns: I think that if the coaches say Steven Jackson is playing this game, then he's obviously as close to 100% as he's going to get. They wouldn't risk him in a lost season otherwise. I can see him shredding that Cleveland D for a big game.
DOLPHINS (+10) over Giants: I just don't know how oddsmakers can look at this game, look at the traevl to London, the jet lag, all the unknown factors, and
still make it a 10-point line. I know Miami's bad, but they can't possibly be
that bad, can they?
Eagles (-1) over VIKINGS: Donovan McNabb is due for a huge game. Think something along the lines of the Detroit debacle a few weeks back - Minnesota's pass defense is actually worse than the Lions... and everybody else for that matter. They rank 32 of 32 teams.
Colts (-7) over PANTHERS: Peyton Manning has
never beaten the Panthers. Ever. Hard to believe, I know. Of course, there was a time when Manning had never beaten the Belichick/Brady Patriots either. Speaking of which...
PATRIOTS (-17) over Redskins: By the time the Pats travel to Indy next week (on my birthday, no less!) the hype for this game will have taken on Bill Brasky proportions. "
I once saw Tom Brady and Peyton Manning combine for 247 touchdown passes... in the first quarter! Hand to God... To Brady & Manning!"BEARS (-5) over Lions: I don't know about any of you, but I'm riding Brian Griese's right shoulder as long as it will hold up. Considering he's got the Lions in Chicago this week, I'm feeling pretty good about my decision. Could the Bears somehow sneak back into Wild Card contention?
Steelers (-4) over BENGALS: With all the hype around the bengals' team chemistry (or lack thereof), they're either primed to step up big and crush a division opponent, or roll over and give the critics more fodder. Either way, the Steelers are still pissed about blowing that game in Denver last Sunday, and I can't blame them. That was a bad loss.
Raiders (+7.5) over TITANS: The Raiders just keep every game close, and the Titans might be without Vince Young again. Think they can kick 10 field goals this week? That might be what it takes. (By the way - for all the hype about Minnesota, New England, Baltimore & Chicago's defenses... Tennessee has the best rushing defense in the league right now. Too bad they can't stay off the field with that offense)
BUCS (-3.5) over Jaguars: Bodog has actually pulled this line, but every other major site has it a -3.5 for TB. With the Jaguars QB situation as bad as it is right now, the Bucs' defense should be able to stack the line and force Jacksonville to beat them through the air. Anyone who saw the Jax/Indy game last week knows that with the current crop of backup QB's in Jacksonville, that's just not a winning proposition.
Bills (+3) over JETS: Unless Clemens starts. Then I'll consider taking the Jets here. It's too bad - Pennington just never fully healed from those shoulder injuries. Not that he had the greatest arm before he got hurt, but still...
CHARGERS (-10) over Texans: Sentimental pick. If it's in San Diego, it's not even close. If it's somewhere else (Arizona, LA, or even... Vegas?) it's much close than people think.
49ERS (+3) over Saints: With Alex Smith back and Frank Gore healthy, the Niners should be able to do at least
some damage on offense through the porous New Orleans defense. The only question left is whether the Niners defense can keep the Saints' offense in check long enough to keep this game close.
Packers (+3) over BRONCOS: This is my measuring stick for AFC/NFC matchups this year. The Broncos are coming off a huge home win over the Steelers last week, while the Packers are coming off a bye. The Packers are a top-2 team inthe NFC, while the Broncos are, at best, 8th in the AFC. Let's see how this plays out before decalring the AFC completley superior to the NFC in every way.
RECAP: RAMS / DOLPHINS / Eagles / Colts / PATRIOTS / BEARS / Steelers / Raiders / BUCS / Bills / CHARGERS / 49ERS / PackersThat's it. Back to the real world.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week Seven
Well, at least Week 6 was better than Week 5. Of course, that’s kind of like saying that Pol Pot was a better person than Hitler.
Yes, I just referenced two genocidal maniacs in a post about NFL gambling. Judging by the recent readership numbers, I doubt I’ll be pissing off too many people.
I managed to pull out a 4-7-2 week of picks last week, following up my stellar 2-11-1 in Week Five. I’m in rough shape with the overall record (35-46-8), but still managed to pull out some nice, safe teasers last week to limit the damage.
I think I’ll stick to the “safe” bets from now on. They tend to give me fewer heart palpitations.
Here we go for Week Seven. Home teams in CAPS, and lines from bodog.com and accurate as of 5:30pm Friday.
REDSKINS (-8.5) over Cardinals: Tim Rattay, on the road, against a swarming defense. And yet, I have no confidence in the Redskins to cover this line. We’ll start off and call this a nice safe teaser – Redskins down to (-2.5)
SAINTS (-8) over Falcons: Boy did the Saints look good against the Seahawks last week or what? They had a dominating offense and held Seattle in check on the defensive side of the ball. If I had my choice, I’d tease them to (-2) and head to the bank.
BILLS (+3) over Ravens: I hate starting off with three straight home teams (don’t worry – it won’t be four), but I’ve got a feeling that two strong defenses should keep the scoring down in this one. I can see a 10-9 final score possible. Of course, I can see a 42-41 score as well. It’s the NFL – who the hell knows?
Patriots (-17) over DOLPHINS: I can’t remember a time that I’ve ever felt confident about giving 17+ points. As bad as Miami has looked this season, I’d feel a lot better about teasing this one – either way – for six points. This could get ugly, one way or the other.
GIANTS (-9) over 49ers: Two straight patsies for the Giants should help to solidify Tom Coughlin’s job security. At least for now. And a nice blowout home win could do wonders to push the teams’ confidence over the top and give them the push they need for the playoffs.
Bucs (+2.5) over LIONS: I have absolutely no faith in the Lions’ defense right now. More importantly, I believe this Bucs team might be the NFC Dark Horse to push the Cowboys and Packers for the right to lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They’ve got a stable QB, a solid defense, and might finally have some semblance of a running game.
Titans @ Texans: No site is offering a line for this game right now, pending the outcome of Vince Young’s injury. If he’s playing, don’t think there’s anyway the Titans lose – he’s got too much incentive to play well in Houston. If it’s Kerry Collins, I can’t imagine a situation where the Texans lose the game. In other words – screw the line here, bet the money line.
Chiefs (+3) over RAIDERS: Anybody else notice how JaMarcus Russell seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth? Is he still holding out? The Raiders did sign him, right? Yet nobody is clamoring for him to get into the lineup. Interesting…
Jets (+6.5) over BENGALS: In what should be an offensive shootout, I’m taking the points. Even if the team I’m supporting is sending out a QB with a weaker arm than mine. Maybe they’ll just run the ball a lot – either way, Cincy’s defense can’t stop anybody.
COWBOYS (-10) over Vikings: Look out for Tony Romo – not only did he get embarrassed the past two weeks, but the Vikings have the second worst pass defense in the NFL and just allowed 381 yards and 3 TDs to Brian Griese and the Bears. The Cowboys will have to use the pass to setup the run – the Vikes don’t let anyone run the ball.
EAGLES (-6) over Bears: Must-win game for both teams. The Eagles are getting back some key parts of their secondary this week, meaning it could be another long week for the Bears’ offense.
SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Rams: If the Seahawks can’t cover this line, I don’t see any situation under which I back them again this season. They’d have to be 20-point dogs to San Fran or St. Louis for me to even consider it. Yes, I’m still bitter that Seattle not only didn’t cover the (-6) at New Orleans last week, but didn’t even win outright; thereby blowing up a perfect teaser.
Steelers (-4) over BRONCOS: When was the last time the Broncos were a home underdog, and there wasn’t a single peep out of the Denver area to complain about it? Man the Rockies really have taken over that city. Oh by the way – Denver is without Javon Walker and probably Champ Bailey – in other words, hit the Steelers hard until that line jumps.
Colts (-3.5) over JAGUARS: The only reason I’m taking Indy here is that they are moderately healthy after coming off a bye week. Jacksonville has taken pride the past few seasons in hosting prime-time games against big time opponents and absolutely shutting them down. This could be one hell of a great game to watch, no matter who you’re rooting for (or betting on, as it were).
RECAP: REDSKINS / SAINTS / BILLS / Patriots / GIANTS / Bucs / Titans / Chiefs / Jets / COWBOYS / EAGLES / SEAHAWKS / Steelers / Colts
And, if anybody is interested, the safe teasers are as follows:
REDSKINS down to (-2.5)
Steelers down to (+2)
COWBOYS down to (-4)
Patriots down to (-11) or DOLPHINS up to (+23)
GIANTS down to (-3)
OK, I’m tired. Have a nice weekend, and let’s see if we can have at least a .500 week. I’m not greedy – that’s all I ask for.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week Six
Since I've written three times since
last week's disatrous post on the Week 5 NFL picks, I'll keep this short and sweet. I'm much worse at this than I thought. Or at least, I was last week. 2-11-1 is completely inexcuseable. That debacle dropped me to well below .500 on the year at 31-39-6 (.408). I've got a lot of work to do to get to my goal of a .600 winning percentage for the season.
As always, Home teams are in CAPS, all lines from
Bodoglife.com, and they are accurate as of, well, right about now. Mostly because I spent last night on the computer until 2AM, then suddenly remembered I'd forgotten to post this. Oops.
Bengals (-3) over CHIEFS: I would have felt a lot more comfortable about this pick before I watched the Bengals/Patriots Monday Night game. This is their first time on the field since that game, and I'm not sure if they're any better with the time off.
JAGUARS (-7) over Texans: Easy Teaser Game #1. Houston is falling off fast since their lightning fast start, and the Jags are quietly putting together a relatively good year. Right now, the AFC South could feasibly be sending 3 of 4 teams to the playoffs.
BROWNS (-4) over Dolphins: How fast did this Dolphins team lose it? I can't imagine any scenario under which I'd willingly put money on them, pretty much for the rest of the season.
Maybe when they play the Jets or Bills. Maybe.
BEARS (-5) over Vikings: Tough week for Ced Benson. Good week for Brian Griese. Minnesota doesn't let
anyone run the ball on them (ranked 1st in rushing defense), but they let
everyone pass on them (ranked 30th in pass defense). This should be a nice safe game for the Bears' defense, but I'm still making it Teaser Game #2 just in case.
Eagles (-3.5) over JETS: You know you're getting zero respect when you're hosting a 1-3 team, in one of the most hostile home stadiums in the NFL, and you're still
getting three and a half points. Is it Clemens time yet for the Jets? Wake me up when it is.
Rams (+10) over RAVENS: I just don't like that Ravens offense giving up 10-points to anyone, even a team as depleted as the Rams. Id feel better about a (-4) Teaser, but for purposes of a straight spread pick, 10 is too much.
Titans (+3) over BUCS: Tennessee has been relatively healthy thus far into the season, and while they're still struggling on offense, at least they have all their weapons. Plus they have a surprisingly good defense. The Bucs have that nastiness back on defense, but the offense seems to have vanished.
Redskins (+3) over PACKERS: Absolute coin flip. The Pack is giving the -3 only because they're the home team. Otherwise, it's a toss-up. I'm taking the team riding a big win, and that has recently had a bye week to get healthy over the team looking forward to a bye and that can't seem to run the ball.
CARDINALS (-4.5) over Panthers: Please, please,
please God let Vinny Testaverde start this game. Just for the sheer comedy alone. Besides, throwing to Steve Smith would be like having a shorter, louder (if that's possible) Keyshawn Johnson.
Patriots @ COWBOYS: Ya know what? Let's come back to this one...
Raiders (+10) over CHARGERS: I don't care about that 41-3 blowout last week - that was just a team blowing off a lot of anger. This Raiders team is sneaky good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull this one out, if not at least cover. Also this is Teaser Game #3.
SEAHAWKS (-7) over Saints: Not sure when the Saints will get win #1, but it ain't gonna be this week.
FALCONS (+3.5) over Giants: Nothing more than a gut feeling, but I think the Falcons could have a big day on offense. They just need their defense to hold up even a little bit.
Now... as for that "other" game...
Patriots (-6) over COWBOYS: First of all, I am wildly disappointed that this is only a 6-point line. I understand that the home team generally gets a field goal in the point spread. But even at Pats (-9), I'd be confident about this. The Cowboys nearly threw away a game to the Bills -
THE BILLS! - of all teams. Their coach willingly gave the Patriots bulletin board material (and then immediately backtracked - too late Wade!), and their defense has more holes than a Labyrinth board game. If you don't think the Pats find a way to win this game by
at least two scores, you're kidding yourself. And if you're still not confident enough, then tease them to a "Pick-Em" and be happy with the win.
RECAP: Bengals / JAGUARS / BROWNS / BEARS / Eagles / Rams / Titans / Redskins / CARDINALS / Raiders / SEAHAWKS / FALCONS / PatriotsAlso, for the record, this will be the first week where I have no monetary interest in any of the games. Bills to pay and all. So expect my picks to go about 11-2 on the week.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
2007 NFL Picks - Week Five
Real quickly, before the picks, a review of the AL preview I posted back in April. As I wrote in the comments of that post, I'll usually settle for getting the records corerct within 5 games. I think I nailed that pretty well on half the league. In some cases, I was pretty damned close (if not exactly right). In other cases (ahem... the White Sox to win the AL Central with 95 wins... whoops!) I wasn't quite as accurate. Also, thanks to Brian for compiling a definitive ranking of previews from our Blogger's Fantasy Baseball League. I didn't finish first, but I'm still pretty proud of how close I was – two teams exact, one team off by one game, three more off by only two….
Red Sox Predicted: 96-66 Actual finish: 96-66
Angels Predicted: 94-68 Actual finish: 94-68
Yankees Predicted: 93-69 Actual finish: 94-68
Tigers Predicted: 90-72 Actual finish: 88-64
Royals Predicted: 71-91 Actual finish: 69-93
D-Rays Predicted: 68-94 Actual finish: 66-96
We won't discuss the White Sox (missed by 23 games and five places in the division standings), A's (24), Twins (22), Mariners (12), Rangers (9) or Indians (only off by 8, but I had them 4th in the Central). So next year when you're considering an Over/Under bet on season wins (as I was when I was in Vegas in January), maybe take a look over here and see if it helps your decision. Or hurts. Either way, really.
Onto the Week Five picks. Had some better results in Week Four, enough to push me over .500 (woo hoo!), albeit barely. 8-6 last week to move to 29-28-5 for the season. hey, a winning week is a winning week, even if the Steelers cost me a lot of money (not necessarily on the bet, but on the projected winnings - 6 team parlay paying about 48-1 that only missed by the Steelers winning by a TD or more)
As always, home teams in CAPS, and the lines are from Bodog.com (via ESPN.com's Daily Line) and accurate as of about 10:30 this morning.
Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS: Well, since I’m convinced that the Rams are currently the worst team in the NFL, and considering that they are voluntarily starting Gus Frerotte this week, this seems like the logical pick. Even if it means that I have to trust the Cardinals. Here’s my dilemma – I have Matt Leinart in my “money” fantasy league. St. Louis is pretty much the worst passing defense in the league. But the Cardinals can’t settle on a QB. Is it worth the risk to start Leinart over my other choice – Jason Campbell?
PATRIOTS (-17) over Browns: I still hate giving up more than 2 TD’s in any game, but with this incarnation of the Patriots, I’m not nearly as worried about it. Of course, the whole “former coordinator against his old team” might apply here as well – we saw how well that worked out for the Steelers last week. Gonna be nice having Rodney Harrison back on the field as well – look for him to take someone’s head off early, just to “get back in the rhythm”.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Panthers: I hate this pick. I have no faith in either team to win this game. Basically, I’m picking the home team coming off a bye over the road team with the backup starting QB, even if that backup QB was once-upon-a-time the #1 overall pick in the draft.
GIANTS (-4) over Jets: I could make a lame joke about “picking the ‘home’ team”, but the truth is that I’ve got no idea what to make of the Jets thus far into the season. Maybe it’s a massive karmic boomerang from Mangini’s stoolie episode a month ago. Maybe they just overachieved last season and are reverting to form this week. Fact remains, the Jets have 1 win (over winless Miami), and have been outscored 103-72 in four games. The Giants haven’t exactly been world-beaters, but they’re coming off a good division win, and haven’t looked too bad in 3 of their 4 games this season.
Seahawks (+6.5) over STEELERS: Just because I’m still pissed at Pittsburgh. And because the Seahawks haven’t had a real opponent to shine against yet, and believe me – they still remember the Super Bowl.
Lions (+3.5) over REDSKINS: For the record, I’m starting Jason Campbell over Leinart. I’m sure you were all were waiting with baited breath for that information. The Lions look a lot like last year’s Saints – no one will take them seriously until about Week 14, when they’re sitting at around 9-3 and making plans for a home playoff game. Thanksgiving; Lions against the Packers for the lead in the division… who would’ve believed that during the offseason?
TEXANS (-6) over Dolphins: Boy the Dolphins got bad in a hurry. Not that they were Super Bowl contenders when the season started, but I don’t think anyone thought they’d be this bad. Guess the best option now is to play for the draft and hope to get a big-time piece to rebuild around for ’08. Problem is, should it be a QB, WR, or someone under the age of 30 to start taking over on defense?
TITANS (-8.5) over Falcons: Yes, Atlanta got their first win of the season last week. Congratulations. Savor the moment, but don’t get too used to it – it probably isn’t going to happen more than two or three more times this season. And it certainly ain’t happening this week.
CHIEFS (+2) over Jaguars: I can’t believe I’m making this pick. Three weeks ago, I was convinced that the Chiefs were the worst team in the league, and that the Jaguars were only slightly overrated. Now? I’m willing to concede that if the Chiefs’ offense can produce anything, the defense might be better than previously thought. Plus, I’ve got zero faith in the Jags’ ability to either move the ball on offense or stop the run on defense.
Bucs (+10) over COLTS: Too bad Cadillac is out for the year – this would be one of those renaissance weeks for him, and just good enough to convince fantasy owners that they didn’t waste a pick. The Bucs’ defense is almost back to their dominant days, and the offense is moving the ball effectively. What better team to pick apart the Colts’ “Tampa 2” defense than Tampa Bay? Besides, it’s going to be fun to see the contrasting coaching faces between Tony Dungy & Jon Gruden.
BRONCOS (-1) over Chargers: How many more weeks before the Chargers’ brass starts calling Marty Schottenheimer, trying to pitch the “we were just kidding about the whole ‘you’re fired’ thing”? Five? Three?
Ravens (-3.5) over 49ERS: Ladies and Gentlemen, your “All-Overrated Game” for 2007! Both teams had high expectations. Both teams look to have lost their starting QB for awhile. Both teams currently stink. At least I only picked one of them to win their division, while I had the other just slightly above .500
PACKERS (-3.5) over Bears: Lambeau Field, on the national Sunday Night Football game. Packers 4-0, Bears 1-3 (and crumbling fast). Sorry, I’m taking the Pack.
Cowboys (-11) over BILLS: Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders just said on a radio interview that this Dallas team is the 4th best team on their DVOA rankings since they began tracking teams in 1996. (For the record, the ’07 Patriots are #1 and the ’07 Colts are #12). Basically, we’re seeing something pretty damned impressive in terms of domination by a handful of teams. The only thing that scares the hell out of me here is the “trap game” factor – Dallas hosts New England next week, and somehow it’s not a Prime Time game. Tragic.
RECAP: Cardinals / PATRIOTS / SAINTS / GIANTS / Seahawks / Lions / TEXANS / TITANS / CHIEFS/ Bucs / BRONCOS / Ravens / PACKERS / Cowboys
See you again next week folks.
Lata.
Labels: Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks, Tags: 2007
