2007 NFL Season - Week 14 Rants & Ranks
Before jumping into this week's Rants & Ranks and the Thursday night pick, a quick sidebar about the MLB Winter Meetings - specifically, the rumored Johan Santana to the Red Sox deal.Look, I'm a Red Sox fan. A pom-pom waving, Yankee hating, die hahd Sawx fan. So if that colors my opinion of this trade, than so be it. It's not like I've ever tried to promote journalistic integrity on this blog, or ever pretended not to be swayed by my "fanhood", as ESPN360 likes to call it.
To me, Johan Santana has the best track record of any pitcher under 30 that has come on the market in the past five years. Sure, there's the lingering question about how much money he'll demand, about the possibility of some upcoming shoulder troubles (Pedro, anyone?), and the ever present question of just how he'd fare in the Boston sports climate - something this current regime has been very, very hit or miss in judging. But his numbers should speak for themselves - in a rotation with Josh Beckett for the next however many years, the Red Sox would instantly have the best 1-2 combo in the majors in probably the past 10 years. Yes - better than Pedro/Schilling. Better than Randy/Schilling. Better than pretty much anything going back to the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz days of the mid-90's.
The holdup for Boston fans seems to be the inclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury in the trade to the Twins. Three things to consider here, at least for me: 1) Ellsbury has played two months at the Major League level. Sure, he "proved" he can play in Boston. Just like Shane Spencer & Ricky Ledee "proved" they could handle New York with their cup of coffee during the Yankees' dynasty. 2) He had a couple insane months, and was a catalyst in leading the Red Sox to another World Series title. But he also faced just about every team only once, meaning pitchers didn't have much of a book on him yet. Anyone who thinks he's keeping up a .353 AVG, .903 OPS, and the rest of the numbers extracted over 162 games (about 80 runs, 160 hits, 30 doubles, 12 HR, 80 RBI and 40 SB) is fooling themselves. 3) The final argument is always - "But he's got so much potential!" Listen - give me proven talent over potential any day of the week. If I can get a 2-time Cy Young Award winner with the talent to be a 20-game winner as the anchor of a team like the Red Sox, and the biggest piece I'm giving up is a very highly touted prospect with the chance to be a multi-time All-Star over the course of his career, I'm taking the veteran and wishing the prospect all the luck in the world.
Call it the curse of Jeff Bagwell, and to a lesser extent Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, David Eckstein, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, and every other "prospect" that has ever been dealt away for a proven veteran, then actually panned out into a very good Major League Talent. No matter how the veteran performs over the period of time he's here, the fans will always pine for "what might have been".
Just remember: for every Bagwell, Ramirez & Varitek, there are fifty Tony Armas' and Carl Pavano's - the two "centerpiece" prospects Dan Duquette traded for some guy named Pedro about 10 years ago.
The other thing to consider is that it's not exactly like the Red Sox are turning into spendthrifts anytime soon. If they were cutting ticket prices, taking less money for their TV deal, and trying to pare the payroll by relying more on guy still on their original minor league deals, then it would make sense to hold onto guys like Ellsbury & Ramirez. But as long as the Sox are still big players on every marquis free agent to hit the market, it's a little disingenious to say that they need to hold on to prospects. They've got the money, they've got the farm system talent - why not field the best team possible, instead of the best possible team for the price?
And before you say it - yes, I'm the same person who wasn't a big fan of the Hanley Ramirez / Josh Beckett trade two years ago. I'll admit it - I was wrong. Hanley is a supreme talent, but if you hadn't noticed... Beckett & Lowell aren't too shabby either.
Onto the abridged Rants & Ranks - that little MLB sidebar took longer (and more words) than I thought...
1. New England (12-0): And... exhale. Even after the poor showings the last two weeks, they're still 11-point favorites against the Steelers as of this post. That's a lot of respect for a team whos offense has been cut in half the last two weeks, and who suddently seems to have forgotten how to stop the run.
2. Dallas (11-1): Pretty convincing win last week, and 10 days to prepare for Detroit this week. No reason to think they'll be any lower than the #2 spot next week either.
3. Indianapolis (10-2): There's the Colts team we've all come to expect every Sunday. Who the hell woke them up, anyway?
4. Steelers (9-3): Willie Parker terrifies me this weekend. What terrifies me more is that if they manage to win, I'm going to be in for some serious taunting for... oh, about ten months or so.
5. San Diego (7-5): Don't look now, but the Chargers have just about clinched the AFC West, and seem to be figuring it all out at exectly the right time. Even if Philip Rivers looks like a petulent three-year old who just got sent to a time-out.
Others receiving votes: Green Bay (Hope ten days is enough for Brett Favre, but if not, they should still handle Oakland with ease), Tampa Bay (talk about having a horseshoe up your ass... how the hell did they win that game?), Jacksonville (sooner or later, they've got to win one of those games with the Colts, and decisively).
5. NY Jets (3-9): Only because they plastered a team below them by 27 points last week. By the way - I love Simmons' idea of the Patriots deactivating the punter (very last paragraph) before next week's game in Gillette. If only...
4. Atlanta (3-9): What a terrible way to follow up this week's outstanding MNF game - Falcons/Saints next Monday night. Looks like I'll be hitting the bed (or the bottle) a little early that night...
3. St. Louis (3-9): Remember when it looked like a dogfight for the #1 overall pick between the Rams & Dolphins? Now St. Louis might fall out of the top five - they're just that good!
2. San Francisco (3-9): Sorry... I just can't stop giggling thinking about who the Patriots will be drafting #2 overall... or just how many picks they'll be stockpiling in trades. They might get enough to start their film production company up again.
1. Miami (0-12): Pretty self explanatory. Don't remember where I saw it, but last week some TV announcer was looking at the Pats' remaining schedule (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, @Miami, @ NY Giants), and started calling out "That'll be close... that's a 50-point game... that's a hundred pointer... and who knows about that last one." Dunno - just made me smile for a long time.
Others receiving votes: Oakland (see, I complained about it long enough, and finally Jamarcus Russell found the field), Cincinnati (team in turmoil... I say Marvin Lewis gets one more year), Washington (probably unfair, but I don't see them winning one of their final four games - Chicago, @ NYG, @Vikings, Dallas).
And finally, the pick in tomorrow's Thursday Night NFL Network Game of the Week - Line from Bodog.com and accurate as of 7:30pm tonight... And I already kind of gave it away.
Bears (+3) over REDSKINS: They can't rely on the emotion from last week. They can't rely on having time to recover from the physical game against the Bills. They certainly can't rely on their offense (5th fewest points in the NFC) and now, obviously, the defense is worse. Just don't see them pulling it out.
Back Friday with the weekend picks.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap
posted by Big D @ 6:47 PM
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