Beckett & Lowell... Don't do it!
Quick update today. I don’t usually post unless something major happens, but the hot rumor floating is pretty major, so here’s my thoughts on Josh Beckett & Mike Lowell to Boston for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez and another low-level prospect. It ain’t pretty, but here goes…
This is a terrible trade for Boston. Two top prospects for an young, unproven pitcher with an injury history worse than mine, who will be arbitration eligible next year, and an overpaid, under-producing third-baseman coming off of a career worst year (not coincidentally, the first year that steroids testing was implemented - remember, he came back from cancer to have a career best year a couple years back), plus the Sox are going to eat the entire $18M on that contract.
This is the kind of trade that haunts a team for decades. If Hanley Ramirez blossoms into an all-star, and Beckett does anything short of 18 wins and 200 K's with no DL trip, this trade sucks. Especially if Renteria is as bad as he was last season. Plus Kevin Youkilis now gets pushed back another two years unless he switches to first.
Remember, as Red Sox fans, all we've been hearing about for the past three years is "Hanley this and Hanley that...” that’s an awful lot of pressure to put on a kid like Beckett.
Think about it this way. You’re Josh Beckett (hopefully you won’t develop any blisters by scrolling along this webpage with your mouse). You were just acquired for a couple of prospects, including one regarded as the best prospect in the organization, and maybe in all of the minor leagues (or at least he was, according to Baseball America a year or two ago), and now you have to switch leagues from the easy one to the tough one and play in possibly the most demanding environment in all of baseball. Plus, you’ll be playing for a contract in a year, so don’t screw anything up. Don’t get hurt (code for “don’t push your limits, take it easy, etc.)
Beckett had one good postseason and is going to coast on that until he needs to play for a contract. Trust me on this one. Maybe he plays his ass off next year so he can skip arbitration and just get a contract from the Red Sox (Anyone who thinks he couldn’t command 5 years and $12M a year with one solid season in ’06 - considering the ’07 Free Agent pool, you’re kidding yourself). But I’m going on the record right now – this trade stinks.
And perhaps even more important than what this trade does to the farm system (Sanchez is a pretty highly valued prospect too), this essentially forces a Manny trade, because the extra $18M from Lowell's deal ($9M each year) means that the Red Sox are well over the self-imposed payroll limit. Let me ask you – unless Boston acquires Adam Dunn or Paul Konerko, do you feel comfortable with Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek hitting behind David Ortiz? Remember Barry Bonds’ walks record – it could be obliterated in 2006.
Here’s something else - the Reds are openly shopping Adam Dunn, AND they are desperate for middle infield help. Hanley Ramirez for Dunn, or Ramirez and another prospect for Dunn wouldn’t look so bad, since he can play first or left if Manny gets moved.
But the single most significant part of this trade? It demonstrates just how much (or little) power any new GM of this team is going to have. If the Red Sox are intent on showing how Larry Lucchino won’t be pulling the strings from his luxury box as GM Puppeteer, then this trade needed to wait until either Jim Bowden or Jim Beattie (or whoever actually accepts the job) was hired. Very simple.
If this trade fails, the new GM is going to unfairly get blamed, even though he didn’t make the deal. In fifteen years, if Hanley Ramirez (or Anibal Sanchez, or whoever this other kid is) turns out to be an 10-time All-Star, this goes down as the polar opposite of Heathcliff Slocumb for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek – this time, the Red Sox are the team desperate to make headlines and make a trade just for the sake of making a trade.
And as always, if Beckett ends up winning the Cy Young and Lowell hits .320 with 30 and 110 while they lead Boston to another World Series title (still feels weird to say "another"), I'll be the first to admit I was wrong.
Back tomorrow with early Week 12 picks and an update on this if anything new happens.
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 9:27 AM
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