NFL Picks - Week 10

NFL Picks – Week 10

This is it.

I can feel it coming.

The week when I go 11-3 or 12-2.

I have no doubt that I’ll be able to cruise through these picks, destroying handicappers worldwide along the way.

And do you know why I have no doubts about this?

Because I have no money. None. Zip. $3 cash on hand, $10 in the bank for a half tank of gas sometime next week. No way to cash in on my own abilities. So if you happen to use this site as a place to get your football gambling information, feel free to throw a little back my way when you’re living it up after Big D’s Week 10 picks…

As always, the lines are from ESPN.com’s Daily Line via SportsInteraction.com. And everything’s accurate as of 8:30AM today.

Patriots (-3) over Dolphins: Sure, the Dolphins have three wins against a couple of quality teams. Sure, they have a two-headed running back combo that should be able to shred the Seymour-less Patriots D-Line. But they still have Gus Frerotte at QB – he’s good for two picks and a fumble all by himself. This could be the game that right the Patriots’ ship for the second-half of the season.

GIANTS (-10) over Vikings: God I hate giving up 10 points. But Minnesota is that bad. Look for Tiki Barber to have a huge day - like, 145yds, 2TDs - and be overshadowed by Eli Manning’s 350-yard, 3TD performance. Although I’d still feel better if this line was teased to (-4).

Ravens (+6) over JAGUARS: Like I said last week, the Jags have this nasty little habit of playing to the level of their opposition. Scary thing is, the line has shifted two full points since Wednesday, from Jags (-8) to Jags (-6). Jacksonville should win the game, but it’ll be close.

Chiefs (+2) over BILLS: Wait a minute… Larry Johnson has the kind of game that he had last week, and suddenly handicappers are scared of the loss of Priest Holmes? Buffalo is in the bottom of the league in rushing defense – is there any chance that Johnson doesn’t ring up about a buck and a half?

49ers (+13) over BEARS: Again, only because I like the teaser (+19) in the line. San Fran’s got a relatively opportunistic defense, with 21 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and 7 INT’s so far this year. Alright, so they’re not the Steel Curtain. But the 2005 Bears aren’t exactly the offensive equivalent of the 1999 Rams…

LIONS (-4) over Cardinals: Nightmare game for gamblers worldwide. Who do you trust less: Joey Harrington at home or Kurt Warner/Josh McCown on the road? The only line I’d feel safe with in this game would be Cards (+10), and I still wouldn’t put the rent money on it…

Texans (+18) over COLTS: Only becase Indy should pull their starters mid third quarter. And because I can tease Houston to (+24), which is an obscene number for a pro football game. Here’s a question – with their schedule, when does Indy lose a game? They’ve got 4 remaining games that look like they could be losses (@ Cincy, PIT, @Jax, SD). Otherwise, the schedule is filled with Houston, Arizona, Tennessee and Seattle… The champagne might stay on ice for the 1972 Dolphins for a few more weeks…

RAIDERS (+3) over Denver: I know, Denver is supposedly the second or third best team in football right now, and they have beaten some good teams (NE, SD, Phily, Washington, Jax, and KC). But Oakland was riding a hot streak before coughing one up in KC last week – if you don’t think they’ll be fired up for this game, in Oakland, against their arch-nemesis… then you obviously are looking at the wrong website. Maybe you’d do better going here for awhile…

PANTHERS (-9) over Jets: Assuming Brooks Bollinger doesn’t pull another John Elway in the fourth quarter, this game shouldn’t be any less than a 13 or 14 point Carolina win. Of course, the real action will be on the sidelines, as every cameraman in America focuses on the TopCats Cheerleaders, hoping to catch the Director’s Cut of the next scandal in progress…

SEAHAWKS (-6) over Rams: As much as I’m looking forward to the return of Marc Bulger to salvage my fantasy season (with Bulger & T.O. out, I was floundering in the sea of mediocrity), Seattle has been proving me wrong all season. The division is almost theirs already – this win would just about solidify them as the 2005 NFC West Champions.

Redskins (-1.5) over BUCS: (Line from Bodog.com) Apparantely, every sportsbook has pulled this line off the board. OK. Well, Washington should win in a romp, so I’m comfortable with taking them at (-1.5), (-5) or (-15). Uh… maybe not (-15)…

Packers (+9) over FALCONS: Much like the Jets game a few weeks back, Michael Vick should find a way to keep his opponent close enough to drive fans and gamblers alike completely insane. I’ve got this as a 27-21 Falcons win, but only because Vick should toss a couple bad picks. If he’s having a good day, it’s a 10-point Atlanta win, minimum.

Browns (+8) over STEELERS: I’ve got no faith in Charlie Batch and his 65 passing yards per game. Nor do I have much faith in the Pittsburgh running game if they have to rely on Duce Staley for 35 carries. With Willie Parker hurt and Jerome Bettis questionable, I think Cleveland can keep this close, if not shock the Steelers completely.

EAGLES (-2) over Cowboys: OK, this is going to be a long one. Hold on…

n Five weeks ago, the Cowboys embarrassed the Eagles in Dallas. Won’t happen again.

n Jim Johnson is a master of disguising blitzes. Drew Bledsoe handles a good blitz about as well as I handle missing an all-you-can-eat-buffett by five minutes – we both curl up in a ball, fall to the ground, and shed a few tears.

n The Eagles need this game to have any chance of making the playoffs. If you don’t think that they’re going to throw every play in their book, both on offense and defense, at Dallas, you’re nuts.

n Without T.O., Phily is supposed to be a one-dimensional, passing-based team, only without a #1 receiver. Who else thinks they shake it up with the newly minted Brian Westbrook running the ball 25-30 times?

n After last week’s loss to the Redskins, the Eagles need to prove that they can win without T.O. And another divisional loss is not the statement they want to make.

n With the Giants looming on the horizon next week, the Eagles need to get emotionally fired up and mentally ready for that game. A big, big home win against longtime foe Dallas would accomplish exactly that.

n Bottom Line: Eagles. Big.

Recap: Patriots / GIANTS / Ravens / Chiefs / 49ers / LIONS / Texans / RAIDERS / PANTHERS / SEAHAWKS / Redskins / Packers / Browns / EAGLES

Best lines to tease +6 points:

Patriots (-3 to +3)

GIANTS (-10 to –4)

JAGUARS (-6 to Pick)

Chiefs (+2 to +8)

49ers (+13 to +19)

Texans (+18 to +24)

PANTHERS (-10 to –4)

Browns (+8 to +14)

I’m tellin’ ya, 12-2 this week. I can feel it.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 9:45 AM