NFL Week 7 Picks
Week 7 Picks
So... apparently there's still baseball being played? Sorry, I wasn't really aware of this. I've had a ridiculous week, between the dam in my city being on the edge of bursting, some 12-hour work days, and my appearance on the WSOP that never happened (though I haven't given up hope yet - I think I may be edited in to a feature with Phil Ivey later in the series. I mean, they can't discuss his Main Event without talking about how I took over half of his chips on Day One...).
But lo and behold, I turned on Fox the other night and, WOW! Baseball! I could’ve sworn the season ended a couple of weeks ago when Edgar Renteria grounded out, but I guess the playoffs continue, whether the Red Sox are involved or not.
In all truthfulness, I’ve been following the playoffs pretty religiously. The minute the Red Sox were eliminated, I became an Astros fan, if only for two weeks. I’ve always liked Roger Clemens, even if I haven’t always respected him. And guys like Bagwell and Biggio, I mean, how can you not be rooting for these guys?
So when the World Series opens tomorrow night in Chicago for the first time in 46 years, and an Astro steps into a World Series batter’s box for the first time ever, I’ll be watching.
OK, enough of that “good writing” crap. Onto this week’s picks. 6-7-1 last week (I’m taking credit for a push on the JAX/Pittsburgh game, since I correctly accounted for the injury report and subsequent shift to Jacksonville (-6) without Roethlisberger), putting me at 39-46-3 for the year. And I wonder why I’m not making any money…
Lines from ESPN.com’s Daily Line as of 8:30AM today. Home teams in CAPS.
Chiefs (+1) over DOLPHINS (game moved to Friday Night): Right off the bat, this game isn’t listed on ESPN.com’s Daily Lines. I got this from Bodog last night, as I was dumping everything I could get onto the Chiefs and parlaying them into about 17 different bets. As is the case with teams dealing with impending disasters (or recovering from them – see: New Orleans Saints), the teams usually have other things on their minds. The Chiefs have nothing to think about except crawling back towards the top of the AFC West. Chiefs – big.
VIKINGS (+2) over Packers: I really don’t want anything to do with this game. The Packers stink. The Vikings stink. Combined, they both suck. The Packers have an offense but no defense; the Vikings have a defense but no offense. Really – I just don’t know. And in situations like that, I’ll take a home underdog 99 times out of 100.
Chargers (+4) over EAGLES: Now this game, I’ve got a pretty good idea about. Although Philly’s coming off a bye week, they still have that little running-game issue to discuss. The Chargers are one of the best teams against the run this year. I think San Diego controls the clock, and in doing so, controls the game. It’s close, but unless Tomlinson gets hurt, the Chargers take it.
RAMS (-3) over Saints: I have no faith in New Orleans. Even though they were able to keep it close against Atlanta last week, they’re still not a very good team. St. Louis, without Marc Bulger, is mediocre at best. But do you trust a Saints team that has to rely on Aaron Brooks and Antowain Smith to get it done on offense? By the way; the Over/Under in this game is 47.5. Last week, the Rams allowed 45 and the Saints allowed 34. Which side of that O/U do you think I’ll be on?
REDSKINS (-13) over 49ers: I’m convinced, I’m just one year early with all of my predictions. This could be the year that Washington is resurrected. This could be the year that Joe Gibbs truly announces his return to the NFL. And this will be the week the ‘Skins blow out the 49ers.
TEXANS (+16) over Colts: While doing some research on this pick (hold for laughter), I noticed a disturbing trend with Indy – they’re the USC of the NFL. They keep getting off to slow starts, only holding a halftime lead of more than 7 points twice this season (Week 4 vs. Tennessee & Week 5 @SF). They’ve trailed at the half twice (Baltimore & St. Louis), and they were tied at zero vs. Jacksonville. They’re a second half team. In fact, they’ve only scored 21 first quarter points all season. So sure, they’re 6-0, and all of the wins are by 7 or more points (and the last three wins are by 21, 25, and 17). But I just think that this week, playing a weak opponent on the road, with the bye week and then a trip to Foxboro looming on the horizon, I mean, isn’t that the definition of a trap game? I don’t think Indy will really give a full effort, resting players (especially on defense) once they’ve got a decent lead. Colts win, but not by more than 14.
BENGALS (-1) over Steelers: OK, sorry for making you read all of that just to get a pick. Back to the short answers. Ready? The Steelers are hurt (Ben’s knee can’t be 100% yet, Ward is still sore). The Bengals are healthy (except for T.J. Houfsdhjlwrthuifdsnldeh). It’s in Cincinnati, and it’s a 1-point line for a reason. This will be a tough, physical game. The kind that the Bengals usually lose (see: Jacksonville and Chad Johnson’s temper-tantrum). But not this week.
BROWNS (-3) over Lions: Is the Joey Harrington experience (or is it experiment?) over yet? Can we get a definitive answer on this? Assuming Jeff Garcia isn’t on crutches, he needs to start this game. Trouble is, the Lions still don’t have enough weapons for him to be effective.
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Cowboys: It’s just about this time every season where I fall into the “Maybe the Seahawks really have it all put together this season” trap. Soon thereafter, they start doing everything possible to drive me crazy – dropping passes, getting into fights that land players in intensive care, you know, stuff like that. But for as much respect as I gave the Cowboys in the pre-season, I think that the loss of Flozell Adams is bigger than anyone imagines. Drew Bledsoe needs a strong offensive line to be effective, and that just opened up a gaping 340-pound hole…
CARDINALS (-4) over Titans: You have no idea how much I wish Dennis Green would name a starting QB before I commit fully to this pick. Kurt Warner under center would have me dumping money on Tennessee like water on a fire. But with Josh McCown as the starter, I’ve got a little more confidence in Arizona. Pac-Man Jones got burned by Chad Johnson last week – how will he respond to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald? It’ll be an ugly game, but Arizona takes it.
Broncos (+2) over GIANTS: If you thought New England’s secondary looked bad against the Broncos’ deep passing game, wait until you see New York. That’s all you need to know.
RAIDERS (-3) over Bills: Losing Randy Moss is a big blow, but is shouldn’t be enough to keep the Raiders from getting win #2 of the season. Look for Lamont Jordan to have a big game (naturally, since I have to play against him and LT in the big fantasy league this week).
BEARS (-1) over Ravens: Anthony Wright on the road, or Kyle Orton at home? Enough said. Actually, let me add this little rant, which has nothing to do with the game. You know that new Budweiser ad campaign, the “This is Budweiser, this is beer” jingle? Yeah, me too. Let me say this – if there were no repercussions, and the technology were available, I would go back in time with a copy of that jingle and play it over and over and over for the guy who wrote it, just so he could feel the torture that I’ve been going through this season. I’ve actually found myself driving in the car and suddenly breaking into “This is BEER!” God I hate that man…
Jets (+7) over FALCONS: Michael Vick will find a way to keep the Jets in this game. Plus, Curtis Martin should have another 100+ yard game this week, judging by how depleted Atlanta’s defense is.
Recap: Chiefs / VIKINGS / Chargers / RAMS / REDSKINS / TEXANS / BENGALS / BROWNS / SEAHAWKS / CARDINALS / Broncos / RAIDERS / BEARS / Jets
Geez, last week I only had three home teams, this week only four road teams. I can’t get a consistent feel for this season, at all.
Finally, a Link of the Week:
So, my friend Tex likes to proclaim that he is a lifelong Astros fan, since he comes from Austin, and is closer to Houston that the Rangers in Arlington. After Lance Berkman’s 7th inning homerun in Game 5 of the NLCS, I sent him and Instant Message that read, simply “Welcome to the World Series”. Oops.
But after the Astros finally clinched their World Series berth, Tex celebrated by posting an away message for the entire world to see (and mock). You can see it here, along with my response.
I’ll leave you with that.
Until next week, lata.
posted by Big D @ 9:35 AM
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