NFL Picks - Week 2
NFL Picks - Week 2
Before I get into this week’s picks, I have to mention two things that happened last night, if only because I have absolutely no idea how to react to them.
1) Gabe Kapler ruptured his Achilles’ tendon rounding second base last night… on a home run. I was watching the game as it happened, and the first thing I thought was “Damn. I thought only I got injured in stupid ways like that”. That thought was quickly followed by “Wow, I wonder how many of my Yankees’ fan friends are going to get on me for this one…” Surprisingly, none (yet). Anyway, Gabe’s done for the year, meaning the Sox are short their best reserve player. This should make the rest of September a little more nail-biting…
2) While talking with my mother last night, we happened on the topic of reality TV (I told her that I thought the “special guest Survivors” for the newest installment of CBS’ “Survivor: 11” were going to be Boston Rob & Amber, which would just be painful at this point. It’s not. According to multiple spoiler websites, it’s two people from last season…yes; I research the things I write… Maybe too much.) Anyway, we were discussing reality TV, when she blurted out “You know what show I really liked? That ‘Tommy Lee Goes to College’”. Yes. My mother, the mild-mannered, conservative, elementary school nurse, was a big fan of “Tommy Lee Goes to College”. She recounted in great detail half of the episodes and plot lines, everything from Tommy Lee starting his own fraternity to trying out for the University of Nebraska Marching Band. My jaw still hasn’t come off the floor.
So… uh... how about that local sports team, eh? As you can see, after that little revelation about my mother’s television viewing habits, I’m not really ready to speak coherently for awhile… let’s just make some picks.
As always, home teams in CAPS. Lines from ESPN.com via SportsInteraction.com are accurate as of 9AM this morning. And, for the record, if anyone is interested in using the same sports book that I do, it’s Bodog.com. If you would like an extra bonus, feel free to use me as a referral (Acct: #359545). They’ve got some pretty decent deposit bonuses (20% for another week, 10% after that), as well as friendly parlay rules (ties aren’t losses – absolute godsend).
OK, I’m looking to improve on last week’s 9-7. Luckily, this week’s lines look like they’ll be friendly…
Lions (-1.5) over BEARS – O/U (33): OK, just because the Bears’ offense is anemic doesn’t justify that 33-point Over/Under. Absolutely no reason for that. The Lions should be able to put up 24-27 on their own this week, even on the road, against a solid defense. You can’t tell me that Chicago can’t manage at least 10 points against the Lions… Then again, Brett Favre was held to 3 points last week.
BENGALS (-3) over Vikings – O/U (47.5): I’ve lost all faith in NFC teams against the AFC. I don’t even think it matters who wins the NFC Title game this year – the Pats/Colts/Steelers/Ravens will handle them in the Super Bowl. As for this game, well if it was indoors I’d give Minnesota a little more respect. But last week was U-G-L-Y. This is an early-season “prove it” game for both teams, and I think Cincy wants it more.
Ravens (-4) over TITANS – O/U (37): Now this Over/Under is a little more sensible, considering the offenses involved. The Ravens made a fool of me last week, so naturally I’m sticking with them this week. All I can say is this – Kyle Boller better get healthy soon, because this offense was scary bad before he got hurt. It’s getting close to Wes Craven territory now with Anthony Wright.
Jaguars (+9) over COLTS – O/U (46): You don’t know how much I want to take the Colts in this game, simply because it’s a home game. But I’ve got a ton of faith in Jacksonville this year. I survived the Week 1 Eliminator simply because I took them instead of the Rams like the rest of the world. I think Indy scores big, but I just don’t think they run away with it. The Jags have the weapons to hang with Indy on offense, and they’ve got a better defense. This one will be closer than people (especially handicappers) think.
I pause here to make a quick recommendation to anyone reading this. Do not, repeat: DO NOT, drink a Cran-Apple-Raspberry juice drink immediately after drinking 24 ounces of Dunkin’ Donuts coffee at 9AM. It is a taste experience that should never happen to anyone. In fact, let’s pretend that I didn’t just do that. Ugh…
Niners (+13.5) over EAGLES – O/U (41): OK, you know what, I’m reserving judgment on this game. Most sports books have pulled the line until Sunday morning, when McNabb’s injury status becomes clearer. Personally, I think the Niners can cover either way (teams always get that garbage TD just to make it interesting). But without a healthy McNabb, forget it – it’s a 6 point Phily win at most. In fact, if it turns out that McNabb’s sitting for this game, I’d be stunned to see any book release this line above 6.
Bills (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS – O/U (35.5): Two good defenses, two mediocre offenses. Yeah, that O/U looks about right. I’d have said about 37 or 38, but close enough. I like Buffalo’s early season schedule a lot – this looks like one of their toughest games, and that’s not saying much. If they get a little momentum, they could end up sneaking away with 10 wins and an outside shot at a wild card.
Patriots (-3.5) over PANTHERS – O/U (43.5): This game scares me. In fact, I’m not putting a dime on it. The Pats obviously have history on their side, and they are the better team. But Carolina cannot open the season 0-2, at home, and have any realistic shot of making the playoffs. Just not going to happen. Even with that in mind, I can’t pick against New England until someone beats them. Period.
Steelers (-6.5) over TEXANS – O/U (38.5): Houston is in trouble – look for Dom Capers to get put squarely on the hot seat by about week 7. The Steelers are not exactly a team to be playing when you’re trying to get your offense back in sync. Maybe next week, when Houston faces, uh, the bye week. They’ll probably only open as 2-point ‘dogs for that one…
Rams (+1) over CARDINALS – O/U (44.5): I’m officially jumping ship from the Cardinals’ bandwagon. Like I said in my NFL Preview, they’re this year’s Lions – way too many expectations, leading to a complete and utter failure of a season – even if they win 7 or 8 games. It’s scary to think that, right now, the 49ers lead the NFC West and hold the tiebreaker over St. Louis…
Falcons (Pk) over SEAHAWKS – O/U (41.5): What a tough week for Atlanta CB Kevin Mathis. First, he picks a fight with Eagles LB Jeremiah Trotter and gets tossed before the MNF game even starts. Then the league hands him a $10,000 fine for the fight. And yesterday in practice, he landed awkwardly and tore three ligaments in his knee that could end his career. I mean, what else could go wrong for this guy, short of a gigantic can of “Milwaukee’s Best” beer falling from the sky and crushing him?
Chargers (+3) over BRONCOS – O/U (45): Everyone seems so eager to dismiss the Chargers as one-year wonders. And after last week, I might agree. But they played a vastly improved Dallas team, and they had their #1 receiving threat (Antonio Gates) on the suspended list. Admittedly, that was asinine. You want to send him a message for holding out? Fine him a week’s pay. But keep him on the field. This week, they play a terrible Denver team coming off a blowout loss to the Dolphins. And the Broncos are favored? Are you kidding?
Browns (+6.5) over PACKERS – O/U (41): If my friend Chris actually ever read this blog, he’d probably be killing me for picking against the Pack two straight weeks. I think they’ll win this game outright, but not by more than 6 points. Plus, that Over/Under is waaaaay too low for two teams with exactly zero defense between them. This would be a nice parlay option. You know, if betting on football were actually legal or anything…
Dolphins (+6) over JETS – O/U (37): I have nothing to add to the discussion of how horrible Chad Pennington looked against the Chiefs last week. That said, I don’t think he’ll be the reason that the Jets lose this game. I think Ronnie Brown will run up a storm against a Jets’ defensive line that had more holes than, well, this is a family column, so let’s just say that they looked really, really bad last week.
Chiefs (-1.5) over RAIDERS – O/U (53.5): There it is! The obligatory 50+ O/U for the week! In the first two weeks of the year, there have been two 50+ Over/Under lines. Both involved the Raiders (@NE – O/U was 50 last week… ended up as a push). This game should surpass the 60-point mark, unless that Chiefs’ defensive performance from last week was more about them being good than about the Jets being very, very bad.
Giants (-3.5) over SAINTS – O/U (44): I know, it’s in New York. But the Saints are still technically the “home” team. Doesn’t matter. I hate picking against New Orleans at all this year, but I have to pick with my brain, not my heart. Of course, that means the Saints will probably win by 10, since we all know I’m completely brain-dead.
COWBOYS (-6) over Redskins – O/U (36): 36? Really? Not much faith in Dallas repeating last week’s performance, eh? Well, even if the O/U looks bad, the line should look nice. The Redskins, although gifted defensively, have already changed Quarterbacks (Mark Brunell is the starter for Monday), and they have rookie Jason Campbell just waiting to step in once the season is completely lost. You know, by about Week 6.
Recap: Lions / BENGALS / Ravens / Jaguars / Niners / Bills / Patriots / Steelers / Rams / Falcons / Chargers / Browns / Dolphins / Chiefs / Giants / COWBOYS
Holy hell. Did I just pick 14 road teams? Oh, no, only 13 with one “road” team playing at home. That’s much better.
Six ‘home” underdogs this week, including the Saints. That’s downright scary. And I picked against all of them. Oh, I’m suddenly not feeling very good. Must be that damned Cran-Apple-Raspberry juice plus coffee experience. I gotta go.
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 9:55 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home