2005 NFL Season - Week 1 Picks

2005 NFL Season - Week 1

Wait a minute; I’m supposed to write about football right now? Are you kidding me?

Aside from the obvious insensitivity of talking sports during the recovery period from one of the worst natural disasters in this country’s history, I (like many of you, I’m sure) have my own problems cropping up from this past weekend that could inhibit my ability to pick football games.

I just spent four insane days on the Jersey Shore, full of non-stop drinking, yelling, relaxing, gambling, and general “hanging-out” time with a good portion of my closest college friends. I’m still not recovered – I am forced to speak with hand signals right now because my voice hasn’t recovered.

On the drive home from Jersey, while stepping out to stretch my legs at a rest area, I slipped and rolled my ankle pretty badly. It’s the size of an orange right now. Believe me, ankles are not something you can live without.

Upon arriving home, I found out that my dog Tucker had decided he was pissed about something, and chose to take out his frustrations by eating a pair of my new roommate’s socks. He spit one back out. The other one got lodged in his stomach for five days until I got home. After six hours of surgery and three thousand dollars to remove a good chunk of his intestines, he’s at home waiting for the anesthesia to wear off.

And I’m supposed to worry about football?

Fine. But I take absolutely zero responsibility if these picks are lousy this week.

Last season, I picked all 256 NFL regular season games for the first time in my life. I was able to succeed at a .570 clip, going 146-100-10. I’m hoping to jump to at least .625 (160 wins) this season. I’m also going to change up my standard formula a little bit. I’m going to list the lines and the Over/Under numbers for each game, making parlay information a little easier…

As always, these lines are from ESPN.com (via SportsInteraction.com), and they were taken at about 9AM this morning. Home teams are in all CAPS, and away we go:

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Raiders – O/U (50): Well, if you’ve been following this blog since it started (2 years this October - WOW!), then you know of my aversion to picking games involving the “hometown team”. For me, that’s the Patriots. For the past couple of seasons, that’s been even more true in the home opener, because of the spectacle that the NFL has produced at Gillette Stadium to kick off their regular season. And this year, with everything going on across the country right now, this game is almost an afterthought. I’m keeping it simple – pick the 2-time defending World Champion home team and don’t worry about the points. Although I might take a hard look at that Under.

BILLS (-5.5) over Texans – O/U (38.5): This line has already jumped a point and a half since Monday (Opened at Buffalo –4). As much as I think Buffalo is very overrated this season, I also think Houston is a terrible team. 5.5 isn’t a lot of points to give up, especially when it’s in a home-opener and your opponent has a mediocre defense and a very young offense. 38.5 actually seems just about right here for the score. Let’s say… Under.

Bengals (-3.5) over BROWNS – O/U (44): Considering the defenses involved, that O/U is a lot lower than I expected. Take the Over as quickly as you can. As for the game, well Cleveland is flat out awful. It’s going to be a very long season for Romeo and the Browns. Maybe next year with a healthy Kellen Winslow and yet another top-5 draft pick (Matt Leinart, anyone?) they can make a move in the AFC. But not yet.

Jets (+3) over CHIEFS – O/U (47.5): I’m not totally sold on the Chiefs defense yet. And while they still have one of the most powerful offenses in the league, the Jets should be able to exploit KC’s defensive holes enough to win the game. Even is it does have to be 48-42.

DOLPHINS (+4.5) over Broncos – O/U (38.5): Two teams without the ability to score. Miami should be able to run crazy against Denver’s D-Line. Let’s put it this way – I had a fantasy draft last weekend where I got Edgerrin James and Curtis Martin, and I’m giving serious consideration to starting Ronnie Brown over The Edge. What’s that tell you about Denver?

VIKINGS (-6) over Bucs – O/U (43): The Bucs’ defense is getting older in a hurry. And while Cadillac Williams will certainly give the offense a boost, I don’t think they have any way to stop the Vikes’ offense. This should be a blowout (think, 37-13 –ish), and it’s the only game with a spread over 5 points that I’m real confident about in Week One.

STEELERS (-7) over Titans – O/U (40): Well, I’m taking Pittsburgh, but I hate that line. Seven points in an opening game that isn’t something like Eagles vs. Bears or Patriots vs. Raiders (oops, hold that thought) seems a little bit crazy. Tennessee’s defense just isn’t there yet, and while Pittsburgh’s offense will struggle, they should be able to put up enough points to hold the Titans down.

Bears (+5.5) over REDSKINS – O/U (33): The fact that the O/U on this game, with these two offenses, is anything over about 6 amazes me. After writing my NFL Preview, I started re-evaluating the Bears. I like Kyle Orton, really, I do. In fact, I would not be surprised to see the Bears hop over the Packers to be third in the NFC North, and maybe even give the Lions a serious run for second. In any event, don’t be shocked if the Bears win this game outright, even though it’s in D.C.

PANTHERS (-7) over Saints – O/U (45): It’s almost unfair to make the Saints play this game, but the show must go on. Again, let’s just keep it simple – before the hurricane, New Orleans wasn’t a very good team. After it, they’re still not a very good team, now they just have a lot more on their minds. Carolina is very good. Take the Panthers, take the Under, and cheer like hell for the boys from the bayou.

JAGUARS (-3) over Seahawks – O/U (39.5): Absolutely no reason for the Jags to be such a small favorite in this game. When I placed my bets earlier in the week, this game got parlayed into almost every single wager. The O/U isn’t nearly as enticing. I’m taking the over for now, but keep an eye on the next Tropical Storm in the Atlantic (Ophelia). If it hits before or near game-time, this gets messy and the scoring stays down.

LIONS (-3) over Packers – O/U (46): Wow. When was the last time you saw the Lions favored over the Pack? This line, if nothing else, illustrates how little respect the Packers have earned across the league so far. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lions put up 40 points on their own against an abysmal Green Bay defense. And if Joey Harrington can’t rack up 300 and 3TD’s in this one, he never will…

Cardinals (+2.5) over GIANTS – O/U (37.5): I was actually lucky enough to get in on this pick while the Cards were still +3.5, so I’m pretty happy. I’ve got this as a close game, but I believe Arizona wins it outright. Even with the East Coast trip. The Giants just haven’t shown me a damned thing during the off-season and pre-season, and I can’t believe they were that happy with their team at the end of last year.

CHARGERS (-4.5) over Cowboys – O/U (40): Two teams that had great drafts this year get to show off their new pieces in Game 1 of the season. I still think the Chargers are one of the elite teams in the NFL, probably one of the four or five best around. But Dallas scares me this year. Like I said last week, I would be very surprised if they weren’t a playoff team, maybe even a division winner…

Rams (-6) over 49ers – O/U (46.5): Talk about disrespect… that O/U is essentially a reflection of how much the oddsmakers think the Rams will score. And I’d have to agree with them. If St. Louis doesn’t win this game by 17+, they might have some serious issues that need addressing. And since my starting fantasy QB is Marc Bulger, I’d rather not think about any offensive issues that may exist…

RAVENS (+3) over Colts – O/U (46.5): You awake now? Good. Just wanted to make sure you were paying attention. The Ravens have no reason not to win this game, at home, against what is still a middle-of-the-road defense. The Baltimore O-Line should be able to handle Indy’s D, and the Ravens’ D will certainly throw some new looks at Peyton Manning. Or at least they should, if Brian Billick is the “genius” he wants everyone to believe he is…

FALCONS (+1.5) over Eagles – O/U (41.5): I have no reason to think that the Falcons can’t hold court against the Eagles, aside from the threat of a hurricane hitting the stadium during the game. Philadelphia is shedding players left and right (maybe opening up cap space to pay TO?), but I think they’re doing more harm than good. If they can contain Vick, Philly wins in a cakewalk. But I’ve got to see it happen before I’ll sing a different tune.

Recap: PATRIOTS / BILLS / Bengals / Jets / DOLPHINS / VIKINGS / STEELERS / Bears / PANTHERS / JAGUARS / LIONS / Cardinals / CHARGERS / Rams / RAVENS / FALCONS

See a pattern here? It’s Week 1 of the NFL Season – you’ve got to be a pretty bad team for me not to pick with you at home. What’s that tell you about the Chiefs, Browns, Redskins, Giants and Niners?

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 10:49 AM