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2005 NFL Preview - AFC East

AFC East

New England (13-3): Do I really need to sit here and explain this one to you? In 2001, they lost their franchise quarterback, had rookies playing major time at big positions on defense, and had ZERO running game. They won the Super Bowl... In 2003, they lost the captain of their defense, got tagged as one-hit wonders after missing the playoffs the year before, and had ZERO running game. They won the Super Bowl... In 2004, they got a running game, but had ZERO defensive secondary. They won the Super Bowl... This season, they’ve lost their best cornerback and linebacker, plus the Offensive and Defensive Coordinators before a single down is played. Anybody care to guess where I think the season will end…?

NY Jets (9-7): I gave the Jets no respect last season, picking them to finish 7-9 because of injury questions. This year, I’ve learned my lesson. Kinda. After watching Chad Pennington gut it out for the end of last year with what was clearly a damaged shoulder, I’ve got a newfound respect for him. Of course, I’m not sure if you want your star QB playing games when he can’t lift his arm over his head – makes throwing passes just a wee bit difficult... Curtis Martin is still a stud running-back – probably top 5 in the league, and definitely top 5-7 All-Time. Amazing isn’t it? The guy has never been considered the best RB in the league for any given year, but will probably finish his career with better numbers than all but 3 or 4 people… The trouble for me with this Jets team is their defense. Getting Ty Law was a major move. Losing Jason Ferguson is going to hurt their front four a lot more than people think. And if John Abraham keeps playing with his future value on his mind rather than this season, under this contract, for this game, he’s going to be pretty diminished…

Buffalo (6-10): No, Drew Bledsoe was not that important to this team. Neither was Travis Henry. But I’m not ready to anoint the Bills as the next big thing, the way many around the league have done… Let me make this analogy – in 2004, the Lions were everyone’s trendy pick to “shock the league”. They ended the year 6-10, good enough for 3^rd in the NFC North. They had a (relatively) young QB, a very young, promising RB, and a couple of top-tier receivers. Sound like the Bills? A 2^nd year QB with about three minutes of NFL experience, a stud RB, and two top level receivers. The difference is, Detroit had no offense and a pretty tough schedule. Buffalo’s defense is easily top five in the league, and their schedule isn’t all that terrible (although the second half, after the Week 9 bye, is brutal – including five games against KC, @SD, Car, NE, NYJ)… If they start the season off with a quick run over some pretty lousy teams, they might get the momentum to carry them through the year. But if they go 4-4 in the second half, I’ll be surprised…

Miami (3-13): Um… Uh… Um… Hmm… Uh… Let’s see… They have Gus Frerotte seriously competing for (and by all accounts, winning) the starting QB job. Uh-oh... Their #1 draft pick RB held out for the first few weeks of training camp, and their “back-up” RB is a recovering pothead who won’t even play for the first four weeks of the season. Double uh-oh... Their best DB forced his way out of town with a trade to Kansas City, and the rest of the defense is aging, quickly… I wouldn’t have thought it was possible to get worse after last season’s debacle (10^th in the AFC in points allowed, 15^th in points scored, 2-10 in the AFC), but yet I also can’t see how they got better, in any way, at any position… Hmm - can you say “Top 5 Draft Pick”?

posted by Big D @ 10:15 PM