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2005 NFL Preview - AFC South

AFC South

Indianapolis (12-4): All the regular season wins and touchdowns in the world don’t mean anything unless they get home-field advantage in the playoffs… After the first two weeks (@ Bal, JAX), look for Peyton Manning to go absolutely off the charts, as the next five games leading up to the Week 8 bye put the Colts up against some of the worst defenses in the league (CLE, @Ten, @SF, STL, @Hou). Of course, after the bye they have to deal with New England, Pittsburgh and San Diego… The Colts’ defense and special teams were surprisingly good last season, but if Dwight Freeney can’t recover from his off-season surgery, this team is in trouble… Look for Edgerrin James to have a monster season in his contract year…

Jacksonville (9-7): Last Year, I picked Jacksonville as my sleeper team to win the AFC Wild Card. This year, there’s nothing sleeper about them. True, they need a healthy Fred Taylor to remain competitive, but he’s stayed on the field for two seasons now without the wheels flying off… Their defense is still solid, and the receiving corps looks good. Throw in Byron Leftwich coming into his own, and they’ve got a chance to do some serious damage… Of course, a friendly schedule doesn’t hurt, either, and in their 10 games after the Week 7 bye, they play only two games in which they will be a legitimate underdog – Week 10 vs. Baltimore and Week 14 vs. Indianapolis. Both home games, both games that they can win…

Tennessee (7-9): Admittedly, they have a brutal opening month of the season (@Pit, BAL, @STL, Ind), but once you get past those games, they have a very winnable ¾ of the season… Steve McNair probably doesn’t have much left in the tank, and his receiving corps got a little thinner with the loss of Derrick Mason. But Chris Brown is a legitimate running threat, and the defense is still good... Getting Pac-Man Jones signed and into camp was a major accomplishment. He’s the shutdown corner that they’ll need with two games a year against the Colts… 4-3 to end their year is not entirely out of the question, and every small victory helps…

Houston (6-10): Somehow, they’re getting worse. I gave Houston a lot of respect last year, putting them at 8-8 and maybe even expecting them to compete for a Wild Card slot. This year, I have no such delusions... David Carr is a good QB, when he can stay on his feet. Dominick Davis is a very good young RB with a lot of potential, but again, his success depends on the strength of the offensive line. Andre Johnson is a great young WR with the potential to be a 100-catch, 1200-yard kind of guy every season… On defense, they have an aging backfield and a mediocre D-Line… After starting the year against two of the best defenses in the NFL (@Buf, PIT), they get stuck with the worst possible bye week and then a 14-game stretch that includes two each against Indy & Jacksonville, one at Baltimore, and two West-Coast trips to Seattle and San Francisco, though the Niners shouldn’t pose too much of a challenge…

posted by Big D @ 10:06 PM