The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

2004 NFL Preview

Sniff, Sniff…

Mmmm, I love the smell of pigskin in August. Smells like… victory.

That’s right boys and girl (yes, there is now officially a girl reading this column too. Took long enough), football season is here. And while I would love to drone on mindlessly for another couple of thousand words about the final month and a half of the baseball season, I do believe that it is time to switch gears – if only for a week. Well, that, plus I got ripped for my assessment of the trade deadline deals last week. And surprisingly, NOT just by the Mets fans…

First of all, let me say this. I will be posting my weekly football picks up here again this year, and considering how well I handicapped games last year (500% profits), I’ll be betting the games again. Wish me luck. Now, if you choose to follow me and happen to lose money in the process, don’t blame me. If you lost, so did I, and I don’t want to feel worse about it.

That being said, here’s how I see the NFL shaking out this year…

NFC East

("The Coaches")

Before all you Giants fans start ripping me apart, think about it this way. If you start with Warner and he falters, you have no choice to put Eli Manning into the starting role early. If Manning isn’t ready, you’re screwed. But, if Warner plays well, then you have a QB controversy for the season, and you’re praying for an injury or a slump to force Manning into the starting spot later on. It’s a no-win. That, plus Tiki Barber still can’t carry the ball consistently without fumbling 3 times a game.

Dallas won’t compete with the QB’s they have, and as much as Keyshawn is a great WR, he’s not the answer. Eddie George has something to prove, but doesn’t have the resources to prove it, so the running game will be a bit suspect. Bill Parcells is a great coach - maybe one of the five best ever - but if he doesn’t have the groceries, he can’t cook the dinner.

Washington has the complete package; but they’re still Washington. They’ll make the playoffs as the wild card on the legs of Clinton Portis and the combined arms of Mark Brunell and Patrick Ramsey, both of whom will get starts at some point in the year, and both of whom will be good. Oh, and did I mention this Gibbs guy…?

But Philly – now there’s a team built to win. Just not in the playoffs. They’ve got one of the top 5-8 QB’s in the league, they have one of the best 3 receivers in the game, and if Jevon Kearse’s legs hold up, they’ve got a real pass-rushing and run stopping lineman, something they lacked last year. The lack of a good RB will hurt them in time.

NFC North

("NFL Parity")

The only thing that kept Green Bay going last year was Brett Favre’s superhuman performances after his father died. Not to say that he won’t be able to carry this team again, but he’s a year older, and they didn’t make any significant moves to upgrade the team. Favre and Ahman Green should be ranked among the top at their respective positions, but with a marginal defense and no nameable Wide Receivers, look for Green Bay to slip down a notch or two.

Chicago just flat out is lousy. They don’t have a playable QB. They don’t have a playable RB. They have a mediocre defense anchored by a LB that had an amazing first year-plus of his career, then faded off into middle-of-the-pack status last year (87 tackles, 2.5 sacks).

Minnesota is stocked with offensive talent, but it remains to be seen whether or not their defense will be able to hold the fort and get the ball back into the hands of Culpepper, Moss, and whichever RB takes the job full-time (Moe Williams, Onterrio Smith, or Michael Bennett). Daunte Culpepper is really coming into his prime, as evidenced by his 25-11 TD-INT ratio and nearly 3500 yards passing last year. Doesn’t hurt that he’s throwing to one of the best 3 WR’s in the game.

Detroit is the interesting side note here. They upgraded their team immensely through the draft, but who knows how a rookie is going to play under the pressure of the NFL? Joey Harrington now has this season and possibly next to prove what he can do – otherwise they may look to switch directions with the QB position in the near future. Look for Charles Rogers to get a lot of balls his way as defenses are forced to double up on Roy Williams and still keep an eye on Kevin Jones out of the backfield.

NFC South

("Young Guns")

Carolina has no reason not to win this division again, aside from a letdown from last year or a bad bite by the injury bug. They are returning the key parts of their offense AND defense, meaning that this is essentially the same team that stunned most of the NFL and made it all the way to the Super Bowl.

Atlanta is relying on one thing – Michael Vick. If he’s healthy, they might sneak into the playoffs. If he shows any lingering effects of the leg injury, or if he can no longer run like he used to, then this team is mediocre at best. Look for Warrick Dunn to break out this year behind the offensive line coaching of Alex Gibbs, the man who churned out lines that protected four different 1000 yd. rushers in Denver.

New Orleans is like the Red Sox of the NFL (didn’t think I could go an entire column without mentioning the Sox, did you?) They look great at the beginning, level off toward the middle, and fall apart by year’s end, leaving their fans, and front office, to wonder what went wrong. They’re middle of the pack at best, and a candidate for a top 5 draft pick at worst.

Tampa Bay, well, has a past Super Bowl champ ever fallen apart so fast? They lost two multiple Pro Bowl selection guys in Warren Sapp and John Lynch, and got only two decent players in the draft - Will Allen and Michael Clayton. It will now be on 10-year veteran Derrick Brooks (who just turned 31 by the way) to carry this team that has always been defensive first. The offense will revolve around Brad Johnson, and now Tim Brown. But they lack the marquis running back that they need – honestly, anyone who thinks that Charlie Garner, Mike Alstott, Michael Pittman, or Jamel White can carry this team, raise your hand…

NFC West

("The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly")

St. Louis just keeps chugging along, turning out NFC West titles like they’re entitled to win them. This year is going to be a little different though. They’re all one year older, and they didn’t upgrade ANYWHERE, meaning that although they have some of the most talented players in the league, this season will be a dogfight between the Rams and…

The Seahawks. Seattle seems to be everyone’s pick to win the West and do damage in the playoffs. Well, I think they’ll certainly compete in the west, with Shaun Alexander coming into his prime and a very underrated defense, as well as the all-balding all-star QB tandem of Matt Hasselbeck and Trent Dilfer and an extremely talented group of WR’s, Seattle will make some noise in the west. I just don’t see them beating the Rams head to head twice.

Arizona will improve (if you can call 6-10 an improvement…) behind the WR corps of Anquan Boldin (Assuming his knee is OK after yesterday’s injury) and rookie Larry Fitzgerald. The loss of Marcel Shipp will hurt their chances at a better year, but who knows – maybe with a more serious passing attack Emmitt Smith could be a 1000 yard guy again. Josh McCown may be the real deal if Dennis Green is willing to stick with him, although he doesn’t have many other options. Just remember, this is the guy who drafted Daunte Culpepper, and he calls McCown the best QB he’s ever coached. That’s gotta say something.

The 49ers are in deep trouble this season. Their skill positions on offense stack up like this: Starting QB – Ken Dorsey (never played an NFL game). Starting RB – Kevin Barlow (2200 career yards rushing and 14 TD’s in 3 seasons – four starts in 45 games). Starting WR’s – Cedric Wilson and Brandon Lloyd (64 career receptions between them). And their offense is supposed to be the strength of this team. Yikes.

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AFC West

("Twilight")

The Chiefs, the team that flirted with an undefeated season last year until their lack of defense and good receivers was exposed, will be back at it again this year – at least until their lack of defense and good receivers is exposed (Week 2 vs. Carolina, Week 8 vs. Indy or Week 11 vs. New England). They’re carrying 6 running backs as of today – couldn’t they get a couple of better receivers?

Denver is a wild card this year, both literally and figuratively. I would like to say that they could just plug in any running back with their scheme and their offensive line, but Clinton Portis is a special back, and the loss of OL coach Alex Gibbs will hurt just as much. A lot of people are talking about a rededicated Jake Plummer, and having a shutdown corner will take away one entire side of the field for the defense. But everything rests on the running game and either Garrison Hearst or Quentin Griffin.

Oakland got older, and that’s something they couldn’t afford to do. Sure, Robert Gallery is a great OL and will protect whichever aging QB gets put behind him. But Amos Zereoue is the starting RB, with Tyrone Wheatley (?!) backing up, a guy who I was stunned to learn was still alive, let alone still in the league. The defense is good. Not great, but good. Warren Sapp and Ted Washington will make them one of the better run defenses in the game through size alone. But both are old and probably past their primes, and this team needed to get younger fast. They didn’t do it.

San Diego is an absolute mess, and it’s a shame. They did everything right in the Eli Manning fiasco, and Philip Rivers turns out to be the one that screws them over. If he’s not in camp by the end of this week, he probably won’t play this year. That leaves Drew Brees and Doug Flutie as the quarterbacks on a team with no above average receivers and the best running back in football. Now THERE’S an interesting dichotomy. Marty Schottenheimer is going to take the fall this year, and that’s really not fair. Just wait until LT is a free agent and bolts (no pun intended) as fast as he can.

AFC South

("Full of Sound and Fury...")

Indianapolis has done nothing but bitch and complain about how the referees took the AFC title away from them last year by letting the Patriots’ DB’s manhandle the Colts’ receivers. It will be very interesting to see what happens in the first game of the year – Pats v. Colts – with the new bumping rules being enforced. That aside, the Colts have, by far, the most talent in the division (maybe even the conference), and they’ll run away with it early.

Tennessee will miss Eddie George more than they thought, but more importantly, they’ll realize what Bills and Patriots fans have known for awhile now – Antowain Smith is not the answer. Steve McNair can only do so much, and without the threat of a running game, he’s going to take a pounding that I don’t think even he can withstand.

Houston jut keeps getting better and better. This team only came into the league two years ago, and they’re already looking good enough to compete for a playoff spot. They have a good coach, a good quarterback, very good receivers, and a solid running game. Plus, they’ve got a very good front office and a fan base that reveres football. What more could a young team ask for?

Jacksonville is the South’s sleeper. Byron Leftwich looked decent last year in his first chance to start, and with Fred Taylor healthy (which is never guaranteed) and a receiving corps that can make some plays, this team might just sneak into the playoffs. Plus, they had the single most underrated defense last year. Hugh Douglas is rededicated to his game, and that means trouble to opposing quarterbacks.

AFC North

("I'm Running Out of Names")

Cincinnati proved last year that they can compete, but they’ve already anointed Carson Palmer the #1, even though Jon Kitna had a career year and almost led the team to the playoffs. That might be a mistake. The offense, assuming Palmer is serviceable, should be OK, but I’m not sold on the defense. Last year was nice, but it won’t happen again.

Baltimore is just an absolute force on defense, and with Jamal Lewis healthy (and out of jail – for now) they should be able to at least control the offensive side of the ball, if not dominate like they do on defense. Just imagine if they had landed Kerry Collins, or had kept Terrell Owens? Wow.

Pittsburgh will surprise some people this year, which has GOT to be the last for Jerome Bettis. He’s one of the top 10 ALL-TIME running backs, and he’s gotta hang ‘em up this year. But the QB situation will be one to watch. If Bill Cowher wants to go for it now, he’ll sit Tommy Maddox and let the kid, Ben Rothlisberger, play. If he wants to groom the kid and let this season play itself out to get a good RB in next year’s draft to replace Bettis, then he’ll have a very young team next year and probably be very competitive.

And then there’s Cleveland… nevermind. There’s nothing to say.

AFC East

("The Champions' Tour")

After losing Ricky Williams and David Boston, and given the fact that they’re still keeping this absurd QB competition open, the Dolphins look like they’re headed straight for a top 3 pick in the draft. It’s a good thing Dave Wannestedt’s contract got renewed LAST year…

The Jets are a bit schizophrenic this year. They’ve still got a top 10 running back and a great QB, but they’ve got no one to back up either. One injury and this season is tanked, again, for the Jets. If they stay healthy, they’ll compete for a wild card spot, and maybe even give the Patriots a run for the division.

The Bills are looking better and better. They already had the defense in place last year; now with new QB coach Sam Wyche, Drew Bledsoe is learning how to do the little things all over again. And more importantly, he’s learning to do them quickly. He’s got a year, maybe two left before J.P. Losman takes over this team, so Drew is going to make the most of his time. He remembers the last time he didn’t pay attention to the young, up-and-coming rookie lurking over his shoulder…

And some kid named Tom Brady moved from #3 starter to 2-time Super Bowl MVP. I almost put the Pats at 15-1 this year, but I’m not that greedy. Looking at the schedule, there are only four games that look like they’ll legitimately be close (Indy, @St. Louis, @KC and Baltimore). The week three bye is not great, and neither is the fact that they play their first three games over a span of 24 days (9/9, 9/19, and 10/3). But even with all that, I see no reason for them not to win the division, the conference, and get back to the Super Bowl.

Playoffs

After their byes, New England, Philly, and St. Louis will win their second round games, with KC faltering (stop me if this sounds familiar). The Redskins will surprise people by advancing to the championship game against the Panthers, and then will stun the world by upsetting the defending NFC champs and making it to the Super Bowl... where the Patriots - in the best Super Bowl coaching matchup since Marv Levy and Jimmy Johnson went head-to-head twice in a row - will promptly dismantle them and cement their place as the first NFL dynasty of the new millennium, and earn Tom Brady and Bill Belichick their busts in Canton.

Oh, one last thing. The Quote of the Week:

This time, surprisingly, not by my mother...

I was sitting with my mom and my cousin Hilda last night discussing family stuff when we stumbled onto the topic of old movies. My cousin tried to relate a point after I made a reference to the movie "Dumbo"

Hilda: "Well, you know what they say about envelopes like Dumbo - they never forget."

Me: "Uh, no. I think they say that about ELEPHANTS..."

I love being able to write this stuff down...

posted by Big D @ 12:00 AM