Well, it finally happened.

I finally entered a live poker tournament at Foxwoods.

And man, did I have fun.

So I went down to Connecticut last night to enter a free tournament I was in for the night, and I found out that there was a $150 No-Limit Hold-‘em tournament at 8PM. I talked to a few people and found out that there were usually about 200-250 people in each tournament, meaning that there was a nice prize pool every week (last night, first place was almost $20k), with top 30 getting paid. So I figured “What the hell, I can probably finish in the top thirty if I play safe, and besides, no one know me or my style of play, so I might even be able to bluff away a couple of times.”

I plopped down my cash, got my table, and waited.

When I got to the table, I realized I was at two distinct disadvantages. First, I was the youngest, meaning I was going to be harassed all night. Second, I was sitting directly across from the dealer at an 11-seat table, so I had little to no room to hide my hole cards and still be able to see them. Also, the lights above our table were in bad shape, so I couldn’t see anything with my shades on. Fun, fun, fun.

Anyway, I had a few nice wins before the first break, knocking out 4 people at the table, 2 on draws that I made, one on a monster hand (Aces full of tens), and one on his semi-bluff that I called with over cards and won. I even got a couple of "MoneyMaker" comparisons, after I outdrew people continually. That was fun. Unfortunately, I found out during the tourney that it was a Rebuy/Add-on, meaning that although I knocked out 4 players (including the same guy twice with straights on the river… he was PISSED), they could pay another $60 and get a new stack of chips. At least until the end of the first hour.

After the first break, I was second at the table after laying down a hand that would have eventually given me the nut straight, and almost double the chips of anyone else at the table. That hurt. Tossed AJ with 10-Q-2 on the board. Someone went all-in, and I didn’t want to risk my chips on ANOTHER draw. Another guy called, and they flipped up their hands. Pocket 9’s versus Q-10 suited. Turn was a K (my straight) and the river was a third 9. Big pot that I got no piece of.

I went all-in 5 times, got called twice and won both. The other two, people just backed the hell off.

Oh, and the fifth time, when I bluffed and got caught. Oops.

Total frustration hand. The previous hand I had tossed A-8 two seats behind the big blind because there was a $500 bet on the table and I only had about $1300 left in chips. Flop was Q-A-A. I was sick, because the winning hand was just a pair of queens, but the pot was almost $4000. Woulda been nice.

So anyway, the next hand I got A-7. I figured that I had to play it, kicker or not, one seat behind the big blind. Called the 300, so did another guy. Everyone folded to the big blind, who raised 500. I only had 1000 left, so I went all-in. The other call folded, the blind called… and showed his AJ suited. I had Ace of diamonds and 7 of spades versus AJ of hearts. Flop was shit, with two clubs and a spade. Then another club. Then the Ace of clubs, and I was done.

So in my first live tournament, I knocked out 4 people (one twice), I outlasted two professionals at my table, and I stayed alive almost to the second break (10 minutes short). I saw ESPN.com Page 2’s Jackpot Jay (and actually, lasted longer than him in the tourney...shhhh), and I still finished well short of the money. Oh well. Who’s up for a poker night?

Now on to what I really wanted to talk about today, my All-Star Break first half recap. Be forewarned; this is long (a little under 4000 words)

THE STANDINGS

Well, I vaguely remember making some predictions back on April 8^th about the final standings, awards, and playoffs. Oops…

AL East

Well, I was close. Actually, not at all. God, this division is just plain ugly. The Yankees are a behemoth at this point, with a 7 game lead at the turn. No, it’s not insurmountable. But if New York keeps playing .640 ball, it will be. Boston has been, by far, the most inconsistent team in baseball. But if they make the deals that are rumored all over the place up here, look for then to make a surge right near the top of this division. Probably not to the 101 wins that I predicted, but 95-98 would not be out of the question.

Tampa Bay has been a breath of fresh air in a division that needed a shake-up. I was tired of seeing the AL East finish in exactly the same order for five years in a row. Congratulations to Lou Pinella who predicted this team would finish over .500. Although they’re 3 games under right now, it’s not unthinkable that they could reach and pass .500 soon. Back in April, I wrote “Most improved team will be the D-Rays, with an offense that is actually capable of putting up runs, although don't be surprised if a couple of them are moved around the trading deadline.” Well, no one is going anywhere, except maybe Fred McGriff or Tino Martinez, neither of who would be major losses.

Toronto and Baltimore suck. No questions asked, they suck. Baltimore tried to buy a 15 run per game team, but unfortunately they still have a 15 run per game pitching staff. Toronto got hit by the injury bug early and often, but even when healthy this team looked bad. Carlos Delgado will probably get moved soon. Same goes for Frank Catalanatto. Vernon Wells is a young star who is on the DL for awhile (believe me, I know. He’s my star fantasy outfielder), so look for the Jays to hold onto him and try to build around him next year.

AL Central

Wow, go Tigers go!

Looks like I nailed the White Sox here, and Freddy Garcia will help this team get through the rest of the season. They have a major pending free-agent in Magglio Ordonez, but much like the Red Sox with Pedro, Varitek, etc., don’t look for them to deal him mid-season. Mags is the key to this team’s offense, especially now with Frank Thomas down for an extended period of time.

The Twins need one more starter, but I don’t think they can afford to add another potential free-agent. They stand to lose like five of their core guys (I know Radke and Koskie are in walk years, and I think that either Jacque Jones or Torii Hunter, or maybe both are too). Minnesota may have to, once again, make due with what they’ve got.

Detroit is a great surprise, though not on par with Tampa Bay. Detroit actually made some signings this off-season that people expected would make them better. Plus, it’s not hard to improve on a 119-loss season. If Pudge wins the batting title this year, it cements his place as the greatest overall catcher in history, and it will punch his first ticket into the Hall-Of-Fame.

The Indians are looking like a solid team, and I don’t think ANYONE predicted them or Detroit to be 5.5 games out of first at the break. But they will fall back to Earth soon enough, with the trade deadline looming, they have some good young guys that may become available.

Finally, The Royals. Ugh. They dealt away their best player, and it doesn’t look like they’re done restocking. They got some very good prospects in return, so maybe they’ll be back in contention in three or four years. But it’s going to be a long time before we see another 80 win season in Kansas City. Think Mike Sweeney is contemplating invoking his out clause if “the team fails to make moves to remain competitive”?

AL West

Did I say The Rangers had no shot? Um, oops, my bad. Seriously, I don’t think anyone believes that they can keep this up, especially not when they’re relying on a pitcher who is better known for his name than his game. Kenny Rogers is a decent pitcher; he’s not a #1, he’s not even a #2. But with this pitching staff, he’s suddenly become an ace. Boston lit him up on Sunday (and boy am I glad I chose to sit him in a league) for 8 earned in 1.2 innings. Their offense, led by the best offensive infield in baseball (yes, better than the Yankees), has been solid top to bottom all year long. Blalock, Young, Soriano, and Texeira have all been outstanding, and will only get better with time.

I still believe that the A’s will take this division, but if they don’t get their pitchers healthy in a hurry, then the Rangers might hold on. Oakland’s offense needs some tinkering, but I think they’ll be able to pull together in time to take the division. Otherwise, they’ll need to look out for both Texas and…

The Angels. Bartolo Colon has been a moderate bust, but Vlad Guerrero, excuse me, AL MVP Vlad Guerrero has been worth every penny. This team has lost so many games to injury this season that the mere fact that they’re above .500 (and only 2.5 games back) is astounding. Hell, I think the Rally Monkey even went on the DL for a couple of weeks. Now if they’d only put the ThunderStix on a 60-day rehab stint in the minors, I’d be happy.

Finally, Seattle. Has a team not named The Lakers ever gotten older faster? They are slow, weak, and playing in a home park that doesn’t exactly help either of those qualities. Even Ichiro is playing like he suddenly added a couple of decades to his birth certificate. I mean, c’mon! How do you go from 118 wins three years ago to 32 at the break this year, only percentage points above the worst record in baseball?! This is a debacle, and it’s not going to get much better this year.

NL East

Well, again, back in April, I wrote that the Marlins and Braves could easily flip in the standings, and it looks like I was right. This is the tightest division in baseball, with 4 teams separated by 2 games. We’re probably going to see four buyers and one team that has talent, but won’t sell it off with a new home looming in ’05.

The Phillies should still hold onto the East, but I don’t really know what they really need. The pitching has been pretty solid, especially the bullpen. The hitting has been there, though they do strikeout far too often. Maybe they could get a couple of Moneyball guys to lead off and hit second. And I’m not totally sold on Marlon Byrd as a starter in Philly anymore. He’s had plenty of time to prove himself; it’s time to go get someone new.

The Braves are, well, The Braves. Bobby Cox deserves some SERIOUS consideration for Manager of the Year, and as I wrote before, “never, EVER, count out a team run by John Scheurholz and Bobby Cox.” No Glavine, no Maddux, no Millwood, no Javy, no Sheffield, no problem. How Bobby pulls this off year after year I’ll never know.

The Marlins, like I said, are having some troubles from the catcher position. So much so, that there was a report that they asked Boston about Jason Varitek. The Red Sox politely declined (Although Nomar could probably be had for a bag of balls and an autographed photo of Billy the Marlin). Hee Sop Choi at first is producing, although he’s cooled off a bit since his fast start. Armando Benitez been wonderful closing, but it’s not October yet. Miguel Cabrera, who I mistakenly thought qualified for the ROY this year, has been unbelievable, especially when you consider he’s 20. 20!! But they’re not winning this division. And I don’t think they can get the wild-card either. Time to blow it up, again, Mr. Loria.

The Mets have been a lot better than I expected (There Vinny, you happy now?). They’re only 2 games back, and they have more resources available, both in cash and prospects, to add a player or two at the deadline than anyone else in the division. Kaz Matsui has exploded since being called out by, of all people, Donald Trump. Mike Cameron has really shored up the outfield, and if Jose Reyes ever learns to take care of his legs, they’ll have a legit leadoff threat. Tom Glavine rediscovered all of his pitches this year, thanks to great defense behind him. Remember the Rey Ordonez / Edgardo Alfonso / Roberto Alomar infield of some 6000 errors? Ah, those were the days...

And the Expos. What more needs to be said here? How about “Adieu”.

NL Central

Damn, even the PIRATES are almost at .500! The Cardinals have really surprised me this year. We all knew they had a lineup capable of putting up 1000 runs this year, but the fact that their pitching has stayed healthy and has been so solid, top to bottom, has really made them the current team to beat in the NL. I still think the Cubs, when totally healthy, will make this division their own. But for now, there’s a train rollin’ through downtown St. Louis, so you better get out of the way.

As for those Cubs, they lost both Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, two of the best in the game, for separate 2-month stints to the DL. Greg Maddux looked AWFUL for the first month or so of the season, and Sammy Sosa has not been the Sammy Sosa we have embraced for the last six years. Yet they’re still 7 games over .500, 7 games back of first, and only 1 game behind the Giants for the Wild Card. Now everyone is healthy, Maddux is pitching like Maddux does, and they’re ready to take over the NL. Get ready…

The Reds will not stay here, period. The pitching is not impressive, aside from Paul Wilson and Danny Graves. And the offense just lost its leader to injury when (shock) Ken Griffey Jr. went down with an injury to his (shock) hamstring. Again. Get ready for the freefall.

The Brewers just look like they’re having fun, and their GM looks like a genius for parlaying Richie Sexson, who dislocated his shoulder on a check-swing, into Junior Spivey and Lyle Overbay, two players who have led the Brewers to an above .500 record at the break for the first time in a long time. Throw in dominating free-agent to be Ben Sheets (They’d better extend his contract before the Yankees, Mets or Red Sox get a chance to throw gobs and gobs of money at him) and the best leadoff guy in the game, Scott Podsednik, and the Brewers look to be a fun team to watch come September, when I believe they’ll be competing for a wild card berth (currently 2.5 games back).

The Astros are the disappointment of the year to date. Jimy Wiliams will get fired, probably today or tomorrow. The All-Star Game saved him for a couple of days, but not a couple of games. No one mismanages a pitching staff more, and he’s made a living off of building a team with smoke and mirrors for too long. He’s done. The Astros are 10.5 back in the division, but only 4.5 back in the wild card, so don’t look for the sell-off yet.

And then there’s Pittsburgh. Save for a 10-game winning streak, this season has been much like the last few – Lose, Lose, Lose, Win, Lose… They’re going to get better eventually, I promise. But they don’t have the revenue to sign the marquee free agents (Hello Raul Mondesi… how’d that work out for ya?), so they get stuck in “Wait ‘Til Next Year” mode, building their prospects and farm system, and biding their time. They just have to wait for the year when all of the prospects come together at once and none of them are in walk years.

NL West

Well, I was a bit off on this one. I had this projected as the tightest and best division in baseball, with all 5 teams finishing over .500. Oops.

I still say the Padres will win this. They’re only 2 games back and they’ve got all the tools. Plus the Dodgers are starting to fade, and Barry can get walked every time. The Pads will pull this out with good young pitching and great defense, even if the offense leaves a little to be desired. OK, a lot…

The Dodgers need offense. Gee, why does this sound familiar? Seriously though, their pitching has been suspect so far this year, with Hideo Nomo (3-10, 8.06 ERA) looking absolutely moribund on the mound. Someone, somewhere, is sounding the death knell on his major league career. Odalis Perez has been great, but with no run support, his 2.36 ERA doesn’t mean much if his team only scores a run or so every time he goes to the mound. It’s never a good sign when your team’s best pitcher only throws one inning a night.

Barry and the Bayside Boys, I’m sorry, I mean The Giants, have very little to offer in the way of a division race. Eventually, Barry will just walk to first base rather than the plate when his turn in the order comes up; it’d save everyone a couple of minutes. He just broke his own single-season record for intentional walks (68) with his 71^st IBB earlier this week. 71 intentional walks IN THE FIRST HALF is just wrong. He’s got 131 walks overall, meaning he’s about to demolish the record for walks in a season as well. Let the man hit; maybe he’s not as good as everyone thinks, maybe he’ll get exposed, maybe his head will get so big he’ll float into space… Ha, I can’t even keep a straight face while typing that. Anyway, they can’t compete if Barry can’t hit. Very simple. Either get him some protection, or else pack it in for this season.

As for the D-Backs and Rocks, two words: July 31^st. Randy Johnson has to move for Arizona to be competitive in the future. He saps too much of their money, and for a team looking to upgrade a few positions, he’s gotta accept the trade and get going. Go get another ring or two, then retire happy. The Rockies have nothing to play for anymore, so why not ship out a bunch of players? Preston Wilson would look great in center for a contender, and if Todd Helton’s contract weren’t so obscene ($16.5M a year average through 2011 with a $23M option for '12!) he’d be gone already.

AWARDS UPDATE

FINAL STANDINGS

American League

East: Yankees

Central: White Sox

West: A’s

Wild Card: Boston

National League

East: Phillies

Central: Cardinals

West: Padres

Wild Card: Cubs

PLAYOFFS

ALDS – New York over Chicago (4 games) / Boston over Oakland (4 games)

Oakland gets the west, Boston the Wild Card. Stop me if this sounds familiar…

NLDS – St. Louis over Philly (3 games) / Chicago over San Diego (3 games)

St. Louis gets the Central, Cubbies are the Wild Card.

ALCS – Boston over New York (6 games)

Like I said in April, it’s pretty damned cold in Boston in October…

NLCS – Chicago over St. Louis (7 games)

Great pitching beats great hitting every time.

World Series - … Boston over Chicago (7 games)

I’ve talked myself into and out of this at least five times, but now, I’m

convinced. There will be at least three great pitchers duels here…

So that’s it. And while I realize I’m approaching the 4000 word mark, let me just add this tidbit. I wanted to put a rumor department up here for all of the trades being talked, but the only one that matters to me is this: The big talk today is Nomar to the Cubs for prospects, then those prospects along with a couple already in Boston’s farm system (Youkilis, Shoppach, or both) to Arizona for Randy Johnson. Imagine seeing the Cubs and Sox in the series then….

So I’m looking forward to the second half with great anticipation. I hope you are too. Let’s see how close I get.

Oh, BTW, I chose to actually listen to music again this week. Couple of great albums – Dropkick Murphys’ “Blackout” and Guns ‘N’ Roses’ “Appetite for Destruction”. Wide range of emotions there…

posted by Big D @ 12:00 AM