2004 MLB Preview

First off, I apologize for not writing last week. I just started a new job, so I spent all of last week adjusting to a normal life again. Tough to remember how to do the little things, like actually setting an alarm clock, not just getting up whenever Bob Barker comes on. (It's...A NEW CAR! Love that.) One thing I have to say for my job though; I LOVE my commute. I'm so used to working in and around Boston that I just assumed an hour of traffic was mandatory. Now I'm in Providence, and it's like thirty-five minutes from my front door to my office. Yes, I do have my own office. Hells yeah!

OK, so I know I promised all of you a little insight into the NCAA tournament finish, but to tell the truth, I have nothing to say about it. I love college basketball, and this was one of the most boring tournaments I can remember. Almost everyone who was supposed to win did just that (which destroyed my brackets), with the exception of Kentucky (which IMPLODED what was left of my brackets). I had Duke over Kentucky in one, Duke over Pitt in the other. That's why you should never take my advice about picks outside of football.

I also promised one person in particular that I'd write about a charity basketball game I attended, and don't worry, that's coming up soon. But not today.

Today, I'm going to reevaluate my position on a few things in MLB, as well as declare my position on a few things in this upcoming season. Simple as that.

First, before I go changing my opinions, let me say that this column was actually typed about three weeks ago, but I decided to save it for a while, and then update it today. I don't want people giving me shit about being a bandwagon jumper (No, I'm not picking the Tigers as World Series champs based on their sweep of the Blue Jays). And I don't want to hear that I'm changing predictions because of events that have transpired in the first week of the season.

I am, however, reevaluating the predictions I made about a month ago, just days after Greg Maddux signed with the Cubs. So, without further ado, I bring you my 2004 MLB predictions update, this time with explanations. But this is the last time I'm changing them, until the next time. Hopefully not before the break.

AL East:

Red Sox (101-61)

Yankees (98-64)

Blue Jays (85-77)
Orioles (80-82)

D-Rays (72-90)

Not a homer pick here. Great pitching (Sox) beats great hitting (Yanks, O’s), and great hitting (Sox, Yanks) beats good pitching (Yanks, Jays). This is a very simple concept: This division plays each other like 19 times per matchup. That means that the Sox and Yanks each get about 57 games to beatup on the Jays, O's, and D-Rays. But the 19 games Head to Head will decide this division.

I expect both Boston and New York to go about 38-19 (.667) against the weaker foes in the East. Like the old saying goes, "Beat the teams you're supposed to beat two-thirds of the time, and split with the good teams, and you'll be in the playoffs." I see that happening in this division this year.

Last year my friend Don had a great philosophy about how the ALCS was going to play out, and he was almost right. The Red Sox and Yankees were so evenly matched all year that going into the ALCS, the Yankees led the season series 10 games to 9. Just before Game 1, he said that the Sox would win in 7, because that would put the season series at 13-13, with Boston getting the one that counted most. Damn, so close.

Most improved team will be the D-Rays, with an offense that is actually capable of putting up runs, although don't be surprised if a couple of them are moved around the trading deadline.

Biggest disappointment is the Orioles, who went out and tried to sign every free agent available, and while they did a nice job getting Tejada, Lopez and Palmeiro, they completely neglected a pitching staff that was sorely in need of help. Getting Sidney Ponson back was not the solution to all of the problems still lingering on.

Finally, the Blue Jays get caught in limbo again. They've got the complete package to compete in any other division. Hell, they'd be odds-on favorites to win the AL Central. But in this division, with this competition, they're just an also ran. Don't be surprised if Carlos Delgado is a Dodger by the deadline, if the Dodgers can compete.

AL Central:

White Sox (88-74)

Twins (85-77)

Indians (80-82)

Royals (80-82)

Tigers (70-92)

Yes, that is a 70 in the Tigers' win column. They didn't do much this past off-season, but what they did do was significant. Pudge, Fernando Vina, Ugueth Urbina, Carlos Guillen and Rondell White comprise a pretty decent set of veterans to surround a very young team looking for direction. The Tigers pitching staff wasn't that horrible last year, despite having two 20-game losers. Sure, they allowed a bunch of runs, but there were a lot of errors too, plus Detroit's offense wasn't exactly stellar either.

But it won't be enough, not even in this division. Chicago looks like a solid team, with Frank Thomas coming back for another go-round. The pitching looks good, the defense is back, and Magglio, Thomas, Konerko and Carlos Lee are all primed to crush balls out of the park.

The Twins are going to be hard pressed to reach the 85 wins I'vee got there for them. I think it'll end up being closer to 80 than 85. No proven closer, a decimated bullpen, and the hitting was never all that impressive to begin with. Their streak ends this year.

Cleveland, however, is just about to make their move. They'll get close this year, even with the trade of Milton Bradley. They've still got enough offense, and a very young pitching staff about to explode onto the scene. A lot of teams are going to forget about the Indians for the first half of the season, and they'll be ready to attack.

Unfortunately, the Royals peaked last season. That's not to say they'll go back to their losing ways, but I don't see them getting any better. They made smart moves by retaining Mike Sweeney and Carlos Beltran, and adding Juan Gonzalez might just push their offense over the top. And their starting pitchers would DOMINATE the AL East (Opening Day rotation - 5 lefties, 0 righties). But I don't see them being good enough to take the division anymore. Don't ask me why, but I've got a feeling. I almost put them behind the Tigers, so what's that tell you?

Finally, we have those loveable Tigers. The Cubs aren't loveable losers anymore, so it's the Tigers' turn. They'll do much better than last season (which shouldn't be that hard), but don't expect playoffs too quickly. Plus, although they signed Oogie, so have a couple of other teams over the past few seasons. He's made it well known that he's a hired gun, and he'll probably be dealt by the deadline. Look for Minnesota, the White Sox, or maybe the Mets to step in if they're fighting it out.

AL West

A's (99-63)

Mariners (98-64)

Angels (98-64)

Rangers (72-90)

Talk about parity - I honestly see this as the tightest division in baseball, because unlike the AL East, these guys only have one patsy to pound on. Sorry Texas, but the Rangers suck. Simple fact of life. But hey, you've still got Chan Ho Park to look forward to, right?

Oakland wins on the strength of their pitching alone. Anytime you can use a guy like Rich Harden as a #5, and you're NOT The Yankees? Thats just not right. Their offense will miss Tejada, but Bobby Crosby absolutely tore through the minors, and he shouldn't have any problems adjusting to Major League pitching. He takes BP from the likes of Hudson, Zito and Mulder; I think he can handle the rest of the league.

Seattle and Anaheim will tie one game behind Oakland, and tie with the Yankees for the wild card. This is going to end up as the first 3-way tie for the wild card ever; last time there was even a two-way tie was in 1999 when the Reds (And Jack McKeon) lost a tiebreaker to the Mets. Yes, the Mets were, at one time, good. Anyway, I think that the Yankees will emerge victorious from this three-way mess and take the wild card. I really don't want to explain MLB's rules regarding a three-way tie, so just click the link and figure it out for yourselves.

As for Texas, well nice job dumping A-Rod. Even better job getting someone with the quality and minimal price tag of Soriano in exchange. Could probably have gotten a pitching prospect or two also, but the Yankees farm system is so depleted, I wouldn't be surprised if there was no one Texas wanted. Anyway, this team is going to hit, there's no doubt about that. As for the pitching, there's not much of it. And as we all know, good pitching beats good hitting. Texas is heading for another losing season, but they're coming around to the point where one or two shrewd GM moves to acquire pitching could put them right back into the AL West hunt. John Hart was a mastermind in Cleveland; what the hell happened?

NL East

Phillies (100-62)

Marlins (92-70)

Braves (88-74)

Mets (87-75)

Expos (76-86)

I've only got two teams projecting to 100+ wins this season, and now you know who both of them are. The Phillies have only one thing to worry about this season: themselves. They've got the offense. They've got the pitching. They've got the defense. They've got the relievers. Unfortunately, they've also got the most neurotic manager in the bigs, with Lou Pinella a close second. If Larry Bowa can keep his cool, and this team can forget about last season, they've got no reason not to dominate this division.

The Marlins were a nice story last year, and God knows that just about everyone was much happier to see them win the Series than the Yankees. But here's a great thought from last October that I heard on a local radio call-in show. The guy called just before Game 1 of the World Series, and asked the loyal Boston listeners "Which do you think is worse: watching the Yankees win their 26^th championship, or the Marlins win their 2^nd since 1997??" He made an extremely good point.

More importantly, these are not the same Marlins. Yes, they'll have great pitching. Yes, the majority of their team is intact. But they lost three key figures from last year's team: Pudge and Oogie are in Detroit, and Derrek Lee got traded to Chicago. They've done a serviceable job replacing each; Hee Seop Choi for Lee, Armando Benitez for Oogie, and a Ramon Castro / Mike Redmond platoon for Pudge. But come August and September, whom would you rather go to battle with: A HOF catcher, a solid, if not top 5, closer, and a star first baseman in the making? Or two career platoon catchers, a guy who tripped over the mound and almost broke his neck, and a closer who can't find the plate come playoffs? That's what I thought.

These Marlins aren't going to sneak up on anybody, either. I wouldn's be surprised if they and Atlanta flip-flopped in the standings, or if they started dumping players come July.

As for Atlanta, it pains me to see my second-favorite team going the way they are. That being said, never, EVER, count out a team run by John Scheurholz and Bobby Cox. And yes, I spelled Scheurholz right without looking it up.

The Braves still have a solid offense, anchored by the Jones' and Marcus Giles, and with the addition of perennial "Comeback Player of the Year" contender J.D. Drew, they've actually got a shot to score as many runs as last year. Javy Lopez was a big loss, but don't look for too much of a drop between the numbers he put up and what Johnny Estrada will do. Maybe not as much power, but this is the only guy the Braves asked for in the Kevin Millwood trade. In my time as an Atlanta fan, I've come to respect Scheurholz and his scouting teams a lot. Pitching will be a dropoff, but they've got serious depth in the bullpen, and at least two guys (Reitsma and Hernandez) who could come out and make spot starts if needed. They're not the Braves of the 12 straight Division titles, but they could still make yet another run to the playoffs.

The Mets, well they're still the Mets. They got hugely better this year, and if Kaz Matsui adjust to New York as well as Hideki Matsui did last year, they might be better than anyone imagined. The double-play combination of Reyes to Matsui is really going to be fun to watch, almost as much as Nomar to Pokey (whenever that happens). Don't be too surprised to see Mike Piazza back behind the plate for a good chunk of the year; I caught a couple of Mets spring training games and he looked worse at first than Mo Vaughn used to.

Once again though, this team didn't add much to their pitching needs. They got Matsui and Cameron to shore up the middle of the field defense, and those additions will help this underachieving staff. Leiter and Glavine still have something left in the tank, and although I'm not totally sold yet, Jae Seo and Aaron Heilman don't look too bad, as far as young prospects go. But let's see where this team goes from here; they've got half the pieces in place.

And then we have the orphans of Major League Baseball, Les Expos. I've got to admit, at this point I wouldn't care if they contracted Montreal and dispersed the players in a draft. It'd be better than fighting for years over relocating them, and really, who would be adversely affected? Did you know that if they move to Washington D.C./Northern Virginia, Peter Angelos, the Orioles?owner, would get $180 MILLION from Major League Baseball (read: the other owners) for the possible financial losses he MIGHT incur?!?! Thats asinine! This team made some amazing signings, considering the state of the franchise. But don't look for anybody to stay here long; Carl Everett and Tony Batista were nice additions who, along with OBP machine Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro, and free agent to be Orlando Cabrera could make some noise, although no one would be around to hear it. But I'd be surprised if Everett, Vidro, Cabrera, and incumbent Brad Wilkerson were Expos at the end of the year. This is a team not even trying to contend anymore, so they might as well help the other teams, considering the other teams own them anyway.

NL Central

Cubs (99-63)

Astros (97-65)

Cardinals (95-67)

Reds (80-82)

Brewers (78-84)

Pirates (68-94)

This is the most lopsided division in baseball. At least in the others, there's a slow dropoff from really good to really bad (except the AL West?ugh). Well, here it is, the good, the, well no, just the ugly.

The Cubs are going to the World Series this year. I know I originally said it would be Houston, but then Chicago signed Greg Maddux, and changed everything. Now all they have to do is pray to Jobu that Mark Prior's Achilles isn't as bad as it sounds, and they'll be all set. They've finally got the offense to match their pitching, and even if Maddux doesn't win his customary 15 games (which I think he will), just the knowledge he can impart to the younger guys will make them that much more dominating.

Same goes for Houston. They've got the pitching now to match their offense, and the addition of two future Hall-Of-Fame pitchers won'y hurt one bit. Honestly, did anyone see Clemens' line in his first game? 7IP, 0ER, 1H, 9K? He's 41 for Christ's sake!?!? He and Andy Pettite should be able to make a great pitcher in Roy Oswalt even better, and help bring along Wade Miller, Tim Redding, and new closer Octavio Dotel. All they have to worry about is the age of their best hitters (Bags, Biggs, and Hidalgo). Lot of miles on those boys right there.

St. Louis is getting the short end of the stick here, much like Toronto in the AL East. They made moves to upgrade, but not nearly enough to make a serious run in their division. Luckily, they have three teams to beat up on, which will keep their record high enough to give them the slightest air of hope come September. But would someone please tell them to sign a pitcher?

As for the last three, well there's not much that can be said. Cincinnati is actually not far away. They've got some decent offense (although it would have been much better if they'd kept Aaron Boone. I'd have been much happier too.) A healthy Junior is key to this team though. They can either compete and stay out of the basement or they can pack it in and freefall past, gulp...

Milwaukee. As weird as it sounds, the Brewers aren't half bad. They're not going to compete anytime soon in this division, but they've got some real good, real young talent that will make them awful fun to watch in September. Until then, don't hold your breath.

Pittsburgh is just plain bad. They made one off-season move, getting Raul Mondesi. This move was essentially a way to get something at the trade deadline, since there's no way he'll stay there. At least the Pirates can get a few prospects out of him. They'll be good in a couple more years, but for now?wow.

NL West

Padres (90-72)

Giants (88-74)

Rockies (87-75)

Diamondbacks (86-76)

Dodgers (83-79)

Yes, you heard it here first. Or possibly second. San Diego is BACK baby! They've got a solid lineup, top to bottom. They've got a solid rotation, top to bottom. They've got a healthy Trevor Hoffman, top to bott... uh, well you get the idea. This is a lineup, with Giles/Nevin/Burroughs/Klesko, that can certainly score some runs, but more importantly, might save a few. All four of them are pretty solid defensively, with Burroughs one of the underrated third baseman in the majors. As for pitching, all they really added was David Wells, but when you're talking about a veteran lefty who just flat-out does not walk people, and who has had six straight 15+ win seasons when healthy (bad back cost him about 15 starts in 2001), then you're adding a lot. And once again, a good veteran pitcher who can offer advice and coaching tips to the younger kids on the staff is always handy.

The Giants could win this solely because Barry Bonds will walk about seventeen thousand times this year, since he has no protection AT ALL in that lineup. But eventually someone will have to pitch to him, like Roy Oswalt did Opening Day, and Barry will do what Barry does best; hit the ball REALLY hard. But this is not a team that can really be anticipating another division title, simply because they don't have enough support for Bonds, and they don't have the pitching. They only have one good starter, and he's injured. Their star closer hasn't thrown a live pitch since Game 6 of the 2002 World Series. This is a team that might contend for the wild card, and will certainly have an outside shot at the tightest division race in baseball, but they won't make it. Let's see what Bonds can do when the games don't matter anymore (Think Sosa in '98)

As for the biggest surprise, I think it's the Rockies. They have no pitching, but in Coors, it's like throwing BP anyway. What they do have is a rededicated Larry Walker, a bulked up Todd Helton, and Vinny Castilla looking to prove he's still got something left to offer. Not to mention Charles Johnson (anybody remember this guy?) at catcher, Jeremy Burnitz in right and Preston Wilson in center. Aaron Miles is going to be fun to watch mature, and Shawn Estes and Jason Jennings both looked great so far. So why isnt anyone else paying attention? Because in this division, a couple of wins or a couple of losses could really swing you to the penthouse or the outhouse. But I think this team could be this years Marlins; the team that, ironically, entered the league with Colorado back in 1993.

Then there's the D-Backs. Not that I'm complaining, but it's too bad for Arizona that Curt Schilling agreed to the trade. Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb won't be able to carry this team very far, although Johnson is throwing like a madman again, and intimidating a whole new generation of professional hitters. As for offense, it's pretty much Richie Sexson, Luis Gonzalez, and Steve Finley. But they do have Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, and Donnie Sadler, just in case the entire team gets transported back to 1994 and has to play a game.

And finally, the Dodgers, A.K.A. the team that couldn't hit themselves out of a wet paper bag. They've got some great pitching, although losing Kevin Brown and Paul Quantrill is going to hurt a lot. But the team's leading hitters now are Shawn Green, Paul LoDuca, Juan Encarnacion, and Milton Bradley. Ouch. Really, I've got nothing else. Ouch.

AWARDS

AL MVP - Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez

NL MVP - Barry Bonds (duh) or Scott Rolen

AL Cy Young - Curt Schilling or Pedro Martinez

NL Cy Young - Randy Johnson or Roger Clemens (Yikes! Tough choice)

AL ROY - Bobby Crosby or Joe Mauer

NL ROY - Miguel Cabrera or Aaron Miles (also watch Adam LaRoche and Johnny Estrada)

AL Manager of the Year - Terry Francona or Alan Trammel

NL Manager of the Year - Bobby Cox or Dusty Baker

PLAYOFFS

ALDS - Boston over Chicago (3 games) / New York over Oakland (4 games)

Sooner or later Oakland will learn how to get out of the first round. But it's looking more like later.

NLDS - Houston over Philadelphia (5 games) / Chicago over San Diego (3 games)

San Diego had a nice run, but it won't be enough to overcome Chicago's pitching. As for Philly, well at least they made it, right?

ALCS - Boston over New York (6 games)

Revenge is a dish best served cold, and in Boston, it's pretty damn cold in October.

NLCS - Chicago over Houston (7 games)

Clemens and Maddux will have at least one duel for the ages in this one, but it will be the Cubs bats that prevail.

World Series - ...

God, this is tough to call. I can't, in good conscience, pick against Boston. But the Cubs's pitching is just too damned good. Last year, I was ecstatic when Florida beat Chicago, because I was certain we could beat the Marlins, but not the Cubs. And even with all of this season's additions, I'm still not convinced.

Chicago over Boston (7 games, 12 innings in game 7)

What can I say, I'm a Red Sox fan at heart, and we're all cynics by nature. I'll believe it when I see it. Actually, I probably wouldn't believe it even then.

As for my reaction if the above is correct, I don't think I could handle another Game 7 loss. So if this comes true, please make sure I have someone to console me and carry me home... again.

posted by Big D @ 12:00 AM