2004 MLB Preview
First off, I apologize for not writing last week. I just started a new job, so I spent all of last week adjusting to a normal life again. Tough to remember how to do the little things, like actually setting an alarm clock, not just getting up whenever Bob Barker comes on. (It's...A NEW CAR! Love that.) One thing I have to say for my job though; I LOVE my commute. I'm so used to working in and around
OK, so I know I promised all of you a little insight into the NCAA tournament finish, but to tell the truth, I have nothing to say about it. I love college basketball, and this was one of the most boring tournaments I can remember. Almost everyone who was supposed to win did just that (which destroyed my brackets), with the exception of
I also promised one person in particular that I'd write about a charity basketball game I attended, and don't worry, that's coming up soon. But not today.
Today, I'm going to reevaluate my position on a few things in MLB, as well as declare my position on a few things in this upcoming season. Simple as that.
First, before I go changing my opinions, let me say that this column was actually typed about three weeks ago, but I decided to save it for a while, and then update it today. I don't want people giving me shit about being a bandwagon jumper (No, I'm not picking the Tigers as World Series champs based on their sweep of the Blue Jays). And I don't want to hear that I'm changing predictions because of events that have transpired in the first week of the season.
I am, however, reevaluating the predictions I made about a month ago, just days after Greg Maddux signed with the Cubs. So, without further ado, I bring you my 2004 MLB predictions update, this time with explanations. But this is the last time I'm changing them, until the next time. Hopefully not before the break.
AL East:
Red Sox (101-61)
Yankees (98-64)
Blue Jays (85-77)
Orioles (80-82)
D-Rays (72-90)
Not a homer pick here. Great pitching (Sox) beats great hitting (Yanks, O’s), and great hitting (Sox, Yanks) beats good pitching (Yanks, Jays). This is a very simple concept: This division plays each other like 19 times per matchup. That means that the Sox and Yanks each get about 57 games to beatup on the Jays, O's, and D-Rays. But the 19 games Head to Head will decide this division.
I expect both
Last year my friend Don had a great philosophy about how the ALCS was going to play out, and he was almost right. The Red Sox and Yankees were so evenly matched all year that going into the ALCS, the Yankees led the season series 10 games to 9. Just before Game 1, he said that the Sox would win in 7, because that would put the season series at 13-13, with
Most improved team will be the D-Rays, with an offense that is actually capable of putting up runs, although don't be surprised if a couple of them are moved around the trading deadline.
Biggest disappointment is the Orioles, who went out and tried to sign every free agent available, and while they did a nice job getting Tejada, Lopez and Palmeiro, they completely neglected a pitching staff that was sorely in need of help. Getting Sidney Ponson back was not the solution to all of the problems still lingering on.
Finally, the Blue Jays get caught in limbo again. They've got the complete package to compete in any other division. Hell, they'd be odds-on favorites to win the AL Central. But in this division, with this competition, they're just an also ran. Don't be surprised if Carlos Delgado is a Dodger by the deadline, if the Dodgers can compete.
AL Central:
White Sox (88-74)
Twins (85-77)
Indians (80-82)
Royals (80-82)
Tigers (70-92)
Yes, that is a 70 in the Tigers' win column. They didn't do much this past off-season, but what they did do was significant. Pudge, Fernando Vina, Ugueth Urbina, Carlos Guillen and Rondell White comprise a pretty decent set of veterans to surround a very young team looking for direction. The Tigers pitching staff wasn't that horrible last year, despite having two 20-game losers. Sure, they allowed a bunch of runs, but there were a lot of errors too, plus
But it won't be enough, not even in this division.
The Twins are going to be hard pressed to reach the 85 wins I'vee got there for them. I think it'll end up being closer to 80 than 85. No proven closer, a decimated bullpen, and the hitting was never all that impressive to begin with. Their streak ends this year.
Unfortunately, the Royals peaked last season. That's not to say they'll go back to their losing ways, but I don't see them getting any better. They made smart moves by retaining Mike Sweeney and Carlos Beltran, and adding Juan Gonzalez might just push their offense over the top. And their starting pitchers would DOMINATE the AL East (Opening Day rotation - 5 lefties, 0 righties). But I don't see them being good enough to take the division anymore. Don't ask me why, but I've got a feeling. I almost put them behind the Tigers, so what's that tell you?
Finally, we have those loveable Tigers. The Cubs aren't loveable losers anymore, so it's the Tigers' turn. They'll do much better than last season (which shouldn't be that hard), but don't expect playoffs too quickly. Plus, although they signed Oogie, so have a couple of other teams over the past few seasons. He's made it well known that he's a hired gun, and he'll probably be dealt by the deadline. Look for
AL West
A's (99-63)
Mariners (98-64)
Angels (98-64)
Rangers (72-90)
Talk about parity - I honestly see this as the tightest division in baseball, because unlike the AL East, these guys only have one patsy to pound on. Sorry
As for
NL East
Phillies (100-62)
Marlins (92-70)
Braves (88-74)
Mets (87-75)
Expos (76-86)
I've only got two teams projecting to 100+ wins this season, and now you know who both of them are. The Phillies have only one thing to worry about this season: themselves. They've got the offense. They've got the pitching. They've got the defense. They've got the relievers. Unfortunately, they've also got the most neurotic manager in the bigs, with Lou Pinella a close second. If Larry Bowa can keep his cool, and this team can forget about last season, they've got no reason not to dominate this division.
The Marlins were a nice story last year, and God knows that just about everyone was much happier to see them win the Series than the Yankees. But here's a great thought from last October that I heard on a local radio call-in show. The guy called just before Game 1 of the World Series, and asked the loyal
More importantly, these are not the same Marlins. Yes, they'll have great pitching. Yes, the majority of their team is intact. But they lost three key figures from last year's team: Pudge and Oogie are in
These Marlins aren't going to sneak up on anybody, either. I wouldn's be surprised if they and
As for
The Braves still have a solid offense, anchored by the Jones' and Marcus Giles, and with the addition of perennial "Comeback Player of the Year" contender J.D. Drew, they've actually got a shot to score as many runs as last year. Javy Lopez was a big loss, but don't look for too much of a drop between the numbers he put up and what Johnny Estrada will do. Maybe not as much power, but this is the only guy the Braves asked for in the Kevin Millwood trade. In my time as an
The Mets, well they're still the Mets. They got hugely better this year, and if Kaz Matsui adjust to New York as well as Hideki Matsui did last year, they might be better than anyone imagined. The double-play combination of Reyes to Matsui is really going to be fun to watch, almost as much as Nomar to Pokey (whenever that happens). Don't be too surprised to see Mike Piazza back behind the plate for a good chunk of the year; I caught a couple of Mets spring training games and he looked worse at first than Mo Vaughn used to.
Once again though, this team didn't add much to their pitching needs. They got Matsui and Cameron to shore up the middle of the field defense, and those additions will help this underachieving staff. Leiter and Glavine still have something left in the tank, and although I'm not totally sold yet, Jae Seo and Aaron Heilman don't look too bad, as far as young prospects go. But let's see where this team goes from here; they've got half the pieces in place.
And then we have the orphans of Major League Baseball, Les Expos. I've got to admit, at this point I wouldn't care if they contracted
NL Central
Cubs (99-63)
Astros (97-65)
Cardinals (95-67)
Reds (80-82)
Brewers (78-84)
Pirates (68-94)
This is the most lopsided division in baseball. At least in the others, there's a slow dropoff from really good to really bad (except the AL West?ugh). Well, here it is, the good, the, well no, just the ugly.
The Cubs are going to the World Series this year. I know I originally said it would be
Same goes for
As for the last three, well there's not much that can be said.
NL West
Padres (90-72)
Giants (88-74)
Diamondbacks (86-76)
Dodgers (83-79)
Yes, you heard it here first. Or possibly second.
The Giants could win this solely because Barry Bonds will walk about seventeen thousand times this year, since he has no protection AT ALL in that lineup. But eventually someone will have to pitch to him, like Roy Oswalt did Opening Day, and Barry will do what Barry does best; hit the ball REALLY hard. But this is not a team that can really be anticipating another division title, simply because they don't have enough support for Bonds, and they don't have the pitching. They only have one good starter, and he's injured. Their star closer hasn't thrown a live pitch since Game 6 of the 2002 World Series. This is a team that might contend for the wild card, and will certainly have an outside shot at the tightest division race in baseball, but they won't make it. Let's see what Bonds can do when the games don't matter anymore (Think Sosa in '98)
As for the biggest surprise, I think it's the
Then there's the D-Backs. Not that I'm complaining, but it's too bad for
And finally, the Dodgers, A.K.A. the team that couldn't hit themselves out of a wet paper bag. They've got some great pitching, although losing Kevin Brown and Paul Quantrill is going to hurt a lot. But the team's leading hitters now are Shawn Green, Paul LoDuca, Juan Encarnacion, and Milton Bradley. Ouch. Really, I've got nothing else. Ouch.
AWARDS
NL MVP - Barry Bonds (duh) or Scott Rolen
AL Cy Young - Curt Schilling or Pedro Martinez
NL Cy Young - Randy Johnson or Roger Clemens (Yikes! Tough choice)
AL ROY - Bobby Crosby or Joe Mauer
NL ROY - Miguel Cabrera or Aaron Miles (also watch Adam LaRoche and Johnny Estrada)
AL Manager of the Year - Terry Francona or Alan Trammel
NL Manager of the Year - Bobby Cox or Dusty Baker
PLAYOFFS
ALDS - Boston over Chicago (3 games) / New York over Oakland (4 games)
Sooner or later
NLDS - Houston over Philadelphia (5 games) / Chicago over San Diego (3 games)
ALCS -
Revenge is a dish best served cold, and in
NLCS - Chicago over
Clemens and Maddux will have at least one duel for the ages in this one, but it will be the Cubs bats that prevail.
World Series - ...
God, this is tough to call. I can't, in good conscience, pick against
What can I say, I'm a Red Sox fan at heart, and we're all cynics by nature. I'll believe it when I see it. Actually, I probably wouldn't believe it even then.
As for my reaction if the above is correct, I don't think I could handle another Game 7 loss. So if this comes true, please make sure I have someone to console me and carry me home... again.
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