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2005 NFL Season - Week 3 Picks

Alright, I guess I put this week’s picks off long enough. I tried to wait out the two games that have been pulled off the board – Jacksonville @ NYJ and Atlanta @ Buffalo, but since neither line has been reposted, I guess I’ll just have to wing it.

I’m coming off of a 7-8-1 week, putting me at 16-15-1 for the year. Hey, as long as it’s still above .500, I’m happy.

I’m also coming off of a 22-hour poker session at Foxwoods last night with a short 2-hour nap in my car as my only break, so let me apologize right away if this is disjointed or if there are multiple spelling errors. I’m just trying to get my picks up before I go to bed for 14 hours, waking up in time to go play my final round of golf for the year tomorrow. I won’t bore you with the gory details of the poker session – suffice it to say that stupid people with nothing better to do with their money should not be allowed to sit at my table and chase cards. There – I said it. Onto the picks...

Lines as of 5PM – Saturday, September 24^th:

Titans (+6.5) over RAMS – O/U (45.5): I just keep seeing the AFC versus the NFC, and unless the NFC team involved is the Eagles, Panthers, or perhaps now the Bears, I’m almost always going to favor the AFC. Plus, I really like the Titans’ defense. They’re getting back to the level of the 1999 team that came within one yard of a Lombardi Trophy.

EAGLES (-8.5) over Raiders – O/U (46): Wow – the Raiders are involved in a game with an O/U below 50? Well, now I’ve seen everything. I don’t have any reason to pick against the Eagles for awhile – they’re much better than I expected them to be. Quick aside: I had Terrell Owens in my fantasy football league last week. At halftime, he had 143 yards and 2 TD (to be fair, he had those numbers halfway through the 2^nd quarter). He gave me 26 points by the half – and then didn’t catch another pass. I still won, but I can’t imagine if he’d played the entire game...

BEARS (+3) over Bengals – O/U (39): I don’t care that the Bengals have blown out the Browns and Vikings. All I care about is that the current Bears’ defense is quickly bringing back memories of the comically good Bears’ defense of 1985. Granted, they haven’t exactly faced a superior offensive team (Washington and Detroit need not apply), but they’re at home and getting points, all the while watching their bandwagon make more and more stops to pick up supporters all over the Mid-West...

Jaguars (+2.5) over JETS – O/U (33.5) (numbers from ESPN.com Daily Lines): This is one of the lines that Bodog.com has pulled, meaning that I can’t bet on it. I’m not pleased. I’ve got no faith in the Jets anymore – Chad Pennington looks like he’s lobbing darts rather than firing a football. Miami should have been a cakewalk last week for them – instead they ended up winning by 10 thanks to a late-game Dolphins’ turnover. The Jets’ defense isn’t good enough to carry them, and their offense isn’t good enough to control games. 7-9 is looking more and more like the right number...

Saints (+4) over VIKINGS – O/U (44.5): Well, first things first – let’s grab that Over... OK, now for the game. After the debacle of an NFL game that took place in New York last Monday, you think the Saints aren’t going to be fired up for this one? More importantly, do you think that Daunte Culpepper will be? Two weeks into the year, and he already looks like he’s just playing for his paycheck....

Panthers (-3.5) over DOLPHINS – O/U (36.5): This is probably going to end up as the second most physical game of the week, if not the year. Nick Saban’s got the inside track on the Panthers, considering that best buddy Bill Belichick just watched his own team get smoked by Carolina. More importantly, the Dolphins aren’t very good...

Browns (+14) over COLTS – O/U (47): Showing a complete lack of respect for the Browns, the odds makers have apparently set the O/U at the point level that they expect Indy to reach by themselves. Something to keep in mind – the Patriots’ defenses that have confounded Peyton Manning for the past few seasons... well, those were designed and run by Romeo Crennel – new Browns’ Head Coach. I’m not saying that the Browns are winning this game, but they’ll probably keep it close...

BILLS (-2.5) over Falcons – O/U (36) (numbers from ESPN.com Daily Line): The second game that has been pulled by Bodog.com... Apparently Mike Vick’s injury is that important. Doesn’t matter – I’d take Buffalo with a full strength Vick anyway. I was watching the second half of the Seahawks/Falcons game last week with my friend Jay when Vick scrambled, spun around in the backfield, then fired a BB to a receiver in triple coverage who proceeded to make a great catch for a drive-saving first down. My response? “That right there is why I love and hate Mike Vick. I can’t even appreciate his amazing plays, because the result was more luck than skill. Such a terrible decision that was rewarded by a great catch...” I have no faith in the Falcons anymore, either.

Bucs (-4) over PACKERS – O/U (37.5): Wow. Did you ever think you’d see the day, during the Brett Favre era, when the Pack was so bad that they’d be underdogs, in Lambeau, to the Bucs? This is quickly devolving into a very, very sorry season for the Packers. Mike Sherman might be ushered out the door with Brett Favre...

SEAHAWKS (-6) over Cardinals – O/U (42): I’ve officially sworn off the Cardinals. I want to take the points so badly, especially because it’s Seattle we’re talking about here, a team that gives points about as often as Edgar Renteria has an error-free game in the field. But I just can’t. Arizona, you’ve lost me forever. (Reverse psychology alert! Reverse psychology alert!)

Patriots (+3) over STEELERS – O/U (42): I’m almost certain that this game is going to end up with more broken bones than points scored. This is going to be the Steelers’ first test since the Pats marched into Heinz field and dismantled then 15-1 Pittsburgh. Since then, the Patriots are 2-1 (with a Super Bowl title), and the Steelers are 2-0 without a win over a quality team. Sorry, I’m still taking the Pats until someone beats them. (No, the Panthers’ game doesn’t count. New England beat themselves with stupid penalties and turnovers. Carolina didn’t win; New England lost.)

49ERS (+6.5) over Cowboys – O/U (40.5): The only questions here are A) Which Niners team shows up? The team from Week 1 or from Week 2? B) When will the Cowboys choke this week? With 2 quarters to go? 2 minutes? Immediately after “...the home of the brave”? And C) Honestly, how many people are ecstatic that they got Drew Bledsoe as Mr. Irrelevant in their fantasy drafts? Don’t worry – #2 in overall passer rating - a little over 110 - won’t last...

Giants (+6) over CHARGERS – O/U (43): I’m letting myself get talked into this pick. All week, I’ve been saying “Chargers Chargers Chargers”. Then last night I talked to a Giants fan that actually made some sense (stunning, I know). He didn’t have any real pearls of wisdom, but he seemed to have a little more knowledge of the New York football Giants than I. Maybe it was the 6 cappuccinos. Maybe it was the fact that we were talking football at 4AM over a poker table. Or maybe he was wrong. But the fact is, I’ve got to respect a 2-0 team getting six and a half over an 0-2 team with a coach that is known for terribly underachieving.

Chiefs (+3) over BRONCOS – O/U (48): Oh, so close! No 50+ O/U this week. Oh well, I guess we’ll have to settle for the 2005 AFC West Champion Chiefs dismantling yet another division opponent on the road. The Chiefs look for real this year folks. And I know I’d pay good money to watch a blubbering Dick Vermiel win another Super Bowl and retire instantaneously.

Recap: Titans / EAGLES / BEARS / Jaguars / Saints / Panthers / Browns / BILLS / Bucs / SEAHAWKS / Patriots / 49ERS / Giants / Chiefs

Oh, and don’t forget the obligatory Bye (+6) over TEXANS mention. What a lousy team...

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 6:17 PM