Week 4 Picks
Week 4 Picks
It’s Week 4. I’m having a terrible season thus far picking against the spread (6-8 last week, 22-23-1 for ’05). Why not use this space to try and recap what we’ve learned so far into the NFL season?
n Green Bay is really, really bad. Some of us already knew this before the year started; others are just finding it out on their own.
n The theory of “The NFC can’t hold a candle to the AFC” isn’t holding much water right now. So far, there have been 10 AFC/NFC matchups – they’ve split them 5-5. If nothing else, that’s going to give me pause when I automatically take an AFC team in an inter-conference matchup.
n For as good as the Colts’ defense has been, allowing only 16 points combined over their first 3 games, the offense has fallen silent – scoring only 47. With wins against Baltimore & Cleveland among those first three games, I’d be a little more worried about he lack of offense than the revitalized D. Wait until they play a real team (ahem… New England, in Foxboro, in Week 9).
n No one in the NFC is really going to challenge Philly for that conference title this year. Tampa Bay will give a fight in the NFC title game, but that’s it.
n Teams that aren’t as good as the record says:
o Washington (2-0)
o Atlanta (2-1)
o Seattle (2-1)
o Miami (2-1)
o Denver (2-1)
n Teams that are better than their record would have you believe:
o Chicago (1-2)
o Carolina (1-2)
o Jacksonville (2-1)
o San Diego (1-2)
Alright, that’s enough Show & Tell for today. Let’s get in to some picks…
Surprisingly, there is only one road favorite this week (Indy @ Tennessee – no shock there)
I had a little fun this week. Before the injury reports came out, I went through the game and tried to set my own lines, just to see how close I’d be. Let’s just say that I should stick to picking games rather than handicapping them myself…
As always, home team in CAPS, and the lines are from ESPN.com’s Daily Line at 9AM, 9/29/05:
BENGALS (-9.5) over Texans – O/U (42.5): I believe in Cincinnati people. I don’t believe they’ll take the North from Pittsburgh in the long run, but I think the Bengals have the inside track to the wild card. Houston, on the other hand, sucks. Period. Terrible offense (and it isn’t/wasn’t the coordinator’s fault), the defense has never been good. And they still have to face Indy & Jacksonville twice.
Colts (-7) over TITANS – O/U (45): This is one of those sneaky over/under lines. If the Colts’ offense was just subdued by the tough defenses they’ve had to deal with (Jacksonville & Cleveland – not tough, but designed to stop Manning), Tennessee’s defense could get the distinct honor of being the first one to be absolutely lit up by Peyton, Edge, and the rest. But if Indy really is having issues, this game will be a lot closer than anyone thinks…
Chargers (+5.5) over PATRIOTS – O/U (47.5): Hold on… I’m just dodging lightning bolts… OK. Here’s the thing. I don’t believe that the Pats are losing this game. I do believe that Antonio Gates and LaDanian Tomlinson will torch them on the receiving end of the offense. No Rodney Harrison leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the field; one that I don’t think they’ll be able to fill. Pats by 4.
SAINTS (Pk) over Bills – O/U (39): This is just what J.P. Losman needs right now: an extremely emotional game against a team that is coming off of a very poorly played road game and will be very charged up for this one. I say Kelly Holcombe is in the game by the third quarter.
Rams (+3) over GIANTS – O/U (47): If Mike Martz has any semblance of a brain, he’ll look at how the Chargers dissected the Giants’ defense last week – run it hard, throw it deep. We should see a healthy dose of Steven Jackson and a lot of downfield sideline shots to Tory Holt & Ike Bruce. Of course, this is Mike Martz we’re talking about. More than likely, it’ll be short passes over the middle all day long, and he’ll forget Jackson’s jersey number by halftime.
BUCS (-6.5) over Lions – O/U (34.5): Well, I’m definitely suggesting the Over. More importantly, I’m having a hard time with my fantasy team. I really want to start Michael Clayton in this game, but I can’t bring myself to rely on Brian Griese. Instead, I’m starting Santana Moss vs. Seattle, relying on Mark Brunell. God, I should just forfeit the week now…
REDSKINS (-1.5) over Seahawks – O/U (36.5): Two mediocre (at best) offenses, one solid defense, one bad defense. This is an absolute toss-up (note the 1.5 point line). I’m basing this simply on the fact that Seattle is coming off of an extremely easy home win vs. Arizona, and has to travel across the country to face an above-average defense coming off a bye week. I think that’s good logic, don’t you?
JAGUARS (-4) over Broncos – O/U (36): Talk about a letdown game for the Broncos. They get a huge win at home, on Monday Night Football, against a longtime division rival. Now they have to travel ¾ of the way across the country, on a short week, to face a very good Jacksonville team... I mean, how often do the gambling gods give you a gift like this? More importantly, how many more “G-Words” could I have put into that last sentence?
Jets (+7) over RAVENS – O/U (30.5): OK, hear me out. The Ravens are coming off a bye week, so the traditional thinking would be that they’ve had a lot of time to prepare for the Jets. Plus it’s in Baltimore, so they have the home crowd and no flight. And finally, the Jets just lost their franchise QB and the backup QB, meaning they’re starting a guy who’s thrown all of 9 career NFL passes. Most people would take the Ravens and lay 20 points. But I think the Jets will surprise people in this game, keeping it close if not winning outright (remember – Baltimore’s offense is abysmal, too), spawning days of “Who needs Chad” talk all over the tri-state area. At least until next week…
FALCONS (-6) Over Vikings – O/U (44.5): Last week was a big win for both teams, but I’m putting a little more stock in Atlanta’s win, on the road in Buffalo, with a gimpy Mike Vick against an opportunistic defense rather than Minnesota beating up on a weary and pretty depressed New Orleans squad in the Metrodome. Let’s see Culpepper put up some numbers against an actual defense this week – then maybe they’ll return to respectability in my book.
CHIEFS (NL) over Eagles: There’s no line posted anywhere for this game right now, so I’m going to take a guess and put it at Philly (-4). No matter – I think the Chiefs win this game outright. They were flat out embarrassed in Denver last week, and their defensive holes were exposed on national TV. Philly is coming off of a very close game against a team that they should have crushed, plus they’re missing David Akers – by far the second best kicker in the NFL. He and Vinatieri are on a level by themselves. That’s a big loss going on the road to one of the most hostile stadiums in the NFL.
Cowboys (+3.5) over RAIDERS – O/U (46.5): Damnit, give me another 50-point Raiders O/U! I demand it! Oh well. The Cowboys showed a lot of heart bouncing back from the 4th-quarter debacle against the Redskins to hake a little comeback of their own last week against the 49ers. Interestingly enough, if they win this game, the Cowboys will have swept the state of California this year, having already beat San Diego & San Francisco. Too bad L.A doesn’t have a team…
49ers (+2.5) over CARDINALS – O/U (42.5): In what is sure to be the ugliest game of the week (yes, worse than Redskins/Seahawks), both teams will cough up leads in the last 10 minutes of the game. In overtime, there will be a missed field goal, a TD called back on a penalty, and finally a safety to end the game. Or maybe San Francisco will just blow the Cardinals out. I really have no idea.
PANTHERS (-8) over Packers – O/U (43): The single most inconsistent team in football this year, Carolina should have no trouble holding the Packers down on Monday Night. Green Bay might just luck out this season – if they are bad enough, they might be able to force Brett Favre to retire, leading to Aaron Rodgers and whichever hot prospect wide receiver emerges from this year’s draft class (Reggie Bush, anyone?)
Recap: BENGALS / Colts / Chargers / SAINTS / Rams / BUCS / REDSKINS / JAGUARS / Jets / FALCONS / CHIEFS / Cowboys / 49ers / PANTHERS
In other news, I will be completely unavailable for anything this weekend. Between Saturday work, Sox/Yankees, football, and the Sunday Poker Night, I’m tapped.
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 11:00 AM
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