The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

NFL Picks - Week 5

NFL Picks – Week 5

Alright, I guess I have to say something about the mess on Wednesday night. I could take the easy way out and be the 105,472th person to make the Bill Buckner analogy, or maybe write the typical pun of Tony “Gaffe”-anino. But no, I’ll tell you exactly what I’m feeling.

I’ve been something of a recluse since watching yet another ball take a bad hop and stay down on a Red Sox infielder in a key spot in a playoff game. So here’s all I have to say about it: Aside from being up 2-0, there’s no place I’d rather be as a Red Sox fan than on the brink of elimination.

Since 1999, the Red Sox are 11-2 in elimination games. They came back from 0-2 in the ’99 ALDS, 0-2 in the ’03 ALDS, and of course, 0-3 in the ’04 ALCS. Here’s my favorite number – in the last five playoff series that the Red Sox have won, they’ve won by some form of sweep. They won three straight in ’99 to come back in the ALDS against Cleveland before losing to the Yankees in the ALCS (including the game that I famously slept through). They won three straight to come back in ’03 against the A’s in the ALDS before Aaron Boone broke the collective hearts of New England. And then last year, they swept the ALDS in 3, had to win 4 straight to fight back in the ALCS, and then swept the World Series.

I wouldn’t put it past them to do it again.

But I’m also not making any plans to be in Boston for the ALCS this year. Not yet…

Onto the picks. Bad, bad week last week (I KNEW I was going to get screwed over on the Monday Night game…). 5-9 in Week 4, 27-32-1 for the year. Much like the Patriots, I’ve got plenty of time to right the ship. But also much like the Patriots, I don’t think I’m going to end the season as well as I predicted back in August…

As always, home team in CAPS, and the lines are accurate as of 8AM Friday, from ESPN.com via SportsInteraction.com

Patriots (+3) over FALCONS – O/U (44): The Patriots don’t lose two in a row. Period. The thoughts of having to stop the Atlanta running game without Richard Seymour on the line scare the hell out of me, but as I’ve said in the past, until I see it, I’m not betting on it. The Pats will not lose two straight.

Dolphins (+2.5) over BILLS – O/U (34.5): Miami’s in first place. Wow. And this is the last game without Ricky Williams in the lineup. They can only continue to play well, or at least for as long as Gus Frerotte forgets that he’s Gus Frerotte. Buffalo is changing quarterbacks, relying on longtime backup Kelly Holcombe. So the question is – which crappy quarterback do you trust more?

Bears (+3) over BROWNS – O/U (36): How are the Browns favored in this game? Is the Dawg Pound really still a place that opposing teams are afraid to play in? I mean the Browns are still the Browns. And the Bears, for as bad as they looked in their last game, still have more than enough defense to win this game outright.

Ravens (+1) over LIONS – O/U (33): OK, four games, four road underdogs. Either I’m crazy, or the odds-makers are having a bad week. Actually, considering my record so far this year, I’m going with “I’m crazy”.

PACKERS (-3) over Saints – O/U (41.5): The sad thing is, I already placed my bets for the week, and I never even considered taking Green Bay in this game. So what changed my mind? Gut feeling, I guess. The Packers made a nice little run late on Monday Night, and against a bad New Orleans defense, they should be able to continue that run for four quarters on Sunday.

RAMS (-3) over Seahawks – O/U (49.5): Ooooh – almost the 50-point O/U! Can’t get any closer, I guess. And since Oakland’s on a bye, I guess this will be the highest O/U of the week. By the way, if you think I’m using this space to make a joke about Mike Martz and his heart, you obviously underestimated me. Let’s just wish him a speedy recovery so he can get back on the sideline, calling the wrong plays and looking at himself in the mirror.

Buccaneers (-3) over JETS – O/U (32): OK, first things first – take the over. I understand that the Jets’ offense is non-existent, and the Buccaneers are hurting. But Vinny Testaverde will at least provide the threat of a passing game to open things up for Curtis Martin. And Michael Pittman is a serviceable option until Carnell Williams gets healthy. The Jets should be able to score 10 points, and even with the Caddy in the shop, Tampa Bay can put up 24. In fact, let’s just call this one for the Bucs, 24-10.

Titans (+3) over TEXANS – O/U (40.5): Geez, one little blowout by the Colts once and suddenly you’re an underdog to a winless team that has zero offense. C’mon – does anybody believe that Houston really figured anything out on their bye week? Has David Carr morphed into Peyton Manning overnight? Hell; has he even morphed into Matt Hasselbeck or Marc Bulger? They still have no offense. They still have a sub-par defense. Sorry – I don’t like their chances…

Colts (-15.5) over 49ERS – O/U (46.5): This line has already shifted 1.5 points towards the colts – what are the odds that it’s at 20 by game time? I honestly hate laying 15.5 points, on the road. But the 49ers have a rookie QB making his first start, and his most important lineman, the left tackle who has to stop Dwight Freeney all day, is a backup making his first career start. What’s the record for sacks in a single game?

Eagles (-3.5) over COWBOYS – O/U (44.5): Now that’s the Drew Bledsoe we’ve all come to know and loathe. If he shows up again for this game, Philly wins by 21. If we see the Drew Bledsoe of weeks 1-3, this game is close. Maybe even within a touchdown late in the game…

BRONCOS (-7) over Redskins – O/U (34.5): I really want to take Washington in this game. I’m convinced that the Broncos are winning these games with nothing but smoke and mirrors. They’ve got no marquis running back, no star on defense, and a mediocre QB that I’d swear is schizophrenic based on his career game-to-game numbers. Yet somehow they’re 3-1. And the Redskins still have no offense – only Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland and Houston have scored less this year. And although they have allowed the second-fewest points in the league, I just can’t trust them in Mile High. The Broncos take a commanding lead in the AFC West after this one.

Panthers (-2.5) over CARDINALS – O/U (43): The Cardinals offense looked pretty decent after two early turnovers last week, but their defense looked even better. Unfortunately, the Panthers are not the 49ers. Carolina, and big.

Bengals (+3) over JAGUARS – O/U (37): This is the toughest game of the week for me to pick. I can’t decide if the Bengals are for real, and I’m even more torn on just how good (or bad) the Jags are. I’ve got to think that Jacksonville isn’t as good as I thought, considering the home loss to Denver. But the Bengals really haven’t played anyone yet. Let’s put it this way – I’ve got nothing riding on this game.

Steelers (+3) over CHARGERS – O/U (45.5): Hmm. Let’s see. The Steelers have one of the best-run defenses in the league. They’re rested coming off of a bye week. And they’re still pissed about the Patriots game two weeks ago. The Chargers rely heavily on the run. They’re probably emotionally drained after a huge win in New England last week. And they’re fighting for position in their division. I’m taking the Steelers, and laughing all the way to the bank. Although, this is a Monday Night game, so chances are the Chargers will win by 21.

RECAP: Patriots / Dolphins / Bears / Ravens / PACKERS / RAMS / Bucs / Titans / Colts / Eagles / BRONCOS / Panthers / Bengals / Steelers

On a personal note… if you’re ever going to see me on ESPN’s coverage of the World Series of Poker, start watching this coming Tuesday. ESPN begins airing the Main Event Tuesday at 9PM and 10PM, and although the day I played in won’t air until October 18^th at 9PM, I’m sure they’ll show Phil Ivey in the intro for every episode. Considering the fact that I spent 8 hours staring at him from across the table, there’s a good shot I’m in there too.

See, this is why I really wish I had a TiVo.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 9:04 AM