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NFL Picks - Week 6

NFL Picks – Week 6

Hmmm. Week six. It’s amazing, when you think about it, that five weeks of the NFL season have already passed. Leaves are changing, linemen are breaking down, the cycle continues…

6-7-1 last week, 33-39-2 on the still young season. I’m just waiting for one of my patented 12-2 weeks to pull out of this mini tailspin.

Of course, I fully expect that week to come when I have don’t have enough in the old checking account to put anything on the games. Like this week…

All lines accurate as of 8AM Thursday, from ESPN.com via SportsInteraction.com:

Falcons (-5.5) over SAINTS: This game is going to get ugly, and quick. If Mike Vick is out, expect Matt Schaub to stand in the pocket and absolutely pick apart the Saints’ defense. If Vick plays, expect him to run for about 125 and a touchdown, but the game will be much, much closer.

STEELERS (-3) over Jaguars: Although, honestly, it should read something like this:

STEELERS w/Big Ben (-3) over Jaguars

Jaguars (-6) over STEELERS w/o Big Ben

Dolphins (+4.5) over TAMPA BAY: Another game where the injury report will determine the outcome. With Cadillac, Tampa probably wins (but it stays close). Without him, the Dolphins win outright. The bigger story, though, is the return of Ricky Williams and his effect on the Dolphins’ running game. Personally, I’m benching Ronnie Brown.

Browns (+5.5) over RAVENS: Is this really the same Ravens team that I picked to win the division and advance all the way to the AFC Title game? See kids, let this be a lesson to you – don’t write drunk. And don’t EVER bet on Anthony Wright and/or Kyle Boller. Not that I’m real happy about having to rely on Trent Dilfer…

BEARS (-3) over Vikings: Hold on a second. The Vikings were involved in two of the biggest off-season stories this year – the Randy Moss trade and the Mike Tice ticket-scalping debacle. Now, they book a cruise boat, hire strippers and possibly hookers, in their own names no less, and wonder why their season is in the toilet? This is not a healthy way to spend a bye week. Why not try to figure out where your offense went? Gawwwd – do I even have to explain why I’m picking against them now, and probably forever…?

Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS: Giants coming off a bye week, with two full weeks to prep for the Cowboys… Dallas coming off a hugely emotional win over the Eagles that involved a mini blow-up between star QB and star WR… Aside from the in-fighting, this sounds strangely like the Pittsburgh/San Diego game from last Monday Night…

Panthers (+1) over LIONS: I have absolutely zero respect for the NFC North leading Lions. They haven’t got a good win yet. They are missing two of their top three receivers. Joey Harrington is still Joey Harrington. Carolina, although erratic, should still be able to take this game.

Bengals (-3) over TITANS: I think Chad Johnson might have taken last weeks’ loss just a little bit too hard. I also think that he’s going to have to have a monster game this week in order to regain a little of his street cred after breaking down in tears following the three-point Sunday Night loss to Jacksonville. I’ll pencil him in for 9 catches, 135 yards and 2 TD’s, and pencil the Bengals in for a 31-10 blow-out…

Redskins (+5.5) over CHIEFS: I learned my lesson – if nothing else, the Redskins are going to keep every game close. By the way – I think that Washington proved more to me by coming back in a loss on Sunday that they had in their three previous wins by a combined six points. In fact, they’ve played four games that have been decided by eight total points. That alone should tell you that if you see a line involving Washington above about 3.5, jump on it…

Chargers (-2.5) over RAIDERS: Nope, Oakland’s not getting win #2 this week… More importantly, did you realize that Kerry Collins has yet to throw an INT? Who predicted that one? (Put your hands down – NO ONE saw this coming…)

Patriots (+3) over BRONCOS: Four weeks ago, people in New England were saying that if the Pats came out of this stretch at .500, it would be a victory. Now there’s a chance that they could come out of it at 4-2, which would be a major coup. Think about it: Five games, @Carolina, @Pittsburgh, vs. San Diego, @ Atlanta, and now @Denver. That’s ridiculous. With a bye next week and a relatively easy schedule in the second half of the season, a win this week would lead a lot of people to believe that a 14-2 season is not out of the question…

Jets (+3) over BILLS: It wasn’t pretty, but the J-E-T-S eeked one out last week. More importantly, expect Curtis Martin to have a big, big day against a porous Bills’ defensive line. They allowed another 100-yard rusher last week in Ronnie Brown, and if not for a late-game fumble, probably would have had to go to overtime to get that win. In this battle of over-rated, journeyman backup QB’s, I’m taking the one with more experience, a better arm, and a better supporting cast.

SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over Texans: Here’s the thing – Seattle’s not that good. But if they keep getting to play teams with no defense and even less offense (Houston, Arizona twice, San Francisco twice), they’re going to back-in to a Wild Card spot. In fact, if St. Louis doesn’t find a way to stop them in their next meeting, Seattle’s going to be the crappiest division winner in the NFL since, well, last year’s Seahawks…

Rams (+13.5) over COLTS: I just don’t like give up 14 points to a team with an offense as good as the Rams’. For as much as I can respect the Colts this year, I just can’t get over the fact that, at any given time, they could revert back to the Colts of old. This is Indy’s first real test of the season – let’s see how they react.

Recap: Falcons / STEELERS / Dolphins / Browns / BEARS / Giants / Panthers / Bengals / Redskins / Chargers / Patriots / Jets / SEAHAWKS / Rams

Aw crap. That’s way too many road teams for one week. Looks like next week will be my 12-2 breakout.

Before I go, a little reminder. Next Tuesday at 8PM will be the first chance you’ll ever have to see yours truly on national TV that didn’t involve some sort of car chase or criminal activity. ESPN, 8PM, WSOP Main Event Day 1c. If I’m ever going to be on, this will be the day. Hopefully, it won’t be the last time I’m on national TV for non-criminal activity…

And finally, the return of The Quote of The Week:

I’ve got so many to choose from, most of which came from an excursion with a couple of buddies to the local Chinese Buffet restaurant. But no, this week’s award returns to the originator of the space, my mother…

While watching Game Three of the Sox/Sox ALDS last Friday:

Mom: “Why don’t they put in that young kid to pitch?”

Me: “You mean Jonathan Papelbon? He is pitching”

Mom: “No, I know Papelbon’s in there. What about the other one – I think the

announcer said his name was ‘Jonathan Applebaum’…”

Me: (through laughter) “Congratulations ma – you’ve officially made my blog once

again…”

Sometimes, it’s just too easy.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 9:22 AM