NFL Picks – Week 9
NFL Picks – Week 9
Before I break into the picks, a few words on the departure of Theo Epstein from the Red Sox GM position. I think that it’s all pretty much been said at this point, so I’m not going to rehash all the old theories of why he left, whose fault it was, etc. Just this:
Theo was the architect of the first World Series Champion in Boston in 86 years.
Was he infallible? Not even close (see: Jeremy Giambi, Byung-Hyun Kim, Keith Foulke, Edgar Renteria).
Was he extremely talented at what he did? Absolutely (see: Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar circa 2003, David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, and the entire farm system).
Are the Red Sox better now as an organization than they were when he came in? Undoubtedly. And that’s really all that we, as fans, should care about. Theo was something of a caretaker for the organization. He stepped in to a great situation in 2003, got as close to the top as he could, found and addressed the teams’ weaknesses to get to the top in 2004, and rather than panic and succumb to the pressure in 2005, he kept the farm system intact and still created a playoff-worthy (if still a “first-round sweep”-able) team without mortgaging the future.
Theo will be missed. But he left the organization in such good condition that the Red Sox – though maybe not World Series contenders in 2006 – should be firmly entrenched atop the mountain for a long time over the next decade. What more could we have asked for?
Alright, onto this week’s picks. Thanks to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ complete inability to shut down a team that had zero offense and was missing its two best defensive starters, I was a mediocre 7-6-1 last week. Shockingly, it’s the first time I’ve had back-to-back winning weeks. Also, thanks to the Steelers, my car repairs will have to wait another week or so. Last week was U-G-L-Y for me from a betting perspective. During the week, I had 9 different bets (parlays and teasers) that were one game off. Four of them involved the Redskins, four involved the Steelers, and then the infamous University of Tennessee debacle…
Anyway, this week I’m much more confident. There aren’t too many big lines, which is a scary thing. Makes picking games a lot tougher. Give me a week full of 8 or 9-point lines to tease rather than a bunch of 2 or 3 pointers any week.
As always, the lines are from ESPN.com’s Daily Line via SportsInteraction.com. And everything’s accurate as of 8:30AM today.
DOLPHINS (+2) over Falcons: I don’t know, something just tells me that the Dolphins have an upset in them this week. Atlanta isn’t stopping the run well, and with the one and a half-headed running back combo of Ronnie Brown and what’s left of Ricky Williams, they should be able to rack up some yardage.
VIKINGS (+2) over Lions: Here’s what I think happens. Brad Johnson steps in, the Vikings go on a sick run to the top of the NFC North, and make it to the NFC Title game. Daunte Culpepper is traded in the off-season, perhaps to the Raiders to reunite with Randy Moss (although more likely to the Jets, Bears, Dolphins or Cardinals), and Minnesota promptly falls off the football landscape in 2006. Alright, so most of that probably won’t happen. But for this week, they come up big against a lousy Lions team.
Chargers (-6) over JETS: Opening with three straight home underdogs would have been a bit too much, especially with this game.
JAGUARS (-13) over Texans: Here’s the thing. Jacksonville has this nasty little habit of playing down to the level of their opponent. This is an extremely talented football team that doesn’t seem to give 100% every week, taking plays off and basically doing just enough to win. Their losses came to two superior teams – a close game at Indy and a bad loss to Denver – and then last week, coming off a bye, when they got embarrassed by a completely inferior squad (@St. Louis). If they play to the level of the Texans, this will be a 6-point game. If they play like they know they can, they shouldn’t win by less than 17. Either way, tease it (Jags down to –7 or Houston up to +20) just to be safe.
Bengals (-3) over RAVENS: Um… this line is ridiculous, plain and simple. Of course, I thought that Baltimore would roll over and play dead for Pittsburgh last week too, so what the hell do I know…
Titans (+2) over BROWNS: Let’s see, the Browns just coughed up a game to the Texans, becoming the answer to the trivia question “Who was the only team that the Houston Texans defeated in 2005”. That’ll be on Stump the Schwab within five years. On top of that, Cleveland looks to be headed straight for a QB controversy. One more loss (say, to a 2-6 Tennessee Team?) and we’ll have full-fledged screams from Cleveland fans for Charlie Frye under center by the next game. By the way – has there ever been a team that employed a “home QB” and a “road QB” like the Titans seem to be doing this year? That seems like it would be another fun trivia question. Sorry, I’m rambling again…
Panthers (-2) over BUCCANEERS: Further proof that you do actually need a functional QB to succeed in this league, the Buccaneers have traded for Tim Rattay to take over when Chris Simms inevitably falls on his face. As if Rattay is an upgrade or something. Get ready for the Crappy QB Controversy in Tampa!
CHIEFS (-5) over Raiders: Let’s just say that Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson should have a combines 250 rushing yards by the end of the third quarter. And Randy Moss will probably have, oh, let’s say 190 yards on 12 catches, and 2 TD’s. I think what I’m trying to say is this – this game is a fantasy dream and a gambler’s nightmare: an absolute shootout that might come down to who has the ball last. I hope its KC.
Bears (-3) over SAINTS: (Line from Bodog.com) Hmmm… a great defense and a lousy offense traveling to the pseudo-home of a mediocre offense and a terrible defense. I don’t know about you, but I’m taking the Under (34) and laughing all the way to the bank. This game just screams 17-10, max.
Seahawks (-4) over CARDINALS: Do you realize that there are 10 home underdogs out of 14 games this week? That is obscene. It’s like the handicappers are trying to drive me insane. Anyway, the Seahawks are coming off a bye, and Shaun Alexander is working closer to a new contract. Anybody think he won’t have a gigantic game?
49ERS (+10) over Giants: As much as I like the Giants chances this year (I mean, how many times does a team get an extra home game?), they are atrocious on the road. Plus, this is a cross-country trip. PLUS, it’s a trap game for New York, with the Vikings coming to town next week. PLUS, San Francisco’s defense is actually pretty underrated. PLUS this is a great line to tease up to +16. And I’m all out of ways to change the word “plus”, so let’s stop there.
PACKERS (+6) over Steelers: Although, once again, it should read like this:
Steelers (-3) over PACKERS: If Ben is healthy and plays
PACKERS (+3) over Steelers: If Ben isn’t 100% or isn’t in the game.
I think the handicappers just split the difference, gave the Packers a ton of points, and are relying on another Brett Favre implosion (which isn’t happening, by the way) or another idiotic fan to run out of the stands and keep the game at 7-points.
REDSKINS (-2) over Eagles: OK, let’s see. The Eagles can’t run the ball at all. So let’s take their best receiver out of the mix and put them against another blitz-happy, run-stuffing defense and see just how well they handle it. Oh, and by the way, they have to play on the road against a team that has nothing to lose and everything to gain, with the loser falling to the basement in the division. And over the next two weeks, they’ve got two divisional rivals to look forward to (Dallas, @NYG). Good Luck boys!
Colts (-3) over PATRIOTS: I have absolutely no idea how New England won that game last week. Seriously – I was in my car listening to it on the radio, and the Pats were down 16-7. I stopped for gas and to go to the bathroom, got back in my car, and it was 21-16. Wha?!?! Anyway, for as much as I believe in past history defining future accomplishments, this will be the time that the Patriots don’t have enough schemes to take Peyton Manning out. Sure, they’ll blitz the hell out of him, and he’ll hand off to Edge. They’ll stack the line, and he’ll go long – probably about 10 yards deeper than Duane Starks is playing (what a terrible acquisition, by the way). If they play a deep zone, Manning will dump over the middle to Clark & Stokley, or Edge on check-downs. It’s simple, the Patriots don’t have the horses this week.
And if you don’t think I’m in full “reverse psychology to drive that line up above 7 so I can tease it to double-digits” mode, you obviously don’t know me.
Recap: DOLPHINS / VIKINGS / Chargers / JAGUARS / Bengals / Titans / Panthers / CHIEFS / Bears / Seahawks / 49ERS / PACKERS / REDSKINS / Colts
Best lines to tease by 6:
DOLPHINS (+2 to +8)
Chargers (-6 to Even)
Texans (+13 to +20)
CHIEFS (-5 to +1)
PACKERS (+6 to +12)
49ERS (+10 to +16)
Colts (-3 to +3)
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 9:30 AM
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