NFL Picks - Week 11
Week 11 Picks
If there’s one thing I’ve learned in my 24+ years on Earth, 23.5 of them as a Red Sox fan, it’s that nothing ever gets done easily, and nothing ever gets done without a couple hundred thousand people on the radio, TV or in newspapers giving there opinion. Because of these two things, very rarely does anything ever get done right.
Once again, the Red Sox have found a way to take a perfectly simple problem – hire a new GM, and supremely mucked it up by running every possible move past the court of public opinion before anything gets done. So far, there have been about 20 names mentioned as possible replacements for Theo Epstein, including Theo himself. Of those 20, half of them were probably nothing more than pie-in-the-sky, pipe dream type of names, again including Theo himself.
A handful of those considered have withdrawn their names from consideration before ever really being considered. And a few other names that would be bold statements (not to mention pretty good GMs) haven’t even been brought up – most notably Dodgers Assistant GM Kim Ng. And so, as a Red Sox fan, I’m left with the possibility of my beloved team being run by one of two candidates. The first is Jim Beattie, who has most notably run the Expos into the ground before going to the Orioles and wildly overpaying for just about everyone he signed, with the possible exception of Miguel Tejada. And the second, Jim Bowden, is a local boy who doesn’t like much media interference (uh oh), and has previous experience killing the Reds organization before moving to the Nationals last year and actually doing a halfway decent job with what he was given.
Of course, there’s always the possibility that they stick with the “Gang of Four” as it’s come to be known around here – the four Assistant GM’s under Theo Epstein who represented the Red Sox at the GM meetings earlier this month. We all know how well Closer by Committee worked for this team in 2003 – I don’t think the “GM by Committee” is such a good experiment…
Of course, I’m available for an interview if needed… Hey, I can’t be any worse than Chuck Lamarr or Dan Duquette.
OK, on to the picks. 7-7 last week, moving me to 68-70-6 for the season. Gawd – am I going to be stuck in .500 Purgatory forever?
Lines accurate as of 8:15 this morning, and all from PinnacleSports.com via ESPN.com’s Daily Line (SportsInteraction.com has too many lines pulled right not to be effective)…
RAMS (-9.5) over Cardinals: Even with that papier-mâché defense that the Rams run onto the field every week (wait a minute – did a Patriots fan just insult someone else’s defense? Wow…) the Cardinals offense is bad enough for me to feel comfortable with this line. I’d feel better about teasing it down to Rams (-3.5), but I’ll give the 10.
Saints (+9.5) over PATRIOTS: This is the classic example of New England sports fans devaluing their hometown teams. I know the Pats are winning this game. I know it shouldn’t be close (although Miami shouldn’t have been close either). Yet I still can’t bring myself to lay 10 points on them. And I can’t believe that I’d rather rely on Aaron Brooks to keep a game close than on Tom Brady to blow a team out. Just shoot me now.
GIANTS (-7) over Eagles: Two words – Mike McMahon. OK, maybe a couple more words. Mike McMahon, on the road, against a Giants team that got embarrassed last week. OK, that’s enough words.
REDSKINS (-6) over Raiders: If the Redskins can drop 35 on the Bucs on the road, what’s the limit on points they can put up this week? The Over Under for the game is 43 – I’d be surprised if there weren’t 55 points scored in this game.
Steelers (-3.5) over RAVENS: In the ugliest offensive game of the week, the Steelers win, 19-10, on a late TD return off of a Kyle Boller fumble. All points in the game are scored on defense or through long field goals – Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu both return interceptions for TDs, while the Steelers also get a safety when Jamal Lewis actually decides to run the wrong way to ensure that his yards per carry stay below 2.0.
FALCONS (-6) over Bucs: For the last three weeks, I’ve used the same line about the Falcons – “Michael Vick will find a way to keep the other team in the game”. Well, not this week. The Bucs defense got absolutely ripped by the Redskins last week – especially Clinton Portis. Vick might throw a bad pick or two, but he’ll also run for about a buck and a half and two TDs.
BEARS (+3) over Panthers: The Panthers are actually one of the worst teams after November 1st since 2001, or so the radio guys tell me this morning. Now put them on the road, against one of the top three defensive teams in football, and outdoors in weather that ain’t exactly like Carolina this time of year. Sure, Kyle Orton is prominently involved in this formula, but I think he can handle it. This game goes down one of two ways – Chicago by a little, or Carolina by a LOT.
Dolphins (+1) over BROWNS: I want to pick the Browns in this game, I really do. But at the end of the day, they just won’t be able to stop the Dolphins’ running game. Plus, Gus Frerotte just passed for 360 yards against the Patriots – he’s gotta be able to put up at least 290 against Cleveland, right?
COWBOYS (-9) over Lions: There was no reason for the Cowboys to win that game last Monday Night. Luckily, in this game they don’t have to deal with a blitz-happy defense (or any type of defense, for that matter), so Drew Bledsoe should be able to throw for 350 and a couple TDs.
Jaguars (-4) over TITANS: Finally, a nice blowout win for the Jaguars. And now they get to beat up on the, well, beat-up Titans. With or without Fred Taylor and his gimpy whatever-he-hurt this week (seriously, this is probably the only professional athlete that gets injured more than me. Maybe Allen Iverson.) the Jaguars should be able to win by seven or more.
Seahawks (-12.5) over 49ERS: Shaun Alexander’s final line after this game: 271 yards rushing, 5 TDs. Cody Pickett’s line after the game: 3-32, 38 yds, 4 INTs. Hey, they’ll both have career games!
BRONCOS (-12.5) over Jets: There’s a typo on my sheet here that says the line had dropped from Denver (-13) to Denver (-2.5). I’m assuming that it’s supposed to be (-12.5). Or maybe the Jets just resigned Joe Namath and (while drunk) he guaranteed a victory, so the line shifted accordingly.
BENGALS (+5.5) over Colts: And they’re going to win it outright. In the first actual test of the season for Indy, they’ll go down in flames. The teams that the Colts have played thus far in the 2005 season have a combined record of 26-55. And although the Bengals’ opponents haven’t been much better at 33-48, I have faith in them. Plus, Chad Johnson guaranteed that he would not be stopped this week – that’s gotta be good for something, right? Not to mention the 38-0 drubbing that Cincinnati gave the Colts in the Preseason…
CHARGERS (-10.5) over Bills: Hmm… the Bills can’t stop the run. The best running back in the game is playing a home game after a bye week… If Tomlinson doesn’t bust out for at least 170 and a few TDs, I’ll be stunned.
Chiefs (-6.5) over TEXANS: Do you think that the Texans are taking out an insurance policy on Matt Leinart and Vince Young right now, just to be safe?
Vikings (+4.5) over PACKERS: Disgusting as it may be, both of these teams have a chance to still win the NFC North. True, Green Bay is all but done at 2-7 and four games back right now, but Minnesota still has a pretty decent shot to catch the Bears. The Vikings are 4-5 and only two games back – a couple of divisional wins and they’re right back in the hunt. And we’ll be treated to an extra month of boat jokes…
RECAP: RAMS / Saints / GIANTS / REDSKINS / Steelers / FALCONS / BEARS / Dolphins / COWBOYS / Jaguars / Seahawks / BRONCOS / BENGALS / CHARGERS / Chiefs / Vikings
Best lines to tease by 6:
RAMS (-9.5 to –3.5)
PATRIOTS (-9.5 to –3.5)
Panthers (-3 to +3)
COWBOYS (-9 to –3)
49ERS (+12.5 to +16.5)
BRONCOS (-12.5 to –6.5)
BENGALS (+5.5 to +11.5) – just in case…
CHARGERS (-10.5 to –4.5)
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 9:07 AM
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