Week 11 Recap
Quick Thoughts while wondering if the entire world is against me…
OK, before the quick thoughts, I need to update you guys on some of the worst luck in the history of mankind. Seriously – I can’t even explain what’s going on right now. And yes, most of this has to do with the game of poker, but not all, so if you don’t want to hear about it, just skip down a few lines…
Since the beginning of October, I’ve been playing some of the best poker of my life. I’ve been reading people, whether online or live, extremely well. I’ve been playing my cards, and yes, occasionally even getting lucky – although in the grand scheme of things, not really. I’m talking about things like hitting a straight when I’m open-ended off the flop, not things like losing with quads (which happened to me again last week).
Also since the beginning of October, I’ve suffered some of the worst beats imaginable. To run them down quickly:
n A-9 vs. 10-10. I hit 9-9-9 on the flop – big pot and a big win. Running 10’s on the turn and river to cost me the pot (and a hefty sum of money)
n Pocket queens – raise pre-flop, one call. Flop 7-8-4 with 3 hearts. I bet, he raises, I go all-in, and he calls with 9c-10h. Turn is a 9 (I’m now only a 60/40 favorite), river is a heart. Figures.
n Pocket Queens – raise pre-flop, two calls. Flop 8-4-Q rainbow. I bet it out, get raised. I go all-in, and get called immediately by A-Q. Running aces on the turn and river (this one actually caused some damage in my house, as I threw anything near me that was light enough to toss around at 5AM). This single pot was enough to pay the deductible for the damage to my car three times over.
n Saturday, I played in a local charity tournament against possibly the worst field I’ve ever seen. And the worst dealers I’ve ever seen (passing 4th grade math should be a prerequisite for dealing any type of poker tournament, charity event or not). We were averaging nine hands an hour. NINE. Even places that charge “time” rather than raking pots still get 20-25 hands an hour in… Anyway, third in chips at my table, (and in the small blind after a double-up with pocket kings) I hold 5-4 off-suit and have no intentions of calling a raise. Luckily, the action comes to me for only and additional 250 in chips, so I call. And the big blind goes all-in (only 300 more chips), so with four other callers, I call. The flop is 2-3-6, all spades. I flop the nut straight. Checks around. The turn is a five, and, confident no one has a flush already, I push all-in and get one caller – he has the Ace of spades. The river falls – 4 of hearts – and we end up with 2-3-4-5-6 on the board – my nut straight. I go from flopping the nuts to a four-way chop pot. Can’t get any worse, right? Oh no. Two hands later, I get A-Q suited on the button (the guy to my left had just been eliminated, so the button stayed on me) with two callers to me. I raise all-in, and get the same two callers. They had Q-8 off-suit (?!?!) and QK suited (slightly more respectable). Naturally, the flop hit with a King and an Eight, and I went home.
And then there was yesterday. You see my luck doesn’t just suck at the poker tables. There’s also the world of football betting to crush my spirit a little more every week.
That’s where the Jacksonville Jaguars come in to play. Leading 21-31 with less than a minute to go, and well within the (-4) cover, the Jaguars decided that a 3-point win is a win, nonetheless, and gave up the ultimate garbage-time touchdown – a pass into the end zone with 10-seconds left in the game to pull Tennessee within three points and blow my cover.
More importantly, it was the only game I missed in a five-way parlay, a 9-way teaser, a 10-way teaser, and a 7-way parlay. Total amount spent in those 4 bets: $75. Total amount lost when the Jaguars coughed it up: well over $5k.
And that is how my weekend went.
Thank you for allowing me to vent. Now, onto the real “Quick Thoughts” for today…
n I take no responsibility for my picks in the Miami/Cleveland and Seattle/San Francisco games. Both games featured late breaking QB changes that would have completely changed my picks. Sage Rosenfels? C’mon. More importantly, the Niners not having to rely on Cody Pickett meant actually having someone under center that had some idea of how the position is supposed to be played. The instant I realized Ken Dorsey was playing, I knew it would be close. Maybe not 2-points close, but close, nonetheless. For me, there were only 14 games this week, not 16. Those two are mulligans.
n Minutes before the Jaguars massive choke job, I was staring at my laptop cringing as David Akers had a 38-yard field goal to pull the Eagles within seven points against the Giants and kill the 7.5-point cover. 38 yards for David Akers is a chip shot. Luckily, Akers didn’t get that message, and yanked it, causing me to jump up from my seat and start celebrating – I had the Giants, Dallas, Chicago, New Orleans, and the Jags parlayed together and I was positively giddy about my win; I mean, there’s no way that Jacksonville could cough up the cover in the last thirty seconds, right? Right?
n Man, the Bills looked bad.
n And the Panthers don’t look like much of a Super Bowl contender anymore, do they?
n Does this mean that SEATTLE is now the odds on NFC favorite? Yikes…
n I don’t care if it’s Indy, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Denver, Cincinnati, or even New England coming out of the AFC – there is NO TEAM that will compete with them in the Super Bowl.
n At one point in the New England / New Orleans pre-game show, the FOX color analyst casually called Joe Horn “Broadway Joe”. In related news, my buddy Vinny’s head exploded shortly thereafter.
n Think about this – at the end of the regular season, two of the following teams will not be in the playoffs: Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Kansas City, Denver and Cincinnati. Any one of those teams could breeze through the NFC playoffs…
n I was impressed by:
o Indianapolis. Alright, I’ll admit it. The Bengals pick on Friday was more heart than brains. But if the Colts really are this good, then they deserve to win ‘em all this year. Who else is looking forward with anticipation to the Colts/Seahawks game late in the year as the Super Bowl preview?
o New England. More specifically, Bill Belichick. His father died the night before the game, and he showed up, ready to work, and coached his team to a big victory to seize complete control of the division. Talk about mental toughness…
o Chicago. The Monsters of the Midway are back people, and they’re serving notice to anyone who will listen that they are not to be taken lightly.
o San Diego. If they’re not the best 4-loss team in football, I can’t imagine who is. Take away the blocked field goal vs. the Eagles and the games they coughed up in the last minute against Pittsburgh & Denver, and they’re 9-1 right now. At least they learned how to close out an opponent this week…
o Cleveland. Boy, when they actually get some offense to go with that defense, they’re going to be scary. Next season, when Braylon Edwards comes into his own, and Kellen Winslow (hopefully) returns from his “accident” (read: stupidity), with Charlie Frye under center and some decent run blocking, that team could make a serious wild card run.
n I was appalled by:
o The Rams. Let’s put it this way; the headline for ESPN.com’s recap of this game reads “Warner, Cardinals’ defense prove too tough for Rams”. That should tell you all you need to know about why I was appalled by this game…
o The Patriots’ Pass Defense. Gus Frerotte and Aaron Brooks have passed for 703 combined yards the last two games (360 for Frerotte, 343 for Brooks). Something ain’t right here…
o The Falcons. More specifically, Mike Vick and his questioning of the refs. Listen Mike – you coughed up the ball, you cost your team the game. Not the refs. His “well, we got more penalties than they did, so maybe the refs were against us” routine was just sad, and hopefully will cost him some serious cash.
o The Steelers. That’s a game you’ve got to win, whether or not you are relying on Tommy Maddox. If you don’t have faith in him, either put Big Ben back in or else give Antwann Randle-El the ball. Hell, ESPN.com’s users were more confident in Randle-El than Maddox in a Saturday poll – 67% - 33%. That’s just sad.
o The Redskins. The NFC East is now New York’s to lose…
o The Jets. Ugh… Boomer Esiason, in an interview with WEEI this morning, said that he’s hoping the Jets end up with the second pick in the draft, because he’s confident that they’d blow the #1 overall. Nice vote of confidence there for Gang Green. By the way – where can I get my day in the “When will Herm Edwards bolt for Kansas City” calendar pool?
n 7-8 so far this week (though, really, it’s 7-6. Remember, no responsibility…). Vikes (+4.5) over the Packers tonight doesn’t look so good anymore, but what the hell – I’ve only flip-flopped once on Monday Night this season, so why fix what’s obviously broken? I’m sticking with it.
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 10:02 AM
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