The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Week 2 Recap

Let me begin this edition of the quick thoughts by linking to a comment I made over on Sparty & Friends immediately following the end of the Chargers/Broncos game. I’m still too pissed off to retype the whole thing, but you’ll get the idea.

God I can’t believe how badly the refs blew the end of that game. Not to mention the blown fumble call earlier in the game, when the replay machine conveniently wasn’t working to overturn the call. I can’t even begin to describe how much I hate the Chargers (actually, I’ve done that before), but I have always hated the Broncos more. This just adds to it.

Other thoughts:

n Wow Seattle is bad. The Cardinals are the team to beat in that division. And they haven’t even played the Rams yet – there’s two more wins guaranteed.

n There’s a chance, albeit slight, that the Titans are the best team in the AFC South. With Kerry Collins as their quarterback. It actually seems weirder to see those words in print than it did to type them.

n Tarvaris Jackson. JaMarcus Russel. Kyle Orton. Chad Pennington. Jason Campbell. David Garrard. Tyler Thigpen (who the hell is Tyler Thigpen?!?). Brian Griese. Matt Ryan. JT O’Sullivan. Just thought I’d list all the NFL quarterbacks that took at least half of their teams’ snaps in Week 2, and that I currently trust less to lead an offense than Matt Cassel. Yes, I know four of them won their games this week. Doesn’t mean I trust them.

n The Jacksonville bandwagon might have gotten a little overfilled and slowed itself to a halt this week. But next week, when two-thirds of them jump off and hop on the Buffalo train, the Jags should start right back up.

n Actually, scratch that. Buffalo is starting the season at least 4-0, maybe 5-0 before they hit the bye week. They’ve got Oakland, St. Louis and Arizona coming up. Yikes. Jacksonville gets to follow up their horrible start with Indy, Pittsburgh & Denver (plus a bye week). Good God.

n Is it possible that Eli is the better Manning at QB right now? I’m just sayin… The Giants have had two pretty solid wins, while the Colts have a loss to the Bears (not looking too terrible) and a bad come-from-behind win against a very bad Minnesota team.

n The Packers are really, really good. Aaron Rodgers stepped in and hasn’t missed a beat. If they don’t win 12-13, I’ll be very surprised.

n Looks like the Pats aren’t going to face a real challenge until Week Six at San Diego. Of course, that begins an eight week stretch of games versus SD, Denver, Indy, Buffalo, the Jets and Pittsburgh. At least the October 26^th game against the Rams provides a virtual bye week. The game in Miami on 11/23 ain’t too bad either.

Alright, I’m out of steam here. And still pissed at Ed Hoculi. I’m going to bed.

Lata.

Labels: 2008, Gambling, NFL, quick thoughts, Recap, Week 2

posted by Big D @ 9:54 PM 1 comments

Week 1 Recap - So... about that Week One?

Not good times here in New England. The Patriots season appears to be over after eight minutes of Game One. At least the Red Sox are making a push to take back the AL East.

Here’s a handful of quick thoughts about the opening week of the NFL Season:

n Did I really say the Raiders’ offense wasn’t going to be as inept as in 2007? Really? That seemed like a good idea to put it in writing for all time? Hmmm… I should probably lay off the AM beers on post days.

n The Steelers look good. Like… really, really good. Like, might be the AFC favorites with a certain New England QB shelved for the next 12-18 months. Crap. Although, it was only the Texans that they beat up on.

n I’m astonished at just how bad the Rams are. On both sides of the ball. Donovan McNabb carved up their defense with his top two receivers out for the game. I’m starting to think the 2-4 record I predicted for St. Louis might have been generous.

n Might have been a bit premature to crown Jacksonville the best team in the AFC South. Although, at least they lost to a playoff team - Indy got their lunch handed to them by the Bears. That’s just inexcusable.

n Stupid Saints (-4.5) line costing me a 12-win week to open the season… damnit-all. The worst part - I set the line myself since it wasn't posted anywhere as of post time, and I still got it wrong! I suppose 11-5 isn’t all that bad. Of course, I don’t bet on weeks 1 and 17, so this was just a big waste for me. Hope you got something out of it.

n For the record, this year’s “Money Line system” went 10-6 in Week 1. Though I don’t think anyone would have chosen the Browns, Niners or Dolphins to win outright. Personally, I was 13-3 with no spread this week. I like those kinds of numbers.

n I’m not saying anything else about the Brady injury until the weekly picks on Friday after I say this – the instant it happened, I turned to my buddy Jay who I was watching the game with and said: “There goes the season. That’s at least an ACL, and maybe an MCL too.” As someone who’s had his share of knee injuries, seeing the type of hit and the way Brady’s leg bent inwards and then exploded out, there was never a doubt in my mind. Here’s hoping for a full recovery by training camp ’09 (though ACL’s usually take at least 18 months to get back the full strength – just ask Daunte Culpepper).

n Actually, 1 last thing. Damn my stupidity for not immediately jumping on Bodog to get a bet in on the Patriots’ “under” for season wins – it was still at ±12.5. I’m an idiot (like you didn’t already know that).

That’s it. Picks on www.spartyandfriends.com Friday afternoon.

Lata.

Labels: 2008, Gambling, NFL, quick thoughts, Recap, Week 1

posted by Big D @ 1:58 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Championship Round

So much to cover in such a short period of time. Before breaking into the picks, a couple of random thoughts from the past couple of weeks.

1) The West Coast is far too nice to ever visit without immediately wishing you didn't have to leave. I just came back from a five day trip to San Diego, where the average temperature was about 63 degrees, followed up by a return flight to Pittsburgh where the temperture was 23 with a light snowfall. And the doors & windows in my car were frozen shut. Guh. More on this discussion later...

2) Note to anyone out there who takes taxis regularly. If you happen to be in a situation where you might need to be in the cab for awhile, put in headphones. I found this out the hard way when I took a cab to the SD Airport Wednesday morning and decided to have a conversation with the driver rather than listen to the iPod. As soon as he found out that I worked in a hospital (my actual 9-5 job) he started asking medical questions. Which eventually led to him talking - albeit in fairly broken English - about his medical problems. Which then led to him asking for my opinion on different types of medications. I won't go into detail, but I'll tell you this - I should have stopped the conversation when he tried to ask about "Tapestries that you put in the richter..."

3) The Mitchell Report, the fallout, and the subsequent new round of hearings and FBI investigation into Miguel Tejada's responses to the government (?!?!) are an abolute joke. There is not one thing in the Mitchell Report that was "news". Not one name surprised me - including Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, or Brian Roberts. The fact that the US Government sees a need to intervene and waste time & money with rounds of hearings and investigations makes me unbelieveably angry, and sad. If I wasn't so apathetic about politics, I might consider doing something about it. Maybe a strongly worded letter...

4) I really can't stand watching NBA games anymore. You can watch 15 total minutes - the end of each half - and get the entire point of the game. Of course, as I write this the Bulls & Warriors are spending almost 15 minutes (with two commercial breaks and seven - seven - personal fouls) to play out the final 41.2 seconds of regulation in a game that is going to end as a Warriors win by 8 points. Insane.

5) I gave serious thought to driving home to Massachusetts tomorrow to surprise a couple of people this weekend for birthday parties, and to watch the AFC Title game with people who actually care about it. The average Pittsburgh fan has either switched into full Penguins-support mode (so Sidney Crosby's injury today may have thrown this city into a sports-depression until next year's Steelers mini-camps), or is actively preparing for the 2008 NFL Combine. I'm expecting it to be very difficult to find a decent place to watch the game Sunday, so I'll probably stay home and watching it in my bedroom. Again: Guh...

Speaking of the games, let's get down to the picks. Had an astonishing 3-1 week in the Divisional Round, pushing the playoff record to 5-3, and even correctly picked the Seahawks & Jaguars to each score 20 points. Of course, I also picked the Colts to win by 15 and the Giants to cover but not win outright... Hey, a win is a win.

Onto the games in this weekend's Championship Round. Lines from Bodog.com, and accurate as of 1AM Saturday Morning. I'm bored. Lots on my mind - might as well write. Home teams in CAPS, as always.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Giants: I actually like this line better at (-7) as it was a couple hours ago, and I like it a whole lot better at (-1.5) after it gets teased down. Either way, I think the Packers are the best team in the NFC, and have been saying that for about five weeks now. As much as the Giants are the NFC's hottest team for the past two months (12-4 since losing to the Packers in Week 2), they're not a better team that this incarnation of the Pack. Factor in the predicted weather conditions, the fact that every person outside of the tri-state area is pulling for Brett Favre, and that (even though he's been pretty good as of late) Eli Manning is still involved in the game, I can't pick the Giants to cover that line. Pick: Packers 34, Giants 23

Chargers @ PATRIOTS: You know, even as I was typing the Colts/Chargers pick from last week ("Not like I thought the Chargers had any chance of winning this game anyway, but the fact that Antonio Gates is "iffy" with a dislocated toe... no. Not happening. No cover, no way."), I was thinking to myself - if the Chargers somehow manage to cover or win this thing outright, I'm going to feel like an idiot. I even originally had a line written in about a reverse-jinx, trying like hell to have the Pats avoid the Colts in the AFC Title Game.

Then the improbable happened, and the Chargers shocked the Colts, and suddenly not only did I feel like an idiot, but I realized that the Patriots were hosting the AFC Title game, in 10-20 degree weather, against a San Diego team that could be missing any or all of Philip Rivers, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates. I even sent out a text message to a handful of friends on Sunday night that said “I’ll put the opening line at Pats (-21)”. I was only half-joking.

I was close. As of right now, it’s Pats (-14). And I’m completely torn on which side I’m taking.

First things first – I’m not making any proclamations about the Patriots invincibility and the inevitability of a win. Learned my lesson last week.

But in all honesty, what to make of that line, and this game? The Chargers are the hottest team in football not hailing from Foxboro. They’ve won eight straight, and with the exception of the overtime game in Tennessee in Week 14, none have really been close.

Gates will probably play. Tomlinson will probably play. Rivers isn’t practicing, and is rumored to have one sprained MCL and one torn ACL, but somehow he says he’s going to play. Not like he’s a mobile QB anyway.

On the Patriots’ side of the ball, not only does the implied “pressure” of 19-0 mount with every game, but now they have even more distractions to deal with in the form of assault allegations against Randy Moss.

(Quick aside: I just spent five days in San Diego, including Sunday when the Chargers upset the Colts. I know that most of this country despises Boston sports fans, if not Boston sports teams. But there is no group of fans more smug, more cocky, and more unlikable than Chargers fans. And to me, it stems from one thing – no matter how many times you tell them, they just don’t seem to get it: You ain’t won shit. Ever. Stop talking about your team like they’re the three-time reigning Super Bowl champs – the Chargers have won exactly six playoff games in their history since the 1969 merger. Six. In 38 years. I just don’t get it.)

This was already shaping up to be a pretty damned good game. The Chargers have payback on their minds not only for the thrashing the Patriots gave them in Week 2, but also for last years’ playoff loss. The Patriots have a date with destiny, and if there is one team that can overcome pressure and distractions, it’s this incarnation of the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots 27, Chargers 10

For the record, I’m ecstatic that I have no money on any game this week. Not only do I get the chance to enjoy one of the best weekends in quite awhile, but I don’t have to constantly run through scoring scenarios in my head for a back-door cover.

And finally, a quick life update. By Super Bowl Sunday on February 3^rd, I’ll be living somewhere else. Might be back in Massachusetts, might be in Vegas, California, Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Canada, New York, or any other possibility. (By the way – I listed those places in order of preference from best to worst… I shudder at having to live in Canada or New York). But wherever it is, it won’t be Pittsburgh. Things didn’t work out here, so I’m leaving by the end of this month.

Hopefully I’ll be settled in wherever I end up in time for the annual MLB Preview post. But whatever happens, I’ll keep up with posting here. I passed the four-year blogging mark back in October, and I like it so much, I’m going to shoot for five.

Back in time for SB XLII...

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 12:22 AM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Divisional Round

Ah mediocrity. "You don't have to be first, just don't finish last" My cousin gave me that advice back in high school, and I've more or less adopted it as my personal credo in life, work and picking football games against the spread.

I started this playoff season off 2-2 (though to be fair, the Jags' line moved from (-2) to (-3) only about 6 hours before I posted on Saturday... Jags(-2) would have been a push. But I digress), just after lamenting my innate ability to plow through four playoff seasons at exactly .500.

Meh. There's 7 games left in this playoff season. Let's shoot for... oh... five over .500 by the time we're done? Three? Not asking for much.

With four games this week, gamblers have one last shot for decent payoffs with parlays & teasers, not to mention the always popular (and rarely profitable) prop bets. I just hope I don't make the same prop bet mistake I made three years ago and fail to follow my instincts...

Let's just go into the picks for the week. Lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 5:45pm Wednesday (a little early this week... more details later). Home teams in CAPS.

PACKERS (-8) over Seahawks: Hardest line of the week for me to pick. I loved how the Seahawks looked last week, but let's face it - that was a home game, in the hardest stadium in the NFL for opposing teams, with Todd Collins under center on the other side of the field. This is a road game, in probably the second hardest stadium for opposing teams, with Brett Favre under center on the other side of the field. Not exactly the same thing. The biggest question I have is how a young team like the Pack will respond to having a bye week. Will they be refreshed or rusty? Although, when it comes right down to it... I just can't back a team whose kicker is wearing battery operated pants. Something inherently wrong about that. Pick: Packers 31, Seahawks 20.

Jaguars @ PATRIOTS: We'll come back to this one...

COLTS (-9) over Chargers: Not like I thought the Chargers had any chance of winning this game anyway, but the fact that Antonio Gates is "iffy" with a dislocated toe... no. Not happening. No cover, no way. Even with most of the Colts not really playing in about 10 quarters, they should be able to handle this week. Pick: Colts 28, Chargers 13

Giants (+7.5) over COWBOYS: No idea how effective Terrell Owens is going to be in this game. More importantly, the Cowboys aren't playing like the #1 seed in the NFC right now. Sure they laid down for the Redskins two weeks ago, and haven't really had a good game since they dispatched the Favre-less Packers in Week 13, or since they dismantled the soon-to-be 4-12 Jets in Week 12. On the flip side, the Giants have played pretty well since their Week 13 win @ Chicago (even though Eli Manning has been as inconsistent as ever). I’m backing the Giants, with a caveat – if T.O. is reported between now and Sunday to be at least 90%, I’ll flip to Dallas. His presence changes everything. Pick(s): Cowboys 23, Giants 17 OR Cowboys 34, Giants 13. I really think he makes that much of a difference.

Jaguars (+13) over PATRIOTS: Couple things to consider here. First – the Patriots haven’t really blown an opponent out since Week 11 against the Bills. They’ve won by 3, 3, 21, 10, 21, 3 against teams with a combined 38-58 record. The 21-point win against the Steelers was only a 1-point game at the half, and the other 21-point win was against the juggernaut 1-15 Miami Dolphins. Now, the Pats are not losing this game. Not at home, and not to this team. But I honestly believe that the Jaguars’ ability to run the ball should be enough to keep the Patriots’ offense off the field and keep this a low scoring game. Even with a week off, the Pats’ have one of the oldest linebacking corps in the league, something that cost them in the AFC Title Game last year and that could come back to bite them in the ass against a hard running team like Jacksonville. Pick: Patriots 27, Jaguars 20.

On a personal note… one thing above all else terrifies me about this Patriots’ game on Saturday. For the second time in three years, I will probably miss most of it. In 2006, I was on a flight from Providence to San Diego via Chicago for a yearly conference while the Patriots were getting hosed in Denver. It was the first time I had missed a Patriots playoff game in seven years, since a 1999 playoff loss to… the Jaguars.

Last year, I was scheduled to be on a flight during the second half of the AFC Championship game, but I missed the plane and was able to watch the game in its entirety. Didn’t work out so well. This year, I’ll be in flight to San Diego again, this time through Dallas, and will probably miss at least the first half of the game. Even though I’m usually not the least bit superstitious, I’m actually a little worried.

So that’s it and that’s all. I’ll be taking my laptop with me for my conference, so I might hop on and blog with thoughts. Let’s hope they’re good thoughts.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 6:03 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Wild Card Round

Ah, the second season. Where the mistakes of the past 4+ months are erased, and everybody's record is reset to 0-0. Where the real games carry a single elimination consequence. And where I usually stink up the joint.

I haven't exactly been outstanding picking playoff games against the spread in the first four playoff seasons since I started this blog. In the '04 playoffs following the '03 season, I finished 7-4. Not bad for a novice. The following playoffs yielded records of 3-8, 7-4 and 5-6, for a grand total of 22-22. Considering I've never had a regular season of .500 or less, I consider 22-22 a failure.

But then there's this year. I had my worst regular season so date, finishing 124-122-13. Although since there are only 256 games in an NFL season, I'm not quite sure how my record ended up with a total of 259 games. Never claimed to be good at math.

Let's get into the picks. With only four games on the schedule for this week and next, these are gamblers last chances to make real parlay and teaser bets. So let's not waste them, ok?

Lines accurate as of 12pm Saturday, and as always are taken from Bodog.com. Home teams in CAPS. And away we go...

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins: Considering the 3-point home teams' advantage... you really mean to tell me that the oddsmakers only think Seattle is a half-point better than Washington if this were being played on a neutral field? So, a team that was in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago is only a half point better than one being coached by a man whose was next in line for the axe five weeks ago? And a team with one former MVP and another former MVP candidate as their running-back and quarterback is only a half-point better than a team being quarterbacked by a career backup who hadn't started a game in 10 years? OK, you keep on thinking that - I'm taking the Seahawks in a rout: 31-14.

Jaguars (-3) over STEELERS: Ridiculous. This line opened at Steelers (-1) and has shifted four full points in a week. It's kind of funny, I live in Pittsburgh (albeit probably not for too much longer) - everyone I meet is ecstatic that their team is in the playoffs, and is 100% convinced that they're not getting past the Jags. That type of collective karma can't be good for a team; just imagine the first time the Steelers suffer a negative play tonight and Heinz field is completely deflated. It's like the old "just happy to be here" conundrum - the Steelers and their fans appear to be happy to have just held off the Browns for the division (something I didn't expect to be writing for at least three more seasons), and now are ready to pack it in for the winter and prepare for a long year of compalining about the Pirates. Add in the Steelers injury losses, and I'll take the Jags, but probably not by as much as some people would expect: 24-20.

BUCS (-3) over Giants: Hold on, I'm just finishing up my loan application so I can bet against Eli Manning in the playoffs on the road... Even with as well as he played in the game last week against the Patriots (and let's be honest, he was fantastic), I have no faith in Eli to continue that trend. And I have even less faith in him to do so with a backup center snapping him the ball. I expect at least one fumbled snap and probably three sacks that can be directly attributed to a missed call on the line. On Tampa's side of the field... just imagine if Jeff Garcia knocks the Giants out of the playoffs for the third time, with a third different team? How long before he ends up buried in the Meadowlands' endzone next to Hoffa?

CHARGERS (-10) over Titans: This line just keeps going up. I think it started around Chargers (-7) and it hasn't looked back. No matter - I'm pretty certain that San Diego should be able to handle a Titans team with either a gimpy Vince Young or a healthy Kerry Collins under center. I'm actually not sure which of those situations would be better for Tennessee. But if nothing else, take the Chargers' money line in this one which is currently at a ridiculous (-600). Might not pay out a lot, but it's a win.

RECAP: SEAHAWKS / Jaguars / BUCS / CHARGERS

Boring, I know. All favorites, and only one road team. For the record, taking the money lines on all the favorites in one Mega-Parlay would currently pay out at just over 4/1. All the underdogs? Just over 63/1.

Back with the Divisional Round games, and maybe even a final Rants & Ranks section. No doubt who is going to be #1 or #32, but what's in between might be a little fun.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 11:41 AM 0 comments

Week 16 Rants, Ranks, and Picks

I'm making blogging history here folks. Well at least I am on this page. Actually, not really. I've done this once before.

I'm blogging from the airport. (And a hearty "huzzah" comes from the crowd...)

Anyway, I'm flying back to Boston for the holiday, staying at home with family until next Wednesday. So obviously this week was been ridiculously hectic, topped off by a head cold that kept me out of work for two days, and a dislocated finger suffered through sheer stupidity on my part (big shock there). Anyway, what I'm trying to say is... I forgot to put up the weekly ranks on Wednesday. Or the pick for last night's Steelers/Rams game (though with a Steelers (-10.5) line, I was probably taking the Rams anyway... Let's just call it a loss.)

So, from the airport, let's get some abbreviated ranks and picks in here before I board my flight. By the way - for anyone familiar with Pittsburgh traffic... I left my office at 2:45 this afternoon... got to my apartment at about 3:15 (it's 1.2 miles away)... left my apartment at about 3:45... got to the exit for the Fort Pitt tunnel at 4:40 (it's about 7 miles from my apartment)... got through the tunnel at 5:12 (it's about 0.8 miles)... got to the airport about 20 past six. All told, it usually takes 45 minutes to get from my apartment to the airport... glad I left early for my 8:45 flight.

Onto the ranks, then the picks.

The Fave 5

1. New England (14-0): Picked them to win 20-3 last week, and if not fo a fluke blocked-punt-return-for-a-touchdown, they would have. Sometimes I even surprise myself.
2. Green Bay (12-2): Yes, Green Bay. I can't in good conscience put Dallas this high after the stink bomb against the Eagles. Indy rolled over to the Raiders, and probably won't play hard for another 3 weeks. And as good as Jacksonville has looked the past few weeks... I don't believe they could win in Lambeau right now. So that leaves Green Bay...
3. Jacksonville (10-4): But the Jags are just a hair behind the Packers.
4. Indianapolis (12-2): They've got no reason to play hard from now through January.
5. Dallas (12-2): I love the media hype over T.O.'s comments about Jessica Simpson. A caller on WEEI wummed it up nicely a couple days ago "Hey Tony, if you get depressed about everyone giving you crap about dating Jessica Simpson, just remember - you get to go home and f*** JESSICA SIMPSON". Good point by you.
Others receiving votes: Cleveland (they lock up a playoff berth with a win over Cincy this week... impressive stuff, even if they'll lose in Round 1), Pittsburgh (Didn't see it live, but Willie Parker's broken leg last night looked pretty gruesome), San Diego (The only team Cleveland has any shot at beating in the AFC playoffs).

The Foul 5

5. Oakland (4-10): Wasn't their defense suposed to be their strong suit this year? Really?
4. San Francisco (4-10): Damnit! Stop winning games and hurting the Patriots' draft chances!
3. NY Jets (3-11): Maybe it was just the weather, but they actually looked feisty last week. Shades of what could have been, you know, if they had a half-competant team.
2. Atlanta (3-11): Well, you certainly showed Bobby Petrino what he was missing out on when he left the team... oh wait - they lost 37-3? Hmm.....
1. Miami (1-12): Just imagine how bad they'll be the last 2 weeks with absolutely nothing to motivate them...
Others receiving votes: NY Giants (hard to put a 9-5 team here, but does anyone have faith in them in the playoffs? If they even make it...), St Louis (At 3-12 they should be in here, but thy played pretty well against a vastly superior Pittsburgh team last night), Baltimore (Absolutely no hope for this team...)



And quickly, some picks for the Week 16 games. Had a decent go of it last week, finishing 9-7 and bumping the overall record up to 112-104-11. And for the record, all 8 of my teaser specials hit last week. Naturally, I didn't bet it - $50 on an 8-team teaser pays out at about 35-1. You do the math...

Lines accurate as of 6:30pm Friday, and as always, supplied via Bodog.com. Home teams in CAPS.

Cowboys (-11) over PANTHERS: Seems like a good time for Tony Romo to shut up... oh... just about everybody. And two or three long TD passes to #81 oughtta do the trick.
Browns (-3) over BENGALS: This line is pulled as of right now, but I can't imagine why it's only -3 to begin with. The Browns are a far superior team to Cincinnati - remember when their first matchup seemed like an upset win for Cleveland?
Packers (-9) over BEARS: Three straight road favorites, two in hostile stadiums. This week is already shaping up poorly.
COLTS (-7) over Texans: Even without trying, the Colts should be able to beat Sage Rosenfels and the rest of the Texans. But Mario Williams might feast on Jim Sorgi by about the third quarter.
LIONS (-5) over Chiefs: Yeah, sure. Whatever. Who the hell is going to watch this game? I'd be interested to see the ratings numbers outside of these two markets. even the numbers in these markets will probably suck.
BILLS (+3) over Giants: New York needs to win back some respect from just about everyone. even their own fans have lost faith at this point.
Raiders (+14) over JAGUARS: Too many points this late in the season. Even against the Raiders.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Eagles: The Saints still have something left to play for - shouldn't they be a much bigger home favorite? Sometimes I just don't get what the oddsmakers are looking at.
Falcons (+10.5) over CARDINALS: Not sure if the Falcons will score more than 10 points in this entire game, but I've got to think they're more than a little embarrassed about how they played last week. If not, expect a 2TD+ line next week.
Bucs (-6) over 49ERS: C'mon Niners! I know you've got in in you! 2 more losses - you can do it!
PATRIOTS (-22) over Dolphins: Supposed to be lousy weather in New England again this week. Difference from last week - If Cleo Lemon gets hurt, Miami doesn't have a former pro Bowler backing him up.
SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Ravens: Is there anything more humiliating than being the only win on an NFL team's record for the year? I don't see Baltimore recovering, especially not at the hardest stadium in the NFL, with Kyle Boller under center.
Jets (+8.5) over TITANS: Another line that got pulled in the last hour. Still like the Jets here, if only because I don't like Vince Young.
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Redskins: Did we actually think Tarvaris Jackson would be able to ride that wave all the way to the postseason without a hiccup? Even worse - imagine if some "savvy" fantasy GM nabbed him on waivers for the fantasy playoffs... then had that stinkbomb in the first round?
CHARGERS (-9) over Broncos: If San Diego wins out, they probably get the #3 seed and legitimately scare me as a Patriots fan. Not as much as Indy or Jacksonville, but then again - those are probably the two teams the Chargers would have to beat to get to Foxboro.

RECAP: Cowboys / Browns / Packers / COLTS / LIONS / BILLS / Raiders / SAINTS / Falcons / Bucs / PATRIOTS / SEAHAWKS / Jets / VIKINGS / CHARGERS

One more week after this one. 20 games over .500 might be out of reach, but I'll be quite happy with 10 or 15.

Back after the holiday.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 6:06 PM 1 comments

207 NFL Season - Week 15 Rants & Ranks

Clearly, today is not the day to be discussing football. Maybe tomorrow with the rest of the picks. For today, let's just jump into the rants & ranks (oops... should have been up here yesterday. Sorry...) and the pick for tonight's Denver/Houston game and the Saturday Mega-Tilt between the 3-10 San Francisco 49ers (led by the immortal Shawn Hill under center, backed up by Chris Weinke) and the Cincinnati Bengals (they of the 5-8 record).


1. New England (13-0): Oops. Looks like somebody woke them up. Any doubt that 16-0 is pretty much sealed up at this point? Any doubt that they don't give a shit unless the season ends at 19-0?
2. Dallas (12-1): All I thought when I saw the final score of this game was "How in the hell did that just happen?"
3. Indianapolis (11-2): Not going to lie - if they get healthy before the playoffs, they still scare the hell out of me.
4. Green Bay (11-2): Playing the flotsam and jetsam of the league like Oakland certainly helps pad their stats, but this team is still pretty damned good.
5. Jacksonville (9-4): In the NFC, they'd probably be undefeated. This team is scary good on defense, and the offense is apparantely a lot better than I thought.

Others receiving votes: Pittsburgh (Only 1 game up on Cleveland now, with the Jags next on the schedule. Good luck with that), Seattle (So maybe they're not as paper thin as I thought they were...), San Diego (Philip Rivers needs to get his team a lead before the final drive of the game).


5. Baltimore (4-9): What a sorry excuse for a team they looked like last week. At least show up for one quarter guys...
4. Atlanta (3-10): I'm no Falcons' fan, but the screw job Bobby Petrino just pulled on those players, fans and owner is downright disgraceful. If you're a Falcons' fan right now, you've gotta think the season was being scripted by Vince MacMahon.
3. San Francisco (3-10): As above... they're starting Shaun Hill with Chris Weinke backing him up. I suppose it could get worse, though I'm not sure how.
2. New York Jets (3-10): Oh, now I know how - they cold be travelling to Foxboro to play a team hell bent on revenge, in a blizzard. I guess that's moderately worse.
1. Miami (0-13): I cannot express how much I want Cam Cameron not go to Michigan, but also to stay in the AFC East for a couple more years.
Others receiving votes: Cincinnati (somehow, 8-8 isn't out of the question for them), Chicago (Don't bother drafting a QB - send the '08 2nd and the '09 4th to Philly and get McNabb), Carolina (unless they're playing someone else on this list, they're not winning again in '07).

And quickly 2 picks for the "early" games this week. I was 10-6 last week to jump back up to 103-97-11 on the season. Slowly inching towards the 25-games over .500 goal...

Lines accurate as of 6:15pm Thursday night, and as always taken from Bodog.com. Home teams in CAPS.

Broncos (-2) over TEXANS: I have no idea what to make of either team at this point. Both are 6-7 and not making the playoffs at this point. The Broncos are completely schizophrenic; the Texans are relying on Sage Rosenfels at QB. Both teams dismantled what should have been tough opponents last week. And I can't even use the AFC vs. NFC argument. I guess I just trust Jay Cutler more than I trust Rosenfels. Even on the road.

Bengals (-9) over 49ERS: The Bengals get the Rams, Niners, Browns & Dolphins to finish the year. See what I meant when I said they had a legitimate shot at finishing 8-8?

That's it for tonight. Back tomorrow with the Sunday/Monday picks.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 5:44 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Season - Week 14 Rants & Ranks

Before jumping into this week's Rants & Ranks and the Thursday night pick, a quick sidebar about the MLB Winter Meetings - specifically, the rumored Johan Santana to the Red Sox deal.

Look, I'm a Red Sox fan. A pom-pom waving, Yankee hating, die hahd Sawx fan. So if that colors my opinion of this trade, than so be it. It's not like I've ever tried to promote journalistic integrity on this blog, or ever pretended not to be swayed by my "fanhood", as ESPN360 likes to call it.

To me, Johan Santana has the best track record of any pitcher under 30 that has come on the market in the past five years. Sure, there's the lingering question about how much money he'll demand, about the possibility of some upcoming shoulder troubles (Pedro, anyone?), and the ever present question of just how he'd fare in the Boston sports climate - something this current regime has been very, very hit or miss in judging. But his numbers should speak for themselves - in a rotation with Josh Beckett for the next however many years, the Red Sox would instantly have the best 1-2 combo in the majors in probably the past 10 years. Yes - better than Pedro/Schilling. Better than Randy/Schilling. Better than pretty much anything going back to the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz days of the mid-90's.

The holdup for Boston fans seems to be the inclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury in the trade to the Twins. Three things to consider here, at least for me: 1) Ellsbury has played two months at the Major League level. Sure, he "proved" he can play in Boston. Just like Shane Spencer & Ricky Ledee "proved" they could handle New York with their cup of coffee during the Yankees' dynasty. 2) He had a couple insane months, and was a catalyst in leading the Red Sox to another World Series title. But he also faced just about every team only once, meaning pitchers didn't have much of a book on him yet. Anyone who thinks he's keeping up a .353 AVG, .903 OPS, and the rest of the numbers extracted over 162 games (about 80 runs, 160 hits, 30 doubles, 12 HR, 80 RBI and 40 SB) is fooling themselves. 3) The final argument is always - "But he's got so much potential!" Listen - give me proven talent over potential any day of the week. If I can get a 2-time Cy Young Award winner with the talent to be a 20-game winner as the anchor of a team like the Red Sox, and the biggest piece I'm giving up is a very highly touted prospect with the chance to be a multi-time All-Star over the course of his career, I'm taking the veteran and wishing the prospect all the luck in the world.

Call it the curse of Jeff Bagwell, and to a lesser extent Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, David Eckstein, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, and every other "prospect" that has ever been dealt away for a proven veteran, then actually panned out into a very good Major League Talent. No matter how the veteran performs over the period of time he's here, the fans will always pine for "what might have been".

Just remember: for every Bagwell, Ramirez & Varitek, there are fifty Tony Armas' and Carl Pavano's - the two "centerpiece" prospects Dan Duquette traded for some guy named Pedro about 10 years ago.

The other thing to consider is that it's not exactly like the Red Sox are turning into spendthrifts anytime soon. If they were cutting ticket prices, taking less money for their TV deal, and trying to pare the payroll by relying more on guy still on their original minor league deals, then it would make sense to hold onto guys like Ellsbury & Ramirez. But as long as the Sox are still big players on every marquis free agent to hit the market, it's a little disingenious to say that they need to hold on to prospects. They've got the money, they've got the farm system talent - why not field the best team possible, instead of the best possible team for the price?

And before you say it - yes, I'm the same person who wasn't a big fan of the Hanley Ramirez / Josh Beckett trade two years ago. I'll admit it - I was wrong. Hanley is a supreme talent, but if you hadn't noticed... Beckett & Lowell aren't too shabby either.


Onto the abridged Rants & Ranks - that little MLB sidebar took longer (and more words) than I thought...


The Fab 5

1. New England (12-0): And... exhale. Even after the poor showings the last two weeks, they're still 11-point favorites against the Steelers as of this post. That's a lot of respect for a team whos offense has been cut in half the last two weeks, and who suddently seems to have forgotten how to stop the run.
2. Dallas (11-1): Pretty convincing win last week, and 10 days to prepare for Detroit this week. No reason to think they'll be any lower than the #2 spot next week either.
3. Indianapolis (10-2): There's the Colts team we've all come to expect every Sunday. Who the hell woke them up, anyway?
4. Steelers (9-3): Willie Parker terrifies me this weekend. What terrifies me more is that if they manage to win, I'm going to be in for some serious taunting for... oh, about ten months or so.
5. San Diego (7-5): Don't look now, but the Chargers have just about clinched the AFC West, and seem to be figuring it all out at exectly the right time. Even if Philip Rivers looks like a petulent three-year old who just got sent to a time-out.

Others receiving votes: Green Bay (Hope ten days is enough for Brett Favre, but if not, they should still handle Oakland with ease), Tampa Bay (talk about having a horseshoe up your ass... how the hell did they win that game?), Jacksonville (sooner or later, they've got to win one of those games with the Colts, and decisively).


The Foul 5

5. NY Jets (3-9): Only because they plastered a team below them by 27 points last week. By the way - I love Simmons' idea of the Patriots deactivating the punter (very last paragraph) before next week's game in Gillette. If only...
4. Atlanta (3-9): What a terrible way to follow up this week's outstanding MNF game - Falcons/Saints next Monday night. Looks like I'll be hitting the bed (or the bottle) a little early that night...
3. St. Louis (3-9): Remember when it looked like a dogfight for the #1 overall pick between the Rams & Dolphins? Now St. Louis might fall out of the top five - they're just that good!
2. San Francisco (3-9): Sorry... I just can't stop giggling thinking about who the Patriots will be drafting #2 overall... or just how many picks they'll be stockpiling in trades. They might get enough to start their film production company up again.
1. Miami (0-12): Pretty self explanatory. Don't remember where I saw it, but last week some TV announcer was looking at the Pats' remaining schedule (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, @Miami, @ NY Giants), and started calling out "That'll be close... that's a 50-point game... that's a hundred pointer... and who knows about that last one." Dunno - just made me smile for a long time.

Others receiving votes: Oakland (see, I complained about it long enough, and finally Jamarcus Russell found the field), Cincinnati (team in turmoil... I say Marvin Lewis gets one more year), Washington (probably unfair, but I don't see them winning one of their final four games - Chicago, @ NYG, @Vikings, Dallas).



And finally, the pick in tomorrow's Thursday Night NFL Network Game of the Week - Line from Bodog.com and accurate as of 7:30pm tonight... And I already kind of gave it away.

Bears (+3) over REDSKINS: They can't rely on the emotion from last week. They can't rely on having time to recover from the physical game against the Bills. They certainly can't rely on their offense (5th fewest points in the NFC) and now, obviously, the defense is worse. Just don't see them pulling it out.

Back Friday with the weekend picks.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 6:47 PM 0 comments

2007 Rants & Ranks - Week 13(ish) & Picks (Part Two)

Well, awful glad I waited until after last night's Cowboys/Packers game before jumping on and trying to setup the weekly ranks. Makes things a little bit clearer for me.

Since I haven't done this in awhile, there's a chance I might be a little rusty with these rankings. Are the Patriots still good? Are the Dolphins still bad? OK, I guess everything is normal...


1. New England (11-0): Even though they got a bit of a scare last week against the Eagles, they're still the clear-cut, undisputed, don't even think about mentioning another team in the same sentence, Number 1 team in the NFL. By the way - had I known that Donovan McNabb would be sitting and AJ Feeley would play last week, there's no way I would have taken the Pats to cover 24 points. I firmly believe that Donovan McNabb is actually bad for the Eagles at this point.
2. Dallas (11-1): Can't argue with the numbers - althought their passing defense might be a little suspect (20th in the league), their rushing defense, and both rushing & passing offense are all no worse than 11th. If Brett Favre misses any chunk of time, Dallas' path to Super Bowl XLIII looks pretty clear.
3. Indianapolis (9-2): I still think they're the biggest threat to the Patriots' run at history. Yet another Pats/Colts AFC Championship Game could either be the worst thing for the NFL, or the best thing we've ever seen as fans. If Indy's healthy, I'm leaning towards the latter.
4. Green Bay (10-2): ...Pending the status of #4. For as good as Aaron Rodgers looked after Favre went down last night, let's not forget that he was playing the 20th ranked passing defense in the league. Not to mention, the Packers' defense looked overmatched most of the night - although a couple crucial calls going the other way could have made all the difference.
5. Pittsburgh (8-3): I was on vacation when it happened, so I didn't get to treat this with the proper reaction, but... uh... HOW THE HELL DID THEY LOSE TO THE JETS? Good God - that's 100% inexcuseable! Arizona - OK, they had the ex-coordinators factor. Denver - The Broncos always play well on Monday Night. But THE JETS? That loss did more to reassure me that the Patriots will have an undefeated regular season than any Patriots' win.

Others receiving votes: Cleveland (If Romeo Crennel isn't the coach of the year, then there is absolutely NO sense to the voting process - and that's coming from an unabashed Patriots' fan), Jacksonville (Gonna be a fun game to watch Sunday), Tampa Bay (Abaolutely stunning that they're the 3rd best team in the NFC right now)



5. Oakland (3-8): I'll keep saying it until it happens - at what point so they let JaMarcus Russell step on the field and get some game action? I know they're technically not eliminated - 3 games back in the division with 5 to play - but is there really any chance they leapfrog three other teams?
4. NY Jets (2-9): Of any team in this half of the list, they've got the single best "quality" win. See #5 in "The Fave 5" for more information...
3. San Francisco (3-8): So, if the Jets and Rams manage to sneak out a couple more wins, and the Niners finish at 3-13, do the Patriots take Darren McFadden with the #2 overall pick in neat year's draft? Imagine that backfield for a second or three...
2. St. Louis (2-9): Just when they started to look competant on offense over the past few weeks, Marc Bulger gets hurt. Figures. Guess I'll be sitting Torry Holt & Steven Jackson for this weeks' games. Or at least Holt - Jackson still might be a viable option.
1. Miami (0-11): Not sure if this says more about the hard luck Miami has endured this year, or just how bad the Jets are; Miami - winless Miami, mind you - is a one-point favorite over the Jets - the two-win Jets, mind you - this weekend. Wow.

And that leads nicely into an abridged version of this week's picks - limited commentary except where necessary. A solid 9-7 last week to push up to 86-82-11 for the '07 season, though I'm tempted to give myself a push on the Patriots/Eagles pick with the late injury information... nah.

By the way - I noticed that I screwed up, so for the past few weeks my picks have had the wrong title. Basically, I picked Week 9, then I picked Week 10 but called it Week 9 in the title, then just kept going one week behind. Whatever. It's fixed now. I'm sure nobody cares. Just putting it out there.

This weeks picks, home teams in CAPS, and lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 5:45pm Friday.

Falcons (+3.5) over RAMS: Harrington/Leftwich on the road, or Gus Frerotte at all. It's decisions like this that keep gamblers up at night, or that make us rethink our choices in life.
REDSKINS (-6) over Bills: Too much emotion.
VIKINGS (-4) over Lions: Lions on the road... not making that mistake again.
Texans (+4) over TITANS: Gut feeling.
Jaguars (+7) over COLTS: When was the last time these two played a game that wasn't close?
DOLPHINS (-1) over Jets: Finally.
Chargers (-6) over CHIEFS: Let's see Kolby Smith do that against San Diego...
Seahawks (+3) over EAGLES: Donovan's back. Fans boo him off the field by halftime.
49ers (+3) over PANTHERS: Flip a coin - it's a good a method as any with this one.
Browns (-1) over CARDINALS: Line makes zero sense to me.
Broncos (-3.5) over RAIDERS: Could turn into a shootout - at least one team has a legitimate quarterback.
Bucs (+3.5) over SAINTS: Hmmm... OK. Watch out for Galloway, Hilliard, Graham... pretty much any Tampa Bay offensive player.
BEARS (+2) over Giants: Too many injuries for NY, too much mini-momentum for Chicago.
STEELERS (-7) over Bengals: Could be an ice storm in Pittsburgh this weekend... let's see how the turf here looks after that.
Patriots @ Ravens: This line is at 21 points right now. In just about any other situation, I'd take the Pats and not even think twice. But after the 24-point spread (which actually climbed to 26 after McNabb was ruled out), and the subsequent 3-point game, I'm rethinking this. In fact, let's do this - take the Pats' money line and the Ravens (+21). It's feeling like a 14-17 point game.

By the way, scary non-parity NFL thought of the day: Not only have the Pats already become the only team to clinch their division, but with any combination of two more Patriots' wins and two losses by Indy and one loss by both the Steelers & Jaguars, they clinch the #1 overall seed in the AFC. So, theoretically, by next week. Yikes.

RECAP: Falcons / REDSKINS / VIKINGS / Texans / Jaguars / DOLPHINS / Chargers / Seahawks / 49ers / Browns / Broncos / Bucs / BEARS / STEELERS / Patriots

That's it. Back next week. Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 5:14 PM 0 comments

Week 10 Rants & Ranks

Well, that's certainly the last time I use photographic evidence to make a point on this page. Looks like, yet again, the oddsmakers have proven me wrong. I've said it before - that's why they keep building casinos in the desert.

Also, I completely neglected to address a comment from my Week 9 Picks post, regarding that little... "incident" with the Patriots and the camera back in September. The comment asked for my take on this post on a Steelers' football blog.

My take? I agree 100%. In fact, I said the same thing in the comments section of Shanoff's page sometime around week 3. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Bill Belichick intentionally got himself in trouble to give his players an axe to grind all season long. This is a team that historically needs a reason to feel disrespected.

In 2001, it was easy. In 2002, they were complacent and missed the playoffs, giving them all the fuel they needed in '03. And in '04, they galvanized around the mantra of "We're all just a bunch of 4th and 5th round guys", in reference to their Super Bowl opponent Philadelphia Eagles, and their defensive backfield of four #1 picks.

This year, they were annointed champions before the opening coin flip in the preseason. Not a single person was saying a negative word about them. So they needed something. And if it took making his players listen to a full season of "you only win because you cheat", followed immediately by "stop bludgeoning us to death when we're down by 40 points", then so be it.

If it helps his team win, Belichick will do it. Pats fans all knew it for awhile; now the rest of the world does.

OK, enough of that. Onto the Rants & Ranks following Week 10's action.



1. New England (9-0): I will admit, I'm lifting this 100% from Peter King's Monday Morning QB section printed yesterday, because it is an accurate representation of how most Boston fans feel right now: "Bye Week Thought of the Week: Since Oct. 18, the Hub's baseball, basketball and football teams (Sox, Celts, Pats) are 15-0." The part that Peter left out, and that makes me smile just as much, is that the only "big" teams to lose a game in that time span? The Bruins and BC football.
2. Pittsburgh (7-2): What a ridiculous comeback on Sunday by the Steelers. If they faced Indy today on a neutral field, I don't see any chance that the Colts would come out ahead.
3. Dallas (8-1): Ditto for the Cowboys. The Colts couldn't keep up with them on defense, and Indy's offense couldn't produce enough to keep the score close.
4. Indianapolis (7-2): Tough back to back weeks for Peyton Manning. His team can't keep the lead he helped build against New England, then he has to travel to face the Chargers after they were embarrassed by an inferior NFC team. Think about this - Manning threw six picks with basically no help on offense, and the Colts still only lost by 2 points on a shanked field goal late.
5. Green Bay (8-1): When you shut down the best rushing team in the league, and your rushing defense is supposed to be one of the worst around... maybe it really is your year.

Others Receiving Votes: Giants (a loss hurts, but at least it was to the best team in the NFC), Lions (That's not the way to prove you're for real Detroit...), Jacksonville (so, can they just plug in any quarterback and continue to win games?)



The Foul 5
5. Oakland (2-7): When, exactly, do we get to see this kid JaMarcus play a little? When would be the "opportune moment"?
4. St. Louis (1-8): If that offensive line can stay healthy and actually play a few games together the rest of the way, at 1-8 they are - somehow - not mathematically eliminated from winning the NFC West. And that makes me quite nauseous.
3. NY Jets (1-8): The bye week couldn't possibly have done anything to make them any worse. Maybe they can put together a solid string to close out the season.
2. San Francisco (2-7): Boy, it's a real shame they don't have a #1 pick this year to trade away for enough help to get them back into contention in '08...
1. Miami (0-9): Caller on WEEI's Whiner Line yesterday made a valid point - when they Dolphins finish this season 0-16, who pops the corks on the champagne bottles then?

Others receiving votes: Minnesota (No Peterson, no chance), Baltimore (Time to hang 'em up Steve McNair), Kansas City (remember when the Chiefs actually had a running game?)

That's it for now. back on Friday with the picks, but considering how terrible my weekend was (not just in football, but overall), who know how good this week will turn out.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 9:17 AM 0 comments

Week 9 Rants & Ranks

Man, I've really got to get on the ball with this. Tuesday night, I set up the ol' laptop to write up the weekly Rants & Ranks. Unfortunately I also ended up getting stuck on the phone for an hour, and by the time I hung up, all I could think about was going to sleep. Scratch Tuesday.

Wednesday, I realized that there was nothing on TV (Wednesday nights really suck for TV until "LOST" comes back), so I sat down with my laptop and got ready to start writing. Then I checked e-mails. Then I checked fantasy football teams. Then my roommate came in to "hang out" for awhile. Then it was 10:30 at night, and I still had to shower & shave for work today (where I had to get here by 7am for a class). Scratch Wednesday.

That leaves today, and today only, before tomorrow's weekly picks post. Actually, this might work out better, since injury information is more readily available, and I don't get sucked into thinking about whether or not the Chiefs can survive if LJ is only out for one week.

That said, let's do this...

The Fave 5

1. New England (9-0): I'm not going to sit here and tell you that they decimated the Colts last week. In fact, for three and a half quarters I was preparing responses for the inevitable onslaught of e-mails and text messages if the Patriots didn't manage to make a comeback. But they played it safe, didn't panic, and ground out a victory in one of the most hostile environments on Earth (even before the Colts pipe in crowd noise). That's enough to say that unless they lost three of their final 7 games, I'm keeping them atop the list until the playoffs.

2. Indianapolis (7-1): They were the best team in football for 50 minutes last Sunday. Unfortunately, they needed to do it for all 60. The AFC Title game is going to be awfully fun to watch.

3. Dallas (7-1): Completely, undeniably, emphatically obliterated the Eagles in Philly last night. If they're not in the NFC Title game, and probably the Super Bowl, then something has gone terribly wrong.

4. Pittsburgh (6-2): On a neutral field, right now, the Steelers would most likely crush the Packers, and probably give both the Cowboys and the Colts a hell of a good game. Yes, they lost to Arizona and Denver - Arizona was a fluke loss to old coaches, and Denver was inexcuseable. I'd be surprised if they lost more than two games teh rest of the way.

5. Green Bay (7-1): The only team with a chance to slow down the Cowboys before January. And if you don't think that the Thanksgiving Day game against the Lions is going to be intense, you obviously haven't watched enough NFC North football in your life.

Others receiving votes: Lions (6 wins... they haven't had 6 wins in a full season since dinosaurs roamed the Earth), Titans (can't argue with 6-2, even if nobody knows how they're doing it), Cleveland (just imagine if the Lions & Browns make the playoffs in the same year... the rust belt will be in pandemonium!), Buffalo (4-4 without 2/3 of their season opening "stars" available... that's impressive)

The Foul 5

5. San Francisco (2-6): Just a terrible showing, in every aspect of the game. Atlanta quit on the season sometime in July - there's no reason the 49ers, playing at almost full strength, couldn't have won that game.

4. Cincinnati (2-6): Everyone who had the Bengals pegged for a 10-loss season, raise your hand. If' you're not living in Pittsburgh, Cleveland or Baltimore and your hand is raised, you're lying.

3. NY Jets (1-8): The Kellen Clemens Era kicked off with a solid performance. It was still a loss, but at least he gave it a good effort and put on a strong show. Again - let's see if he leads the Jets to a 4-4 finish to the year. They've already dropped one, and the game @ New England will probably set records for largest loss in NFL history. So 4-2 in the other six... could be tough.

2. Miami (0-8): They didn't lose... they didn't play, but they didn't lose.

1. St. Louis (0-8): Ditto.

Others receiving votes: Atlanta (only escaped the list because they beat another team on it.), Oakland (I can't imagine them beating any team not included in The Foul 5 the rest of the way), Denver (44 points? TO THE LIONS?!?), Philadelphia (Maybe Donoan McNabb is the problem...).

Back tomorrow (late afternoon / early evening) with the weekly picks.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 2:06 PM 0 comments

Week 8 Rants & Ranks

Listen guys, I could spend two hours and 10,000 words espousing the virtues of the 2007 Red Sox. I could go on and on about how the best team won, and how it's a dynasty, and blah blah blah. But I won't. I'll leave that to the rest of the Internet. Just know that A) I've had a smile on my face for three days straight, no matter what else arrises in my life, B) My buddy Tim now has a reason to go back to Vegas (not like he ever needs one), since he put $50 on the Sox at the Mirage Sportsbook (Ironically, the day of the Patriots' collapse in the AFC Title Game) to win it all back in January, and C) Although I neglected to put it in print back in March, I did post it at the beginning of the playoffs. As far as the Sox winning the series... Ahem - "Called It."

Let's move into the Rants & Ranks for Week 8.


1. New England (8-0): Sticking by what I wrote last week - the hype is completely out of control for this week's Pats/Colts matchup. Here's an astounding thought - if the Patriots can pull this win out and the Bills fall at home to the Bengals... The Pats will have a 6-game division lead with eight games to play. They could clinch in Week 11! How ridiculous is that?

2. Indianapolis (7-0): Listen - I have the utmost respect for these Colts. They are still the champions until someone knocks them out. But the only way they're winning this game is if A) The Patriots suffer a run of catastrophic injuries, B) The patriots get caught looking ahead to next week's bye, or C) The Patriots' plane crashes on the way into Indy. Which kind of falls under "A".

3. Dallas (6-1): Wow - that death-grip on the NFC East that they had a couple weeks ago suddenly isn't as strong. They're 1/2 game up on the idle Giants, and have to deal with an Eagles team coming off a very good road win.

4. Green Bay (6-1): I passed out Monday Night well before the 4th quarter even ended, let alone before that overtime win. So I wasn't nearly as shocked as I should have been when I found Greg Jennings floating around on waivers in one of my fantasy leagues. To whoever dropped him in the blogger's league... uh... thanks!

5. Detroit (5-2): Sure the Giants have a better record at 6-2, but they barely beat the 0-8 Dolphins last week. The Lions went into Soldier Field and decimated the Bears. That get's a big tip of the cap in my book.


Others receiving votes: Pittsburgh (The division will be locked up by week 10), NY Giants (6-2 is 6-2... even if it's an ugly #6), Jacksonville (big win with absolutely nothing from the offense).


5. Oakland (2-5): God I want to put the Bengals or Niners here, but I still can't bring myself to do it. The Raiders are worse, but not by much.

4. NY Jets (1-7): Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the Kellen Clemens era. Let's see if he can go 4-4 to finish the season - that oughtta solidify the starter's job for him in '08.

3. Atlanta (1-6): Byron Leftwich is walking without crutches, and could be back under center in two weeks. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

2. Miami (0-8): I'll give Miami credit - with the exception of the Patriots' juggernaut, they've kept just about every score close, or at least close enough to make gamblers some money. They still havne't won, but at least they're competetive.

1. St. Louis (0-8): SJax is back out, the offensive line couldn't stop a High School pass rush, and the defense has given up the second most amount of points in the league (just ahead of Miami). Is it fair to say that they're on the clock right now?


Others receiving votes: Bengals (Guh...), 49ers (Just awful all around right now), Vikings (how much do they offer for the Rams #1 overall pick to get a real QB? Their 1st, 3rd and 4th?)

That's it for now. Could be big news in the life of Big D coming up soon, but for now, I'm just planning to be back here Friday afternoon/night with the Week 9 picks.

Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 9:54 AM 2 comments

2007 NFL Season - Week 5 Recap

My mind is moderately fried right now, so let's get right into this:

Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 4:03 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Season - Week 4 Recap

This week's Rants & Ranks. I'm too tired of being at work at 6AM to think of any better introduction.


1) New England (4-0): Just so we're clear - until they lose, or at least beat a team by less than 20 points, they're not getting moved from the top of anyone's rankings, much less a die-hard Pats' fan like me. They've got the best offense. They've got the best defense. That leaves special teams, and let's face it - ST is more or less a crapshoot from week to week. The only thing that scares me is the eerie correlation to the beginning of the 2002 season... The Patriots started 3-0 and outscored their first three opponents 105-59 (including giving up 38 points Week three to the Jets), then promptly proceeded to lose four straight and miss the playoffs after finishing 9-7. Personally, I blame that season on a Super Bowl hangover and Tara Reid.
2) Dallas (4-0): Another week, another offensive clinic. Although they sliced up the Bears en route to this 4-0 start, Chicago doesn't exactly have the defensive cache they did last year. After this week @ Buffalo, the Cowboys have New England, Minnesota, then three straight division games (two on the road) after the bye. If they come out of that stretch 3-2, they're really good. 4-1... they're scary good.
3) Indianapolis (4-0): That's the surgical precision we've been waiting to see from Indy's offense. And they managed to do it against a supposedly good Broncos' team, which is all the more impressive. Not a bad way to reaffirm to the league that, until proven otherwise, you are in fact still the champions.
4) Green Bay (4-0): I think, at this point, I can admit I was pretty wrong about the entire NFC North. Nothing's set in stone yet, but since the Pack would have to finish the year 2-10 to prove me right, I don't feel too bad about admitting my mistake. Could we see GB/Dallas, Indy/NE in the Conference Title Games? It'd be fun to watch, I'll tell you that. Would be great to see GB/NE in the Super Bowl as well, if for no other reason than it would make for great TV 11 years after Brett Favre and the Packers embarrassed New England in the Superdome.
5) Tampa Bay (3-1): Only Jacksonville has allowed fewer points this season (44-34). The difference is, the Bucs have scored 81 to the Jags' 46. Oh, and Jacksonville's also already had their bye week. Among other teams through four games, Pittsburgh (47) and New England (48) are next closest in points allowed. I might have been wrong about the NFC South too. Pretty much, I was wrong about any division that has a Cardinal direction other than East in its name...

Others Receiving Votes: Pittsburgh (bad loss), Detroit (don't trust the defense), Seattle (playing possum)


5) San Diego (1-3): Oh boy are the Chargers in trouble. After the opening week win over the Bears (a game that was a lot closer than the final 14-3 score), they've been beaten down in three successive weeks by New England (understandable), Green Bay (surprising at the time) and now Kansas City (wholly inexcusable). Can't you just see Marty Schottenheimer, Wade Philips and Cam Cameron meeting up after the season, having a frosty beverage, and all just bursting into laughter? Well, maybe not Cam...
4) Chicago (1-3): I'm actually struggling to remember who Chicago beat this season. San Diego... hmm... nope. Dallas? Not even close. Detroit? Not after allowing 34 fourth quarter points... Oh yes, the juggernaut that is the Kansas City Chiefs. And even that one was close for awhile, only broken open by Devin Hester's insane abilities when fielding a kick of any kind.
3) New Orleans (0-3): They didn't win, they didn't lose, they don't move. Maybe the bye week gave them enough time to figure out what the hell was wrong in the first three weeks of the season, because nothing else seems to have woken them up yet.
2) Miami (0-4): They're not too far ahead of their competition for the last spot on this list. It seems like Trent Green was not the answer to solve all the QB woes (shocking though that may be...), and the defense seems to have calcified before our very eyes. Luckily, they've got a few winnable games coming up with Cleveland, Buffalo and the Giants in the next five weeks.
1) St Louis (0-4): I know I said that losing a starting running back wasn't such a big deal in the NFL anymore. I think I may have misspoken. Losing a starting running back when he posted the 5th-best all time yards from scrimmage the previous season is kind of a big deal. Not to mention, the Rams may have lost their starting QB, and their offensive line is in shambles (which may account for the other two losses). They don't have a winnable stretch until weeks 8-10, against Cleveland, The Bye Week, and New Orleans. They should be favored against The Bye Week, but at this point, who knows?

Others receiving votes: Cincinnati (full scale revolt in 3...2...1...), Minnesota (do they even have a quarterback?), Philadelphia (can they play Detroit every week?) NY Jets (Lost to Buffalo... 'nuff said)

See you Friday-ish for the picks.
Lata.

Labels: 2007, NFL, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 7:24 AM 0 comments