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2007 Rants & Ranks - Week 13(ish) & Picks (Part Two)

Well, awful glad I waited until after last night's Cowboys/Packers game before jumping on and trying to setup the weekly ranks. Makes things a little bit clearer for me.

Since I haven't done this in awhile, there's a chance I might be a little rusty with these rankings. Are the Patriots still good? Are the Dolphins still bad? OK, I guess everything is normal...


1. New England (11-0): Even though they got a bit of a scare last week against the Eagles, they're still the clear-cut, undisputed, don't even think about mentioning another team in the same sentence, Number 1 team in the NFL. By the way - had I known that Donovan McNabb would be sitting and AJ Feeley would play last week, there's no way I would have taken the Pats to cover 24 points. I firmly believe that Donovan McNabb is actually bad for the Eagles at this point.
2. Dallas (11-1): Can't argue with the numbers - althought their passing defense might be a little suspect (20th in the league), their rushing defense, and both rushing & passing offense are all no worse than 11th. If Brett Favre misses any chunk of time, Dallas' path to Super Bowl XLIII looks pretty clear.
3. Indianapolis (9-2): I still think they're the biggest threat to the Patriots' run at history. Yet another Pats/Colts AFC Championship Game could either be the worst thing for the NFL, or the best thing we've ever seen as fans. If Indy's healthy, I'm leaning towards the latter.
4. Green Bay (10-2): ...Pending the status of #4. For as good as Aaron Rodgers looked after Favre went down last night, let's not forget that he was playing the 20th ranked passing defense in the league. Not to mention, the Packers' defense looked overmatched most of the night - although a couple crucial calls going the other way could have made all the difference.
5. Pittsburgh (8-3): I was on vacation when it happened, so I didn't get to treat this with the proper reaction, but... uh... HOW THE HELL DID THEY LOSE TO THE JETS? Good God - that's 100% inexcuseable! Arizona - OK, they had the ex-coordinators factor. Denver - The Broncos always play well on Monday Night. But THE JETS? That loss did more to reassure me that the Patriots will have an undefeated regular season than any Patriots' win.

Others receiving votes: Cleveland (If Romeo Crennel isn't the coach of the year, then there is absolutely NO sense to the voting process - and that's coming from an unabashed Patriots' fan), Jacksonville (Gonna be a fun game to watch Sunday), Tampa Bay (Abaolutely stunning that they're the 3rd best team in the NFC right now)



5. Oakland (3-8): I'll keep saying it until it happens - at what point so they let JaMarcus Russell step on the field and get some game action? I know they're technically not eliminated - 3 games back in the division with 5 to play - but is there really any chance they leapfrog three other teams?
4. NY Jets (2-9): Of any team in this half of the list, they've got the single best "quality" win. See #5 in "The Fave 5" for more information...
3. San Francisco (3-8): So, if the Jets and Rams manage to sneak out a couple more wins, and the Niners finish at 3-13, do the Patriots take Darren McFadden with the #2 overall pick in neat year's draft? Imagine that backfield for a second or three...
2. St. Louis (2-9): Just when they started to look competant on offense over the past few weeks, Marc Bulger gets hurt. Figures. Guess I'll be sitting Torry Holt & Steven Jackson for this weeks' games. Or at least Holt - Jackson still might be a viable option.
1. Miami (0-11): Not sure if this says more about the hard luck Miami has endured this year, or just how bad the Jets are; Miami - winless Miami, mind you - is a one-point favorite over the Jets - the two-win Jets, mind you - this weekend. Wow.

And that leads nicely into an abridged version of this week's picks - limited commentary except where necessary. A solid 9-7 last week to push up to 86-82-11 for the '07 season, though I'm tempted to give myself a push on the Patriots/Eagles pick with the late injury information... nah.

By the way - I noticed that I screwed up, so for the past few weeks my picks have had the wrong title. Basically, I picked Week 9, then I picked Week 10 but called it Week 9 in the title, then just kept going one week behind. Whatever. It's fixed now. I'm sure nobody cares. Just putting it out there.

This weeks picks, home teams in CAPS, and lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 5:45pm Friday.

Falcons (+3.5) over RAMS: Harrington/Leftwich on the road, or Gus Frerotte at all. It's decisions like this that keep gamblers up at night, or that make us rethink our choices in life.
REDSKINS (-6) over Bills: Too much emotion.
VIKINGS (-4) over Lions: Lions on the road... not making that mistake again.
Texans (+4) over TITANS: Gut feeling.
Jaguars (+7) over COLTS: When was the last time these two played a game that wasn't close?
DOLPHINS (-1) over Jets: Finally.
Chargers (-6) over CHIEFS: Let's see Kolby Smith do that against San Diego...
Seahawks (+3) over EAGLES: Donovan's back. Fans boo him off the field by halftime.
49ers (+3) over PANTHERS: Flip a coin - it's a good a method as any with this one.
Browns (-1) over CARDINALS: Line makes zero sense to me.
Broncos (-3.5) over RAIDERS: Could turn into a shootout - at least one team has a legitimate quarterback.
Bucs (+3.5) over SAINTS: Hmmm... OK. Watch out for Galloway, Hilliard, Graham... pretty much any Tampa Bay offensive player.
BEARS (+2) over Giants: Too many injuries for NY, too much mini-momentum for Chicago.
STEELERS (-7) over Bengals: Could be an ice storm in Pittsburgh this weekend... let's see how the turf here looks after that.
Patriots @ Ravens: This line is at 21 points right now. In just about any other situation, I'd take the Pats and not even think twice. But after the 24-point spread (which actually climbed to 26 after McNabb was ruled out), and the subsequent 3-point game, I'm rethinking this. In fact, let's do this - take the Pats' money line and the Ravens (+21). It's feeling like a 14-17 point game.

By the way, scary non-parity NFL thought of the day: Not only have the Pats already become the only team to clinch their division, but with any combination of two more Patriots' wins and two losses by Indy and one loss by both the Steelers & Jaguars, they clinch the #1 overall seed in the AFC. So, theoretically, by next week. Yikes.

RECAP: Falcons / REDSKINS / VIKINGS / Texans / Jaguars / DOLPHINS / Chargers / Seahawks / 49ers / Browns / Broncos / Bucs / BEARS / STEELERS / Patriots

That's it. Back next week. Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 5:14 PM