The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

2007 NFL Picks - Week Nine

We've officially reached the halfway point of the NFL Season (yes, I realize technically last week was the halfway point, being Week 9 of a 17 week season... let me finish making my point before you jump all over me). Every NFL Team has played at least eight games, or half of their schedule, and four teams have played nine.

Seems like a logical time for some snap judgements about the first half of the year, as well as some completely unreliable predictions about the final eight weeks of the season.

Looking Back...

... If not for the final nine minutes last week, people all over the country would be talking about the Indianapolis Colts as a possible dynasty in the making. As it is, they're already putting out lines on the AFC Title Game Rematch (it's PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Colts if you're interested)...

... And the other five divisions are led by teams that are 9-0, 7-1, 7-1, 7-1, and 6-2...

Looking Ahead...

... On that same note, count me among the group that would love to see Brett Favre reach a Super Bowl this season, if only because he will most likely face New England and see what it feels like to be completely blown away by a far superior team on the biggest stage in sports.

... Even in the Reggie Bush/Vince Young/Matt Leinart draft class, teams didn't look like as much of a lock for the Number one and two picks as Miami & St. Louis (a combined 0-16) do right now.

OK, onto this week's picks. I’m riding something of a mini-wave the past two weeks, following up Week 8’s 9-4 showing with a solid 9-5 in Week 9. Though, to be fair, I could give myself for correctly predicting a 4-point Patriots’ win even though I chose to take them to cover a 6-point line. But I won’t.

And how about this – the 9-5 record last week beings me back up to just barely under .500 on the season at 59-61-9. Ignore the fact that I forgot to pick the Steelers/Ravens game on the blog – I’ve given myself credit for the win, since I had money on Pittsburgh (-10). Good enough for me.

Going into these picks, I actually checked lines multiple times during the week instead of once on Wednesday and again when I wrote the post. There’s a logical explanation for it – with the Patriots not playing, I’ve got no virtually guaranteed covers, so I thought I’d actually do my homework for once.

So, here goes. As always, home teams in CAPS, and all lines are from Bodog.com and accurate as of 9pm tonight.

(Click on photo for bigger size)

For only the third time in the history of this blog, I’m providing visual evidence to back up a point. Or, in this case, three points. Click that photo above and note the three lines that I circled on Monday night, just after they were released. Go ahead, I can wait…

Now, compare those to the current lines as of Friday night. Sometimes I wish I made bets early and often to take advantage of the oddsmakers’ mistakes.

Cowboys (-2.5) over GIANTS: The first time these teams met, the Cowboys blew New York completely off the field. Rumors started swirling about Tom Coughlin’s job security on the Giants’ sideline. Since then, New York has gone 6-1, completely decimating opponents with, of all things, a swarming defense. But not this week. Dallas is too strong, and has too many offensive weapons.

Lions (Pk) Over CARDINALS: I’ll be honest, I have absolutely no idea why the Lions aren’t favored by at least 1.5 here. I understand they have the worst defense in the league, and that it will catch up to them eventually. But it’s the Cardinals for Christ’s sake! It’s not like the Lions are traveling to the RCA Dome or the Razor – they’re heading for the desert, to play a 3-5 team!

Colts (-4) over CHARGERS: Wait a second… you’re telling me that I can take the Colts and Joseph Addai over a banged up Chargers team that just allowed almost 300 yards rushing to a rookie, and I only have to give up 4 points? Hmm… lemme think this one over for a second…

Now, before I continue… do any of those lines make sense to you? Does Vegas know something the rest of us don’t? You’ve got the best team in the NFC giving less than a field goal, a 6-2 team as a pick-‘em against a 3-5 team, and the second best team in the NFL (who easily could still be in the argument as the best team) playing against a team that has struggled just to stay at .500. I mean… wow.

As for the rest of the games…

TITANS (-4) over Jaguars: I’ve seen Quinn Gray look halfway decent as a starting QB, and I’ve seen Quinn Gray look like Quinn Gray as a starting QB. Let’s see which one shows up this week, or if the Jags’ simply put David Garrard out there on one and a half legs and hope for the best.

CHIEFS (-3) over Broncos: Can’t judge the Chiefs on last week’s home loss to the Packers. Green Bay is a team of destiny this season. Denver, however, is not. Chiefs win big, and Priest Holmes gives everyone another feel good story for this season.

Bills (-3) over DOLPHINS: At some point this season, Miami has to back into a win, don’t they? Hmmm… do the Dolphins play the Rams in ’07? That’d probably be their best chance.

Browns (+10) over STEELERS: Cleveland’s playing with a lot of confidence right now, and if Romeo Crennel is even half as smart of a coach as I suspect he is, he’s been studying the Steelers/Cardinals game tapes about 19 hours a day this week.

SAINTS (-11.5) over Rams: I can’t believe I’m actually not too worried about laying eleven and a half points to a team like St. Louis. Man they’ve fallen a long way. Even more shocking, I’m voluntarily sitting Torry Holt this week in favor of Anquan Boldin, Donald Driver & Greg Jennings. Perhaps there is a reason I haven’t won a fantasy football league in three seasons.

Falcons (+4) over PANTHERS: At least the Falcons know who their QB is going to be this week. He might not be a world beater, but at least the team has enough faith to hand him the keys to the car.

REDSKINS (-3) over Eagles: The Redskins are one of only two teams with a winning record that have given up more points then they’ve scored (Cleveland’s the other). That’s not going to translate to playoff success, and in that division it might not even translate to the playoffs at all. The Eagles need to get their first division win if they want any type of hope of backing into the second wild card spot. Don’t see it happening this week.

PACKERS (-6) over Vikings: When all you have is one offensive weapon, you’re not supposed to dominate games like the Vikings did last week. I’m still not sure if that speaks more to how great Adrian Peterson is going to be or how terrible the Chargers’ defense currently is, but I do know that the Packers will put ten in the box if they have to and force Minnesota to beat them through the air.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Bengals: Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year square off in what could end up as the ugliest AFC game of the season. Anybody want to make a pick on the over/under for combined turnovers in this game? I’ll set it at 6.5… and almost immediately take the over.

Bears (-3.5) over RAIDERS: Look on the bright side Raiders fans – another season like last year means another chance to complete botch the draft next year…

SEAHAWKS (-10) over 49ers: I listen to all the vitriol and hatred for the Patriots, a team that just three years ago was garnering universal praise for being the new “America’s Team”, for doing it the right way, for embodying team play… then I remember that New England holds the 49ers first round pick this year (currently #8 overall, but almost certain to be a top-5), and I smile.

RECAP: Cowboys / Lions / Colts / TITANS / CHIEFS / Bills / Browns / SAINTS / Falcons / REDSKINS / PACKERS / RAVENS / Bears / SEAHAWKS

Just looking for 8-6 or better this week. No need to be greedy. I‘ll take a .500 record after 10 weeks in today’s NFL.

Hell, it works for 1/3 of the teams themselves. It’s good enough for me.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 8:36 PM