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2007 NFL Picks - Week Seven

Well, at least Week 6 was better than Week 5. Of course, that’s kind of like saying that Pol Pot was a better person than Hitler.

Yes, I just referenced two genocidal maniacs in a post about NFL gambling. Judging by the recent readership numbers, I doubt I’ll be pissing off too many people.

I managed to pull out a 4-7-2 week of picks last week, following up my stellar 2-11-1 in Week Five. I’m in rough shape with the overall record (35-46-8), but still managed to pull out some nice, safe teasers last week to limit the damage.

I think I’ll stick to the “safe” bets from now on. They tend to give me fewer heart palpitations.

Here we go for Week Seven. Home teams in CAPS, and lines from bodog.com and accurate as of 5:30pm Friday.

REDSKINS (-8.5) over Cardinals: Tim Rattay, on the road, against a swarming defense. And yet, I have no confidence in the Redskins to cover this line. We’ll start off and call this a nice safe teaser – Redskins down to (-2.5)

SAINTS (-8) over Falcons: Boy did the Saints look good against the Seahawks last week or what? They had a dominating offense and held Seattle in check on the defensive side of the ball. If I had my choice, I’d tease them to (-2) and head to the bank.

BILLS (+3) over Ravens: I hate starting off with three straight home teams (don’t worry – it won’t be four), but I’ve got a feeling that two strong defenses should keep the scoring down in this one. I can see a 10-9 final score possible. Of course, I can see a 42-41 score as well. It’s the NFL – who the hell knows?

Patriots (-17) over DOLPHINS: I can’t remember a time that I’ve ever felt confident about giving 17+ points. As bad as Miami has looked this season, I’d feel a lot better about teasing this one – either way – for six points. This could get ugly, one way or the other.

GIANTS (-9) over 49ers: Two straight patsies for the Giants should help to solidify Tom Coughlin’s job security. At least for now. And a nice blowout home win could do wonders to push the teams’ confidence over the top and give them the push they need for the playoffs.

Bucs (+2.5) over LIONS: I have absolutely no faith in the Lions’ defense right now. More importantly, I believe this Bucs team might be the NFC Dark Horse to push the Cowboys and Packers for the right to lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They’ve got a stable QB, a solid defense, and might finally have some semblance of a running game.

Titans @ Texans: No site is offering a line for this game right now, pending the outcome of Vince Young’s injury. If he’s playing, don’t think there’s anyway the Titans lose – he’s got too much incentive to play well in Houston. If it’s Kerry Collins, I can’t imagine a situation where the Texans lose the game. In other words – screw the line here, bet the money line.

Chiefs (+3) over RAIDERS: Anybody else notice how JaMarcus Russell seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth? Is he still holding out? The Raiders did sign him, right? Yet nobody is clamoring for him to get into the lineup. Interesting…

Jets (+6.5) over BENGALS: In what should be an offensive shootout, I’m taking the points. Even if the team I’m supporting is sending out a QB with a weaker arm than mine. Maybe they’ll just run the ball a lot – either way, Cincy’s defense can’t stop anybody.

COWBOYS (-10) over Vikings: Look out for Tony Romo – not only did he get embarrassed the past two weeks, but the Vikings have the second worst pass defense in the NFL and just allowed 381 yards and 3 TDs to Brian Griese and the Bears. The Cowboys will have to use the pass to setup the run – the Vikes don’t let anyone run the ball.

EAGLES (-6) over Bears: Must-win game for both teams. The Eagles are getting back some key parts of their secondary this week, meaning it could be another long week for the Bears’ offense.

SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Rams: If the Seahawks can’t cover this line, I don’t see any situation under which I back them again this season. They’d have to be 20-point dogs to San Fran or St. Louis for me to even consider it. Yes, I’m still bitter that Seattle not only didn’t cover the (-6) at New Orleans last week, but didn’t even win outright; thereby blowing up a perfect teaser.

Steelers (-4) over BRONCOS: When was the last time the Broncos were a home underdog, and there wasn’t a single peep out of the Denver area to complain about it? Man the Rockies really have taken over that city. Oh by the way – Denver is without Javon Walker and probably Champ Bailey – in other words, hit the Steelers hard until that line jumps.

Colts (-3.5) over JAGUARS: The only reason I’m taking Indy here is that they are moderately healthy after coming off a bye week. Jacksonville has taken pride the past few seasons in hosting prime-time games against big time opponents and absolutely shutting them down. This could be one hell of a great game to watch, no matter who you’re rooting for (or betting on, as it were).

RECAP: REDSKINS / SAINTS / BILLS / Patriots / GIANTS / Bucs / Titans / Chiefs / Jets / COWBOYS / EAGLES / SEAHAWKS / Steelers / Colts

And, if anybody is interested, the safe teasers are as follows:

REDSKINS down to (-2.5)

Steelers down to (+2)

COWBOYS down to (-4)

Patriots down to (-11) or DOLPHINS up to (+23)

GIANTS down to (-3)

OK, I’m tired. Have a nice weekend, and let’s see if we can have at least a .500 week. I’m not greedy – that’s all I ask for.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 5:50 PM