Week 2 Recap
Let me begin this edition of the quick thoughts by linking to a comment I made over on Sparty & Friends immediately following the end of the Chargers/Broncos game. I’m still too pissed off to retype the whole thing, but you’ll get the idea.
God I can’t believe how badly the refs blew the end of that game. Not to mention the blown fumble call earlier in the game, when the replay machine conveniently wasn’t working to overturn the call. I can’t even begin to describe how much I hate the Chargers (actually, I’ve done that before), but I have always hated the Broncos more. This just adds to it.
Other thoughts:
n Wow Seattle is bad. The Cardinals are the team to beat in that division. And they haven’t even played the Rams yet – there’s two more wins guaranteed.
n There’s a chance, albeit slight, that the Titans are the best team in the AFC South. With Kerry Collins as their quarterback. It actually seems weirder to see those words in print than it did to type them.
n Tarvaris Jackson. JaMarcus Russel. Kyle Orton. Chad Pennington. Jason Campbell. David Garrard. Tyler Thigpen (who the hell is Tyler Thigpen?!?). Brian Griese. Matt Ryan. JT O’Sullivan. Just thought I’d list all the NFL quarterbacks that took at least half of their teams’ snaps in Week 2, and that I currently trust less to lead an offense than Matt Cassel. Yes, I know four of them won their games this week. Doesn’t mean I trust them.
n The Jacksonville bandwagon might have gotten a little overfilled and slowed itself to a halt this week. But next week, when two-thirds of them jump off and hop on the Buffalo train, the Jags should start right back up.
n Actually, scratch that. Buffalo is starting the season at least 4-0, maybe 5-0 before they hit the bye week. They’ve got Oakland, St. Louis and Arizona coming up. Yikes. Jacksonville gets to follow up their horrible start with Indy, Pittsburgh & Denver (plus a bye week). Good God.
n Is it possible that Eli is the better Manning at QB right now? I’m just sayin… The Giants have had two pretty solid wins, while the Colts have a loss to the Bears (not looking too terrible) and a bad come-from-behind win against a very bad Minnesota team.
n The Packers are really, really good. Aaron Rodgers stepped in and hasn’t missed a beat. If they don’t win 12-13, I’ll be very surprised.
n Looks like the Pats aren’t going to face a real challenge until Week Six at San Diego. Of course, that begins an eight week stretch of games versus SD, Denver, Indy, Buffalo, the Jets and Pittsburgh. At least the October 26th game against the Rams provides a virtual bye week. The game in Miami on 11/23 ain’t too bad either.
Alright, I’m out of steam here. And still pissed at Ed Hoculi. I’m going to bed.
Lata.
Labels: 2008, Gambling, NFL, quick thoughts, Recap, Week 2
Week 1 Recap - So... about that Week One?
Not good times here in New England. The Patriots season appears to be over after eight minutes of Game One. At least the Red Sox are making a push to take back the AL East.
Here’s a handful of quick thoughts about the opening week of the NFL Season:
n Did I really say the Raiders’ offense wasn’t going to be as inept as in 2007? Really? That seemed like a good idea to put it in writing for all time? Hmmm… I should probably lay off the AM beers on post days.
n The Steelers look good. Like… really, really good. Like, might be the AFC favorites with a certain New England QB shelved for the next 12-18 months. Crap. Although, it was only the Texans that they beat up on.
n I’m astonished at just how bad the Rams are. On both sides of the ball. Donovan McNabb carved up their defense with his top two receivers out for the game. I’m starting to think the 2-4 record I predicted for St. Louis might have been generous.
n Might have been a bit premature to crown Jacksonville the best team in the AFC South. Although, at least they lost to a playoff team - Indy got their lunch handed to them by the Bears. That’s just inexcusable.
n Stupid Saints (-4.5) line costing me a 12-win week to open the season… damnit-all. The worst part - I set the line myself since it wasn't posted anywhere as of post time, and I still got it wrong! I suppose 11-5 isn’t all that bad. Of course, I don’t bet on weeks 1 and 17, so this was just a big waste for me. Hope you got something out of it.
n For the record, this year’s “Money Line system” went 10-6 in Week 1. Though I don’t think anyone would have chosen the Browns, Niners or Dolphins to win outright. Personally, I was 13-3 with no spread this week. I like those kinds of numbers.
n I’m not saying anything else about the Brady injury until the weekly picks on Friday after I say this – the instant it happened, I turned to my buddy Jay who I was watching the game with and said: “There goes the season. That’s at least an ACL, and maybe an MCL too.” As someone who’s had his share of knee injuries, seeing the type of hit and the way Brady’s leg bent inwards and then exploded out, there was never a doubt in my mind. Here’s hoping for a full recovery by training camp ’09 (though ACL’s usually take at least 18 months to get back the full strength – just ask Daunte Culpepper).
n Actually, 1 last thing. Damn my stupidity for not immediately jumping on Bodog to get a bet in on the Patriots’ “under” for season wins – it was still at ±12.5. I’m an idiot (like you didn’t already know that).
That’s it. Picks on www.spartyandfriends.com Friday afternoon.
Lata.
Labels: 2008, Gambling, NFL, quick thoughts, Recap, Week 1
2008 NFL Preview - Post 4
Today, it’s the final installment in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. Another beautiful day here in Southern New England – started with 18 holes and a good solid lunch, and now the final NFL Preview Post before tomorrow’s post with SpartyAndFriends.
So let’s finish it up – today, the AFC South & East
AFC SOUTH
2007 Standings
Indianapolis (13-3)
Jacksonville (11-5)
Tennessee (10-6)
Houston (8-8)
Much like the Eagles in 2007, the Houston Texans were a victim of circumstance last year. They played well enough to win half of their games, but got stuck in a division with three playoff teams. Division play accounted for five of their eight losses, with the other three coming to the Chargers – runners up in the AFC title game – the Browns, who just missed the playoffs, and the Falcons; really no excuse for the loss to the Falcons. But of their eight wins, only two came against teams above .500 – Week 14 at home against Tampa Bay, and Week 17 blowout at home against a Jacksonville team resting their starters. So are they a good team in an unlucky divisional situation? Or are they really a middle of the road, 8-8 type team that might get a few breaks and knock off the actual contenders here and there? A full, healthy season out of Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Ahman Green (or Steve Slaton… actually, Slaton’s probably the better option at this point) will give us the answer. They open the year with four of five games against last year’s playoff teams – three on the road. That’s the type of run that wears a team down and exposes major flaws. After that, they have a fairly soft schedule, and might be able to string together a couple wins. Prediction: 7-9
I honestly believe the Tennessee Titans were a fluke last season. They snuck in a win in Week 1 against the Jaguars, then didn’t beat an above .500 team until Week 17 when they still needed to win for a playoff berth, but the Colts were already guaranteed the #2 seed. Vince Young had two different games last year in which he threw for under 80 yards (both wins, somehow) and 10 games under 200 yards passing. LenDale White hasn’t exactly asserted himself as anything more than a bruising goal line or short yardage back, the kind of guy who pushes the middle of the pile three or four yards at a time. The defense is still dominant, allowing under 300 points last season (297, four points less than they scored), but among the eight playoff teams only one other AFC team allowed more – Jacksonville at 304 – and all three entrants from the NFC East. This year’s schedule is very, very kind to them with only two road games against 2007 playoff teams – both NFC South rivals – and only two playoff team from out of their division; Green Bay and Pittsburgh come to town in Weeks 9 and 16 respectively. Fluke or not, they can probably put together another 10 win season and maybe sneak into the playoffs again. Prediction: 10-6
Jacksonville struck me as a bit of a streaky team last season. They had three separate three-game winning streaks during the year, punctuated with a 49-11 pasting of the Raiders in Week 16. David Garrard looks like the real deal as an NFL Quarterback he’s they type of player that will keep you in games, minimize mistakes and do damage control when necessary, and he might even make a big play or three every week to seal a victory. This year, by the grace of the scheduling gods they get four virtual freebies with the AFC & NFC North divisions – though all four (Chicago, Cincy, Detroit & Baltimore) are road games. They get the four tough teams from those divisions right at home in Northern Florida, a situation that can only help their numbers. Outside of those eight and their six division games, they get Denver & Buffalo – both should be wins. This could be a big year in Jacksonville. Wonder what that’ll be like… Prediction: 13-3
Indianapolis lucked out early this year. Not only do they get to christen a brand new stadium, but their first two games (when Peyton Manning may or may not be able to play) are against teams that they should be able to handle with Jim Sorgi under center; Chicago & Minnesota. Another beneficiary of this year’s North/South divisional battles, they unfortunately have to travel to all four of the other division’s contenders while getting the four relative cupcakes in Indy. Throw in the yearly rivalry game with New England (at home) and the new budding rivalry game with San Diego (in SoCal) and the Colts have a pretty rough schedule overall. If Manning and/or Marvin Harrison aren’t completely recovered from knee problems, this could be a long year for the Colts. But I’m betting they’ll both be at least at their averages, which is pretty damned good compared to everyone else. Prediction: 12-4 (That’s right – this is the year Indy doesn’t control the AFC South)
AFC EAST
2007 Standings
New England (16-0)
Buffalo (7-9)
New York Jets (4-12)
Miami (1-15)
Miami could be a shock this year. Let’s face it – they’re not going to get worse. But they imported Chad Pennington to be a competent, if not stunning quarterback and run a system. They have a rejuvenated Ricky Williams to pair with Ronnie Brown in the backfield once Brown is healthy. They overhauled the defense and got younger all over the place, which may or may not be a good thing. And they revamped the coaching staff and administration, bringing the Big Tuna down to Marlin country. They’re not going to win 10 games and sneak into the playoffs – let’s be serious. But they could easily sneak out five or six games and regain a modicum of respectability. Prediction: 5-11
For all the noise Buffalo seems to make either in the draft or free agency every year, they haven’t really contended in over half a decade. In this year’s draft they again took a cornerback off the board about ten spots too high in the first round rather than trading down and getting the same player plus some picks, and got a wide receiver in the second who’s profile says he “doesn’t make crisp cuts… needs to work on route running… going to have a tough time separating from man coverage…” Wow – what a draft day steal! Did I mention their big free agent acquisition this year was Kawika Mitchell from the Giants? Or that they lost both a starting wide receiver and cornerback to division rival New England? Or that their schedule has them playing New England twice after the bye week, plus San Diego, Jacksonville and Cleveland, and those are just the games they should lose? Prediction: 6-10
Now, to the Brett Favre portion of this NFL Preview… Listen, the Jets made a move that was necessary. They settled their quarterback controversy for at least this season and possibly one or two more in the future. They brought in an all-time great quarterback and handed him the keys to the city (though, not literally; not yet at least). But last time I checked, Brett can’t play defense and help slow up the 200 passing and 135 rushing yards the Jets allowed per game. He can’t play runningback to boost the 100 rushing yards per game, though he might have to use his legs and scramble a little behind that line. He can only help solve some of the offensive problems the Jets suffered through in ’07 (268 points scored is embarrassing, even if it was second in the division). I’ll admit – as soon as I head the news on the trade I tried to drop some money on the Jets’ Over/Under for wins this year which was still at 4.5 (it moved to 7.5 before I could get it done which is right in the middle of where I think they’ll be… damnit). This team was a playoff team in 2006, but that 10-6 season kind of came out of left field after three straight years of four, four and six wins. They’ll be better. But don’t expect any “Broadway” repeats this year. Prediction: 7-9 (and I’m being generous because of their out-of-division schedule… they could win four or they could win ten. I’m shooting for the middle)
Finally, my beloved New England Patriots. I mistakenly thought early season injuries and suspensions would cost them a chance at a perfect season in 2007; little did I know it would be a miraculous catch (and three uncalled holding penalties on the play) coupled with one of the worst attempts at pass coverage I have ever seen at the end of the year that cost them history. I’d love to play the “This year, they’re reinvigorated” card here, make something up about them being pissed to the point of being maniacal, stopping at nothing to reach perfection. But I don’t see it happening. Don’t get me wrong – they’re still the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl, and rightfully so. But 19-0? Don’t see it. They’ll lose one somewhere, maybe a flukey game like Week 13 last year in Baltimore; every bounce, every call, everything will fall the wrong way. Maybe it will be against a terrible opponent like the Ravens (or this year, the Broncos or Rams. That’s my guess). Maybe it’ll be to a comparable team like the Colts or Steelers where everyone just watches it and says “nope, not winning this one”. Might even happen twice. But I think it’ll come somewhere. And they’ll be better for it. Prediction: 14-2
So that’s it for this year’s NFL preview. As always, I’m ecstatic if I get 50% of the teams within one game – either way – of their actual final records, though last year I only got 12 of 32 within that one game. And we won’t discuss what I wrote about the Giants or the Jaguars, among others, in 2007. So here’s hoping to less mistakes than last year. How’s that for a rallying cry?
See you on Friday afternoon over at SpartyAndFriends, and every week during the season you can find the weekly picks over there with a recap post here on Mondays or Tuesdays.
Lata.
Labels: 2008, AFC, East, NFL, Preview, South
2008 NFL Preview - Post 3
Today, its part three in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. My apologies for the lack of a post yesterday – a headache kept me in bed until the mid afternoon and by then, I wasn’t in much of a mood to post.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s continue – today, the AFC North & West
AFC NORTH
2007 Standings
Pittsburgh (10-6)
Cleveland (10-6)
Cincinnati (7-9)
Baltimore (5-11)
Cleveland pulled out nothing short of a miracle last season, and they were rewarded with exactly the same thing they’ve gotten every year since they came back into the league – an early tee time, and a nice front row seat to watch the other twelve teams in the playoffs. I don’t know how much stock I put in Derek Anderson repeating last season’s performance, or Braylon Edwards & Kellen Winslow playing a full 16. The Browns still strike me as a team on the rise, but this season feels like it might be a small step back before they can make the next push forward. Prediction: 8-8
Baltimore made three solid picks through the draft in Joe Flacco, Ray Rice & Tom Zbikowski from Notre Dame (yes, I had to look that one up. Twice. And now my spell-checker hates me), and they not only managed to lose very little in free agency, but they held onto their biggest chip in Terrell Suggs. Unfortunately, Willis McGahee still has a lingering injury, and although Joe Flacco has a cannon for an arm, it doesn’t look like the Ravens have any intention of letting him under center this year unless they have to. With a weaker, aging defense and an inexperienced offense, they probably have another year or two before they can get the players and the favorable schedule to expect to be serious contenders in the AFC again. Prediction: 4-12
Pittsburgh has got an absolutely brutal schedule – seven playoff teams, plus two against the Browns who just missed the postseason in 2007. Ben Roethlisberger had a fantastic year last season, but the Steelers fell apart when it came to playing anyone wearing a Jacksonville uniform. They added another solid runningback in Rashard Mendenhall, but lost a handful of good players through free agency – most notably Clark Haggans and Alan Faneca. Just looking at the games they have throughout the season, I can see seven different games where they will probably be the underdog. That’s not good. I’ll give them credit for squeaking out at least one of those. Prediction: 10-6
And then there’s Cincinnati. For a very long time, the Arizona Cardinals were, single-handedly, the worst run franchise in the NFL. In the past five or six years, the Detroit Lions have come rushing up from the middle of the pack to lay a solid grip on the title. But the Bengals are making an awful strong push to contend for the crown. They can’t keep team morale out of the toilet. They can’t put a quality team on the field, since half the team out of prison long enough to learn the playbook. And just when they were turning a corner, tossing out problem children like Odell Thurman and Chris Henry, they went right back to their old demons and resigned Henry this week so they could field a legitimate starting wide receiving corps. This team is going nowhere, and they’re getting there as fast as they can. There’s a legitimate chance that with their schedule they could go 0-16. Prediction: 2-14 (They gotta sneak one or two out somehow…)
AFC WEST
2007 Standings
San Diego (11-5)
Denver (7-9)
Oakland (4-12)
Kansas City (4-12)
I wrote this in a post during last year’s Championship Round – San Diego and their fans have never won a thing. Yet everyone wearing a San Diego Chargers jersey – players, fans, staff, cabbies in the street – all act like the Chargers are the rightful heirs to the next great NFL dynasty. I’ve seen nothing to make me think they’ve got anything more than another division title and another playoff flameout in them this year. Philip Rivers and LdT are both coming off of knee injuries, and Antonio Gates hasn’t set foot on a practice field this year with problems with his foot. Their defense is still strong enough to keep them in most games, but the offense might not be there this year. The schedule is pretty soft with only four 2007 playoff teams, but the trip to London in late October to face the Saints certainly won’t help matters. Prediction: 11-5 (soft schedule oughtta help them out a lot, at least until playoff time)
The Chiefs made some big strides this offseason, locking up Jared Allen and drafting Glenn Dorsey to give them one of the better defensive lines in the NFL. Drafting Branden Albert to shore up what was already a good offensive line was another good move. Sadly, they still don’t have a quarterback worth handing the offense to, and Larry Johnson’s body might be nearing the end of the load it can carry. They’re following the Ravens’ mold of slowly building a team, then hoping to get lucky and hit the jackpot in the draft, the free agent market, and the schedule all in the same season. This isn’t that season. Prediction: 6-10
You can’t imagine how much this hurts to admit, but I’m actually pretty high on the Raiders this year. Not like “playoffs” high, but closer to “maybe running at a .500 season”. JaMarcus Russell has some experience under his belt; Darren McFadden gives them a legitimate running threat (though Justin Fargas will still carry some of the load). The defense wasn’t really all that great last year – though in fairness, since the offense was so awful, teams never felt the need to run up the score on them. But scoring 115 less points than they allowed never helped. They upgraded the offense through the draft and through free agency, shipping out malcontent Jerry Porter and importing Drew Carter… and malcontent Javon Walker. If they can bump the weekly point average from the 17+ it was last year up to 20 or more this season, they can probably make a serious push towards eight wins or more. Prediction: 8-8
And as high as I am on Oakland, I’m just as down on Denver. Jay Cutler has yet to prove to anyone that he’s a capable NFL quarterback. The runningback by committee option has revolutionized the way the entire NFL does business, but the Broncos have gotten passed by the rest of the league. They’ve got the biggest names in the league in their defensive backfield, but they were still one of only five teams in the league to allow more than 400 points last year. They’ve got a tough schedule to contend with, including the AFC East and a back to back road trip to the Eastern Time Zone. This is not their year. Prediction: 4-12
Labels: 2008, AFC, NFL, North, Preview, West
2008 NFL Preview - Post 2
Today, it’s part two in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. It’s a beautiful day – sun’s shining, birds are chirping, and Season 4 of The Wire is in the DVD Player ready to go.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s continue – today, the NFC North & East
NFC NORTH
2007 Standings
Green Bay (13-3)
Minnesota (8-8)
Detroit (7-9)
Chicago (7-9)
One name dominates this division in 2008. And since he’s no longer in the NFC North, it’s not worth even bringing him up again until I have to. Which should be right about…
Brett Favre. There. I said it. He’s gone, and Green Bay fans (not to mention the team) will have to deal with that reality. The Packers can go one of two ways this season, they can either rally behind Aaron Rodgers and try to repeat last year’s success, or they can pack it in and use any number of excuses up to and including the loss of an icon, the new and more difficult first place schedule, etc etc etc. Look – Aaron Rodgers was a very highly touted first round quarterback a couple years ago. Brett Favre had a career year in 2007, but he was not the whole team. A serviceable QB should be able to take what is essentially the same team and lead them to about 10 or 11 wins. In the NFC North, that should be good enough for a Wild Card berth, at the very least. Prediction: 11-5
Detroit is still in a sorry state. They had another below average draft, and added absolutely nothing through free agency. But look at the list of free agents they had come off the books after the 2007 season. They shed twenty-four contracts! That’s half a team! How did they not improve through free agency? More importantly, how is Matt Millen still employed? Has anybody even seen William Clay Ford family alive in the past five years? I know it’s an old line to fall back on, but seriously, how does this guy keep his job every year? I suppose maybe Ford is falling back to the old-time sports administration, allowing a GM ten to fifteen years to fix the problems of the team. I suppose loyalty is nice, but it just doesn’t work in today’s sports world. Prediction: 5-11
The Bears had two major weaknesses this offseason – offense and defense. And that’s being generous. Somehow, they almost managed a .500 season with an aging defense and the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. They addressed the need at runningback by cutting ties with Cedric Benson and adding Matt Forte through the draft. Forte has had a pretty good preseason, but he can’t carry the offense by himself. Since the Bears are pretty much flipping a coin between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton from now through the beginning of the season, they are going to need to rely on their defense – yet again – to keep the team in games. They only signed two free agents – Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd – and kept Lance Briggs in Chicago for a handful more years, but they had a defense heavy draft. If any of those players can step up quickly, the Bears might be able to return to the playoffs in a weak NFC. But more than likely, they’ll be stuck at the bottom of the North barrel again. Prediction: 4-12
Finally, Minnesota. They’ve been the trendy pick to win the NFC before, and this year is no different. But until I see something, anything, to make me believe that Tarvaris Jackson can be a competent NFL quarterback, I won’t believe they’re much better than a mediocre team. Adrian Peterson was a revelation at runningback last year until a knee injury derailed his season. But can he repeat the same numbers this year? The Vikings biggest strength is their defense. They’ve turned into the 2005 Bears and the 2000 Ravens – Quarterback questions, an above average runningback, and a dominant defense. They could be the Super Bowl Champs. They could be 8-8 again. I’m leaning towards a Wild Card berth and just above mediocre. Prediction: 9-7
NFC East
2007 Standings
Dallas (13-3)
NY Giants (10-6)
Washington (9-7)
Philadelphia (8-8)
Listen, I know the Giants won the Super Bowl. I’ve come to terms with it. I’m not happy about it, but I’ve learned to deal with it. They went on a magical run for a month last winter, they caught every break, they made every big play, and they won it all. And after saying all that… I still don’t think they have the horses to win this division. Not that they’ll need to – I think they proved that back in February. Eli Manning finally matured into the quarterback the Giants thought they were getting four years ago. Brandon Jacobs proved that you don’t need lightning for thunder to be effective (though Ahmad Bradshaw was a nice surprise). And the defensive line was dominant for most of the year. With only two major subtractions from the team (Jeremy Shockey traded to New Orleans and Michael Strahan retired), the Giants should be primed to at least return to the playoffs, if not make another run deep into the postseason. Prediction: 10-6 (I know… it’s boring but it feels about right)
Dallas is still the top dog in this division. They’ve got the offense, they’ve got the defense. They’ve got talent all over the field, and they’ve got to be pissed about how their year ended in 2007. They’ve got absolutely no reason to lose this division, or to not advance to at least the NFC Title Game. They lost only Julius Jones and Jacques Reeves, and added Zach Thomas in free agency. Not to mention adding Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins early in the draft. They should be able to put up at least 12 wins, probably more. They have five tough games total through the season, and no tougher road trips than St. Louis following Arizona in mid-October. This looks like a good year for them. Prediction: 14-2
Washington made a nice run last year, even managing a playoff berth (though I have no idea how). But without a first round draft pick, and virtually no free agent imports or losses, the only real change for the ‘Skins was bringing in Jason Taylor who may or may not still have enough in the tank to rejuvenate their defensive line. This year, that probably won’t be enough. Jason Campbell is another quarterback on a short leash trying to prove that he still belongs in this league. They don’t have the guns to stick around all year long, on offense or defense. Prediction: 7-9
Philadelphia is kind of getting caught on the short end of the stick here. They’ve still got a top 15 QB in Donovan McNabb. Brian Westbrook is one of the all around best runningbacks in the NFL. They’ve got the defense to contend every year. But there’s something holding them back. Aside from injuries, I can’t tell you what it is. I have absolutely no idea how they lost 8 games while only allowing a total of 300 points all year. I think they were nothing more than a victim of circumstance in their division; 8-8 in a division with three playoff teams is just plain unlucky. This year, they might sneak in a Wild Card berth, but most likely they’ll be on the outside looking in again. Prediction: 9-7
Labels: 2008, East, NFC, NFL, North, Preview
2008 NFL Preview - Post 1
Beginning today, it’s a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s get going – today, the NFC West & South
NFC WEST
2007 Standings
Seattle (10-6)
Arizona (8-8)
San Francisco (5-11)
St. Louis (3-13)
I should have known better last year when I predicted all four teams to finish within three games of one another. Although at this point, it’s pretty much a guarantee to write in Seattle for 10 wins and the weakest division title of the eight.
Every year, Arizona makes a move or two to make me think maybe they’ve got it figured out this year. Maybe this is the year they put together a winning season, and maybe they actually make the playoffs. Their best offseason move was bringing in Clark Haggans from Pittsburgh, and that wasn’t all that great a move. I’m not falling for it this year. I had them at 7-9 last year and they made it to .500. This year, I’m not giving them even that much credit. Maybe they’ll win the damned Super Bowl. At least I could make some money off the 50-1 odds they’re currently getting. Prediction: 6-10
San Francisco needs to put something together, or else they need to start thinking about blowing it all up. Again. They invested heavily in players like Nate Clements and Alex Smith, and haven’t seen any type of return on their money. Since drafting Smith Number 1 overall, they’ve gone 16-32 in three years. In fairness to Smith, he’s only started 32 of the 48 games, but his stats haven’t been all that great either – 19 career TD’s to 31 INT’s, and a total of just under 4800 yards passing. To me, those aren’t franchise QB numbers. Give him one more year, then start looking at the next option. Prediction: 4-12
St. Louis made a major upgrade on their defensive line when they grabbed Chris Long to anchor their DE position for years to come. But after their first round pick, you’d be hard pressed to find another player worth mentioning. I mean, seriously – read some of the player evaluations from ESPN’s post-draft “grades” page. Throw in the fact that their best offensive player, Stephen Jackson, is currently in the middle of a hold-out for a long term contract, and St. Louis might be looking at another season of wondering how high they’ll be drafting in April. Prediction: 2-14
Like I said before – Seattle is just about a guarantee for 10 wins and a de facto division title. They released former league MVP Shaun Alexander (and it’s fairly shocking that absolutely no one has shown any interest in him… there’s a lot more to that story and I’m certain it will come out eventually). They imported TJ Duckett and Julius Jones to take over the rushing load. Of course, Matt Hasslebeck still has absolutely no one reliable to throw the ball to. Let’s just say 10 wins to be safe. Prediction: 10-6
NFC SOUTH
2007 Standings:
Tampa Bay (9-7)
Carolina (7-9)
New Orleans (7-9)
Atlanta (4-12)
Welcome to the worst division in football. This was the only division to have a team on top with fewer than 10 wins last season. Don’t expect much more out of them this year.
Atlanta has had some time to recover from the Michael Vick fiasco. They’ve got a new face of the franchise in Matt Ryan. They let go of TJ Duckett and Warrick Dunn, and replaced them with the dynamic Michael Turner. They imported Jason Elam – on of the most clutch kickers in NFL history, something that can’t be undervalued – stealing him away from the Broncos. Their only big losses were Alge Crumpler and Demorrio Williams. But they still don’t have the defense to shut down the high powered offenses in the NFL – the Saints will probably give them trouble both times this year. They allowed almost 160 more point than they scored last year – the gap should close a little this year, but not enough to matter. Prediction: 3-13
Tampa Bay missed out on the Brett Favre sweepstakes, meaning they’re stuck with the same problem they’ve had since… well since forever really – they need a quarterback. They’ve continued to get older without addressing their biggest needs, and this could be the year it comes back to haunt them. The rest of the division will catch up to them eventually. Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway and Earnest Graham will only carry this team so far, and this year it might not even be to the playoffs. Prediction: 9-7
New Orleans got stuck with an above average team and a first place schedule last year – they weren’t ready for what a successful run in 2006 brought them. This year, they’ve got the same above average team plus the addition of Jeremy Shockey and the addition of Sedrick Ellis in the draft helps shore up a weak defensive line. Look out for rookie Adrian Arrington as well as a Troy Brown, over the middle possession receiver type. (though it might just be my Michigan bias). Prediction: 11-5
Carolina made a lot of moves this offseason, importing plenty of familiar faces to try and rebuild a team that scored only 267 points in 16 games last season. Unfortunately, they did nothing to address their biggest need – bringing in another quarterback to legitimately challenge Jake Delhomme for the starting job. They had a fantastic top of the draft getting Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah, and late round selection Nick Hayden could grow into quite a playmaker on the defensive line. But until they start averaging more than 17 points a game, they’re not going to be able to compete with the rest of the NFC. Prediction: 9-7
Labels: 2008, NFC, NFL, Preview, South, West
I survived...
...Though barely. My bankroll, however, did not.
I've been home for a little over a week now, still trying to sort out exactly what went wrong in my twenty days in Las Vegas through June & July. For the time being, let's just call it a bad experience, on the whole.
As I wrote in the
last post from Vegas (wow, it's really been two weeks? Yikes...) I never would have booked the second trip had I known the truth about the freeroll tournament at the Harrah's casino. I'm still pissed about that one. So chalk it all up to bad information, I guess.
For now, I'm focusing on a couple of blogging projects back here at home, and nursing the bankroll back to health with small money cash games and cheap tournaments at Foxwoods.
As for what's going on over here, well I'm planning to write up my yearly NFL Preview Post sometime in the next 3-5 weeks, before the official beginning of training camp. Expect many jokes at Brett Favre's expense, and the expense of whichever team is stupid enough to allow him onto their 53-man roster. And as in the past, there will be a weekly NFL Picks post coming every Friday. This year, though, it's going to be a little different.
Those of you that found my site as an off-shoot from the
danshanoff.com blog have probably already found your way over to the new ds.com commenters page, hosted at
Sparty & Friends. Well, the good men who moderate that site - Sparty, Trey & Marco - have graciously given me a forum for the weekly NFL Picks post. So on this site, I'll post a small teaser (or maybe just a quick 2-line post with an introduction), followed by a link over to the Sparty & Friends blog. Here's hoping it's a win-win for everyone. Also, here' hoping I don't screw up the use of the "royal we" that they have so artfully adopted over there.
Back again soon with a baseball post or two before kicking off the NFL season.
Lata.
Labels: Gambling, Las Vegas, NFL, NFL Picks, poker, Sparty and Friends
2008 NFL Draft - Pseudo Live-Blog
6:45pm: With the first round over (and in record time - 3 hours less than last year, thank God) I'm packing it in for the night. All in all, a pretty exciting NFL Draft so far. Lots of trades, some surprises, and two outright stick-ups by the Eagles & Ravens. Glad to have been here. Let's see who wins the Chad Johnson auction tomorrow...
6:38pm: Nice, Mort makes a fried chicken joke to Keyshawn, and everyone on the ESPN set freezes mid sentence. God forbid anyone makes a joke anymore. Wonder how long it takes for ESPN to force a Mort apology and banish him to Cold Pizza (sorry - "First Take") for six months...
6:32pm: ...Or, the Jets can trade up to take a tight end. Either way, really. By the way - ESPN just cut away to the fans for a lead-in to a commercial break, and it reminded me of a mosh pit back in high school. Just a bunch of white guys, probably a little drunk, jumping up and down with their hands in the air, making general asses of themselves. God I hated high school. Almost as much as I hate these Jets & Giants fans.
6:23pm: Gotta admit, I'm a little scared right now. The Jets just traded back into the first round at #30 with Green Bay - I've got to imagine they're going to grab a runningback or receiver. Then there's the Patriots' forfeited pick, then the Giants go #32. All in all, this is going to be an interesting 25 minutes for New Yorkers.
5:22pm: Now that we've had our first major "Character issue" pick - Aqib Talib from Kansas going #20 to Tampa Bay, I'm heading out for a little while. I am interested to see how the ESPN crew, and Goddell handle the 31st overall pick - I'm wondering if they'll jsut holda moment of silence, or if they'll wait the full 10 minutes for the pick before announcing "Oh, that's right, the Patriots forfeited it because of a stupid rule that every other coach in the NFL violates in some way or another". But until that time, I'm out.
5:17pm: Yet another highway robbery... Phily trades out of the first round with the Panthers, and they pick up Carolina's 2nd and 4th pick this year,
and Carolina's #1 next year! Andy Reid is either a genius or a complete moron, and I'm leaning toward genius.
5:11pm: Finally, someone woke up and took Jeff Otah off the board. The Panthers traded up with Philly to get him, causing many confused Eagles fans to hold their heads in disbelief, followed shortly by the ceremonial booing and throwing of batteries towards the stage. Nice moment here as the NFL honors military servicemen on stage... and the ESPN crew spends the first 55 seconds of a 60 second ceremony continuing to debate the Otah pick. Seems like they finally shut off the microphones right in the middle of a Keyshawn Johnson point - I'm sure he'll be OK with that...
5:01pm: The Ravens have traded back up into the first round, taking Houston's #18 overall pick. Looks like they're grabbing Joe Flacco from Delaware ahead of Briam Brohm & Chad Henne. Interesting... talk about someone raising their stock through a great showing at the combine. Mel Kiper must be thrilled about this pick - he's been pimping Flacco as a first rounder for weeks. I just enjoy typing the name Joe Flacco - seems like he belongs in a bodega in northern Jersey instead of shoulderpads in Baltimore, but whatever.
4:58pm: I'm not even going to pretend to know how to pronounce or spell the name of the offensive tackle the Lions just selected #17 overall. All I know is that they A) didn't take the best available tackle, and B) didn't select a wide receiver. I'm disappointed on many levels here.
4:55pm: Chris Mortensen with the throwaway line of the first round so far, in describing Arizona's first round pick Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: "He only has one kidney, but GM's seem to have decided that they're OK with that." Wait... what?!?
4:47pm: And naturally, the Lions immediately trade away the pick to the Chiefs, who use it to take yet another offensive lineman not named Otah. At least this one was a guard - Brandon Albert. It's almost like the Lions are teasing me - dropping farther and farther down the board so they can justify using a first round pick on a receiver, as long as it's at like #25 overall...
4:42pm: Crap - Steve Young just proved why he belongs on the stage ahead of me. He made a great point - the Lions have the best QB in the NFC North right now in Jon Kitna... which is a really scary thought for the NFC North. Detroit has to go either runningback or o-lineman.
4:37pm: We've had three offensive tackles taken so far, and yet the consensus #2 tackle on just about every board - Jeff Otah - before this draft started is still available. How is this possible? Jake Long - OK, that makes sense. But Ryan Clady and Chris Williams ahead of Otah? Really? By the way - I've got fingers and toes crossed right now praying the Lions manage to take DeSean Jackson. It would be even better if they grabbed Malcolm Kelly - not only would they screw up by taking another first round receiver, but they wouldn't even get the consensus best one out there...
4:29pm: The Panthers take Jonathan Stewart at #13, leading ESPN to run a quick montage of Stewart's running plays from Oregon. I think in the nine clips they showed, I counted seven different Ducks' uniforms - each of which nearly gave me a seizure. We're nearing the moment of truth for the Lions... I'm giddy just thinking about Roger Goodell saying "With the 15th pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, Matt Millen has committed career suicide and selected DeSean Jackson."
4:25pm: After Buffalo & Denver make largely non-descript picks, it's Carolina, Chicago & Detroit. Anybody else hoping that the Lions get stuck with taking "Best Available"... and it's a receiver? I'm openly rooting for this to happen.
4:17pm: Random funny note - the ticker at the bottom of the screen running each team's "Key loss" and "Key addition"... for Seattle they list the Key Loss as "PK Josh Brown". Really? He was the biggest loss? Not the 2005 NFL MVP Runningback that the Seahawks cut last week? Also, Chris Berman just said the patriots were going to get a 15 yard penalty for "holding the Mayo". God I loathe him - not only was the joke unfunny, but I can't remember the last time I saw a 15-yard holding penalty in the NFL.
4:13pm: Love the Jets fans trying like hell to drown out the Patriots' pick... And love the pick of Jerod Mayo here for New England. Corner or LB - had to be one or the other. I thought Mayo would
go 9th to Cincy, but certainly not upset with landing him 10th. The extra 3rd round pick from the Saints should come in handy as well.
4:11pm: In theory, with Buffalo & Denver holding the next two picks, the Pats could maybe afford to move down again here, since neither of those teams need a corner. But I still expect them to take Rodgers-Cromartie here and try to shore up the hole that Asante Samuel left in going to Philly.
4:07pm: Good Lord - the Ravens absolutley robbed the Jaguars for that pick! They moved down 18 spots in the first round, and picked up
three more picks for their trouble? Harvey better turn into an All-Pro in the next three years...
4:01pm: The Jags take who? I mean, I've seen this kid Derrick Harvey play, but I can think of a couple d-lineman still on the board who have got to be better than him. Maybe it's the hometown discount thing - the kid did go to college 20 miles away from Jacksonville. And I'm extremely disappointed to see Keith Rivers celebrating at his house with the Bengals on the clock. Was really hoping he'd drop to the Patriots at #10 overall. But I'm not complaining if they end up with Rodgers-Cromartie, and I'm sure they won't be either. They had 2 guys in mind, and as long as they get either of them, they've got to be happy.
3:56pm: OK, I don't think
anybody saw a Jacksonville/Baltimore trade coming. I thought the Ravens
might move down if Matt Ryan was gone, but that's an awful steep move to 26th. Maybe they'll package a bunch to come back up and get a QB, but Brian Brohm or Joe Flacco should both be available around the mid 20's... this could work out very well for them, both in gaining picks and saving salary money.
3:53PM: ...and the Saints take Sedrick Ellis. Of course they do.
3:51pm: "There has been a trade between the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints. The Saints are now on the clock..." How am I not on stage instead of Steve Young? What analysis does he really bring that I couldn't?
3:43pm: Hmm... Jets & Patriots back to back... nah, no chance the fans at Radio City get fired up for the next twenty five minutes... Jets take Gholston. Excuse me while I go fashion a nice little noose for my stupidity... Actually, no. I'd like to see who the Pats take, or if they take anybody, before I go hang myself for missing an opportunity like this.
3:35pm: You know, I'm legitimately pissed at myself. Bodog.com, among other sites, was offering all kinds of odds on the top 10 picks in the NFL Draft (obviously with Jake Long off the board). So far with the Chiefs grabbing Glenn Dorsey, I'm five for five, four for four in actual "unknowns". If the Jets take Gholston and the Pats trade with the Saints to grab Sedrick Ellis, I'm quitting while I'm ahead.
3:27pm: Wow -
4 for 4... I know, I'm stunned too. But honestly, was there ever a doubt that the Raiders would take the home run offensive threat with the questionable off-field personality in Darren McFadden? I mean, that had to be like a 23/27 favorite on the board at The Mirage this morning...
3:13pm: Just flipped on the draft (don't ask... got busy)... looking pretty good from
yesterday's post. Got the #1 & #2 pick correct so far, Long & Long. Let's see where the Falcons go... loving the ESPN montage here showing all the shit Atlanta's been through in the past 12 months. Tough year.
Labels: Draft, Live Blog, NFL, NFL Draft
2008 NFL Draft
Alright everybody. I’ve been studying. I’ve read everything I can get my hands on relating to this year’s NFL Draft. I’ve watched countless hours of Mel Kiper & Todd McShay arguing about Glenn Dorsey’s knees, Vernon Gholston’s arm strength and Matt Ryan’s presence. And after all that, I’ve come up with this analysis of the 2008 NFL Draft. Ready?
I’m about 97% certain that Jake Long, offensive tackle from Michigan, is going to be picked #1 overall by the Dolphins. After that, well as always, it’s pretty much a crapshoot. Hope you haven’t come here looking for some type of competent breakdown of the entire first round of the draft, because let’s face it guys – none of us ever get it right.
Jake Long, well that’s the gimme. Since he’s already had the press conference in a Dolphins cap and expressed how happy he is to be in Miami, I’d say it’s a done deal. Let’s just roll through the rest of the top 10 because let’s face it – after the first 10 picks, most of us are in a Kiper Coma on the couch anyway.
2. St. Louis Rams
Chris Long, DE – Virginia. It’s a coin flip between Long & Glenn Dorsey here for the Rams. Long has the advantage of an NFL pedigree, and he allows them to move Adam Carrikker back to D-Tackle and improve their pass rush.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan, QB – Boston College. No brainer, unless they try to trade down since nobody from 4-7 really needs a QB. There’s a risk involved in that move though, as the Ravens at pick #8 are praying that Ryan slips to someone they can trade up with for whatever reason. But the Falcons have to know by now that Byron Leftwich & Joey Harrington aren’t going to cut it this season.
4. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB – Arkansas. I can’t imagine a situation in which Al Davis passes on the big time offensive threat, even when the defense is getting older and slowing down. McFadden is the obvious choice here, even with the money they’ve spent on Dominic Rhodes & Lamont Jordan the past two offseasons. However, if Davis isn’t the one calling the shots here, look for a defensive presence – either Dorsey or Gholston.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Glenn Dorsey, DE – LSU. The Chiefs have plenty of time to pick up a densive lineman to replace the newly departed Jared Allen – in fact, since they got another first rounder out of the deal, they could use it to get his replacement. But this pick gives them an impact defender on an abysmal defensive line that ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed last season but was top 10 in passing yards allowed and sacks recorded. Why wait when you can get him here?
6. New York Jets
Vernon Gholston, DE/LB – Ohio State. I just don’t think there’s anyway this kid lives up to the hype he’s created for himself. He’s not Mike Mamula, but he was a middle of the road prospect until he showed up in Indianapolis and showed off his biceps. If he gets put into a system that showcases his skills, or if he gets moved to LB full time, he could be a good defensive player for a long time. But I don’t think he’s got what it takes to bang bodies on the line in the NFL.
7. New England Patriots
Keith Rivers, LB – USC. Let me start by saying I’m almost 100% convinced that the Patriots do not keep this pick. But if somehow the Pats do keep it, they take a cornerback (Cromartie?) or linebacker (Rivers), because D-Line is probably the one spot in New England (besides QB) that should be set for the next five years. There’s all kind of talk about the Saints and/or Bengals trying to move up, both of whom are in love with Sedrick Ellis. Cincy has the #9 pick, New Orleans has the #10. And if I’m New England, I’m moving this pick to whichever team offers me a first round flip with a third rounder and next year’s first or second. With all the holes Cincy needs to fill, I can’t see them offering that much. (Also, if New England’s smart – which they’ve proven to be – they take the newly acquired third rounder and package it with their own second rounder and make a play to Miami for Jason Taylor. Picks #63 and either 73 or 74 overall in the draft might be enough to get Taylor away from the Dolphins, even if Belichick & Parcells would have to shake hands to make it happen.)
8. Baltimore Ravens
Antonio Rodgers-Cormartie, CB – Tennessee State. The Ravens obviously are more in need of a stable quarterback than another big playmaker on defense. But if Ryan’s off the board, the next QB will be one of either Brian Brohm, Joe Flacco or Chad Henne. None of those three are top-10 picks, so the Ravens will either have to trade down (or use other picks to trade back up later in the round) or else take the best available player that they feel like fits their team. A star CB with big play potential certainly fits that bill.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Jerod Mayo, LB – Tennessee. Plenty of options to choose from in the 9-hole, but I think the Bengals are going to need to focus on fixing their defense this year. Side Note: How in the hell did Cincy turn down a first and a third round pick for Chad Johnson? Especially when the third rounder could turn into as much as another first?!? Good God – never before has a team been offered a five quarters for a dollar trade after the dollar has publicly said that they don’t want to be in that particular wallet anymore, and the Bengals decided to turn it down? Are they expecting more for their disgruntled dollar? Perhaps five quarters and a dime? Sometimes sports makes no sense to me – the only explanation I can come up with is that Marvin Lewis doesn’t want to give in and trade Chad away because he’s afraid that anyone on the team who doesn’t like his approach will immediately go to the media and whine about the situation to try and get traded. Thing is – that’s what happens anyway.
10. New Orleans Saints
Sedrick Ellis, DE – USC. I’m writing this as if New Orleans is actually making this pick. Honestly, I believe the Saints end up with Ellis at #7 overall, and the Pats grab Rivers here. Either way, New Orleans could use a little more help on the O-Line and Pitt’s Jeff Otah would be hard to pass up here, but Rivers is the best LB still available, and the Saints’ defense was absolutely awful in ’07.
I could go on and on about the rest of the round, or even the draft, but let’s face it – I’ll be stunned if I’ve gotten even three of these picks right. Except Jake Long. I’m feeling pretty confident about that one.
Last year, I live-blogged the NFL Draft from a golf course. Or at least, I attempted to. Things didn’t work out so well after my cell phone/PDA battery decided that 45 minutes of combined battery life were more than enough for one day. This year, I’ve got a newer, better cell phone/PDA with almost three hours of life… and even more importantly, I’ll be home in front of my TV! I’m not planning a full live-blog, but I am going to try to login a couple times per round at least through the first and drop some informational nuggets out there for all of you to enjoy.
Other quick notes before I bow out for the night:
n It was very nice to have the Bruins semi-relevant in this area again, if only for a couple weeks. I stayed away from writing about them last week because I didn’t want to seem like every other writer who jumped off the bandwagon years ago and just got back on in time for the postseason. Two years ago, I wrote this post about the state of the NHL. And until about two months ago, I stood by everything I had said. But then I slowly started flipping channels and coming across VersusHD (thank God!)… and then I started checking out the standings and realizing that the sport wasn’t nearly as dead as it was last season… and then ESPN started showing me more and more NHL highlights, and suddenly I was right back into it. I will freely admit that I probably watched 30 hockey games total this year, and most of them were Penguins games back when I was still in the ‘burgh. But I’m very glad to have hockey back in my life. Now, if the Bruins could just find a way to never play the Canadians again…
n I had actually planned to jump on here last week and write a quick breakdown of the first round of the NBA playoffs. But it turns out that I have even less time to do stuff now that I’m not working a normal 9-5 job anymore. My days are all screwed up when I spend 14-18 hours one day playing cards, then the next two days trying to catch up on sleep. Anyway, for the record, I have the Celtics (duh) in four, Magic in five, Cavs (don’t EVER trash talk LeBron… duh) in six, and Pistons in six winning in the East, with the Spurs in five, Hornets in five, Jazz in six & Lakers in five in the West. I know – really going out on a limb there taking the top four seeds in each conference. After that, I’ve got the Celtics in six over Cleveland, Magic in seven over Detroit, Lakers in six over Utah and Spurs in five over New Orleans. Finally, I like the Celtics in six over Orlando and Lakers in seven over the Spurs. I’m leaving the Finals alone for now. Too far away to start guessing at that.
I should be on here tomorrow, even if it’s only for a couple of quick-hit posts during the NFL Draft. See you all then.
Lata.
Labels: Draft, NBA, NFL, NHL, Playoffs, Postseason
