2008 NFL Preview - Post 4
Today, it’s the final installment in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. Another beautiful day here in Southern New England – started with 18 holes and a good solid lunch, and now the final NFL Preview Post before tomorrow’s post with SpartyAndFriends.
So let’s finish it up – today, the AFC South & East
AFC SOUTH
2007 Standings
Indianapolis (13-3)
Jacksonville (11-5)
Tennessee (10-6)
Houston (8-8)
Much like the Eagles in 2007, the Houston Texans were a victim of circumstance last year. They played well enough to win half of their games, but got stuck in a division with three playoff teams. Division play accounted for five of their eight losses, with the other three coming to the Chargers – runners up in the AFC title game – the Browns, who just missed the playoffs, and the Falcons; really no excuse for the loss to the Falcons. But of their eight wins, only two came against teams above .500 – Week 14 at home against Tampa Bay, and Week 17 blowout at home against a Jacksonville team resting their starters. So are they a good team in an unlucky divisional situation? Or are they really a middle of the road, 8-8 type team that might get a few breaks and knock off the actual contenders here and there? A full, healthy season out of Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Ahman Green (or Steve Slaton… actually, Slaton’s probably the better option at this point) will give us the answer. They open the year with four of five games against last year’s playoff teams – three on the road. That’s the type of run that wears a team down and exposes major flaws. After that, they have a fairly soft schedule, and might be able to string together a couple wins. Prediction: 7-9
I honestly believe the Tennessee Titans were a fluke last season. They snuck in a win in Week 1 against the Jaguars, then didn’t beat an above .500 team until Week 17 when they still needed to win for a playoff berth, but the Colts were already guaranteed the #2 seed. Vince Young had two different games last year in which he threw for under 80 yards (both wins, somehow) and 10 games under 200 yards passing. LenDale White hasn’t exactly asserted himself as anything more than a bruising goal line or short yardage back, the kind of guy who pushes the middle of the pile three or four yards at a time. The defense is still dominant, allowing under 300 points last season (297, four points less than they scored), but among the eight playoff teams only one other AFC team allowed more – Jacksonville at 304 – and all three entrants from the NFC East. This year’s schedule is very, very kind to them with only two road games against 2007 playoff teams – both NFC South rivals – and only two playoff team from out of their division; Green Bay and Pittsburgh come to town in Weeks 9 and 16 respectively. Fluke or not, they can probably put together another 10 win season and maybe sneak into the playoffs again. Prediction: 10-6
Jacksonville struck me as a bit of a streaky team last season. They had three separate three-game winning streaks during the year, punctuated with a 49-11 pasting of the Raiders in Week 16. David Garrard looks like the real deal as an NFL Quarterback he’s they type of player that will keep you in games, minimize mistakes and do damage control when necessary, and he might even make a big play or three every week to seal a victory. This year, by the grace of the scheduling gods they get four virtual freebies with the AFC & NFC North divisions – though all four (Chicago, Cincy, Detroit & Baltimore) are road games. They get the four tough teams from those divisions right at home in Northern Florida, a situation that can only help their numbers. Outside of those eight and their six division games, they get Denver & Buffalo – both should be wins. This could be a big year in Jacksonville. Wonder what that’ll be like… Prediction: 13-3
Indianapolis lucked out early this year. Not only do they get to christen a brand new stadium, but their first two games (when Peyton Manning may or may not be able to play) are against teams that they should be able to handle with Jim Sorgi under center; Chicago & Minnesota. Another beneficiary of this year’s North/South divisional battles, they unfortunately have to travel to all four of the other division’s contenders while getting the four relative cupcakes in Indy. Throw in the yearly rivalry game with New England (at home) and the new budding rivalry game with San Diego (in SoCal) and the Colts have a pretty rough schedule overall. If Manning and/or Marvin Harrison aren’t completely recovered from knee problems, this could be a long year for the Colts. But I’m betting they’ll both be at least at their averages, which is pretty damned good compared to everyone else. Prediction: 12-4 (That’s right – this is the year Indy doesn’t control the AFC South)
AFC EAST
2007 Standings
New England (16-0)
Buffalo (7-9)
New York Jets (4-12)
Miami (1-15)
Miami could be a shock this year. Let’s face it – they’re not going to get worse. But they imported Chad Pennington to be a competent, if not stunning quarterback and run a system. They have a rejuvenated Ricky Williams to pair with Ronnie Brown in the backfield once Brown is healthy. They overhauled the defense and got younger all over the place, which may or may not be a good thing. And they revamped the coaching staff and administration, bringing the Big Tuna down to Marlin country. They’re not going to win 10 games and sneak into the playoffs – let’s be serious. But they could easily sneak out five or six games and regain a modicum of respectability. Prediction: 5-11
For all the noise Buffalo seems to make either in the draft or free agency every year, they haven’t really contended in over half a decade. In this year’s draft they again took a cornerback off the board about ten spots too high in the first round rather than trading down and getting the same player plus some picks, and got a wide receiver in the second who’s profile says he “doesn’t make crisp cuts… needs to work on route running… going to have a tough time separating from man coverage…” Wow – what a draft day steal! Did I mention their big free agent acquisition this year was Kawika Mitchell from the Giants? Or that they lost both a starting wide receiver and cornerback to division rival New England? Or that their schedule has them playing New England twice after the bye week, plus San Diego, Jacksonville and Cleveland, and those are just the games they should lose? Prediction: 6-10
Now, to the Brett Favre portion of this NFL Preview… Listen, the Jets made a move that was necessary. They settled their quarterback controversy for at least this season and possibly one or two more in the future. They brought in an all-time great quarterback and handed him the keys to the city (though, not literally; not yet at least). But last time I checked, Brett can’t play defense and help slow up the 200 passing and 135 rushing yards the Jets allowed per game. He can’t play runningback to boost the 100 rushing yards per game, though he might have to use his legs and scramble a little behind that line. He can only help solve some of the offensive problems the Jets suffered through in ’07 (268 points scored is embarrassing, even if it was second in the division). I’ll admit – as soon as I head the news on the trade I tried to drop some money on the Jets’ Over/Under for wins this year which was still at 4.5 (it moved to 7.5 before I could get it done which is right in the middle of where I think they’ll be… damnit). This team was a playoff team in 2006, but that 10-6 season kind of came out of left field after three straight years of four, four and six wins. They’ll be better. But don’t expect any “Broadway” repeats this year. Prediction: 7-9 (and I’m being generous because of their out-of-division schedule… they could win four or they could win ten. I’m shooting for the middle)
Finally, my beloved New England Patriots. I mistakenly thought early season injuries and suspensions would cost them a chance at a perfect season in 2007; little did I know it would be a miraculous catch (and three uncalled holding penalties on the play) coupled with one of the worst attempts at pass coverage I have ever seen at the end of the year that cost them history. I’d love to play the “This year, they’re reinvigorated” card here, make something up about them being pissed to the point of being maniacal, stopping at nothing to reach perfection. But I don’t see it happening. Don’t get me wrong – they’re still the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl, and rightfully so. But 19-0? Don’t see it. They’ll lose one somewhere, maybe a flukey game like Week 13 last year in Baltimore; every bounce, every call, everything will fall the wrong way. Maybe it will be against a terrible opponent like the Ravens (or this year, the Broncos or Rams. That’s my guess). Maybe it’ll be to a comparable team like the Colts or Steelers where everyone just watches it and says “nope, not winning this one”. Might even happen twice. But I think it’ll come somewhere. And they’ll be better for it. Prediction: 14-2
So that’s it for this year’s NFL preview. As always, I’m ecstatic if I get 50% of the teams within one game – either way – of their actual final records, though last year I only got 12 of 32 within that one game. And we won’t discuss what I wrote about the Giants or the Jaguars, among others, in 2007. So here’s hoping to less mistakes than last year. How’s that for a rallying cry?
See you on Friday afternoon over at SpartyAndFriends, and every week during the season you can find the weekly picks over there with a recap post here on Mondays or Tuesdays.
Lata.
Labels: 2008, AFC, East, NFL, Preview, South
2008 NFL Preview - Post 3
Today, its part three in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. My apologies for the lack of a post yesterday – a headache kept me in bed until the mid afternoon and by then, I wasn’t in much of a mood to post.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s continue – today, the AFC North & West
AFC NORTH
2007 Standings
Pittsburgh (10-6)
Cleveland (10-6)
Cincinnati (7-9)
Baltimore (5-11)
Cleveland pulled out nothing short of a miracle last season, and they were rewarded with exactly the same thing they’ve gotten every year since they came back into the league – an early tee time, and a nice front row seat to watch the other twelve teams in the playoffs. I don’t know how much stock I put in Derek Anderson repeating last season’s performance, or Braylon Edwards & Kellen Winslow playing a full 16. The Browns still strike me as a team on the rise, but this season feels like it might be a small step back before they can make the next push forward. Prediction: 8-8
Baltimore made three solid picks through the draft in Joe Flacco, Ray Rice & Tom Zbikowski from Notre Dame (yes, I had to look that one up. Twice. And now my spell-checker hates me), and they not only managed to lose very little in free agency, but they held onto their biggest chip in Terrell Suggs. Unfortunately, Willis McGahee still has a lingering injury, and although Joe Flacco has a cannon for an arm, it doesn’t look like the Ravens have any intention of letting him under center this year unless they have to. With a weaker, aging defense and an inexperienced offense, they probably have another year or two before they can get the players and the favorable schedule to expect to be serious contenders in the AFC again. Prediction: 4-12
Pittsburgh has got an absolutely brutal schedule – seven playoff teams, plus two against the Browns who just missed the postseason in 2007. Ben Roethlisberger had a fantastic year last season, but the Steelers fell apart when it came to playing anyone wearing a Jacksonville uniform. They added another solid runningback in Rashard Mendenhall, but lost a handful of good players through free agency – most notably Clark Haggans and Alan Faneca. Just looking at the games they have throughout the season, I can see seven different games where they will probably be the underdog. That’s not good. I’ll give them credit for squeaking out at least one of those. Prediction: 10-6
And then there’s Cincinnati. For a very long time, the Arizona Cardinals were, single-handedly, the worst run franchise in the NFL. In the past five or six years, the Detroit Lions have come rushing up from the middle of the pack to lay a solid grip on the title. But the Bengals are making an awful strong push to contend for the crown. They can’t keep team morale out of the toilet. They can’t put a quality team on the field, since half the team out of prison long enough to learn the playbook. And just when they were turning a corner, tossing out problem children like Odell Thurman and Chris Henry, they went right back to their old demons and resigned Henry this week so they could field a legitimate starting wide receiving corps. This team is going nowhere, and they’re getting there as fast as they can. There’s a legitimate chance that with their schedule they could go 0-16. Prediction: 2-14 (They gotta sneak one or two out somehow…)
AFC WEST
2007 Standings
San Diego (11-5)
Denver (7-9)
Oakland (4-12)
Kansas City (4-12)
I wrote this in a post during last year’s Championship Round – San Diego and their fans have never won a thing. Yet everyone wearing a San Diego Chargers jersey – players, fans, staff, cabbies in the street – all act like the Chargers are the rightful heirs to the next great NFL dynasty. I’ve seen nothing to make me think they’ve got anything more than another division title and another playoff flameout in them this year. Philip Rivers and LdT are both coming off of knee injuries, and Antonio Gates hasn’t set foot on a practice field this year with problems with his foot. Their defense is still strong enough to keep them in most games, but the offense might not be there this year. The schedule is pretty soft with only four 2007 playoff teams, but the trip to London in late October to face the Saints certainly won’t help matters. Prediction: 11-5 (soft schedule oughtta help them out a lot, at least until playoff time)
The Chiefs made some big strides this offseason, locking up Jared Allen and drafting Glenn Dorsey to give them one of the better defensive lines in the NFL. Drafting Branden Albert to shore up what was already a good offensive line was another good move. Sadly, they still don’t have a quarterback worth handing the offense to, and Larry Johnson’s body might be nearing the end of the load it can carry. They’re following the Ravens’ mold of slowly building a team, then hoping to get lucky and hit the jackpot in the draft, the free agent market, and the schedule all in the same season. This isn’t that season. Prediction: 6-10
You can’t imagine how much this hurts to admit, but I’m actually pretty high on the Raiders this year. Not like “playoffs” high, but closer to “maybe running at a .500 season”. JaMarcus Russell has some experience under his belt; Darren McFadden gives them a legitimate running threat (though Justin Fargas will still carry some of the load). The defense wasn’t really all that great last year – though in fairness, since the offense was so awful, teams never felt the need to run up the score on them. But scoring 115 less points than they allowed never helped. They upgraded the offense through the draft and through free agency, shipping out malcontent Jerry Porter and importing Drew Carter… and malcontent Javon Walker. If they can bump the weekly point average from the 17+ it was last year up to 20 or more this season, they can probably make a serious push towards eight wins or more. Prediction: 8-8
And as high as I am on Oakland, I’m just as down on Denver. Jay Cutler has yet to prove to anyone that he’s a capable NFL quarterback. The runningback by committee option has revolutionized the way the entire NFL does business, but the Broncos have gotten passed by the rest of the league. They’ve got the biggest names in the league in their defensive backfield, but they were still one of only five teams in the league to allow more than 400 points last year. They’ve got a tough schedule to contend with, including the AFC East and a back to back road trip to the Eastern Time Zone. This is not their year. Prediction: 4-12
Labels: 2008, AFC, NFL, North, Preview, West
2007 NFL Preview - Part III
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go!
Today, the AFC South, North, and East. Click here for Part I of the Preview: NFC West & North – and click here for Part II: NFC South & East, and AFC West. Also a programming note; with the NFL season kicking off on Thursday, and with my actual day job kicking into high gear with our very own Opening Day on Tuesday, I probably won’t have a ton of time this week for my weekly NFL picks. I will probably post on Wednesday for Thursday’s Indy/New Orleans game, then come back on Friday for the weekend & Monday Night Football picks.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Tennessee Titans: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Houston Texans: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
Jacksonville Jaguars: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
This division has belonged to the Colts for far too long. There’s no reason that another team (*cough* Titans *cough*) couldn’t move up and take advantage of all of Indy’s losses this offseason. But the fact remains, Indy is still the class of the AFC South, and they’ve got the rings to prove it. (Note: I made a decision last week – I refuse to recognize the Colts’ Super Bowl victory last February. The guy who could have easily been the Super Bowl MVP, Dominic Rhodes, was found to be on PEDs a couple weeks later. He kinda had a big game in Miami (21 carries for 113 yards)… wonder if the steroids/supplements helped at all?)
Tennessee looks to be the team that has the best chance to build off of last season. They had an outside shot at the playoffs before the final week of the season in ’06, and with another year of experience Vince Young can only get better. As long as he avoids the Madden Curse. They could easily put it together and push the Colts. And they probably will make a good run towards a Wild Card spot. The only thing that scares me is the relative uncertainty of their backfield situation.
Houston made a couple major changes this offseason, both on the offensive side of the ball, and both likely to pay dividends almost immediately. Matt Schaub was wasting away on the Falcons’ bench behind Michael Vick; now he gets the chance to run a team for a full season. And after Domanick Davis’ lost season to injury in ’06, the running game suffered through a handful of starting running backs. The addition of Ahman Green could revitalize the Texans’ offense, though he isn’t making fans forget passing up Reggie Bush or Vince Young anytime soon…
(EDIT: This was completely rewritten after the Jags’ released Byron Leftwich this past weekend. I still can’t figure that move out…) Now that Jacksonville is counting on David Garrard to run the show… well… I’m not counting on much out of them this year. Not that I’m anti-Garrard – the guy can probably play, and can definitely move around well enough to generate some offense on his own. He’s about 70% the offensive threat that Vince Young is. The problem is the timing – the team has been working under the assumption that Byron Leftwich was their starter, and then all of a sudden, he’s not only not their starter, but he’s not even on the team. Seems a little sudden to me, is all. Maybe they’ll win 10. Maybe they’ll have the #1 overall pick in ’08. I’m leaning a little more toward the latter.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: ’06 Record (13-6), ’07 Prediction (14-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
Cincinnati Bengals: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
Cleveland Browns: ’06 Record (4-12), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Baltimore did nothing to get worse this offseason, and they got much, much better by bringing in Willis McGahee from the Buffalo Bills. If he doesn’t run for 1500 and 15+ TDs this season behind that line, I’ll be completely stunned. But unfortunately, they still haven’t addressed a nagging need at quarterback – Steve McNair isn’t getting any younger, and he was barely in the top half of NFL QBs last season in QB Rating (14th of 32 with a rating of 82.5). But the defense is still dominant – a ridiculous 12.6 points allowed per game last season. Maybe they don’t need a QB after all…
In much the same way that people forget just how good the Eagles were before their QB got injured, the Steelers actually won a Super Bowl before their QB got injured. And yes, I freely admit that I’ve heard too much about the Steelers in the past four months. But the fact remains that even with a new coaching staff, the Steelers still have a very good young QB, a good running back, some pretty decent receivers, and a defense that has consistently been hard to score on. If they don’t at least push the Ravens for the division, they should be in the Wild Card hunt by late November.
The Bengals, much like the Ravens, did nothing to get worse in the offseason. Unfortunately, they did little to get better. They are without a very big deep threat in the passing game for the first half of the season while Chris Henry serves a suspension. And their defense couldn’t have more holes in it if they played with only nine on the field. For as good a QB as Carson Palmer is, he can’t fix all the problems this team has. They just don’t seem like the team that shocked the NFL a couple years back.
The Browns did a great job to start fixing their offensive ineptitude from the past few years. Of course, Brady Quinn held out of camp like an idiot, and let’s face it – the Browns were building for the future. The future is not now. They have holes at running back, wide receiver, and just about every position on defense. They’ve got a QB locked up for awhile, and the laid the cornerstone for a very good offensive line in Joe Thomas. Now they need to work on the rest of it.
AFC East
New England: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (13-3)
Buffalo Bills: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
New York Jets: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
Miami Dolphins: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Last season, the Jets shocked just about everyone not wearing a green fire helmet when they managed to win 10 games with a new head coach, no defined running game, and a questionable situation with quarterback injuries. This year, they’re not sneaking up on anybody – adding Thomas Jones was a great move, and letting him split carries with Leon Washington should keep both of them fresh throughout the year. But the fact remains – Chad Pennington has a questionable injury history, and the NY Media seems to love pushing Kellen Clemens into the starter’s role. Not to mention that they’ll be playing a 2nd place schedule. They probably overachieved just a little last year, and should come back to Earth this season.
Buffalo is my surprise team this season – their defense has been pretty solid the past few seasons, and as much as people love to rip on him, JP Losman is quietly turning into a pretty good quarterback. They had to trade away Willis McGahee for future salary cap reasons, but grabbing Marshawn Lynch in the draft this year should ensure them a solid running game for the next few seasons. Or until Lynch starts complaining about his salary…
The Dolphins fixed their most pressing need by bringing in a proven veteran QB in Trent Green, and shipping out Daunte Culpepper. Problem is, they may have been counting on Ricky Williams’ return after his yearlong exile to Canada. Since there’s pretty much no chance he ever plays in the NFL again, they are relying on Ronnie Brown (and now Jesse Chatman?) and some type of renaissance from Chris Chambers & Marty Booker. At least the defense is still fearsome, but even they are getting older.
And finally, we come to my Patriots. (EDIT: The rest of this was rewritten after this weekend’s news that Rodney Harrison will be suspended four games and Richard Seymour has been placed on the PUP list until Week 6, and today’s cutting of Reche Caldwell. All of which blow big time.) They were the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl after completely rebuilding their offense, adding three wide receivers and a running back to a team that needed nothing more than to convert a short third down to advance to (and probably win) their fourth Super Bowl in six years. Ironic then, that the loss of two crucial members of their defense could be what costs them in the end. Some in the media had said The Patriots had a legitimate shot at a 16-0 season this year, if they could get past San Diego in Week 2, and the Colts just before the bye week in November. As it is, they shouldn’t have trouble scoring points. But for at least the first four to six weeks, they might not be able to stop any high octane offenses. Like San Diego. Or Cincinnati in Week 4. Or maybe even Dallas in Week 6. But once they’re healthy (if they’re all healthy at once), there might not be another loss on the schedule.
All the way through February.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, AFC, East, NFL, North, Preview, South
2007 NFL Preview - Part II
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go!
Today, the NFC South & East, and AFC West (I’m a writin’ fool!). Click here for Part I of the Preview – NFC West & North.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Carolina Panthers: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ’06 Record (4-12), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Atlanta Falcons: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (4-12)
Let’s be honest here guys – the Falcons and Michael Vick (and to a lesser extent, Joey Harrington) are the story of this division this season, if not the NFL itself. Everything they do will be chronicled – every loss will be met with “Wonder how it would have turned out with Vick on the field”, every win will bring about talk of a lost season. The thing is, if the team uses the whole Vick situation as motivation, they could really come together and maybe even make a run at the division.
For as great a story as the Saints were last season, they got a lot of bounces in their favor, not to mention at least two or three wins on emotion alone. Their defense played ridiculously far above their heads last season (in ’04 & ’05 they ranked 14th of 16 in the NFC in points allowed – in ’06: 3rd), but the offense is legit. I think they give back a game, maybe two, but still play well enough within the division to make the postseason.
Carolina is a complete enigma. Every season for the past three, I’ve put far too much stock in their defense, and given Jake Delhomme way too much credit. The problem is, their defensive stars can’t stay together on the field long enough to stop any of the league’s better offenses. And even though DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams are a solid backfield tandem (not to mention the best wide receiver in the NFL in Steve Smith), Delhomme isn’t consistent enough to give them a QB threat. And honestly, nobody’s screaming for David Carr to get a start anytime soon…
Finally, Tampa Bay. The fact that their QB options this season consist of a 37 year old playing for his fifth team in as many years, and a 32-year old who retired rather than have to play for the team tells you everything you need to know about the Bucs right now. Their defense really dropped off last year, which was probably more a product of their offensive ineptitude being unable to give the defense a breather on the sidelines between possessions. They’re not scaring anyone this year, though Cadillac Williams might return to his early ’05 form…
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Washington Redskins: ’06 Record (5-11), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
New York Giants: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
People seem to forget that the Eagles managed to go 10-6 and win a playoff game without their franchise QB under center after Week 10. They also managed to go 5-2 to wrap up the season. With Donovan McNabb back (and by all accounts, healthy) there’s no reason to think they can’t at least duplicate those 10 wins in 2007. The defense is still playing at a high level, even with the front office’s decision to cut Jeremiah Trotter last week. And Brian Westbrook continues to produce just about every time he touches the ball. If they can avoid major injuries, they should be a serious threat to the Bears’ NFC supremacy.
The Redskins could be the “surprise” team of ’08 (they’re 20/1 to win the NFC at Bodog.com right now, and 40/1 to win it all). They lost Clinton Portis for most of last season, and Jason Campbell didn’t get a start until Week 11 (they went 5-2 with him under center in the final seven games). Their defense can still give people problems – Sean Taylor is one of the most underrated safeties in the NFL – and in a weak conference, a jump to 9-7 might be enough to get them into the postseason.
I’m not a big fan of the Cowboys’ chances this season. Wade Phillips’ “Let ‘em play” style just seems like it’s going to backfire by about Week 9 or so. I just foresee Terrell Owens finally snapping with the lack of discipline, and I have no idea just how far he’s going to go. There’s probably a 5% chance that he commits homicide on the sidelines this year after Romo misses him on a Go route. If they can hold it together though, Dallas’ defense is still one of the better ones in the league. I just don’t know how much I trust Tony Romo and the Barber/Jones running back combo platter.
And finally, the Giants. I’m trying my hardest not to laugh while writing this part of the preview. I have absolutely zero hope for the Giants to be contenders this season – their offense wasn’t that good last season, and they lost their #1 running back. Their defense wasn’t that good last season, and it got worse this year losing Michael Strahan, Lavar Arrington, and roughly 2/3 of their starting defensive backfield in one preseason game already. Needless to say, they’re staring a top-10 draft pick straight in the face.
AFC West
San Diego: ’06 Record (14-2), ’07 Prediction (12-4)
Denver Broncos: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
Kansas City: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Oakland Raiders: ’06 Record (2-14), ’07 Prediction (4-12)
The Chargers were the class of the NFL during the ’06 regular season, but completely imploded in their first round playoff game. I remember that game well, mostly because my fingers nearly imploded while live blogging the game from a hotel in Orlando, Florida (here’s Part I, here’s Part II. And just for the hell of it, the earlier live blog of the NFC playoff games). As for this season, the downgrade from an offensive minded coach who turtles in the playoffs to a turtle minded coach who gets defensive in the playoffs (wow my head hurts) is probably going to cost them a game or two. Not to mention that LaDanian Tomlinson probably won them at least one game by himself last year – there is no way in hell he repeats the numbers he put up in ’06.
Denver kind of falls into the second spot in this division by default. They have a promising quarterback who, barring injuries, will get a full season to prove why the Broncos traded up to draft him a couple seasons ago. And, as is par for the course, the Broncos have a solid multi-headed monster in the backfield, starting with Travis Henry and Mike Bell, and the receiving corps is still solid all around. Not to mention they probably have the best defensive backfield in the league with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly. It probably isn’t enough to overtake the Chargers, but it should be enough to get them into the playoffs.
The Chiefs aren’t nearly the team they were last season, and last season they barely limped into the playoffs anyway before getting smoked by the Colts in the first round. While all the talk is about Larry Johnson’s workload, the focus should be on a depleted offensive line guarding Damon Huard, the newly minted starting quarterback. Not to mention the Chiefs haven’t fielded anything better than a middle of the road defense in a few years (literally – they were 9th of 16 AFC teams in three major defensive categories last season; yards per game, rushing yards per game and points allowed, and 11th in passing yards allowed). They’re a middle of the pack team that caught a good run and a good schedule in ’06 – not this year.
And then, there are the Raiders. A team so inept that their #1 pick – the #1 overall draft pick last year – would rather sit a season by making outrageous contract demands than play for them. A team that looks to be relying on a “mobile” QB coming off of two major knee surgeries in the same season, on the same knee. A team whose “Just Win, Baby!” mantra gets more and more laughable every year. But hey – at least the statistics said they had an above average defense last season. Of course, that’s probably because their offense averaged a ridiculous 10.5 points per game in ’06 – once teams scored twice, they eased off the accelerator knowing they probably didn’t need to do much more for the W. I give them a couple more wins this season, though it’s more out of pity than anything else.
Labels: 2007, AFC, East, NFC, NFL, Preview, South, West
