2008 NFL Preview - Post 2
Today, it’s part two in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. It’s a beautiful day – sun’s shining, birds are chirping, and Season 4 of The Wire is in the DVD Player ready to go.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s continue – today, the NFC North & East
NFC NORTH
2007 Standings
Green Bay (13-3)
Minnesota (8-8)
Detroit (7-9)
Chicago (7-9)
One name dominates this division in 2008. And since he’s no longer in the NFC North, it’s not worth even bringing him up again until I have to. Which should be right about…
Brett Favre. There. I said it. He’s gone, and Green Bay fans (not to mention the team) will have to deal with that reality. The Packers can go one of two ways this season, they can either rally behind Aaron Rodgers and try to repeat last year’s success, or they can pack it in and use any number of excuses up to and including the loss of an icon, the new and more difficult first place schedule, etc etc etc. Look – Aaron Rodgers was a very highly touted first round quarterback a couple years ago. Brett Favre had a career year in 2007, but he was not the whole team. A serviceable QB should be able to take what is essentially the same team and lead them to about 10 or 11 wins. In the NFC North, that should be good enough for a Wild Card berth, at the very least. Prediction: 11-5
Detroit is still in a sorry state. They had another below average draft, and added absolutely nothing through free agency. But look at the list of free agents they had come off the books after the 2007 season. They shed twenty-four contracts! That’s half a team! How did they not improve through free agency? More importantly, how is Matt Millen still employed? Has anybody even seen William Clay Ford family alive in the past five years? I know it’s an old line to fall back on, but seriously, how does this guy keep his job every year? I suppose maybe Ford is falling back to the old-time sports administration, allowing a GM ten to fifteen years to fix the problems of the team. I suppose loyalty is nice, but it just doesn’t work in today’s sports world. Prediction: 5-11
The Bears had two major weaknesses this offseason – offense and defense. And that’s being generous. Somehow, they almost managed a .500 season with an aging defense and the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. They addressed the need at runningback by cutting ties with Cedric Benson and adding Matt Forte through the draft. Forte has had a pretty good preseason, but he can’t carry the offense by himself. Since the Bears are pretty much flipping a coin between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton from now through the beginning of the season, they are going to need to rely on their defense – yet again – to keep the team in games. They only signed two free agents – Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd – and kept Lance Briggs in Chicago for a handful more years, but they had a defense heavy draft. If any of those players can step up quickly, the Bears might be able to return to the playoffs in a weak NFC. But more than likely, they’ll be stuck at the bottom of the North barrel again. Prediction: 4-12
Finally, Minnesota. They’ve been the trendy pick to win the NFC before, and this year is no different. But until I see something, anything, to make me believe that Tarvaris Jackson can be a competent NFL quarterback, I won’t believe they’re much better than a mediocre team. Adrian Peterson was a revelation at runningback last year until a knee injury derailed his season. But can he repeat the same numbers this year? The Vikings biggest strength is their defense. They’ve turned into the 2005 Bears and the 2000 Ravens – Quarterback questions, an above average runningback, and a dominant defense. They could be the Super Bowl Champs. They could be 8-8 again. I’m leaning towards a Wild Card berth and just above mediocre. Prediction: 9-7
NFC East
2007 Standings
Dallas (13-3)
NY Giants (10-6)
Washington (9-7)
Philadelphia (8-8)
Listen, I know the Giants won the Super Bowl. I’ve come to terms with it. I’m not happy about it, but I’ve learned to deal with it. They went on a magical run for a month last winter, they caught every break, they made every big play, and they won it all. And after saying all that… I still don’t think they have the horses to win this division. Not that they’ll need to – I think they proved that back in February. Eli Manning finally matured into the quarterback the Giants thought they were getting four years ago. Brandon Jacobs proved that you don’t need lightning for thunder to be effective (though Ahmad Bradshaw was a nice surprise). And the defensive line was dominant for most of the year. With only two major subtractions from the team (Jeremy Shockey traded to New Orleans and Michael Strahan retired), the Giants should be primed to at least return to the playoffs, if not make another run deep into the postseason. Prediction: 10-6 (I know… it’s boring but it feels about right)
Dallas is still the top dog in this division. They’ve got the offense, they’ve got the defense. They’ve got talent all over the field, and they’ve got to be pissed about how their year ended in 2007. They’ve got absolutely no reason to lose this division, or to not advance to at least the NFC Title Game. They lost only Julius Jones and Jacques Reeves, and added Zach Thomas in free agency. Not to mention adding Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins early in the draft. They should be able to put up at least 12 wins, probably more. They have five tough games total through the season, and no tougher road trips than St. Louis following Arizona in mid-October. This looks like a good year for them. Prediction: 14-2
Washington made a nice run last year, even managing a playoff berth (though I have no idea how). But without a first round draft pick, and virtually no free agent imports or losses, the only real change for the ‘Skins was bringing in Jason Taylor who may or may not still have enough in the tank to rejuvenate their defensive line. This year, that probably won’t be enough. Jason Campbell is another quarterback on a short leash trying to prove that he still belongs in this league. They don’t have the guns to stick around all year long, on offense or defense. Prediction: 7-9
Philadelphia is kind of getting caught on the short end of the stick here. They’ve still got a top 15 QB in Donovan McNabb. Brian Westbrook is one of the all around best runningbacks in the NFL. They’ve got the defense to contend every year. But there’s something holding them back. Aside from injuries, I can’t tell you what it is. I have absolutely no idea how they lost 8 games while only allowing a total of 300 points all year. I think they were nothing more than a victim of circumstance in their division; 8-8 in a division with three playoff teams is just plain unlucky. This year, they might sneak in a Wild Card berth, but most likely they’ll be on the outside looking in again. Prediction: 9-7
Labels: 2008, East, NFC, NFL, North, Preview
2008 NFL Preview - Post 1
Beginning today, it’s a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s get going – today, the NFC West & South
NFC WEST
2007 Standings
Seattle (10-6)
Arizona (8-8)
San Francisco (5-11)
St. Louis (3-13)
I should have known better last year when I predicted all four teams to finish within three games of one another. Although at this point, it’s pretty much a guarantee to write in Seattle for 10 wins and the weakest division title of the eight.
Every year, Arizona makes a move or two to make me think maybe they’ve got it figured out this year. Maybe this is the year they put together a winning season, and maybe they actually make the playoffs. Their best offseason move was bringing in Clark Haggans from Pittsburgh, and that wasn’t all that great a move. I’m not falling for it this year. I had them at 7-9 last year and they made it to .500. This year, I’m not giving them even that much credit. Maybe they’ll win the damned Super Bowl. At least I could make some money off the 50-1 odds they’re currently getting. Prediction: 6-10
San Francisco needs to put something together, or else they need to start thinking about blowing it all up. Again. They invested heavily in players like Nate Clements and Alex Smith, and haven’t seen any type of return on their money. Since drafting Smith Number 1 overall, they’ve gone 16-32 in three years. In fairness to Smith, he’s only started 32 of the 48 games, but his stats haven’t been all that great either – 19 career TD’s to 31 INT’s, and a total of just under 4800 yards passing. To me, those aren’t franchise QB numbers. Give him one more year, then start looking at the next option. Prediction: 4-12
St. Louis made a major upgrade on their defensive line when they grabbed Chris Long to anchor their DE position for years to come. But after their first round pick, you’d be hard pressed to find another player worth mentioning. I mean, seriously – read some of the player evaluations from ESPN’s post-draft “grades” page. Throw in the fact that their best offensive player, Stephen Jackson, is currently in the middle of a hold-out for a long term contract, and St. Louis might be looking at another season of wondering how high they’ll be drafting in April. Prediction: 2-14
Like I said before – Seattle is just about a guarantee for 10 wins and a de facto division title. They released former league MVP Shaun Alexander (and it’s fairly shocking that absolutely no one has shown any interest in him… there’s a lot more to that story and I’m certain it will come out eventually). They imported TJ Duckett and Julius Jones to take over the rushing load. Of course, Matt Hasslebeck still has absolutely no one reliable to throw the ball to. Let’s just say 10 wins to be safe. Prediction: 10-6
NFC SOUTH
2007 Standings:
Tampa Bay (9-7)
Carolina (7-9)
New Orleans (7-9)
Atlanta (4-12)
Welcome to the worst division in football. This was the only division to have a team on top with fewer than 10 wins last season. Don’t expect much more out of them this year.
Atlanta has had some time to recover from the Michael Vick fiasco. They’ve got a new face of the franchise in Matt Ryan. They let go of TJ Duckett and Warrick Dunn, and replaced them with the dynamic Michael Turner. They imported Jason Elam – on of the most clutch kickers in NFL history, something that can’t be undervalued – stealing him away from the Broncos. Their only big losses were Alge Crumpler and Demorrio Williams. But they still don’t have the defense to shut down the high powered offenses in the NFL – the Saints will probably give them trouble both times this year. They allowed almost 160 more point than they scored last year – the gap should close a little this year, but not enough to matter. Prediction: 3-13
Tampa Bay missed out on the Brett Favre sweepstakes, meaning they’re stuck with the same problem they’ve had since… well since forever really – they need a quarterback. They’ve continued to get older without addressing their biggest needs, and this could be the year it comes back to haunt them. The rest of the division will catch up to them eventually. Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway and Earnest Graham will only carry this team so far, and this year it might not even be to the playoffs. Prediction: 9-7
New Orleans got stuck with an above average team and a first place schedule last year – they weren’t ready for what a successful run in 2006 brought them. This year, they’ve got the same above average team plus the addition of Jeremy Shockey and the addition of Sedrick Ellis in the draft helps shore up a weak defensive line. Look out for rookie Adrian Arrington as well as a Troy Brown, over the middle possession receiver type. (though it might just be my Michigan bias). Prediction: 11-5
Carolina made a lot of moves this offseason, importing plenty of familiar faces to try and rebuild a team that scored only 267 points in 16 games last season. Unfortunately, they did nothing to address their biggest need – bringing in another quarterback to legitimately challenge Jake Delhomme for the starting job. They had a fantastic top of the draft getting Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah, and late round selection Nick Hayden could grow into quite a playmaker on the defensive line. But until they start averaging more than 17 points a game, they’re not going to be able to compete with the rest of the NFC. Prediction: 9-7
Labels: 2008, NFC, NFL, Preview, South, West
2007 NFL Preview - Part II
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go!
Today, the NFC South & East, and AFC West (I’m a writin’ fool!). Click here for Part I of the Preview – NFC West & North.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Carolina Panthers: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ’06 Record (4-12), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Atlanta Falcons: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (4-12)
Let’s be honest here guys – the Falcons and Michael Vick (and to a lesser extent, Joey Harrington) are the story of this division this season, if not the NFL itself. Everything they do will be chronicled – every loss will be met with “Wonder how it would have turned out with Vick on the field”, every win will bring about talk of a lost season. The thing is, if the team uses the whole Vick situation as motivation, they could really come together and maybe even make a run at the division.
For as great a story as the Saints were last season, they got a lot of bounces in their favor, not to mention at least two or three wins on emotion alone. Their defense played ridiculously far above their heads last season (in ’04 & ’05 they ranked 14th of 16 in the NFC in points allowed – in ’06: 3rd), but the offense is legit. I think they give back a game, maybe two, but still play well enough within the division to make the postseason.
Carolina is a complete enigma. Every season for the past three, I’ve put far too much stock in their defense, and given Jake Delhomme way too much credit. The problem is, their defensive stars can’t stay together on the field long enough to stop any of the league’s better offenses. And even though DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams are a solid backfield tandem (not to mention the best wide receiver in the NFL in Steve Smith), Delhomme isn’t consistent enough to give them a QB threat. And honestly, nobody’s screaming for David Carr to get a start anytime soon…
Finally, Tampa Bay. The fact that their QB options this season consist of a 37 year old playing for his fifth team in as many years, and a 32-year old who retired rather than have to play for the team tells you everything you need to know about the Bucs right now. Their defense really dropped off last year, which was probably more a product of their offensive ineptitude being unable to give the defense a breather on the sidelines between possessions. They’re not scaring anyone this year, though Cadillac Williams might return to his early ’05 form…
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Washington Redskins: ’06 Record (5-11), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
New York Giants: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
People seem to forget that the Eagles managed to go 10-6 and win a playoff game without their franchise QB under center after Week 10. They also managed to go 5-2 to wrap up the season. With Donovan McNabb back (and by all accounts, healthy) there’s no reason to think they can’t at least duplicate those 10 wins in 2007. The defense is still playing at a high level, even with the front office’s decision to cut Jeremiah Trotter last week. And Brian Westbrook continues to produce just about every time he touches the ball. If they can avoid major injuries, they should be a serious threat to the Bears’ NFC supremacy.
The Redskins could be the “surprise” team of ’08 (they’re 20/1 to win the NFC at Bodog.com right now, and 40/1 to win it all). They lost Clinton Portis for most of last season, and Jason Campbell didn’t get a start until Week 11 (they went 5-2 with him under center in the final seven games). Their defense can still give people problems – Sean Taylor is one of the most underrated safeties in the NFL – and in a weak conference, a jump to 9-7 might be enough to get them into the postseason.
I’m not a big fan of the Cowboys’ chances this season. Wade Phillips’ “Let ‘em play” style just seems like it’s going to backfire by about Week 9 or so. I just foresee Terrell Owens finally snapping with the lack of discipline, and I have no idea just how far he’s going to go. There’s probably a 5% chance that he commits homicide on the sidelines this year after Romo misses him on a Go route. If they can hold it together though, Dallas’ defense is still one of the better ones in the league. I just don’t know how much I trust Tony Romo and the Barber/Jones running back combo platter.
And finally, the Giants. I’m trying my hardest not to laugh while writing this part of the preview. I have absolutely zero hope for the Giants to be contenders this season – their offense wasn’t that good last season, and they lost their #1 running back. Their defense wasn’t that good last season, and it got worse this year losing Michael Strahan, Lavar Arrington, and roughly 2/3 of their starting defensive backfield in one preseason game already. Needless to say, they’re staring a top-10 draft pick straight in the face.
AFC West
San Diego: ’06 Record (14-2), ’07 Prediction (12-4)
Denver Broncos: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
Kansas City: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Oakland Raiders: ’06 Record (2-14), ’07 Prediction (4-12)
The Chargers were the class of the NFL during the ’06 regular season, but completely imploded in their first round playoff game. I remember that game well, mostly because my fingers nearly imploded while live blogging the game from a hotel in Orlando, Florida (here’s Part I, here’s Part II. And just for the hell of it, the earlier live blog of the NFC playoff games). As for this season, the downgrade from an offensive minded coach who turtles in the playoffs to a turtle minded coach who gets defensive in the playoffs (wow my head hurts) is probably going to cost them a game or two. Not to mention that LaDanian Tomlinson probably won them at least one game by himself last year – there is no way in hell he repeats the numbers he put up in ’06.
Denver kind of falls into the second spot in this division by default. They have a promising quarterback who, barring injuries, will get a full season to prove why the Broncos traded up to draft him a couple seasons ago. And, as is par for the course, the Broncos have a solid multi-headed monster in the backfield, starting with Travis Henry and Mike Bell, and the receiving corps is still solid all around. Not to mention they probably have the best defensive backfield in the league with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly. It probably isn’t enough to overtake the Chargers, but it should be enough to get them into the playoffs.
The Chiefs aren’t nearly the team they were last season, and last season they barely limped into the playoffs anyway before getting smoked by the Colts in the first round. While all the talk is about Larry Johnson’s workload, the focus should be on a depleted offensive line guarding Damon Huard, the newly minted starting quarterback. Not to mention the Chiefs haven’t fielded anything better than a middle of the road defense in a few years (literally – they were 9th of 16 AFC teams in three major defensive categories last season; yards per game, rushing yards per game and points allowed, and 11th in passing yards allowed). They’re a middle of the pack team that caught a good run and a good schedule in ’06 – not this year.
And then, there are the Raiders. A team so inept that their #1 pick – the #1 overall draft pick last year – would rather sit a season by making outrageous contract demands than play for them. A team that looks to be relying on a “mobile” QB coming off of two major knee surgeries in the same season, on the same knee. A team whose “Just Win, Baby!” mantra gets more and more laughable every year. But hey – at least the statistics said they had an above average defense last season. Of course, that’s probably because their offense averaged a ridiculous 10.5 points per game in ’06 – once teams scored twice, they eased off the accelerator knowing they probably didn’t need to do much more for the W. I give them a couple more wins this season, though it’s more out of pity than anything else.
Labels: 2007, AFC, East, NFC, NFL, Preview, South, West
2007 NFL Preview - Part I
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go! Today, the NFC West & North.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
San Francisco 49ers: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
St. Louis Rams: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Arizona Cardinals: ’06 Record (5-11), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
For the third year in a row, the Seahawks look to be largely uncontested in their run to the division title. They’ve got a healthy Shaun Alexander and a (presumably) healthy Matt Hasselbeck on the offensive side of the ball. Their defense was very solid last season, rating in the top-10 in both yards and points per game, though their rushing defense (12th in the NFC at 126.8 ypg)
This year, everyone’s “sleeper” team seems to be the 49ers. I like them; I Think that another year of maturity for Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis can only help them. But their defense (no better than 10th in the conference in any major category) still leaves a lot to be desired. There’s a chance they could be the 2001 Rams – monster offense but no defense – but there’s a better chance that they’re on the outside looking in when the postseason starts.
Speaking of the Rams… This year’s version is very reminiscent of that 2001 team, except these guys have very little chance at reaching the playoffs – let alone the Super Bowl. Their offense is ridiculously strong (how many people realized that Steven Jackson had more yards from scrimmage than LaDanian Tomlinson last season?), with Marc Bulger inking a new contract this season and #1 target Torry Holt healthy as ever. But their defense hasn’t shown any glimpses of keeping other teams off the scoreboard or slowing down an opposing running game, although their pass defense did rank 3rd in the NFC.
And finally, the class of the NFL, the team that nobody wants to play, yes, your Arizona Cardinals. There might not be a franchise in professional sports with a sorrier history than the Cardinals, and yet every season the pundits find something about this team that makes everybody think “this is the year!” Let me tell you something – this is not the year. They’ve rebuilt their offense very nicely, getting Matt Leinart through the draft last season and adding Edgerrin James through free agency what was already the best young receiving corps in the league. But that’s it. There’s no defense. There’s no offensive line. They’ve got four or five players that can make a difference on any given play, and they’re all on one side of the ball. That’s not a formula for success. That’s a formula for another last place finish and high draft pick in April.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: ’06 Record (13-3), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Green Bay Packers: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Detroit Lions: ’06 Record (3-13), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
Much like their counterparts atop the NFC West, the Bears have virtually no competition for this division title. Again. In fact, their main challenge throughout the regular season should be to stay atop the overall NFC standings (or close to it) to give themselves the best shot at a first round bye. Well, the main challenge will probably be trying to remain calm every time Rex Grossman takes a five step drop. But with a healthy (if slightly less dominating) defense, and even a mediocre offense, they should be able to lock up the NFC north by about Week 12.
The Bears’ main competition, aside from themselves, looks to be the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota’s offense was, well, weak last season, not ranking in the top half of the conference in any major category, and averaging under 18 points a game. Tarvaris Jackson under center provides them with a good young QB, and a split backfield of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson behind what is shaping up to be the best offensive line in the league should give them plenty of upgraded pop from the offense. The defense was already one of the better, if underrated, units in the NFL last season (61ypg rushing allowed? Are you kidding? Too bad they allowed 238ypg passing…). All they need to do is match last season’s production, and the Vikings could be contending for a playoff berth.
Everyone seems high on the Packers this season, referencing the way they finished ’06 on a four-game winning streak as a sign of good things in ’07. They had a good defense, ranking in the upper half in all major categories except the one that matters – points allowed. Any offense with Brett Favre will always have a chance to contend, not to mention be near the top of the league in most passing categories. But the division is tough, and finishing second last season only ensured them a tougher out-of-division schedule this season. I don’t see them breaking .500 this year.
And then, there are the Lions. I might have to flip-flop on the earlier statement that the Cardinals are the sorriest franchise in all of professional sports – the Lions give them a run for that title just within the NFL. They’ve got tools on offense in Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Kevin Jones & Tatum Bell that most offensive coordinators would kill for. And yet somehow they manage to underachieve every single season. Every year I pencil them in for anywhere from 3-12 wins – this year’s no different. They could put it all together and roll the rest of the league. But more than likely, they’ll get slightly better (they can’t really get worse from a 3-13 season) and still leave Detroit fans feeling completely unfulfilled.
Labels: 2007, NFC, NFL, North, Preview, West
