Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Catching up...

Quick Thoughts while trying to catch up on everything I’ve

missed in the past nine days...

Geez, I really can pick the days to go on vacation, can’t I? Not like I’ve missed much in the past week and a half in the world of Boston sports (or even sports in general, for that matter).

I left for a business conference on Saturday morning. I had originally planned to bring my new laptop with me (which, in retrospect, I should have done) in order to stay in touch with the outside world and keep posting on here, but I changed my mind Friday night while packing. I suppose it all worked out in the end, since I wouldn’t have been able to being as many bags on the original flight, and would have been in serious trouble if I’d been forced to travel for ten days without clothes.

So I left on Saturday morning, Providence -> Chicago (O’Hare) -> San Diego for a three-day conference on the wonderful world of Medical Simulation. Pretty good conference, to be honest. Unfortunately, it required me to fly during the Patriots/Broncos tilt on Saturday night, meaning that I would be unable to watch a Patriots’ playoff game in it’s entirety for the first time since January 1999. Coincidentally, that was the last playoff game that the Patriots did not win (a 25-10 shellacking by the Jacksonville Jaguars). I did not like the similarities.

As I boarded in Chicago heading to San Diego, the first quarter was drawing to a close as the Broncos were driving into Patriots’ territory. Just before takeoff, the woman in front of me got a phone call to tell her that the Pats’ had just executed a great goal-line stand to keep the score at 0-0 (she was a big fan too). I was thrilled with the news, almost expecting to land four hours later and find that the Patriots had won by 10.

Oops.

Almost instantaneously after we touched down on the left coast and I turned on my cell phone, I got a stored text message.

“Be glad you missed that game. Worst Pats playoff game ever. Ugh.”

I was no longer dying from the anticipation of finding an airport bar for SportsCenter highlights.

After checking into the hotel (and having my “quotable” highlight of my entire week), I stopped in at the hotel bar and watched the debacle that had unfolded just hours earlier.

Did the Patriots play well enough to win the game? No way. Did they shoot themselves in the foot with stupid penalties and ridiculous turnovers? Yup. Did the refs job them over a couple of times with calls (or non-calls) that were absolute game changers? You betcha. Did I have any reason to pick the Broncos to upset the freight train that was barreling at them in the form of the Pittsburgh Steelers? No way (although I still did. Oops again.)

It seems weird watching football in the postseason without having the Pats involved. Almost seems meaningless to me. Although if you think there’s any chance I’m missing the Super Bowl, you’d be sorely mistaken. I think I’ll treat this Super Bowl in the same manner as Super Bowl XXXVII – Tampa Bay over Oakland. I’ll be drinking, heavily, and staring blankly at a football field littered with players I hardly know.

(This is probably a good time to admit that last Thursday morning, I picked the Broncos (-3) and the Seahawks (-4.5), using the lines at The Mirage. For the first time though, I actually was at The Mirage to see the lines in person. That was pretty cool. And it puts me at 7-3 thus far in the postseason. OK, back to the post…)

I’d love to comment on the demise of the Colts (honestly – who didn’t see that coming?), or the ascension of the Seahawks (absolutely DOMINANT on Sunday), or the complete collapse of the Bears (no reason to have lost with 21 points from the offense). But unfortunately, I watched about 3 quarters of their games combined, so I’m not really up to par.

As for baseball… I have no idea what to make of the whole “Theo’s Back!” situation. First of all – Theo never left. From all accounts, Theo Epstein was the architect of the Renteria and Beckett trades, working from the back room with Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington to get the deals done. He certainly had a hand in the current Coco Crisp debacle (more in a second), and yet the Red Sox see no reason to re-introduce Theo to the general public with a press conference.

As Dale Arnold so astutely put it this morning, “You don’t think they’re afraid of what might be asked at a press conference? C’mon – this organization holds a press conference to announce a new roll of toilet paper in the bathroom stall. They had a press conference to explain why they didn’t re-sign Johnny Damon”.

By not holding a press conference and instead choosing to announce Theo’s “return” in a printed statement, the Red Sox’ front office looks like they’re trying to duck the questions about Theo’s original departure. Which they are. But to hide behind a thin sheet of paper rather than come out, face the cameras and answer questions just seems like they’re afraid of what might be said.

No organization in baseball, with the possibly exceptions of the Yankees and Dodgers, is more media savvy. This ownership knows how to use the media to their advantage, rather than the previous administration (John Harrington and Dan Duquette), who treated media members like live grenades – better to keep a distance and handle them with kid gloves than take a chance of letting them get too close to you.

Now, coming back to the current deal with Cleveland… let me tell you something. I flew through Cleveland (among other places…) on my return from Vegas to Providence. I could not find a single Cleveland-ite (whatever…) who was not absolutely giddy about this deal, and that’s not a good sign.

Coco Crisp is a decent center fielder, and a pretty good top of the lineup guy. But he struggled in his last attempt at hitting leadoff, and he is compared to Johnny Damon as “not quite as good in the field with a slight upgrade in arm strength”. Personally, I believe that any fully functional human over the age of 8 is a slight upgrade in arm strength over Johnny Damon, so I’m not counting that as a positive. Downgrading the defense in center means more ground for Manny to cover (yikes!) as well as Trot Nixon, who can be penciled in for about 35 games on the DL every year at this point.

Not to mention that what the Sox are giving up (Andy Marte, Guillermo Mota and Kelly Shoppach) doesn’t quite match up with what they get in return (Crisp, David Riske and Josh Bard).

Look at it this way. The Sox are basically trading Edgar Renteria, $9M, Mota (the only insurance on Keith Foulke, and the only reason I eventually liked the Beckett trade) and Shoppach (no great loss) to get back a mediocre center fielder, a third-tier relief pitcher, and a journeyman backup catcher. They already signed a journeyman backup catcher in John Flaherty, they have plenty of lousy relievers (Julian Tavares and Rudy Seanez come to mind), and they need better than mediocre in center.

Don’t get me wrong – if they could get Crisp and not have to give up as much as they are, I’d be OK with it. But in three years, the Sox are going to be dying for a third baseman like Marte (maybe sooner, if Mike Lowell doesn’t return to form), and if Keith Foulke is the same player he was last season, would you trust Mike Timlin in the ninth inning of a close game with two men on base? At least Mota has experience as a successful closer. To me, Bard & Shoppach are a wash, so I could care less about them.

Sorry, you’re not convincing me that this is a good thing for Boston. Too many people in Cleveland are excited about it. Cleveland fans don’t get excited too often – they’ve learned not to get over-hyped, not with their sporting history. When that many fans with Chief Wahoo shirts, jackets, and hats start salivating over the thoughts of a trade, it’s a bad thing for whichever team happens to be involved.

I’d love to bring you in on my excursion to Las Vegas, but those psychological wounds are still far too fresh. Let’s leave it at this – I have never had a worse stretch of luck in my life. From gambling, to eating out, to the plane trip back, to the jackass at the long-term parking lot – everything I touched went to shit. Period.

As far as the gambling in Vegas… Combined, in seven days, I either put all of my money into a pot or called when someone else had all of his or her money in the pot exactly three times when I was not ahead in the hand. I won one of those three hands. Of the approximately 50 other times that I was in an “all-in” situation and started out ahead, four times I won the hand.

And that’s how my week went. People, it got so bad that I regressed all the way back to trying to play a system at a roulette table, and even willingly put money into a slot machine. I just couldn’t do anything right. I was the “bubble boy” – one spot short of cashing in a poker tournament – in six different tourneys. I only played in ten, and never cashed in one.

I give up – no Vegas for at least six months. I’m putting myself on Vegas probation.

Quote of the Week

Courtesy of my smart-ass attitude after flying for 13 hours last Saturday, coupled with the stuck up woman standing in line waiting for a bus at the airport…

Me: (speaking to an entire group) “Excuse me, is this the line for the Sheraton Shuttle?”

Woman: (apparently speaking for the group) “Look, it’s only right there (points to the top of the hotel, about 2 miles away). Why don’t you just walk?”

Me: (pretty pissed, and without missing a beat) “Ma’am, look at me. There are a lot of things I could do in life. But walking 2 miles to a hotel in a strange city that I’ve never been in, while carrying three suitcases and a poster case totaling about 115 pounds, after flying for 13 hours with two knees that are about to explode… no, that’s not something I plan on doing. Now, can anyone else tell me if this is the line for the Sheraton Shuttle?”

Random guy in the crowd: (giggling, trying to avoid the death stare from the woman) “Actually, it’s right there (points about ten feet to the right).”

Me: (with a gigantic grin on my face) “Thank you sir. That certainly seemed like a difficult answer.”

I’ll be back later this week or early next week with my breakdown of the hot stove season to date (what else am I going to talk about), as well as some winners and losers from baseball’s second season, before giving my Super Bowl pick.

Lata.

Thursday, January 12, 2006

Divisional Round Picks (Week 19)

Alright, enough griping. I’ve been running around at the normal 9-5 job (which is more like 7:30-4) getting everything ready so that it can actually function without me for a week, not to mention getting everything in order for the Left Coast trip next week.

Plus I’m sick. Plus I got slammed with a ton of extra work at the office this week. Plus I’ve been getting absolutely KILLED in online poker, to the point that I’ve uninstalled, reinstalled (stupid, I know), re-uninstalled, and re-reinstalled (even stupider) three different poker suites.

Alright. I’ve vented. Now let’s move on to the picks for the second round of the playoffs.

Lines from Sportsbook.com, accurate as of 6PM today:

SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over Redskins: I mean, did you see the Redskins’ offense last week? I know that unless it’s a Monday Night game against Philly, the Seahawks defense is pretty useless, but even they could handle a team that barely broke 100 total yards of offense. There’s a reason that Seattle is the #1 seed – they are pretty good. And I know there are plenty of contrarians out there who will use the “They’ve never won a playoff game under Mike Holmgren”, blah blah blah. There’s always a first time, and this game won’t be close after halftime… Pick: Seahawks 34, Redskins 16.

Patriots @ BRONCOS: Ya know what, let’s come back to this one…

Steelers (+9.5) over COLTS: Sure, the Colts are pretty tough to beat, period, let alone at home after a bye week. But the Steelers are the single most physical team left in the AFC, and if the Patriots have proven one thing in the past few years against the Colts, it’s that when you beat up the Colts, they fold. They always fold. Pound the receivers in the first quarter and they’ll have alligator arms by the second. Chase Peyton all over the field, and he’ll be throwing the ball away (or even better, directly to the cornerbacks) rather than take a hit.

I don’t think the Steelers have the guns to win this one outright unless they accomplish two things. First, they have to beat the hell out of everyone wearing a horseshoe on his helmet. Second, they have to control the ball and dominate on the ground. Sure the Colts only need a minute or two to author an end to end drive and put seven on the board, but if Pittsburgh can run effectively and own the clock, they can keep this game close.

If not, Indy by 17+… Pick: Colts 27, Steelers 23.

Panthers (+3) over BEARS: I am completely befuddled by the Panthers. I pick them in the preseason to be dominant; they come out flat. I pick them midseason to collapse, they make a run to the top of the division. I then say that they’ve got the inside track to the NFC South title, and they tank towards the end. Now they’ve spent the last two weeks absolutely dominating the Falcons (who completely quit about three weeks earlier) and the Giants, in the Meadowlands, in the cold, in a shutout, in the first round of the playoffs. If I pick them to win, they’ll lose by 13. If I pick them to cover, they’ll lose by 6. If I pick them to lose, they’ll destroy the Bears.

So here’s the thing. Sunday in Chicago, it’s supposed to be partly cloudy with a high in the 40’s. Not cold enough to really hurt Carolina, and not nasty enough to really help Chicago.

The quarterback match-up of Jake Delhomme and Rex Grossman looks like one of the most lopsided QB match-ups of at least the last five years. Even if you move to the “One solid hit and we’re looking at (blank) coming into the game”, I’d take Chris Weinke over Kyle Orton in a big-time playoff game.

The Panthers have an edge in receivers; the Bears have the better running game and overall defense.

When it comes down to it, this pick is nothing more than a hunch. In other words, don’t bet too heavily on my word alone. I’m certainly not. Pick: Panthers 24, Bears 13.

Patriots @ BRONCOS: This game scares the crap out of me. Not because I think the Patriots will lose, but because everyone in the world has picked the Patriots to at least cover, if not win outright (and some people are even picking the Pats in a rout).

Denver didn’t get to 13-3 by default. Yes, they played a creampuff schedule after the bye, with the only games against decent teams coming in a gift Thanksgiving Day win at Dallas, a loss @KC, and a win in the last week of the season at a San Diego team that had long since given up. So I’m not too sure how to rate them.

On the other side of the field, New England had the hardest 6-game stretch in NFL history to start the season, and came out of it 3-3. Going 7-2 down the stretch (I’m discounting that Miami game in Week 17, when they basically tanked the 2-pt conversion to avoid Pittsburgh in the first round), they only had to go through Indy, KC, and Tampa, with two of those games (Indy & @KC) resulting in pretty bad losses. Otherwise, they got the Dolphins, Bills & Jets twice each (teams that were (18-30 combined this season, with 9 of those wins coming from Miami), with New Orleans (3-13) mixed in to spice up the craptastic stew just a little bit.

So how do I figure out exactly how to pick this game?

Let’s break it down. The Patriots ended up with the #8 overall rushing defense (98.1 ypg). Denver was #2 (85.2). Denver had the second best rushing offense (158.7 ypg); New England was #24 (94.5). Obviously, Denver has the edge on the ground, but it looks like it’s going to be a high octane, passing fueled game.

So how about those passing stats? The Pats were the #2 passing offense (257.5 ypg – somehow behind only Arizona?!), while Denver was #18 (201.7). Both teams were horrific in pass defense, with Denver ranking 29th and New England 31st (allowing 227.7 & 231.4 yards per game, respectively).

Which brings me to the question – in a playoff game, in a tense atmosphere, where any mistake could cost you the game, which quarterback do you trust more: Jake Plummer (150 TDs, 148 INTs, Passer Rating of 75.1 career, with a 1-2 record in the playoffs) or Tom Brady (132 TDs, 66 INTs, Passer Rating of 88.5, and a 10-0 career playoff record).

I know everyone has been sleeping on the Broncos all season long. Just a couple weeks ago, I said that I would have rather had the Pats face the Colts than the Broncos in the second round of the playoffs.

But if you think I’m picking against a Head Coach and Quarterback that have never lost together in the playoffs, you’re insane.

Pick: Patriots (+3) over BRONCOS, 31-20.

I am actually planning to bring my laptop on my West Coast excursion, first to Sand Diego, then to Vegas. If I do, I’ll try to put up a post Thursday night. If not, then I guess you’ll just have to trust me when I post my picks after the games happen.

I’ll even make the picks in front of three other people on Thursday, so at least I’ll have witnesses…

Lata.

Thursday, January 05, 2006

Wild Card Round Picks

Wild Card Round Picks

For whatever reason, this past Monday I omitted a major section from my “Week 17 Recap”. The last note before I went into my Playoff Predictions was supposed to read as follows:

n Aw, what the hell. For the record (and since I have no gambling interest, so what do I care, right?), It’ll be Ohio State, Georgia (in what is essentially a home game – almost as bad as the Giants getting 9 games in Jersey this year), Penn State, and finally Texas over USC by a touchdown, 48-41. If there is any team that has a legitimate “disrespected” card to play, it’s these Texas Longhorns. It’s almost like the title game has already been played, with USC a decisive winner. Texas is going to come out angry and pound USC all night long. I’m sure there will be like 1200 yards of offense, and Reggie Bush will probably cement his #1 overall pick status, but it’s gonna be a hell of a game.

Now, I’m sure that none of you believe I could be that prescient with anything I could ever write, but I did type it, and for whatever reason it didn’t copy over into the actual post. Go ahead, call me a liar. Call me a revisionist historian. Whatever. I know what I wrote and what I knew ahead of time (although I missed the score, and Bush wasn’t exactly spectacular aside from his one TD run).

Alright, onto the picks for the first round of the playoffs. I’ll try to be a little more in-depth with the picks as the postseason progresses – with less games to write about, I should (theoretically) have more to say about each one.

And, as I’ve done for the past two years, I wipe the slate clean for the playoffs and start back at 0-0-0. I’ll add it all up after the Super Bowl, but the playoffs are the second season, and I treat them accordingly…

Lines accurate as of 9AM Thursday, from ESPN.com’s Daily Line via BetUS.com…

Redskins (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS: Look, nine times out of ten, I’ll take the home favorite in the playoffs. But like with anything in life, there are always exceptions to the rule:

Exception #1: If the home favorite starts a QB with less that 2 full years of experience.

Exception #2: If the home team is a warm-weather team and the road team is a cold-weather team, there is no “weather advantage”. (Reverse applies with cold weather home underdogs…)

Exception #3: If the two teams have already played each other during the season, usually take the team that lost the previous meeting in the most heartbreaking manner – they’ve got more to prove.

Now, the Bucs are starting Chris Simms – a serviceable, if nothing more than mediocre, NFL quarterback. They are a warm-weather team hosting a cold-weather team, meaning that anything short of a monsoon will most likely result in no advantage at all.

And does anyone remember the first meeting between these two teams in 2005? Remember the two-point conversion with triple-zeroes on the clock to win it for Tampa? I think Washington will be ready to prove themselves. Besides, they’re riding a long winning streak and had to play hard last week to get in the playoffs, so they’ve got the momentum heading into the first round. Pick: Washington, 34-20.

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Jaguars: Well, for starters, let’s apply the reverse to Exception #2 above. A warm weather team being forced to play in a cold weather stadium is automatically at a disadvantage. Now, let’s add in the fact that Jacksonville is welcoming back a quarterback that hasn’t played in over a month thanks to a broken ankle.

And finally, let’s all remember that possibly the greatest defensive-minded head coach to ever walk a sideline is wearing Patriots’ blue (or grey, if he’s got that ridiculous hoodie on again). If you think he won’t find a way to exploit Leftwich’s rustiness, or the lack of Fred Taylor and the youth of Greg Jones, you’re crazy. But feel free to keep betting on Jacksonville and dropping this line for me… Pick: New England, 27-13.

GIANTS (-2.5) over Carolina: Not that Carolina is all that warm this time of year, but it’s probably more of a “warm-weather” city than New York. For as much as I’d like to sit here and wax poetic about this pick, it’s actually pretty simple – The Giants (7-1, 8-1 if you count the “road” game against New Orleans) don’t lose at home. Carolina was actually a pretty good road team this year (6-2), but they just don’t seem like they’ve got enough to hang with these Giants. If New York can hold off the Panthers’ front four, they should win in a rout. Pick: New York, 31-16.

Pittsburgh (-3) over BENGALS: Has this ever happened before? A #6 seed is a road favorite in the playoffs? Not only that, but a road favorite to a division foe? I mean, they’ve already played twice this year, splitting those games. It’s not like they don’t know each other’s game pretty well.

It’s almost like Cincinnati has been playing possum for the last few weeks, trying to rest players while still appearing to care about the games. The Bengals locked up the AFC North a few weeks back – they were guaranteed a first-round home game, and maybe that’s all they wanted. But if they’re rested and ready to go, this is going to be a fun game to watch.

I’m taking Pittsburgh, but I’m not 100% percent confident in it. I think this game is going to go one of two ways. Either Pittsburgh wins a hard fought, 3-7 point game, or Cincinnati opens the offense up, spreads the field, and wins by 13+. Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-20.

Quote of the Week:

So, it’s been a pretty slow week for me, quotes-wise. There were quite a few memorable ones New Years’ Eve, but alas I didn’t bring a pad and pencil to the bar and by the next morning, I had long since forgotten them. I guess I’m just choosing one from the morning commute today, because it seemed funny at the time:

From The Dennis & Callahan Morning Show on WEEI:

Callahan: See, if I’m Mack Brown, I’m taking Vince Young on one of those “Katrina disaster tours” through New Orleans – I think that will guarantee that he stays in college one more year instead of letting the Saints draft him…

Cruel, yep. Uncalled-for, yep. Funny? Yep.

On a personal note, I’m going to be on a working vacation for awhile, traveling to San Diego for four days next weekend, then Vegas for five more days on the way home. So unfortunately, I probably won’t be able to make my picks for the Conference Championship round of the playoffs (I don’t plan on bringing a laptop for this Vegas excursion, but we’ll see). So in next week’s picks, I’ll predict lines based on the four possibilities, and make pseudo-picks based on the pseudo-lines.

What the hell – not like I’m betting on the playoffs anyway.

Lata.

Monday, January 02, 2006

Week 17 Recap

Week 17 Recap

n I don’t think I could possibly feel worse about a winning (9-7) week picking football games. Sure, I finished the season with a respectable 135-112-9 record, but this was just a bad week. Let’s recap, shall we?

o Personally, I’d like to take this opportunity to thank Lovie Smith for completely screwing me and thousands of other gamblers with his late announcement of Kyle Orton as starting QB. I fully expected Orton to be in the game at some point, just not for all four quarters. My “break even” bets for the week both involved Chicago covering the (+5.5) line. Naturally, Chicago was the only pick I had wrong in both bets.

o Also, could I suggest that someone really needed to alert Herm Edwards that he could have had the third pick in the draft by losing yesterday. Seriously, why were the Jets even trying to compete? Laurence Mulroney would have been a solid running-back to replace Curtis Martin. Sure, he might still be available at the #5 slot, but I’d feel a whole lot better with a guaranteed shot at getting him rather than only a nice pick to trade with.

o As for the Ravens… well, it’s nice to see that the first time I decide to put money on Kyle Boller’s shoulders, he completely blows up. I Think I’m just going to set up a “No Kyle’s allowed” rule when it comes to making all bets.

o And finally… I’m just happy to finally have the answer to “who backs up Matt Hasslebeck”. The answer? Seneca Wallace. Wish I’d known that sooner…

n So Dom Capers, Mike Martz, Mike Sherman, Mike Tice, and Jim Haslett are all out, with Dick Vermeil and possibly Bill Parcells retiring. Quite a first day of the off-season in the NFL…

n Personally, I think only Tice & Haslett will have trouble finding jobs on an NFL sideline immediately. Tice will probably end up in the studio for a year or so, while Haslett has a pretty sweet buyout clause in his contract (1/2 of his $3.3M yearly salary if he doesn’t get another coaching job), so I’d be surprised if he didn’t take a couple years off to recover from this disaster of a run in New Orleans. Capers will probably go back to being an assistant for while, while Martz & Sherman will most likely end up as head coaches almost immediately.

n As for the draft… If Houston does anything with this #1 pick other than trade it away, GM Charlie Casserly should be fired on the spot. Houston doesn’t need a running back. They don’t (really) need a quarter back. What they do need is help at just about every other position on the field. Sure, Reggie Bush would be a big draw, and will probably (though not guaranteed) be a major NFL star for the next 8-10 years. But the price for a #1 overall pick is step, not only in dollars and salary cap numbers, but in the fact that you can only improve one spot on your roster. The best thing that Houston could do with this pick would be to ship it to the Jets for their first and fourth rounder, and maybe John Abraham before he walks. Houston has the cap space to pay Abraham (and vastly improve their defensive line), plus the additional picks would still yield plenty of quality to fill in other holes.

Alright, you’ve asked for it, so here are Big D’s official playoff predictions, as well as my pre-season predictions so that we can all have a good hearty laugh…

AFC

Preseason Picks

2005 Playoff Standings

New England

Indianapolis

Baltimore

Denver

San Diego

Cincinnati

Indianapolis

New England

Pittsburgh

Jacksonville

Jacksonville

Pittsburgh

Hey, maybe this predicting stuff isn’t so hard after all… I’ll take four out of six, with two even in the right places… I’m not making any points-based picks until the lines settle down on Thursday, but as for straight wins… here’s how I see it shaking out:

Round 1: New England over Jacksonville, Pittsburgh over Cincy

Cincy is in full “just happy to be here mode”. Jacksonville looks like they’ll be stuck with either a young, unproven QB, or one coming off of a serious ankle injury. Not a good time to be heading to Foxboro…

Round 2: Denver over Pittsburgh, New England over Indy

Denver/Pittsburgh will be one hell of a tough game. And I’ve learned my lesson about never picking against Belichick and Brady in the playoffs. They’re 9-0 together for a reason.

Round 3: New England over Denver

See above…

NFC

Preseason Picks

2005 Playoff Standings

Carolina

Seattle

Minnesota

Chicago

Philadelphia

Tampa Bay

St. Louis

New York Giants

Atlanta

Carolina

Dallas

Washington

It really says something for the wonderful world of parity in the NFL (or maybe for the low level of competition in the NFC) that 5 of the 6 teams in the conference playoffs are new from last year, with only Seattle returning to defend their claim from last year’s playoffs. The AFC returns 4 teams, with the two newcomers both falling just short of a wild-card berth last season. I guess the NFC really does just suck after all…

Round 1: Washington over Tampa Bay, New York over Carolina

Sorry, I just don’t trust essentially a rookie QB in the playoffs. And the Giants don’t lose at home.

Round 2: Seattle over Washington, Chicago over New York

Nice run for Joe Gibbs. Not getting past Seattle though… And New York just doesn’t win on the road. Which begs the question – just how important was that 9th home game this year?

Round 3: Seattle over Chicago

If Chicago can somehow luck out and get anyone other than the Seahawks, and therefore get a home game for the NFC title, they’ll be Super Bowl bound. Otherwise, Lovie Smith will be coaching in the Pro Bowl.

Lata.