The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Week 12 Picks – Continued...

Week 12 Picks – Continued...

A quick update on my post regarding the Red Sox & Marlins’ trade for Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and Hanley Ramirez. For starters, I am amazed at how much grief I got for taking an opposing stance to the popular “Wow! What a deal!” that has been coming from every corner of the local sports media.

Now, I hear that the deal was modified late yesterday to include Florida relieve Guillermo Mota for a fourth Boston prospect. This latest development is starting to sway my mindset a little. Mota was a dominant reliever only two years ago – I really like that pickup. Plus, he is very valuable insurance for Keith Foulke as a possible replacement at closer if Foulke implodes again.

That’s it. I’m impressed with the names being moved this off-season via trades (Beckett, Delgado, Thome, so far). Maybe I’ll touch on that sometime next week...

What an interesting Thanksgiving Day. Slept till almost noon, woke up and quickly wrote my picks for the Thursday games (2 for 2, I might add). Went to the family’s house for Thanksgiving dinner at 1PM (I know, awful early), then basically crashed until 7 or 8PM.

Finally made it home, played poker until 4AM, then I decided to go to Wal-Mart at 5AM for their “Black Friday” sale. When I got there at 4:30, there were already about 1000 people in line waiting for the doors to open. Amazing. I went solely to buy milk and a few pairs of socks. Not exactly breaking the bank on my holiday shopping...

I did look into buying a new laptop, or maybe a new TV, but since the people who get suckered in to working at Wal-Mart at 5AM on Black Friday have a combined IQ of about 12, I was given bad information and missed out on my shot. No great loss – I really can’t afford to spend that type of cash anyway.

I think what I’m trying to say, through all this babbling, is that I hope you had a nice holiday too.

OK, let’s get to the rest of the picks for Week 12...

CHIEFS (-3) over Patriots: Something tells me that in the meetings this week, the game plan for New England sounded something like this: “Don’t get hurt. Don’t get hurt. Don’t get hurt. Don’t get hurt...” They’ve all but got the AFC East locked up – why risk it. Just play out the string, get healthy, and win the 4 divisional games they have left. Not that the Patriots could ever sneak up on anybody anymore, but I’ve got to think that there’s at least one or two AFC playoff teams that might not take them seriously in January (Cincinnati, anybody?)

49ers (+9) over TITANS: I’ll feel better when I tease this up to +16...

VIKINGS (-4) over Browns: How weird is it to see Minnesota favored against anyone after the start they had? Even stranger, they’ve got a legit shot at finishing 9-7 or maybe even 10-6 and making the playoffs with their last five games @Det, STL, PIT, @Bal, and CHI... much like I predicted three weeks ago.

Bears (+3) over BUCS: Man, no one is giving the Bears any respect. In a battle of young, unproven QB’s, I’ll take the one with the dominating defense behind him. Even if he is on the road...

Chargers (-3) over REDSKINS: Looks like defenses have finally figured out how to slow down the Brunell to Moss combination... Defensive Coordinators are still working on a plan for LaDanian Tomlinson (although Philly provided a model.) Antonio Gates’ availability will be huge in this one...

TEXANS (+3.5) over Rams: Sorry, it’s Jamie Martin on the road. I don’t care how bad Houston is, they can stop Jamie Martin on the road. And the Texans’ offense might even show flashes of being competent against a sorry Rams’ defense. My guess? David Carr throws for 240, 2TD’s and an INT. Dominick Davis runs for about 90 and a TD, and the Texans win by 7 or more...

Panthers (-3.5) over BILLS: In a cold, defensive struggle, always take the team with the top-5 defense instead of the team that allows 85 rushing yards per game rather than the one that allows 150.

BENGALS (-9) over Ravens: The Bengals have yet to win a game against a tough, hard hitting, defensively superior team. I think this is the first. And only because A) Cincinnati is pissed about that Indy loss, and B) Baltimore’s offense really sucks.

Dolphins (+7) over RAIDERS: Pending the QB announcement. If it’s Gus Frerotte, this is a 3 point game. If it’s Sage Rosenfels, I’m pulling the line myself...

Jaguars (-3.5) over CARDINALS: Let’s just say that, this week, Warner and the Cardinals’ defense won’t prove too tough for the Jaguars...

SEAHAWKS (-4.5) over Giants: I think these are the two best teams in the NFC, hands down. I’m looking forward to watching this one, provided FOX Boston pulls their head out of their ass and doesn’t show me Texans/Rams instead... P.S. I’d be comfortable giving 3/2 right now that this is the NFC Title Game matchup too, and in Seattle...

Packers (+4.5) over EAGLES: Brett Favre always seems to respond big when he’s called into question. Well all week, the talk surrounding the Pack has been “Should Favre step down for the rest of the year and let the kid take some snaps”. Against this Philly team, don’t you think it’s possible he gets pissed and goes off for like 380 and 4TDs?

JETS (Pk) over Saints: Who the hell scheduled this game as a Sunday Nighter for ESPN? Did anyone think that either of these teams would be in the playoff picture by Week 12? Seriously? Can’t we sign a petition and get Seahawks/Giants moved into this time slot?

COLTS (-9) over Steelers: At least the schedule makers got this one right. The second best game of the week gets the best time slot to be showcased. By the way – I’m not picking against the 2005 Colts again until they either lose or they’ve clinched everything possible and decide to rest players.

RECAP: CHIEFS / 49ers / VIKINGS / Bears / Chargers / TEXANS / Panthers / BENGALS / Dolphins / Jaguars / SEAHAWKS / Packers / JETS / COLTS

Best lines to tease (+6):

49ers (+9 to +16)

Bears (+3 to +9)

TEXANS (+3.5 to +9.5)

Dolphins (+7 to +13)

Packers (+4.5 to +10.5)

JETS (Pk to +6)

COLTS (-9 to -3)

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 3:28 PM