The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Divisional Round Picks (Week 19)

Alright, enough griping. I’ve been running around at the normal 9-5 job (which is more like 7:30-4) getting everything ready so that it can actually function without me for a week, not to mention getting everything in order for the Left Coast trip next week.

Plus I’m sick. Plus I got slammed with a ton of extra work at the office this week. Plus I’ve been getting absolutely KILLED in online poker, to the point that I’ve uninstalled, reinstalled (stupid, I know), re-uninstalled, and re-reinstalled (even stupider) three different poker suites.

Alright. I’ve vented. Now let’s move on to the picks for the second round of the playoffs.

Lines from Sportsbook.com, accurate as of 6PM today:

SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over Redskins: I mean, did you see the Redskins’ offense last week? I know that unless it’s a Monday Night game against Philly, the Seahawks defense is pretty useless, but even they could handle a team that barely broke 100 total yards of offense. There’s a reason that Seattle is the #1 seed – they are pretty good. And I know there are plenty of contrarians out there who will use the “They’ve never won a playoff game under Mike Holmgren”, blah blah blah. There’s always a first time, and this game won’t be close after halftime… Pick: Seahawks 34, Redskins 16.

Patriots @ BRONCOS: Ya know what, let’s come back to this one…

Steelers (+9.5) over COLTS: Sure, the Colts are pretty tough to beat, period, let alone at home after a bye week. But the Steelers are the single most physical team left in the AFC, and if the Patriots have proven one thing in the past few years against the Colts, it’s that when you beat up the Colts, they fold. They always fold. Pound the receivers in the first quarter and they’ll have alligator arms by the second. Chase Peyton all over the field, and he’ll be throwing the ball away (or even better, directly to the cornerbacks) rather than take a hit.

I don’t think the Steelers have the guns to win this one outright unless they accomplish two things. First, they have to beat the hell out of everyone wearing a horseshoe on his helmet. Second, they have to control the ball and dominate on the ground. Sure the Colts only need a minute or two to author an end to end drive and put seven on the board, but if Pittsburgh can run effectively and own the clock, they can keep this game close.

If not, Indy by 17+… Pick: Colts 27, Steelers 23.

Panthers (+3) over BEARS: I am completely befuddled by the Panthers. I pick them in the preseason to be dominant; they come out flat. I pick them midseason to collapse, they make a run to the top of the division. I then say that they’ve got the inside track to the NFC South title, and they tank towards the end. Now they’ve spent the last two weeks absolutely dominating the Falcons (who completely quit about three weeks earlier) and the Giants, in the Meadowlands, in the cold, in a shutout, in the first round of the playoffs. If I pick them to win, they’ll lose by 13. If I pick them to cover, they’ll lose by 6. If I pick them to lose, they’ll destroy the Bears.

So here’s the thing. Sunday in Chicago, it’s supposed to be partly cloudy with a high in the 40’s. Not cold enough to really hurt Carolina, and not nasty enough to really help Chicago.

The quarterback match-up of Jake Delhomme and Rex Grossman looks like one of the most lopsided QB match-ups of at least the last five years. Even if you move to the “One solid hit and we’re looking at (blank) coming into the game”, I’d take Chris Weinke over Kyle Orton in a big-time playoff game.

The Panthers have an edge in receivers; the Bears have the better running game and overall defense.

When it comes down to it, this pick is nothing more than a hunch. In other words, don’t bet too heavily on my word alone. I’m certainly not. Pick: Panthers 24, Bears 13.

Patriots @ BRONCOS: This game scares the crap out of me. Not because I think the Patriots will lose, but because everyone in the world has picked the Patriots to at least cover, if not win outright (and some people are even picking the Pats in a rout).

Denver didn’t get to 13-3 by default. Yes, they played a creampuff schedule after the bye, with the only games against decent teams coming in a gift Thanksgiving Day win at Dallas, a loss @KC, and a win in the last week of the season at a San Diego team that had long since given up. So I’m not too sure how to rate them.

On the other side of the field, New England had the hardest 6-game stretch in NFL history to start the season, and came out of it 3-3. Going 7-2 down the stretch (I’m discounting that Miami game in Week 17, when they basically tanked the 2-pt conversion to avoid Pittsburgh in the first round), they only had to go through Indy, KC, and Tampa, with two of those games (Indy & @KC) resulting in pretty bad losses. Otherwise, they got the Dolphins, Bills & Jets twice each (teams that were (18-30 combined this season, with 9 of those wins coming from Miami), with New Orleans (3-13) mixed in to spice up the craptastic stew just a little bit.

So how do I figure out exactly how to pick this game?

Let’s break it down. The Patriots ended up with the #8 overall rushing defense (98.1 ypg). Denver was #2 (85.2). Denver had the second best rushing offense (158.7 ypg); New England was #24 (94.5). Obviously, Denver has the edge on the ground, but it looks like it’s going to be a high octane, passing fueled game.

So how about those passing stats? The Pats were the #2 passing offense (257.5 ypg – somehow behind only Arizona?!), while Denver was #18 (201.7). Both teams were horrific in pass defense, with Denver ranking 29^th and New England 31^st (allowing 227.7 & 231.4 yards per game, respectively).

Which brings me to the question – in a playoff game, in a tense atmosphere, where any mistake could cost you the game, which quarterback do you trust more: Jake Plummer (150 TDs, 148 INTs, Passer Rating of 75.1 career, with a 1-2 record in the playoffs) or Tom Brady (132 TDs, 66 INTs, Passer Rating of 88.5, and a 10-0 career playoff record).

I know everyone has been sleeping on the Broncos all season long. Just a couple weeks ago, I said that I would have rather had the Pats face the Colts than the Broncos in the second round of the playoffs.

But if you think I’m picking against a Head Coach and Quarterback that have never lost together in the playoffs, you’re insane.

Pick: Patriots (+3) over BRONCOS, 31-20.

I am actually planning to bring my laptop on my West Coast excursion, first to Sand Diego, then to Vegas. If I do, I’ll try to put up a post Thursday night. If not, then I guess you’ll just have to trust me when I post my picks after the games happen.

I’ll even make the picks in front of three other people on Thursday, so at least I’ll have witnesses…

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 6:44 PM