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Week 16 Picks

Week 16 Picks

These are the toughest two weeks to pick in the NFL. After another nice week for me (12-4), I’m absolutely petrified by half of these lines, if only because about 70% of the teams in the NFL have nothing to play for. The ones that do are either fighting for a 6^th playoff seed or else openly tanking the season to have a shot at Reggie Bush. And somehow, there are still six different games with 6-point or higher lines. Well, let’s just get this debacle over with...

Lines from Sportsbook.com, and accurate as of 3PM Friday, December 23.

BENGALS (-13.5) over Bills: Only because Cincinnati has a legitimate shot at a #2 seed and a first-round bye, and because the Bills are in complete turmoil as an organization. Well, that, and because Chad Johnson may or may not bring a live deer onto the field for a TD celebration – if I’m the Bills, I’m triple-teaming him at all times to avoid this. Forget the game, just don’t let Chad bring the wildlife onto the field and embarrass us...

Steelers (-7.5) over BROWNS: I think Cleveland could probably keep this one close, but I also think that Pittsburgh is going to pull out all the stops in their final two games to hold on to their playoff spot. Pittsburgh, big.

CHIEFS (+2) over Chargers: This line opened with KC as a 1-point favorite, and has slid three points in the opposite direction. Here’s the thing – KC is just about out of playoff contention. They need to win out against SD and Denver, and still get some help. But they also can keep the division-rival Chargers out of the playoffs with a win this week. The Chiefs are awful tough at home – I’m giving them an outright win.

DOLPHINS (-5.5) over Titans: The Dolphins aren’t really as bad as everyone seems to think. And although the Titans were able to hang tough with the NFC’s best team last week, that’s kind of like being the smallest kid at fat camp – it doesn’t mean much. Miami will be a contender to the AFC East title in 2006, and they should be able to win this one handily.

Jaguars (-6.5) over TEXANS: See, didn’t I tell you last week that the Jaguars are just impossible to figure out? Unfortunately, the handicappers have realized that making the Jags 16-point favorites against anyone is probably a bad idea... What’s not hard to figure out is that the Texans will do everything in their power to stay in the hunt for the #1 overall pick. Week 17 versus the 49ers is shaping up to be possibly the worst game in NFL history...

Lions (+3) over SAINTS: ...narrowly edging out this game.

PANTHERS (-5) over Cowboys: Tough break for Dallas. It really looked for a while as though they had a good shot at the playoffs – now they’re third in their own division, with very little chance at the postseason. But on the plus side, at least they’re not the Eagles...

Eagles (+1) over CARDINALS: Did you ever think you’d see the day when the Eagles were underdogs to THE CARDINALS? Even at one point, it’s a sad state of affairs. And another thing – after watching Ryan Moats run behind a depleted offense for the last couple of weeks, do you think Philly’s management is beginning to regret that nice contract extension that Brian Westbrook got a couple months back?

Giants (+3) over REDSKINS: OK, I get it, the Redskins are streaky. They have two different three-game winning streaks as well as a three-game losing streak so far this season. And although Washington is currently on a three-game winning streak, I just think the Giants need this game more – after all, they’re not out of the running for the #2 overall seed in the NFC...

BUCS (-3) over Falcons: I don’t think there’s any way I could feel less certain about this line. I’ve watched Atlanta get hammered over the past month, but I also watched the Bucs get completely shut down last week in Gillette. Personally, I’m teasing it to Bucs (+3), just to be safe...

49ers (+9) over RAMS: Ugh...

BRONCOS (-13.5) over Raiders: Not as though the Raiders were going to keep this one very close, but now without Lamont Jordan for Week 16, they have very little threat of a running attack. The Broncos are beatable, just not this week.

Bears (-7) over PACKERS: Last Monday night was painful to watch. Not just because I was pulling for a Packers (+9.5) cover, but because Brett Favre has degenerated quicker than any athlete I can remember since Jim Rice began his collapse for the Red Sox a couple decades back. I never thought I’d see the Brett Favre Packers, at home, in December, be a 7-point underdog to ANYONE (let alone the Bears). I really hope he either hangs ‘em up, or gets one more shot to play for a contender in 2006, whether it’s in Green Bay (where he should be) or somewhere else, which no one could fault him for. He’s got the MVP hardware, he’s got the Lombardi hardware, and he’s got nothing left to prove.

RAVENS (-3) over Vikings: Amazing what a little 45-point demolishing can do for a team’s respect level, eh?

Patriots (-6) over JETS: Tough to hear that Matt Light isn’t coming back for the pats this season. Would have been nice to get him back to anchor the offensive line in the playoffs, further solidifying New England as the “team no one wants to play”.

SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over Colts: EVERYONE has pulled this line, considering the Colts’ lack of interest (as well as Marvin Harrison’s health status). Seattle still needs this win to lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, and since Indy should be resting guys by halftime, I think the Seahawks can pull out a 13-point win.

RECAP: BENGALS / Steelers / CHIEFS / DOLPHINS / Jaguars / Lions / PANTHERS / Eagles / Giants / BUCS / 49ers / BRONCOS / Bears / RAVENS / Patriots / SEAHAWKS

Best Lines to tease (+6):

BENGALS (-13.5 to -7.5)

Steelers (-7.5 to -1.5)

Jaguars (-6.5 to -0.5)

Giants (+3 to +9)

BUCS (-3 to +3)

49ers (+9 to +15)

BRONCOS (-13.5 to -7.5)

SEAHAWKS (-7.5 to -1.5)

See you after the holidays. Have a safe, happy weekend.

Lata.

posted by Big D @ 3:39 PM