Week 15 Picks
Week 15 Picks
Coming in to the home stretch of the season now. I really need three solid weeks to climb out of this funk of mediocrity (104-97-7 on the season) and end 2005 on a high note, giving me the confidence I’ll need heading into the playoffs and carrying me through to 2006.
Gawd, I sound like just about every NFL Head Coach, don’t I? Let’s just pick ‘em…
Lines from SportsInteraction.com via ESPN.com’s Daily Line, accurate of 11AM today…
PATRIOTS (-4) over Bucs: Heard a great point on the Dale & Holley show on WEEI earlier today. Why should Tom Brady play this game? The Pats are basically locked in to the AFC East title and the #4 seed (any Pats win or any Dolphins loss seals the deal), so why risk Brady’s health? If he plays, the Pats win big (but maybe at the risk of hurting the only irreplaceable player on the team). If he sits, it’s a close game, and probably a Bucs outright win. I say sit him – what are the odds of the Pats losing 3 straight (including @NYJ and home for Miami) and the Dolphins winning out?
GIANTS (-3) over Chiefs: Combine Kansas City’s inability to win on the road with the Giants’ dominance at home, and this shouldn’t be a close game. However… if Eli Manning can’t figure out what he’s doing wrong, the Chiefs might hang around just long enough to make this one interesting. I still think the G-Men win by 10 or more.
Broncos (-10) over BILLS: Now, I realize that the Broncos have looked really, really bad over the last two weeks. But the Bills are a lost cause at this point in the season. J.P. Losman looks like he might never evolve into the Franchise QB Buffalo hoped they had gotten when they traded up in the draft for him. Willis McGahee just isn’t “the best running back in the NFL”, no matter what he tries to tell us. Eric Moulds is probably going to leave the franchise, and Mike Mularkey has lame duck coach written all over him. On the flip side, the Broncos now actually have to fight with Cincy for that #2 seed and first-round bye, so they’ll be playing hard for four quarters.
TEXANS (+2) over Cardinals: Now with a two-game cushion in the Race for Reggie, the Texans are actually allowed to try and win a game. Luckily, they get the Cardinals in town, who aren’t too far behind Houston in the futility department…
Seahawks (-8) over TITANS: Has Seattle locked up the #1 seed in the NFC yet? They’re the only 10-win team in the conference, and they’ve already got 11. Sure, they could lose all three of their remaining games, and the Giants, Bears and Bucs could win out, pushing Seattle to the #4 seed. But, honestly, is there any chance that they don’t get a week off and a couple of home games in January?
Chargers (+8) over COLTS: I’m of the belief that the Colts will play their starters for no more than three quarters, regardless of the score at the time, and then pull them to get some rest. Next week will probably be only a half (though if Seattle’s locked up that #1 seed by then, that could be the most boring second half of football ever), and then Week 17 against Arizona, Peyton Manning will take one snap, throw a bomb to Marvin Harrison, then jog to the sidelines and take off the pads. There’s no reason to risk the injuries. Unfortunately, that makes my job of picking games involving the Colts much, much harder. I think with the reserves in there, the Chargers can make it close.
49ers (+16) over JAGUARS: Jacksonville is the one team in the league that I simply cannot figure out. One week, they absolutely dominate both sides of the ball. Then next week, they need late comebacks or a defensive stand just to hold on to a win. They’re 9-4, and I have no idea how. I just can’t believe that they can build a lead big enough to cover this line and hold it for four quarters.
Panthers (-9) over SAINTS: Not that it influenced my pick, but is the benching of Aaron Brooks in favor of Todd Bouman for the rest of the year just a metaphor for the Saints’ entire season? Tough year for these guys – but at least the NFL is giving them a $40,000 bonus for “performing under unusual and unanticipated conditions...”
Eagles (+4) over RAMS: No real reason here. When two lousy teams with unproven QB’s meet, I’m taking the one with the better defense. In this case, it just happens to be the team with the QB that didn’t go to Harvard…
DOLPHINS (-9) over Jets: Remember what I said earlier about “there’s no way the dolphins win out…” well, they certainly can make things interesting with this win and a possible Pats’ loss. And the way Miami has been playing the last couple of weeks, I guess nothing is impossible…
VIKINGS (-3) over Steelers: Pittsburgh isn’t stopping two big winning streaks on back-to-back weeks. If this game was outside, in the snow, with Jerome Bettis looking like Jerome Bettis circa 1998, maybe. But it’s indoors, in the climate controlled Metrodome, against the ball-control Vikings offense led by Brad Johnson under center. The Vikings’ bandwagon rolls on baby! I’m just happy I got in on the ground floor… edit: It was just announced that a handful of Vikings were indicted in the Boat Cruise scandal… I’m pulling this line off the board myself. If I had to make a new pick, I’d say take the Steelers, but tease them up to +9…
Browns (+3) over RAIDERS: Just when we thought that Norv Turner had settled on his crappy QB of choice… I should have known better than to pick against Romeo Crennel with a big line when he has the chance to scheme a defense specifically to stop one player (Carson Palmer last week, Peyton Manning earlier this year). This week, I think they load up on Lamont Jordan if Tuiasosopo starts, and they shut down Randy Moss & Jerry Porter if it’s Kerry Collins.
Bengals (-8) over LIONS: It’s looking more and more like the only football game played in Detroit this year that will actually have fans interested will be the Super Bowl. Just a terrible, terrible team. Awful product on the field, and it’s the fault of the awful product sitting in the GM’s box.
Cowboys (+2) over REDSKINS: Somehow, the Redskins are not eliminated from Wild Card contention yet. Although with four teams ahead of them (including the boys in blue that they’re playing this week), this loss will put the final nail in the coffin of the once promising 2005 season. Cowboys by at least a TD.
BEARS (-3) over Falcons: Let’s see, a banged-up Mike Vick against the best defense in the NFL, or a shaky Kyle Orton against a vastly overrated Falcons’ defense. You know what, with the game outdoors in Chicago, at night, and in primetime, even all the ass-kissing that the ESPN crew can level on Mike Vick isn’t winning this game for Atlanta, and it will probably seal them out of the playoff race as well.
Packers (+4) over RAVENS: This is obscene. Last week, we got Green Bay & Detroit on the National Sunday Night telecast, and Atlanta vs. New Orleans on Monday. This week, we get the Falcons and Bears (a game that might produce 24 total points) as the Sunday Night game, and this train wreck on Monday Night. What ever happened to the idea of the NFL switching games to give the National TV audience the best games to watch? Whatever – Packers win, Brett Favre throws at least one bad pick, Kyle Boller spontaneously combusts at midfield to the delight of Ravens’ fans worldwide.
RECAP: PATRIOTS / GIANTS / Broncos / TEXANS / Seahawks / Chargers / 49ers / Panthers / Eagles / DOLPHINS / VIKINGS / Browns / Bengals / Cowboys / BEARS / Packers
Best Lines to tease (+6):
Bucs (+4 to +10)
Broncos (-10 to –4)
TEXANS (+2 to +8)
49ers (+16 to +22)
DOLPHINS (-9 to –3)
Browns (+3 to +9)
Bengals (-8 to –2)
Packers (+4 to +10)
posted by Big D @ 12:33 PM
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