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Week 13 Picks

Week 13 Picks

It’s 10PM on a Saturday night. To give you a demonstration of how devoted I am to my loyal reader(s?), I am not out partying, or boozing with the boys after a long six day work week (the tenth straight Saturday I’ve worked). No, I’m studying football lines for tomorrow’s games, and researching things like the Arizona Cardinals’ record against the spread versus divisional opponents on the road for the last five seasons.

OK, maybe I made that last part up. But I am here, sitting in my kitchen, writing about football lines. However, I’m not missing much action – the only other place I’d be right now is my bed, passed out, while SportCenter ran on the TV for eight hours straight. Chances are, that’s going to happen in the next 30-45 minutes anyway.

Personally, I’d rather spend the time with you.

11-5 last week (11-5? Are you kidding? Was anyone recording that?), pushing me above .500 (87-83-6) for the season with five weeks to go! Still plenty of time for me to botch the whole thing and end the year 15 games below even...

Lines are from SportsBook.com (my new betting home for the rest of the year. May Bodog and their devilish poker software rot in hell. SportsBook.com & ParadisePoker.com are my new team), and are accurate as of, 10:15PM Saturday...

DOLPHINS (-5) over Bills: Just don’t like Buffalo on the road in this one. Actually, I don’t like Buffalo at all. Plus, with the recent Michael Irvin arrest and subsequent suspension from ESPN, Ricky Williams has got to be thinking that, if he plays his cards right, he’s got a sweet studio gig and maybe even a shot at the Hall of Fame waiting for him once he re-retires...

Bengals (+3) over STEELERS: I was this close to taking Pittsburgh at home in this one, until I read “Ben Roethlisberger – Questionable – Thumb”. Hmmm... wasn’t it this same thumb that caused him to look so ungodly awful in last season’s AFC Title game? Would this thumb injury lead to even a remote possibility of Tommy Maddox entering this game at a crucial point? Has Chad Johnson planned an entire end-zone celebration around this thumb (maybe a big thumbs down to the crowd, or something like that)... just seems like the Bengals take this one and cement first place in the AFC North...

RAVENS (-8) over Texans: I’ll feel a lot better when it’s RAVENS (-2)... Couldn’t they just decide that whoever wins the coin toss wins this game 3-0, and spare all the fans the misery of actually watching two JV teams fumble the ball for 60 minutes straight? Is this really too much to ask?

COLTS (-16) over Titans: Remember a few weeks ago, when I said that the Colts would ease off the accelerator towards the end of the year, doing just enough to win games, not over-exerting themselves and saving their strength for January on the road? Yeah, I’m gonna back off that stance just a little bit...

BROWNS (+3) over Jaguars: Beware the road favorite relying on a QB with exactly 12 games of NFL experience and a 67.9 QB Rating... Especially when he’s going into an environment like Cleveland...

GIANTS (-3.5) over Cowboys: It’s a home game – Giants win by 6 or more. Boy, this is pretty simple...

BEARS (-7) over Packers: I hope that Brett Favre comes back one more year, if only so that he can end his career playing on a team that actually can compete every week. This group of guys pulled off the streets should be playing alongside one of the top 10 QB’s ever to put on the pads. It’s pretty sad...

Vikings (-2.5) over LIONS: Even though I think every NFL team wins the first game after firing their coach... I mean, c’mon. It’s DETROIT. Plus, the Vikings won’t lose another regular season game, just like I said a month ago...

PANTHERS (-3) over Falcons: I just think Mike Vick is due for a lousy game. He’s had 7 TD’s to only one pick in his last four games and no QB ratings under 86 – I think this is the week he falls back to “Mediocre QB – Exceptional RB” status.

Bucs (-3.5) over SAINTS: There is no situation in which I would feel comfortable betting actual money on the Saints this season. None. You could hand me $10,000 and say “Go bet this on the Saints - they’re 25 point underdogs to the Texans!” and I would hand it back to you with a smile and say “Don’t worry – they’ll blow it.” Just trust me – if the Saints lose this game by less than 4 points... well, I’m far too tired to think of a good idea to finish this point, but you get the drift...

Cardinals (-3) over 49ERS: Yeah, sure. Whatever. Like this game matters at all... If you’re putting any kind of cash on this game, it may be time for you to look at the possibility that you might have a gambling problem, and that this may not be the best site for you to be reading...

Redskins (-3) over RAMS: I’m positively salivating at the thoughts of Santana Moss going against the Rams’ secondary. By the way, good luck getting the image of me salivating out of your head now – it’s permanently burned in there...

Jets (+10) over PATRIOTS: Two weeks ago, against the Saints, I said that this Patriots team should never, EVER, be favored by double digits in the 2005 season. Naturally, the handicappers took my advice seriously, waited a week, then made the Pats 10-point favorites again. Glad to see I wield so much power...

(By the way. On a personal side note, I’m a jackass. Not telling you anything you didn’t already know. Tuesday, my phone rang at about 11:30. Since I had just fallen asleep, I angrily woke up, saw that it was my buddy Tim, tried to clear my head and thought to myself “Why in the hell is Tim calling this late during the week?” and promptly turned the phone off so I could go back to sleep. Not a smart move. Tim got tickets to this game. And while I would almost always prefer to watch a game on a TV from my couch with a beer and some chips, and a remote control to monitor the other games, I would never, EVER, pass up the chance to go to Gillette Stadium. It’s that nice of a place. OK, I’m babbling. Sorry – the No-Doze hasn’t kicked in yet...)

Broncos (-1) over CHIEFS: Most ridiculous line of the week. Jake Plummer throws a pick, the Chiefs dismantle the struggling Patriots in KC, and suddenly this is a 1-point game? So the odds-makers are saying that the extra three days of rest that Denver got this week will be a bad thing for them? Or maybe that vaunted Chiefs defense will have four more passes deflected into the arms of a waiting defensive back... nope. Don’t see it happening...

CHARGERS (-11.5) over Raiders: But only because I’m teasing it down to (-5.5)...

Seahawks (-4) over EAGLES: Even with the jet lag factor, I think Seattle can handle this incarnation of the Eagles. Easily. But look on the bright side Phily fans – with an 8-8 finish, you can justify dumping T.O., and then blame lousy draft position for the next three seasons of mediocrity...

RECAP: DOLPHINS / Bengals / RAVENS / COLTS / BROWNS / GIANTS / BEARS / Vikings / PANTHERS / Bucs / Cardinals / Redskins / Jets / Broncos / CHARGERS / Seahawks

Best Lines to Tease (+6):

Bengals (+3 to +9)

RAVENS (-8 to -2)

COLTS (-16 to -10) or Titans (+16 to +22) – either way...

BEARS (-7 to -1)

49ERS (+3 to +9)

Jets (+10 to +16) or PATRIOTS (-10 to -4)

CHARGERS (-11.5 to -6.5)

EAGLES (+4 to +10)

And now, bed. Lata.

posted by Big D @ 10:45 PM