Week 17 Picks
You know what… does it even matter anymore? This week’s games mean something for only a handful of the teams playing, so why even try to pick them?
Here’s the thing. Teams are going to play differently pending the early games. If the Steelers already know they’ve been guaranteed a spot by way of the Chargers game against Denver (the tiebreakers are insane – click here if you’re really interested…) So do you think they’ll play 4 full quarters of balls-to-the-wall football if they have nothing to gain and run the risk of injuring key players?
Well, I guess I need something challenging to do to work off the frustration of yet another ridiculously bad run of luck at online poker. I’d been having a pretty good week, until I got bored tonight and logged back in.
Note to self – when bored in the future, GO TO SLEEP. Your body and bank account will thank you in the morning…
126-105-9 (holy crap! How the hell did that happen?) for the season, after a 12-4 week in Week 15 and a 10-4-2 last week.
Lines accurate as of 11PM Friday, from Sportsbook.com. Picks not guaranteed after kickoff on Saturday – I’m taking no responsibility if teams end up playing for nothing by Sunday…
Broncos (+11) over CHARGERS: See, this is exactly what I was talking about on Tuesday when I said that the Broncos have quietly coasted to the #2 seed in the AFC. While Indy was getting all the press for the chase at immortality,
Giants (-8.5) over RAIDERS: I’m giddy thinking about the next team Norv Turner is going to get a shot at running into the ground… This is another one of those games that will change the way a couple of the Sunday games are played. The Giants are still playing for a home playoff game. Here’s a question though – if you’re New York, would you rather travel to Chicago in round 2 as the #2 seed, or Seattle as the #4. Assuming, of course, that you can get by
COLTS (-7) over Cardinals: Alright, admit it. How many of you with late fantasy championship games grabbed Jim Sorgi this week? (Yes, I did…)
Ravens (-3) over BROWNS: Just like I was one year early with a prediction of Washington winning the NFC East, I think I might be one year early with Baltimore taking the AFC North. Did Kyle Boller suddenly figure out how to be a NFL quarterback? Don’t write off
Bills (-1.5) over JETS: The best thing that could happen to New York would be a loss in this game, coupled with wins by Houston, New Orleans and Green Bay. I can’t even imagine the marketing war in
Panthers (-3.5) over FALCONS: I just have no faith in any wager that depends on Mike Vick playing like an NFL quarterback instead of an NFL running back with a good arm.
Bears (+4.5) over VIKINGS: In a game with ZERO value, I’m just taking the better overall team. I’m sure they’ll be resting by the 4th quarter, but with a first-round bye, they’ll be playing hard for the first three…
CHIEFS (-7.5) over Bengals: Pending the Chargers/Broncos game on Saturday. If the Chiefs still have something to play for, they’ll be awful hard to beat in Arrowhead. If they’re done already, this game might get ugly. One word of caution – take the over. I took it at O/U 48, and I’m OK with that number…
STEELERS (-13.5) over Lions: Doesn’t matter if they’ve clinched before kickoff or not, the Lions have absolutely no reason to be in this game. And that’s coming from someone who cringes every time he even considers giving up seven or more points.
PATRIOTS (-5.5) over Dolphins: The Pats can still get the #3 seed I the AFC with a win and Bengals’ loss, so look for them to play this game hard, for at least three quarters. After that, it just might be Flutie time!
BUCCANEERS (-13.5) over Saints: If the Saints were smart, they’d sit everyone and just sign people out of the stands to give themselves the best shot at the #1 pick (If Houston wins and New Orleans loses, Reggie Bush will be marching through the Superdome, or wherever the Saints are playing, in 2006). Of course, these are the Saints we’re talking about. They’re led by a guy who actually thought a 46-50 career record with the team warranted a demand for a new contract. Who knows –
49ERS (+1.5) over
JAGUARS (-3.5) over Titans: Not that
Seahawks (+5) over PACKERS: We’ll finally get the answers to the questions we’ve all been dying to know, like “who exactly is the backup quarterback in
Redskins (-8) over EAGLES: How fitting of an end to the season would it be for
COWBOYS (-12.5) over Rams: Regardless of the playoff situation, the Cowboys are going to take out a year’s worth of frustrations on the poor Rams. Watch this game –
RECAP: Broncos / Giants / COLTS / Ravens / Bills / Panthers / Bears / CHIEFS / STEELERS / PATRIOTS / BUCS / 49ERS / JAGUARS / Seahawks / Redskins / COWBOYS
Best lines to tease (+6):
Broncos (+11 to +17)
Giants (-8.5 to -2.5)
Bears (+4.5 to +10.5)
CHIEFS (-7.5 to -1.5)
STEELERS (-13.5 to -7.5)
BUCS (-13.5 to -7.5)
49ERS (+1.5 to +7.5)
Seahawks (+5 to +11)
That’s it and that’s all for 2005. Have a safe and happy New Year’s celebration, and if you’re in the
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 12:43 AM
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