Wild Card Round Picks
Wild Card Round Picks
For whatever reason, this past Monday I omitted a major section from my “Week 17 Recap”. The last note before I went into my Playoff Predictions was supposed to read as follows:
n Aw, what the hell. For the record (and since I have no gambling interest, so what do I care, right?), It’ll be Ohio State, Georgia (in what is essentially a home game – almost as bad as the Giants getting 9 games in Jersey this year), Penn State, and finally Texas over USC by a touchdown, 48-41. If there is any team that has a legitimate “disrespected” card to play, it’s these Texas Longhorns. It’s almost like the title game has already been played, with USC a decisive winner. Texas is going to come out angry and pound USC all night long. I’m sure there will be like 1200 yards of offense, and Reggie Bush will probably cement his #1 overall pick status, but it’s gonna be a hell of a game.
Now, I’m sure that none of you believe I could be that prescient with anything I could ever write, but I did type it, and for whatever reason it didn’t copy over into the actual post. Go ahead, call me a liar. Call me a revisionist historian. Whatever. I know what I wrote and what I knew ahead of time (although I missed the score, and Bush wasn’t exactly spectacular aside from his one TD run).
Alright, onto the picks for the first round of the playoffs. I’ll try to be a little more in-depth with the picks as the postseason progresses – with less games to write about, I should (theoretically) have more to say about each one.
And, as I’ve done for the past two years, I wipe the slate clean for the playoffs and start back at 0-0-0. I’ll add it all up after the Super Bowl, but the playoffs are the second season, and I treat them accordingly…
Lines accurate as of 9AM Thursday, from ESPN.com’s Daily Line via BetUS.com…
Redskins (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS: Look, nine times out of ten, I’ll take the home favorite in the playoffs. But like with anything in life, there are always exceptions to the rule:
Exception #1: If the home favorite starts a QB with less that 2 full years of experience.
Exception #2: If the home team is a warm-weather team and the road team is a cold-weather team, there is no “weather advantage”. (Reverse applies with cold weather home underdogs…)
Exception #3: If the two teams have already played each other during the season, usually take the team that lost the previous meeting in the most heartbreaking manner – they’ve got more to prove.
Now, the Bucs are starting Chris Simms – a serviceable, if nothing more than mediocre, NFL quarterback. They are a warm-weather team hosting a cold-weather team, meaning that anything short of a monsoon will most likely result in no advantage at all.
And does anyone remember the first meeting between these two teams in 2005? Remember the two-point conversion with triple-zeroes on the clock to win it for Tampa? I think Washington will be ready to prove themselves. Besides, they’re riding a long winning streak and had to play hard last week to get in the playoffs, so they’ve got the momentum heading into the first round. Pick: Washington, 34-20.
PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Jaguars: Well, for starters, let’s apply the reverse to Exception #2 above. A warm weather team being forced to play in a cold weather stadium is automatically at a disadvantage. Now, let’s add in the fact that Jacksonville is welcoming back a quarterback that hasn’t played in over a month thanks to a broken ankle.
And finally, let’s all remember that possibly the greatest defensive-minded head coach to ever walk a sideline is wearing Patriots’ blue (or grey, if he’s got that ridiculous hoodie on again). If you think he won’t find a way to exploit Leftwich’s rustiness, or the lack of Fred Taylor and the youth of Greg Jones, you’re crazy. But feel free to keep betting on Jacksonville and dropping this line for me… Pick: New England, 27-13.
GIANTS (-2.5) over Carolina: Not that Carolina is all that warm this time of year, but it’s probably more of a “warm-weather” city than New York. For as much as I’d like to sit here and wax poetic about this pick, it’s actually pretty simple – The Giants (7-1, 8-1 if you count the “road” game against New Orleans) don’t lose at home. Carolina was actually a pretty good road team this year (6-2), but they just don’t seem like they’ve got enough to hang with these Giants. If New York can hold off the Panthers’ front four, they should win in a rout. Pick: New York, 31-16.
Pittsburgh (-3) over BENGALS: Has this ever happened before? A #6 seed is a road favorite in the playoffs? Not only that, but a road favorite to a division foe? I mean, they’ve already played twice this year, splitting those games. It’s not like they don’t know each other’s game pretty well.
It’s almost like Cincinnati has been playing possum for the last few weeks, trying to rest players while still appearing to care about the games. The Bengals locked up the AFC North a few weeks back – they were guaranteed a first-round home game, and maybe that’s all they wanted. But if they’re rested and ready to go, this is going to be a fun game to watch.
I’m taking Pittsburgh, but I’m not 100% percent confident in it. I think this game is going to go one of two ways. Either Pittsburgh wins a hard fought, 3-7 point game, or Cincinnati opens the offense up, spreads the field, and wins by 13+. Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-20.
Quote of the Week:
So, it’s been a pretty slow week for me, quotes-wise. There were quite a few memorable ones New Years’ Eve, but alas I didn’t bring a pad and pencil to the bar and by the next morning, I had long since forgotten them. I guess I’m just choosing one from the morning commute today, because it seemed funny at the time:
From The Dennis & Callahan Morning Show on WEEI:
Callahan: See, if I’m Mack Brown, I’m taking Vince Young on one of those “Katrina disaster tours” through New Orleans – I think that will guarantee that he stays in college one more year instead of letting the Saints draft him…
Cruel, yep. Uncalled-for, yep. Funny? Yep.
On a personal note, I’m going to be on a working vacation for awhile, traveling to San Diego for four days next weekend, then Vegas for five more days on the way home. So unfortunately, I probably won’t be able to make my picks for the Conference Championship round of the playoffs (I don’t plan on bringing a laptop for this Vegas excursion, but we’ll see). So in next week’s picks, I’ll predict lines based on the four possibilities, and make pseudo-picks based on the pseudo-lines.
What the hell – not like I’m betting on the playoffs anyway.
Lata.
posted by Big D @ 9:20 AM
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