Quick Thoughts - June 28th
Seven and a half more days.
A little over one week.
Just about 188 hours. But who’s counting, right?
10AM next Wednesday, I leave to begin my 10-day odyssey into the Main Event of the World Series of Poker.
Do I seem a little too excited?
Naturally, with just over a week until I leave Logan Airport for my 6+ hour flight to McCarran International, I’ve hit a hellish stretch at work. 11 straight days of non-stop projects and cases, when I’m used to running no more than two a week. Figures.
Anyway, because of the time spent at work running my ass off, and the time it’s going to take me to figure out what I need to pack, (not to mention the inevitable binge drinking and next-day hangover to celebrate the Birth of our Nation next Monday), this is going to be a very short post today. I won’t be posting again until I’m settled into my hotel room at Harrah’s Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas.
My goal is to be able to post everyday with an update of how I’m doing and what has happened throughout the tournament. Might not be the most interesting for you guys, but hopefully someone will enjoy it. I’ll probably post in the mornings, as the playing hours are scheduled to be Noon-10PM PST, so if I’m still around at the end of each day I doubt I’ll be in the mood to post at midnight…
Quick Thoughts while learning to control my heart rate…
n Let me explain that title. I have only one tell when I’m playing poker – I can’t control my heart rate effectively. Anytime I mutter the words “All-In”, my heart rate goes up to about 140 beats per minute, and you can actually see my pulse in the side of my neck. This is actually not a bad tell, since the same thing happens whether I’m bluffing or I’ve got the stone cold nuts. But it’s still something I need to learn to control, and fast.
n Ha – “stone cold nuts”. Wonder how many times that’ll rack me up in the next couple of weeks…
n I think Jeremy Roenick actually did get taken a little bit out of context in his interview at the Mario Lemieux golf tournament the other day. As a person who knows something about the business of editing video to get a specific point across, it’s not all that hard to take a couple of clips that are relatively unrelated and splice them together to make a new clip that can really stir the pot. Somewhere, I believe, someone decided to make the story better than it was and start up a faux-controversy. It’s sad, but that’s today’s media.
n Speaking of video editing, I thank those of you who took the time to watch my Red Sox Video and pass along comments about it. Makes it that much more worthwhile for me.
n I need to offer a Mea Culpa to last week’s “Mea Culpa”. I have absolutely no idea what I was thinking when I penciled in Jose Guillen as my Dark Horse for the NL MVP, and thankfully Vinny called me on it yesterday. I was wrong – I think I was listening to the radio and they were talking about Guillen. The actual Dark Horse candidate that I meant to put in was Andruw Jones from Atlanta. If the Braves can turn it around in the second half and get back atop the NL East (or at least into Wild Card contention), Jones is probably going to be a big reason why. Same goes for Bobby Abreu from Philadelphia, who was Vinny’s choice.
n Hmmm, let’s see. ESPN’s scouting report on Salim Stoudamire is something along the lines of “Best pure shooter in the draft, but character questions and his general commitment to the game raise serious questions about him”… Who else thinks he’s a Blazer by the end of tonight? I mean, doesn’t that scouting report just scream “Portland”?
n Speaking of tonight’s NBA Draft, ESPN.com’s Daily Quickie had a great “drinking game” in today’s edition. Check it out, and be prepared to call-in to work with tomorrow’s hangover.
n Yeah, like anybody who reads this is actually going to be watching the draft…
Quote of the Week(end):
Wow, two weeks in a row I’m going to have a quote from a round of golf…
After I made yet another horrible chip in my Sunday round of golf…
“You know, the only distance I can judge correctly with my sand wedge is how far to throw it.”
Yes, I had a bad round of golf Sunday. But it’s just a game, and I’m sure that sooner or later, I’ll remember how to swing my clubs correctly. It’s amazing – when I started playing golf I was able to break 90 in my very first season of play (88 in my 4th round ever). Now, it’s a victory when I break 110. Gotta work on that.
OK guys, that’s it and that’s all. Wish me luck – I’m off to make my fortune in Vegas!
Lata.
Mea Culpa!
Mea Culpa!
With most of the teams in Major League Baseball having completed 70+ games in this baseball season, I’d say there’s a pretty good sample size to determine just how bad my Preseason Predictions were.
I take no responsibility for injury-induced mistakes (like picking the Giants to iwn the National League Pennant), but everything else, well, oops…
American League East
| Original Prediction | Current Standings |
Yankees | 96-66 (.593) | 37-34 (.521 – 3rd place) |
Red Sox | 93-69 (.574) | 41-30 (.577 – 2nd place) |
Devil Rays | 80-82 (.494) | 25-47 (.347 – 5th place) |
Orioles | 78-84 (.482) | 42-29 (.592 – 1st place) |
Blue Jays | 70-92 (.432) | 36-36 (.500 – 4th place) |
Biggest Mistake: Tough choice between picking Baltimore 4th or Tampa Bay 3rd… In my defense – wait, nevermind. There’s no defense for either of those.
Close Enough: Glad to see I know the home team pretty well…Had them finishing 14 over .500; they’ve already got 11 of those 14.
New Predictions: I’m still not a believer in Baltimore. Sorry, but Bruce Chen and Sidney Ponson just don’t cut it for me. Now, if they go out and get a Jason Schmidt before the deadline, maybe I’ll change my mind. But for now, let’s make the new order…
Boston
Baltimore (wild card)
New York
Toronto
Tampa Bay
American League Central
| Original Prediction | Current Standings |
Indians | 93-69 (.574) | 37-33 (.529 – 3rd place) |
Twins | 88-74 (.543) | 38-31 (.551 – 2nd place) |
White Sox | 82-80 (.506) | 49-22 (.690 – 1st place) * |
Tigers | 73-89 (.451) | 35-33 (.515 – 4th place) |
Royals | 60-102 (.370) | 25-46 (.352 – 5th place) |
Biggest Mistake: Buying the Indians’ hype… Thinking that the White Sox didn’t have the starting pitching to contend (let alone to have the best record in the majors)…
Close Enough: Well, somehow I did place three of the five teams in the correct order, only reversing Chicago & Cleveland. KC is actually worse then I thought they’d be (and yes, I realize that I originally predicted the Royals to go 60-112, which would be pretty sad in a 162-game season. Math is not my strong suit. I used a calculator to figure out that Toronto’s 36-36 record put them at .500 so far)
New Predictions: It’s a battle for second place right now, and choosing to avoid the “instant history” that is so common in today’s sports reporting, I’ve made my predictions ignoring the current losing streaks of the Indians (3) and Twins (4):
Chicago
Minnesota
Detroit
Cleveland
Kansas City
American League West
| Original Prediction | Current Standings |
Angels | 94-68 (.580) | 42-29 (.592 – 1st place) |
A’s | 91-71 (.562) | 31-40 (.437 – 4th place) |
Mariners | 82-80 (.506) | 32-38 (.457 – 3rd place) |
Rangers | 74-88 (.457) | 37-33 (.529 – 2nd place) |
Biggest Mistake: Re-reading “Moneyball” before writing my Preseason Predictions… Completely underrating Orel Hersheiser as a pitching coach…
Close Enough: The Angels. Wow. Even losing last year’s MVP for a few weeks, they’ve managed to keep an awful nice season moving forward.
New Predictions: Anaheim’s not a guaranteed winner, yet, but Texas is really the only team with a chance to catch them. Once again, I’ve seen too much of the old Chan Ho Park & Kenny Rogers to believe that the new versions are the real deal. Especially in that ballpark…
Anaheim
Texas
Seattle
Oakland
National League East
| Original Prediction | Current Standings |
Braves | 100-62 (.617) | 38-33 (.535 – 3rd place) |
Marlins | 89-73 (.549) | 34-34 (.500 – 4th place) |
Mets | 89-73 (.549) | 34-37 (.479 – 5th place) |
Phillies | 82-80 (.506) | 39-33 (.542 –2nd place) |
Nationals | 61-101 (.377) | 42-30 (.583 – 1st place) |
Biggest Mistake: “I really just have nothing to add to the discussion of the Washington Nationals. I don’t think they’ll be very good. That about covers it.” Oh yeah; dead-on-balls accurate there, D…
Close Enough: Nothing. I couldn’t have screwed up this division any more if I’d written the predictions drunk off my ass. In fact, looking up at that “Original Prediction” column, I’m not 100% sure that I wasn’t drunk off my ass…
New Predictions: Can the Nats keep this up? Well, I still think that Atlanta takes this division in the end. Aside from Livan Hernandez, I can’t name one starting pitcher on the Washington roster, but who cares?! I’ve got Nats fever!
Washington
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
New York
National League Central
| Original Prediction | Current Standings |
Cardinals | 102-60 (.630) | 45-26 (.634 – 1st place) * |
Cubs | 86-76 (.531) | 36-34 (.514 – 2nd place) |
Brewers | 84-78 (.519) | 32-39 (.451 – 4th place) |
Reds | 82-80 (.506) | 29-43 (.403 – 6th place) |
Astros | 77-85 (.475) | 31-39 (.443 – 5th place) |
Pirates | 68-94 (.420) | 32-38 (.457 – 3rd place) |
Biggest Mistake: I think I gave the Reds a little too much credit for signing Eric Milton, Rich Aurilia, and Joe Randa, and for not dealing away Wily Mo Pena. I still think that the Brewers will end up in 3rd place, and maybe even give the Cubs a run for second.
Close Enough: Well, the Cardinals were just about a no-brainer, and the Cubs’ pitching (when/if it’s ever healthy) just about guarantees them 70-75 wins between Prior/Wood/Zambrano/Maddux. Anything they get from the “fill-in” guys is gravy…
New Predictions: Like Chicago, the Cards have this division wrapped up. Aside from a tornado wiping out Busch Stadium forcing a 3-month road-trip, I don’t see them coughing up this lead. Hell, even a 3-month road trip would probably result in a winning record…
St. Louis
Chicago (wild card)
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
Houston
Cincinnati
National League West
| Original Prediction | Current Standings |
Giants | 92-70 (.568) | 30-40 (.429 – 4th place) |
Padres | 88-74 9.543) | 40-32 (.556 – 1st place) |
Dodgers | 82-80 (.506) | 34-37 (.479 – 3rd place) |
D-Backs | 74-88 (.457) | 36-37 (.493 – 2nd place) |
Rockies | 66-96 (.407) | 22-48 (.314 – 5th place) |
Biggest Mistake: Assuming Barry Bonds wouldn’t try to hide from the harsh light of steroids. Oops.
Close Enough: “if San Francisco’s age catches up to them, the upstart Padres will be right there to take the division reins.” Yep… (Patting myself on the back…)
New Predictions: If Barry comes back at the All-Star Break, and Brian Sabean decides to hold onto guys like Jason Schmidt and Moises Alou, The Giants could make a run. Considering how weak this division is, it’s not completely out of the question. But Barry’s not coming through that door, and Schmidt (at the very least) is probably walking out:
San Diego
Los Angeles
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado
Awards & Playoffs
Original Prediction | New Prediction |
AL MVP |
Manny Ramirez or Adrian Beltre Dark Horse: Travis Hafner | Miguel Tejada or Vlad Guerrero Dark Horse: Mark Teixeira |
NL MVP |
Albert Pujols or Carlos Beltran Dark Horse: Adam Dunn | Albert Pujols or Derek Lee Dark Horse: Jose Guillen |
AL Cy Young (Oops…) |
Randy Johnson Dark Horse: Rich Harden | Jon Garland or Roy Halladay Dark Horse: Matt Clement |
NL Cy Young |
Pedro Martinez or Tim Hudson Dark Horse: Oliver Perez | Dontrelle Willis or Roger Clemens Dark Horse: Pedro Martinez |
AL Manager of the Year |
Eric Wedge or Mike Scoscia Dark Horse: Lou Pinella | Ozzie Guillen or Lee Mazilli Dark Horse: Terry Francona |
NL Manager of the Year |
Bobby Cox or Felipe Alou Dark Horse: Ned Yost | Frank Robinson or Bruce Bochy Dark Horse: Dusty Baker |
AL Home Run Champ |
Alex Rodriguez or Vlad Guerrero Dark Horse: David Ortiz | Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira Dark Horse: Manny Ramirez |
NL Home Run Champ |
Albert Pujols or Carlos Delgado Dark Horse: Barry Bonds | Adam Dunn or Derek Lee Dark Horse: Albert Pujols |
I still say the Red Sox take the AL Pennant, now going through the White Sox and Angels. But the National League looks a little different than it did in February. St. Louis to the Series, after eliminating San Diego and then Chicago.
Poor Chicagoans. Looks like they could have two teams ousted in the LCS this year…
WORLD SERIES
Not quite as bad as last year, but let’s go with….
Boston over St. Louis (6 games)
Yeah. I think that works for me…
Quick Thoughts while making a packing list for the WSOP in 13 days…
n Like I said, Spurs in 7… J
n Guess this means I’ll actually have to watch the basketball game tonight. The Red Sox are on a travel day, there’s no hockey, and it’s Thursday night – what the hell else am I supposed to watch?
n Which reminds me… is it football season yet?
n Boy, that Indians bandwagon that was making stops all over the city looks like if blew four flats this week, huh? (I wish you could all see the grin on my face as I type that)
n Swear to God – I thought that NESN was playing a late April-fool’s joke on their viewers on Tuesday as they kept flashing scores on the screen, and the Yankees went from down 10-2 to up 20-11 in the course of an hour. When they finally showed the highlights, I mean, wow. I think I could have hit a couple out off of Tampa’s pitchers that night…
n Two links for today before I end this…
o http://budlight.whipnet.com - Very possibly the greatest website of all time. You can thank me later…
o http://www.paradisepoker.com/promotions/2005/wild_las_vegas - just added to the list of “celebrities” hosting my WSOP pre-party at The Palms, it’s America’s favorite pseudo-celebrities, Mr. & Mrs. “Boston” Rob Mariano! Boy, I’m even more excited now! Forget the former Playmate of the Year, or the ex-supermodel turned TV Show host who were the original hosts; I can’t wait to go hang out with Boston Rob, a guy who I remember sitting on a couch with as he ate Cheerios, drank beers, and watched “Baseball Tonight” waiting for the party to start. I swear he’s got a horseshoe shoved about 6-inches deep in his ass…
Quote of the Week:
If you’re not a golfer and/or a child of the 80’s, you might not find this as funny as my friend Jay and I did. Oh well…
While trying to get a read on Jay’s 25-foot par putt on the 6th green at a local golf course last weekend:
Me: “So what do you think it’s gonna do?”
Jay: “Um, move. A lot”
Me: “Looks like it’s uphill, downhill, then left and then back right. It’s like the Nintendo cheat code of putts.”
Jay: (unable to putt for a minute from the laughing)
Me: (thinking to myself) “Well, my work is done…”
Lata.
