Mea Culpa!
Mea Culpa!
With most of the teams in Major League Baseball having completed 70+ games in this baseball season, I’d say there’s a pretty good sample size to determine just how bad my Preseason Predictions were.
I take no responsibility for injury-induced mistakes (like picking the Giants to iwn the National League Pennant), but everything else, well, oops…
American League East
Original Prediction | Current Standings | |
Yankees | 96-66 (.593) | 37-34 (.521 – 3rd place) |
Red Sox | 93-69 (.574) | 41-30 (.577 – 2nd place) |
Devil Rays | 80-82 (.494) | 25-47 (.347 – 5th place) |
Orioles | 78-84 (.482) | 42-29 (.592 – 1st place) |
Blue Jays | 70-92 (.432) | 36-36 (.500 – 4th place) |
Biggest Mistake: Tough choice between picking Baltimore 4th or Tampa Bay 3rd… In my defense – wait, nevermind. There’s no defense for either of those.
Close Enough: Glad to see I know the home team pretty well…Had them finishing 14 over .500; they’ve already got 11 of those 14.
New Predictions: I’m still not a believer in Baltimore. Sorry, but Bruce Chen and Sidney Ponson just don’t cut it for me. Now, if they go out and get a Jason Schmidt before the deadline, maybe I’ll change my mind. But for now, let’s make the new order…
Boston
Baltimore (wild card)
New York
Toronto
Tampa Bay
American League Central
Original Prediction | Current Standings | |
Indians | 93-69 (.574) | 37-33 (.529 – 3rd place) |
Twins | 88-74 (.543) | 38-31 (.551 – 2nd place) |
White Sox | 82-80 (.506) | 49-22 (.690 – 1st place) * |
Tigers | 73-89 (.451) | 35-33 (.515 – 4th place) |
Royals | 60-102 (.370) | 25-46 (.352 – 5th place) |
Biggest Mistake: Buying the Indians’ hype… Thinking that the White Sox didn’t have the starting pitching to contend (let alone to have the best record in the majors)…
Close Enough: Well, somehow I did place three of the five teams in the correct order, only reversing Chicago & Cleveland. KC is actually worse then I thought they’d be (and yes, I realize that I originally predicted the Royals to go 60-112, which would be pretty sad in a 162-game season. Math is not my strong suit. I used a calculator to figure out that Toronto’s 36-36 record put them at .500 so far)
New Predictions: It’s a battle for second place right now, and choosing to avoid the “instant history” that is so common in today’s sports reporting, I’ve made my predictions ignoring the current losing streaks of the Indians (3) and Twins (4):
Chicago
Minnesota
Detroit
Cleveland
Kansas City
American League West
Original Prediction | Current Standings | |
Angels | 94-68 (.580) | 42-29 (.592 – 1st place) |
A’s | 91-71 (.562) | 31-40 (.437 – 4th place) |
Mariners | 82-80 (.506) | 32-38 (.457 – 3rd place) |
Rangers | 74-88 (.457) | 37-33 (.529 – 2nd place) |
Biggest Mistake: Re-reading “Moneyball” before writing my Preseason Predictions… Completely underrating Orel Hersheiser as a pitching coach…
Close Enough: The Angels. Wow. Even losing last year’s MVP for a few weeks, they’ve managed to keep an awful nice season moving forward.
New Predictions: Anaheim’s not a guaranteed winner, yet, but Texas is really the only team with a chance to catch them. Once again, I’ve seen too much of the old Chan Ho Park & Kenny Rogers to believe that the new versions are the real deal. Especially in that ballpark…
Anaheim
Texas
Seattle
Oakland
National League East
Original Prediction | Current Standings | |
Braves | 100-62 (.617) | 38-33 (.535 – 3rd place) |
Marlins | 89-73 (.549) | 34-34 (.500 – 4th place) |
Mets | 89-73 (.549) | 34-37 (.479 – 5th place) |
Phillies | 82-80 (.506) | 39-33 (.542 –2nd place) |
Nationals | 61-101 (.377) | 42-30 (.583 – 1st place) |
Biggest Mistake: “I really just have nothing to add to the discussion of the Washington Nationals. I don’t think they’ll be very good. That about covers it.” Oh yeah; dead-on-balls accurate there, D…
Close Enough: Nothing. I couldn’t have screwed up this division any more if I’d written the predictions drunk off my ass. In fact, looking up at that “Original Prediction” column, I’m not 100% sure that I wasn’t drunk off my ass…
New Predictions: Can the Nats keep this up? Well, I still think that Atlanta takes this division in the end. Aside from Livan Hernandez, I can’t name one starting pitcher on the Washington roster, but who cares?! I’ve got Nats fever!
Washington
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
New York
National League Central
Original Prediction | Current Standings | |
Cardinals | 102-60 (.630) | 45-26 (.634 – 1st place) * |
Cubs | 86-76 (.531) | 36-34 (.514 – 2nd place) |
Brewers | 84-78 (.519) | 32-39 (.451 – 4th place) |
Reds | 82-80 (.506) | 29-43 (.403 – 6th place) |
Astros | 77-85 (.475) | 31-39 (.443 – 5th place) |
Pirates | 68-94 (.420) | 32-38 (.457 – 3rd place) |
Biggest Mistake: I think I gave the Reds a little too much credit for signing Eric Milton, Rich Aurilia, and Joe Randa, and for not dealing away Wily Mo Pena. I still think that the Brewers will end up in 3rd place, and maybe even give the Cubs a run for second.
Close Enough: Well, the Cardinals were just about a no-brainer, and the Cubs’ pitching (when/if it’s ever healthy) just about guarantees them 70-75 wins between Prior/Wood/Zambrano/Maddux. Anything they get from the “fill-in” guys is gravy…
New Predictions: Like Chicago, the Cards have this division wrapped up. Aside from a tornado wiping out Busch Stadium forcing a 3-month road-trip, I don’t see them coughing up this lead. Hell, even a 3-month road trip would probably result in a winning record…
St. Louis
Chicago (wild card)
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
Houston
Cincinnati
National League West
Original Prediction | Current Standings | |
Giants | 92-70 (.568) | 30-40 (.429 – 4th place) |
Padres | 88-74 9.543) | 40-32 (.556 – 1st place) |
Dodgers | 82-80 (.506) | 34-37 (.479 – 3rd place) |
D-Backs | 74-88 (.457) | 36-37 (.493 – 2nd place) |
Rockies | 66-96 (.407) | 22-48 (.314 – 5th place) |
Biggest Mistake: Assuming Barry Bonds wouldn’t try to hide from the harsh light of steroids. Oops.
Close Enough: “if San Francisco’s age catches up to them, the upstart Padres will be right there to take the division reins.” Yep… (Patting myself on the back…)
New Predictions: If Barry comes back at the All-Star Break, and Brian Sabean decides to hold onto guys like Jason Schmidt and Moises Alou, The Giants could make a run. Considering how weak this division is, it’s not completely out of the question. But Barry’s not coming through that door, and Schmidt (at the very least) is probably walking out:
San Diego
Los Angeles
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado
Awards & Playoffs
Original Prediction | New Prediction |
AL MVP | |
Manny Ramirez or Adrian Beltre Dark Horse: Travis Hafner | Miguel Tejada or Vlad Guerrero Dark Horse: Mark Teixeira |
NL MVP | |
Albert Pujols or Carlos Beltran Dark Horse: Adam Dunn | Albert Pujols or Derek Lee Dark Horse: Jose Guillen |
AL Cy Young (Oops…) | |
Randy Johnson Dark Horse: Rich Harden | Jon Garland or Roy Halladay Dark Horse: Matt Clement |
NL Cy Young | |
Pedro Martinez or Tim Hudson Dark Horse: Oliver Perez | Dontrelle Willis or Roger Clemens Dark Horse: Pedro Martinez |
AL Manager of the Year | |
Eric Wedge or Mike Scoscia Dark Horse: Lou Pinella | Ozzie Guillen or Lee Mazilli Dark Horse: Terry Francona |
NL Manager of the Year | |
Bobby Cox or Felipe Alou Dark Horse: Ned Yost | Frank Robinson or Bruce Bochy Dark Horse: Dusty Baker |
AL Home Run Champ | |
Alex Rodriguez or Vlad Guerrero Dark Horse: David Ortiz | Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira Dark Horse: Manny Ramirez |
NL Home Run Champ | |
Albert Pujols or Carlos Delgado Dark Horse: Barry Bonds | Adam Dunn or Derek Lee Dark Horse: Albert Pujols |
I still say the Red Sox take the AL Pennant, now going through the White Sox and Angels. But the National League looks a little different than it did in February. St. Louis to the Series, after eliminating San Diego and then Chicago.
Poor Chicagoans. Looks like they could have two teams ousted in the LCS this year…
WORLD SERIES
Not quite as bad as last year, but let’s go with….
Boston over St. Louis (6 games)
Yeah. I think that works for me…
Quick Thoughts while making a packing list for the WSOP in 13 days…
n Like I said, Spurs in 7… J
n Guess this means I’ll actually have to watch the basketball game tonight. The Red Sox are on a travel day, there’s no hockey, and it’s Thursday night – what the hell else am I supposed to watch?
n Which reminds me… is it football season yet?
n Boy, that Indians bandwagon that was making stops all over the city looks like if blew four flats this week, huh? (I wish you could all see the grin on my face as I type that)
n Swear to God – I thought that NESN was playing a late April-fool’s joke on their viewers on Tuesday as they kept flashing scores on the screen, and the Yankees went from down 10-2 to up 20-11 in the course of an hour. When they finally showed the highlights, I mean, wow. I think I could have hit a couple out off of Tampa’s pitchers that night…
n Two links for today before I end this…
o http://budlight.whipnet.com - Very possibly the greatest website of all time. You can thank me later…
o http://www.paradisepoker.com/promotions/2005/wild_las_vegas - just added to the list of “celebrities” hosting my WSOP pre-party at The Palms, it’s America’s favorite pseudo-celebrities, Mr. & Mrs. “Boston” Rob Mariano! Boy, I’m even more excited now! Forget the former Playmate of the Year, or the ex-supermodel turned TV Show host who were the original hosts; I can’t wait to go hang out with Boston Rob, a guy who I remember sitting on a couch with as he ate Cheerios, drank beers, and watched “Baseball Tonight” waiting for the party to start. I swear he’s got a horseshoe shoved about 6-inches deep in his ass…
Quote of the Week:
If you’re not a golfer and/or a child of the 80’s, you might not find this as funny as my friend Jay and I did. Oh well…
While trying to get a read on Jay’s 25-foot par putt on the 6th green at a local golf course last weekend:
Me: “So what do you think it’s gonna do?”
Jay: “Um, move. A lot”
Me: “Looks like it’s uphill, downhill, then left and then back right. It’s like the Nintendo cheat code of putts.”
Jay: (unable to putt for a minute from the laughing)
Me: (thinking to myself) “Well, my work is done…”
posted by Big D @ 1:15 PM
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