2008 NFL Preview - Post 4
Today, it’s the final installment in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. Another beautiful day here in Southern New England – started with 18 holes and a good solid lunch, and now the final NFL Preview Post before tomorrow’s post with SpartyAndFriends.
So let’s finish it up – today, the AFC South & East
AFC SOUTH
2007 Standings
Indianapolis (13-3)
Jacksonville (11-5)
Tennessee (10-6)
Houston (8-8)
Much like the Eagles in 2007, the Houston Texans were a victim of circumstance last year. They played well enough to win half of their games, but got stuck in a division with three playoff teams. Division play accounted for five of their eight losses, with the other three coming to the Chargers – runners up in the AFC title game – the Browns, who just missed the playoffs, and the Falcons; really no excuse for the loss to the Falcons. But of their eight wins, only two came against teams above .500 – Week 14 at home against Tampa Bay, and Week 17 blowout at home against a Jacksonville team resting their starters. So are they a good team in an unlucky divisional situation? Or are they really a middle of the road, 8-8 type team that might get a few breaks and knock off the actual contenders here and there? A full, healthy season out of Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Ahman Green (or Steve Slaton… actually, Slaton’s probably the better option at this point) will give us the answer. They open the year with four of five games against last year’s playoff teams – three on the road. That’s the type of run that wears a team down and exposes major flaws. After that, they have a fairly soft schedule, and might be able to string together a couple wins. Prediction: 7-9
I honestly believe the Tennessee Titans were a fluke last season. They snuck in a win in Week 1 against the Jaguars, then didn’t beat an above .500 team until Week 17 when they still needed to win for a playoff berth, but the Colts were already guaranteed the #2 seed. Vince Young had two different games last year in which he threw for under 80 yards (both wins, somehow) and 10 games under 200 yards passing. LenDale White hasn’t exactly asserted himself as anything more than a bruising goal line or short yardage back, the kind of guy who pushes the middle of the pile three or four yards at a time. The defense is still dominant, allowing under 300 points last season (297, four points less than they scored), but among the eight playoff teams only one other AFC team allowed more – Jacksonville at 304 – and all three entrants from the NFC East. This year’s schedule is very, very kind to them with only two road games against 2007 playoff teams – both NFC South rivals – and only two playoff team from out of their division; Green Bay and Pittsburgh come to town in Weeks 9 and 16 respectively. Fluke or not, they can probably put together another 10 win season and maybe sneak into the playoffs again. Prediction: 10-6
Jacksonville struck me as a bit of a streaky team last season. They had three separate three-game winning streaks during the year, punctuated with a 49-11 pasting of the Raiders in Week 16. David Garrard looks like the real deal as an NFL Quarterback he’s they type of player that will keep you in games, minimize mistakes and do damage control when necessary, and he might even make a big play or three every week to seal a victory. This year, by the grace of the scheduling gods they get four virtual freebies with the AFC & NFC North divisions – though all four (Chicago, Cincy, Detroit & Baltimore) are road games. They get the four tough teams from those divisions right at home in Northern Florida, a situation that can only help their numbers. Outside of those eight and their six division games, they get Denver & Buffalo – both should be wins. This could be a big year in Jacksonville. Wonder what that’ll be like… Prediction: 13-3
Indianapolis lucked out early this year. Not only do they get to christen a brand new stadium, but their first two games (when Peyton Manning may or may not be able to play) are against teams that they should be able to handle with Jim Sorgi under center; Chicago & Minnesota. Another beneficiary of this year’s North/South divisional battles, they unfortunately have to travel to all four of the other division’s contenders while getting the four relative cupcakes in Indy. Throw in the yearly rivalry game with New England (at home) and the new budding rivalry game with San Diego (in SoCal) and the Colts have a pretty rough schedule overall. If Manning and/or Marvin Harrison aren’t completely recovered from knee problems, this could be a long year for the Colts. But I’m betting they’ll both be at least at their averages, which is pretty damned good compared to everyone else. Prediction: 12-4 (That’s right – this is the year Indy doesn’t control the AFC South)
AFC EAST
2007 Standings
New England (16-0)
Buffalo (7-9)
New York Jets (4-12)
Miami (1-15)
Miami could be a shock this year. Let’s face it – they’re not going to get worse. But they imported Chad Pennington to be a competent, if not stunning quarterback and run a system. They have a rejuvenated Ricky Williams to pair with Ronnie Brown in the backfield once Brown is healthy. They overhauled the defense and got younger all over the place, which may or may not be a good thing. And they revamped the coaching staff and administration, bringing the Big Tuna down to Marlin country. They’re not going to win 10 games and sneak into the playoffs – let’s be serious. But they could easily sneak out five or six games and regain a modicum of respectability. Prediction: 5-11
For all the noise Buffalo seems to make either in the draft or free agency every year, they haven’t really contended in over half a decade. In this year’s draft they again took a cornerback off the board about ten spots too high in the first round rather than trading down and getting the same player plus some picks, and got a wide receiver in the second who’s profile says he “doesn’t make crisp cuts… needs to work on route running… going to have a tough time separating from man coverage…” Wow – what a draft day steal! Did I mention their big free agent acquisition this year was Kawika Mitchell from the Giants? Or that they lost both a starting wide receiver and cornerback to division rival New England? Or that their schedule has them playing New England twice after the bye week, plus San Diego, Jacksonville and Cleveland, and those are just the games they should lose? Prediction: 6-10
Now, to the Brett Favre portion of this NFL Preview… Listen, the Jets made a move that was necessary. They settled their quarterback controversy for at least this season and possibly one or two more in the future. They brought in an all-time great quarterback and handed him the keys to the city (though, not literally; not yet at least). But last time I checked, Brett can’t play defense and help slow up the 200 passing and 135 rushing yards the Jets allowed per game. He can’t play runningback to boost the 100 rushing yards per game, though he might have to use his legs and scramble a little behind that line. He can only help solve some of the offensive problems the Jets suffered through in ’07 (268 points scored is embarrassing, even if it was second in the division). I’ll admit – as soon as I head the news on the trade I tried to drop some money on the Jets’ Over/Under for wins this year which was still at 4.5 (it moved to 7.5 before I could get it done which is right in the middle of where I think they’ll be… damnit). This team was a playoff team in 2006, but that 10-6 season kind of came out of left field after three straight years of four, four and six wins. They’ll be better. But don’t expect any “Broadway” repeats this year. Prediction: 7-9 (and I’m being generous because of their out-of-division schedule… they could win four or they could win ten. I’m shooting for the middle)
Finally, my beloved New England Patriots. I mistakenly thought early season injuries and suspensions would cost them a chance at a perfect season in 2007; little did I know it would be a miraculous catch (and three uncalled holding penalties on the play) coupled with one of the worst attempts at pass coverage I have ever seen at the end of the year that cost them history. I’d love to play the “This year, they’re reinvigorated” card here, make something up about them being pissed to the point of being maniacal, stopping at nothing to reach perfection. But I don’t see it happening. Don’t get me wrong – they’re still the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl, and rightfully so. But 19-0? Don’t see it. They’ll lose one somewhere, maybe a flukey game like Week 13 last year in Baltimore; every bounce, every call, everything will fall the wrong way. Maybe it will be against a terrible opponent like the Ravens (or this year, the Broncos or Rams. That’s my guess). Maybe it’ll be to a comparable team like the Colts or Steelers where everyone just watches it and says “nope, not winning this one”. Might even happen twice. But I think it’ll come somewhere. And they’ll be better for it. Prediction: 14-2
So that’s it for this year’s NFL preview. As always, I’m ecstatic if I get 50% of the teams within one game – either way – of their actual final records, though last year I only got 12 of 32 within that one game. And we won’t discuss what I wrote about the Giants or the Jaguars, among others, in 2007. So here’s hoping to less mistakes than last year. How’s that for a rallying cry?
See you on Friday afternoon over at SpartyAndFriends, and every week during the season you can find the weekly picks over there with a recap post here on Mondays or Tuesdays.
Lata.
Labels: 2008, AFC, East, NFL, Preview, South
2008 NFL Preview - Post 2
Today, it’s part two in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. It’s a beautiful day – sun’s shining, birds are chirping, and Season 4 of The Wire is in the DVD Player ready to go.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s continue – today, the NFC North & East
NFC NORTH
2007 Standings
Green Bay (13-3)
Minnesota (8-8)
Detroit (7-9)
Chicago (7-9)
One name dominates this division in 2008. And since he’s no longer in the NFC North, it’s not worth even bringing him up again until I have to. Which should be right about…
Brett Favre. There. I said it. He’s gone, and Green Bay fans (not to mention the team) will have to deal with that reality. The Packers can go one of two ways this season, they can either rally behind Aaron Rodgers and try to repeat last year’s success, or they can pack it in and use any number of excuses up to and including the loss of an icon, the new and more difficult first place schedule, etc etc etc. Look – Aaron Rodgers was a very highly touted first round quarterback a couple years ago. Brett Favre had a career year in 2007, but he was not the whole team. A serviceable QB should be able to take what is essentially the same team and lead them to about 10 or 11 wins. In the NFC North, that should be good enough for a Wild Card berth, at the very least. Prediction: 11-5
Detroit is still in a sorry state. They had another below average draft, and added absolutely nothing through free agency. But look at the list of free agents they had come off the books after the 2007 season. They shed twenty-four contracts! That’s half a team! How did they not improve through free agency? More importantly, how is Matt Millen still employed? Has anybody even seen William Clay Ford family alive in the past five years? I know it’s an old line to fall back on, but seriously, how does this guy keep his job every year? I suppose maybe Ford is falling back to the old-time sports administration, allowing a GM ten to fifteen years to fix the problems of the team. I suppose loyalty is nice, but it just doesn’t work in today’s sports world. Prediction: 5-11
The Bears had two major weaknesses this offseason – offense and defense. And that’s being generous. Somehow, they almost managed a .500 season with an aging defense and the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. They addressed the need at runningback by cutting ties with Cedric Benson and adding Matt Forte through the draft. Forte has had a pretty good preseason, but he can’t carry the offense by himself. Since the Bears are pretty much flipping a coin between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton from now through the beginning of the season, they are going to need to rely on their defense – yet again – to keep the team in games. They only signed two free agents – Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd – and kept Lance Briggs in Chicago for a handful more years, but they had a defense heavy draft. If any of those players can step up quickly, the Bears might be able to return to the playoffs in a weak NFC. But more than likely, they’ll be stuck at the bottom of the North barrel again. Prediction: 4-12
Finally, Minnesota. They’ve been the trendy pick to win the NFC before, and this year is no different. But until I see something, anything, to make me believe that Tarvaris Jackson can be a competent NFL quarterback, I won’t believe they’re much better than a mediocre team. Adrian Peterson was a revelation at runningback last year until a knee injury derailed his season. But can he repeat the same numbers this year? The Vikings biggest strength is their defense. They’ve turned into the 2005 Bears and the 2000 Ravens – Quarterback questions, an above average runningback, and a dominant defense. They could be the Super Bowl Champs. They could be 8-8 again. I’m leaning towards a Wild Card berth and just above mediocre. Prediction: 9-7
NFC East
2007 Standings
Dallas (13-3)
NY Giants (10-6)
Washington (9-7)
Philadelphia (8-8)
Listen, I know the Giants won the Super Bowl. I’ve come to terms with it. I’m not happy about it, but I’ve learned to deal with it. They went on a magical run for a month last winter, they caught every break, they made every big play, and they won it all. And after saying all that… I still don’t think they have the horses to win this division. Not that they’ll need to – I think they proved that back in February. Eli Manning finally matured into the quarterback the Giants thought they were getting four years ago. Brandon Jacobs proved that you don’t need lightning for thunder to be effective (though Ahmad Bradshaw was a nice surprise). And the defensive line was dominant for most of the year. With only two major subtractions from the team (Jeremy Shockey traded to New Orleans and Michael Strahan retired), the Giants should be primed to at least return to the playoffs, if not make another run deep into the postseason. Prediction: 10-6 (I know… it’s boring but it feels about right)
Dallas is still the top dog in this division. They’ve got the offense, they’ve got the defense. They’ve got talent all over the field, and they’ve got to be pissed about how their year ended in 2007. They’ve got absolutely no reason to lose this division, or to not advance to at least the NFC Title Game. They lost only Julius Jones and Jacques Reeves, and added Zach Thomas in free agency. Not to mention adding Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins early in the draft. They should be able to put up at least 12 wins, probably more. They have five tough games total through the season, and no tougher road trips than St. Louis following Arizona in mid-October. This looks like a good year for them. Prediction: 14-2
Washington made a nice run last year, even managing a playoff berth (though I have no idea how). But without a first round draft pick, and virtually no free agent imports or losses, the only real change for the ‘Skins was bringing in Jason Taylor who may or may not still have enough in the tank to rejuvenate their defensive line. This year, that probably won’t be enough. Jason Campbell is another quarterback on a short leash trying to prove that he still belongs in this league. They don’t have the guns to stick around all year long, on offense or defense. Prediction: 7-9
Philadelphia is kind of getting caught on the short end of the stick here. They’ve still got a top 15 QB in Donovan McNabb. Brian Westbrook is one of the all around best runningbacks in the NFL. They’ve got the defense to contend every year. But there’s something holding them back. Aside from injuries, I can’t tell you what it is. I have absolutely no idea how they lost 8 games while only allowing a total of 300 points all year. I think they were nothing more than a victim of circumstance in their division; 8-8 in a division with three playoff teams is just plain unlucky. This year, they might sneak in a Wild Card berth, but most likely they’ll be on the outside looking in again. Prediction: 9-7
Labels: 2008, East, NFC, NFL, North, Preview
2007 NFL Preview - Part III
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go!
Today, the AFC South, North, and East. Click here for Part I of the Preview: NFC West & North – and click here for Part II: NFC South & East, and AFC West. Also a programming note; with the NFL season kicking off on Thursday, and with my actual day job kicking into high gear with our very own Opening Day on Tuesday, I probably won’t have a ton of time this week for my weekly NFL picks. I will probably post on Wednesday for Thursday’s Indy/New Orleans game, then come back on Friday for the weekend & Monday Night Football picks.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Tennessee Titans: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Houston Texans: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
Jacksonville Jaguars: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
This division has belonged to the Colts for far too long. There’s no reason that another team (*cough* Titans *cough*) couldn’t move up and take advantage of all of Indy’s losses this offseason. But the fact remains, Indy is still the class of the AFC South, and they’ve got the rings to prove it. (Note: I made a decision last week – I refuse to recognize the Colts’ Super Bowl victory last February. The guy who could have easily been the Super Bowl MVP, Dominic Rhodes, was found to be on PEDs a couple weeks later. He kinda had a big game in Miami (21 carries for 113 yards)… wonder if the steroids/supplements helped at all?)
Tennessee looks to be the team that has the best chance to build off of last season. They had an outside shot at the playoffs before the final week of the season in ’06, and with another year of experience Vince Young can only get better. As long as he avoids the Madden Curse. They could easily put it together and push the Colts. And they probably will make a good run towards a Wild Card spot. The only thing that scares me is the relative uncertainty of their backfield situation.
Houston made a couple major changes this offseason, both on the offensive side of the ball, and both likely to pay dividends almost immediately. Matt Schaub was wasting away on the Falcons’ bench behind Michael Vick; now he gets the chance to run a team for a full season. And after Domanick Davis’ lost season to injury in ’06, the running game suffered through a handful of starting running backs. The addition of Ahman Green could revitalize the Texans’ offense, though he isn’t making fans forget passing up Reggie Bush or Vince Young anytime soon…
(EDIT: This was completely rewritten after the Jags’ released Byron Leftwich this past weekend. I still can’t figure that move out…) Now that Jacksonville is counting on David Garrard to run the show… well… I’m not counting on much out of them this year. Not that I’m anti-Garrard – the guy can probably play, and can definitely move around well enough to generate some offense on his own. He’s about 70% the offensive threat that Vince Young is. The problem is the timing – the team has been working under the assumption that Byron Leftwich was their starter, and then all of a sudden, he’s not only not their starter, but he’s not even on the team. Seems a little sudden to me, is all. Maybe they’ll win 10. Maybe they’ll have the #1 overall pick in ’08. I’m leaning a little more toward the latter.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: ’06 Record (13-6), ’07 Prediction (14-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
Cincinnati Bengals: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
Cleveland Browns: ’06 Record (4-12), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Baltimore did nothing to get worse this offseason, and they got much, much better by bringing in Willis McGahee from the Buffalo Bills. If he doesn’t run for 1500 and 15+ TDs this season behind that line, I’ll be completely stunned. But unfortunately, they still haven’t addressed a nagging need at quarterback – Steve McNair isn’t getting any younger, and he was barely in the top half of NFL QBs last season in QB Rating (14th of 32 with a rating of 82.5). But the defense is still dominant – a ridiculous 12.6 points allowed per game last season. Maybe they don’t need a QB after all…
In much the same way that people forget just how good the Eagles were before their QB got injured, the Steelers actually won a Super Bowl before their QB got injured. And yes, I freely admit that I’ve heard too much about the Steelers in the past four months. But the fact remains that even with a new coaching staff, the Steelers still have a very good young QB, a good running back, some pretty decent receivers, and a defense that has consistently been hard to score on. If they don’t at least push the Ravens for the division, they should be in the Wild Card hunt by late November.
The Bengals, much like the Ravens, did nothing to get worse in the offseason. Unfortunately, they did little to get better. They are without a very big deep threat in the passing game for the first half of the season while Chris Henry serves a suspension. And their defense couldn’t have more holes in it if they played with only nine on the field. For as good a QB as Carson Palmer is, he can’t fix all the problems this team has. They just don’t seem like the team that shocked the NFL a couple years back.
The Browns did a great job to start fixing their offensive ineptitude from the past few years. Of course, Brady Quinn held out of camp like an idiot, and let’s face it – the Browns were building for the future. The future is not now. They have holes at running back, wide receiver, and just about every position on defense. They’ve got a QB locked up for awhile, and the laid the cornerstone for a very good offensive line in Joe Thomas. Now they need to work on the rest of it.
AFC East
New England: ’06 Record (12-4), ’07 Prediction (13-3)
Buffalo Bills: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
New York Jets: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
Miami Dolphins: ’06 Record (6-10), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Last season, the Jets shocked just about everyone not wearing a green fire helmet when they managed to win 10 games with a new head coach, no defined running game, and a questionable situation with quarterback injuries. This year, they’re not sneaking up on anybody – adding Thomas Jones was a great move, and letting him split carries with Leon Washington should keep both of them fresh throughout the year. But the fact remains – Chad Pennington has a questionable injury history, and the NY Media seems to love pushing Kellen Clemens into the starter’s role. Not to mention that they’ll be playing a 2nd place schedule. They probably overachieved just a little last year, and should come back to Earth this season.
Buffalo is my surprise team this season – their defense has been pretty solid the past few seasons, and as much as people love to rip on him, JP Losman is quietly turning into a pretty good quarterback. They had to trade away Willis McGahee for future salary cap reasons, but grabbing Marshawn Lynch in the draft this year should ensure them a solid running game for the next few seasons. Or until Lynch starts complaining about his salary…
The Dolphins fixed their most pressing need by bringing in a proven veteran QB in Trent Green, and shipping out Daunte Culpepper. Problem is, they may have been counting on Ricky Williams’ return after his yearlong exile to Canada. Since there’s pretty much no chance he ever plays in the NFL again, they are relying on Ronnie Brown (and now Jesse Chatman?) and some type of renaissance from Chris Chambers & Marty Booker. At least the defense is still fearsome, but even they are getting older.
And finally, we come to my Patriots. (EDIT: The rest of this was rewritten after this weekend’s news that Rodney Harrison will be suspended four games and Richard Seymour has been placed on the PUP list until Week 6, and today’s cutting of Reche Caldwell. All of which blow big time.) They were the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl after completely rebuilding their offense, adding three wide receivers and a running back to a team that needed nothing more than to convert a short third down to advance to (and probably win) their fourth Super Bowl in six years. Ironic then, that the loss of two crucial members of their defense could be what costs them in the end. Some in the media had said The Patriots had a legitimate shot at a 16-0 season this year, if they could get past San Diego in Week 2, and the Colts just before the bye week in November. As it is, they shouldn’t have trouble scoring points. But for at least the first four to six weeks, they might not be able to stop any high octane offenses. Like San Diego. Or Cincinnati in Week 4. Or maybe even Dallas in Week 6. But once they’re healthy (if they’re all healthy at once), there might not be another loss on the schedule.
All the way through February.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, AFC, East, NFL, North, Preview, South
2007 NFL Preview - Part II
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard NFL breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… eight divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into a few separate posts.
So… uh… here we go!
Today, the NFC South & East, and AFC West (I’m a writin’ fool!). Click here for Part I of the Preview – NFC West & North.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Carolina Panthers: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ’06 Record (4-12), ’07 Prediction (6-10)
Atlanta Falcons: ’06 Record (7-9), ’07 Prediction (4-12)
Let’s be honest here guys – the Falcons and Michael Vick (and to a lesser extent, Joey Harrington) are the story of this division this season, if not the NFL itself. Everything they do will be chronicled – every loss will be met with “Wonder how it would have turned out with Vick on the field”, every win will bring about talk of a lost season. The thing is, if the team uses the whole Vick situation as motivation, they could really come together and maybe even make a run at the division.
For as great a story as the Saints were last season, they got a lot of bounces in their favor, not to mention at least two or three wins on emotion alone. Their defense played ridiculously far above their heads last season (in ’04 & ’05 they ranked 14th of 16 in the NFC in points allowed – in ’06: 3rd), but the offense is legit. I think they give back a game, maybe two, but still play well enough within the division to make the postseason.
Carolina is a complete enigma. Every season for the past three, I’ve put far too much stock in their defense, and given Jake Delhomme way too much credit. The problem is, their defensive stars can’t stay together on the field long enough to stop any of the league’s better offenses. And even though DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams are a solid backfield tandem (not to mention the best wide receiver in the NFL in Steve Smith), Delhomme isn’t consistent enough to give them a QB threat. And honestly, nobody’s screaming for David Carr to get a start anytime soon…
Finally, Tampa Bay. The fact that their QB options this season consist of a 37 year old playing for his fifth team in as many years, and a 32-year old who retired rather than have to play for the team tells you everything you need to know about the Bucs right now. Their defense really dropped off last year, which was probably more a product of their offensive ineptitude being unable to give the defense a breather on the sidelines between possessions. They’re not scaring anyone this year, though Cadillac Williams might return to his early ’05 form…
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: ’06 Record (10-6), ’07 Prediction (11-5)
Washington Redskins: ’06 Record (5-11), ’07 Prediction (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (8-8)
New York Giants: ’06 Record (8-8), ’07 Prediction (5-11)
People seem to forget that the Eagles managed to go 10-6 and win a playoff game without their franchise QB under center after Week 10. They also managed to go 5-2 to wrap up the season. With Donovan McNabb back (and by all accounts, healthy) there’s no reason to think they can’t at least duplicate those 10 wins in 2007. The defense is still playing at a high level, even with the front office’s decision to cut Jeremiah Trotter last week. And Brian Westbrook continues to produce just about every time he touches the ball. If they can avoid major injuries, they should be a serious threat to the Bears’ NFC supremacy.
The Redskins could be the “surprise” team of ’08 (they’re 20/1 to win the NFC at Bodog.com right now, and 40/1 to win it all). They lost Clinton Portis for most of last season, and Jason Campbell didn’t get a start until Week 11 (they went 5-2 with him under center in the final seven games). Their defense can still give people problems – Sean Taylor is one of the most underrated safeties in the NFL – and in a weak conference, a jump to 9-7 might be enough to get them into the postseason.
I’m not a big fan of the Cowboys’ chances this season. Wade Phillips’ “Let ‘em play” style just seems like it’s going to backfire by about Week 9 or so. I just foresee Terrell Owens finally snapping with the lack of discipline, and I have no idea just how far he’s going to go. There’s probably a 5% chance that he commits homicide on the sidelines this year after Romo misses him on a Go route. If they can hold it together though, Dallas’ defense is still one of the better ones in the league. I just don’t know how much I trust Tony Romo and the Barber/Jones running back combo platter.
And finally, the Giants. I’m trying my hardest not to laugh while writing this part of the preview. I have absolutely zero hope for the Giants to be contenders this season – their offense wasn’t that good last season, and they lost their #1 running back. Their defense wasn’t that good last season, and it got worse this year losing Michael Strahan, Lavar Arrington, and roughly 2/3 of their starting defensive backfield in one preseason game already. Needless to say, they’re staring a top-10 draft pick straight in the face.
AFC West
San Diego: ’06 Record (14-2), ’07 Prediction (12-4)
Denver Broncos: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (10-6)
Kansas City: ’06 Record (9-7), ’07 Prediction (7-9)
Oakland Raiders: ’06 Record (2-14), ’07 Prediction (4-12)
The Chargers were the class of the NFL during the ’06 regular season, but completely imploded in their first round playoff game. I remember that game well, mostly because my fingers nearly imploded while live blogging the game from a hotel in Orlando, Florida (here’s Part I, here’s Part II. And just for the hell of it, the earlier live blog of the NFC playoff games). As for this season, the downgrade from an offensive minded coach who turtles in the playoffs to a turtle minded coach who gets defensive in the playoffs (wow my head hurts) is probably going to cost them a game or two. Not to mention that LaDanian Tomlinson probably won them at least one game by himself last year – there is no way in hell he repeats the numbers he put up in ’06.
Denver kind of falls into the second spot in this division by default. They have a promising quarterback who, barring injuries, will get a full season to prove why the Broncos traded up to draft him a couple seasons ago. And, as is par for the course, the Broncos have a solid multi-headed monster in the backfield, starting with Travis Henry and Mike Bell, and the receiving corps is still solid all around. Not to mention they probably have the best defensive backfield in the league with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly. It probably isn’t enough to overtake the Chargers, but it should be enough to get them into the playoffs.
The Chiefs aren’t nearly the team they were last season, and last season they barely limped into the playoffs anyway before getting smoked by the Colts in the first round. While all the talk is about Larry Johnson’s workload, the focus should be on a depleted offensive line guarding Damon Huard, the newly minted starting quarterback. Not to mention the Chiefs haven’t fielded anything better than a middle of the road defense in a few years (literally – they were 9th of 16 AFC teams in three major defensive categories last season; yards per game, rushing yards per game and points allowed, and 11th in passing yards allowed). They’re a middle of the pack team that caught a good run and a good schedule in ’06 – not this year.
And then, there are the Raiders. A team so inept that their #1 pick – the #1 overall draft pick last year – would rather sit a season by making outrageous contract demands than play for them. A team that looks to be relying on a “mobile” QB coming off of two major knee surgeries in the same season, on the same knee. A team whose “Just Win, Baby!” mantra gets more and more laughable every year. But hey – at least the statistics said they had an above average defense last season. Of course, that’s probably because their offense averaged a ridiculous 10.5 points per game in ’06 – once teams scored twice, they eased off the accelerator knowing they probably didn’t need to do much more for the W. I give them a couple more wins this season, though it’s more out of pity than anything else.
Labels: 2007, AFC, East, NFC, NFL, Preview, South, West
2007 MLB Preview - American League East
American League East
Boston Red Sox: One year after they completely self-destructed in a mid-summer homestand against the Yankees, the Red Sox have completed the metamorphosis from “Moneyball team with slightly more assets” into “World Dominating Tyrannical Baseball Force”.
Their projected payroll in ’07 is $160M. That’s before any bonus clauses or mid-season acquisitions are factored in. They managed to give out $170M in contracts this offseason, not to mention the $51.1M they spent just for the right to give Daisuke Matsusaka another $52M. Or the money they will eventually (if they ever come to their senses) pay to Curt Schilling for his one or two year extension.
So, from a baseball perspective, what does it all mean? Well, for starters, it means they’ve got one of the most fearsome lineups in all of baseball, and they have the single best rotation in the American League, if not the entire major leagues. The only weak spot in their 1-9 is towards the bottom of the order, where Dustin Pedroia & Coco Crisp could easily slip into “automatic out” status as the season wears on. But 1-7, the lineup is nasty: Lugo, Youkilis, Ortiz, Manny, Drew, Lowell, Varitek, Crisp, Pedroia. Sure, there isn’t a whole lot of opportunity to play small ball with that order (I don’t see anyone from the 2-hole down to the 8 that will be stealing too many bases), but when you’ve got potentially six 20-homer guys, who needs to manufacture runs?
(EDIT: After writing this preview, Papelbon was moved back into the closer’s role. The rest of this team preview has been re-written).
The pitching was already solid going in to Spring Training, with potentially four 15-game winners in the rotation. The biggest question was at closer, where the Sox had initially planned to go with a pu-pu platter of Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, Brendan Donnelly and Julian Tavarez in the 9th inning. Luckily, someone finally woke up and decided to put Jonathon Papelbon back into the closer’s role, moving Kyle Snyder, Tavarez & Pineiro into the 5th starter/spot starter slot. It’s a good move, and one that will pay dividends in more ways than one.
The rotation of Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett and Wakefield should be able to hold it’s own. Matt Clement, though still months away from a healthy return, might be effective as a 5th starter (because we all know he was pretty useless as a #2 or #3). The biggest hole on the mound was filled by Papelbon’s move to the bullpen. Honestly, aside from injuries slowing them down, I don’t see any way this team doesn’t win 90+.
But will it be enough?
Biggest subplot this season?
It’s Boston – everything’s a “subplot”. Schilling’s contract, Manny’s eBay adventures, Drew’s limp-wristed attempts to be a professional athlete, Papelbon’s shoulder, Dice-K’s transition to American baseball… you name it, it will be blown out of proportion by the media & fans.
Best player you should start looking out for?
The Red Sox have, for the most part, moved away from the original stated goal of cultivating young players through the farm system to run a true Moneyball style of baseball team. Instead, they cultivate young players to use as trade bait. But look out for David Murphy & Jacoby Ellsbury when/if they make an appearance this year. And if Coco Crisp can’t produce in this lineup, Ellsbury might be in Fenway sooner than anyone thinks.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Sadly, the biggest roadblock could be themselves. The thing that made the 2004 team so good was their chemistry as well as their talent. Just about every person in the clubhouse got along with one another and the team rode their friendships all the way to the World Series. With this current version of the team, there are so many egos and preferential treatment situations that it could quickly devolve into a “25 guys, 25 cabs” situation. Again.
New York Yankees: There is no team with a more deadly batting order than this incarnation of the New York Yankees. Top to bottom, there isn’t an easy out in the lineup. And, even more amazing, they will at least have eight patient hitters in the order every night. Not too many starters are going to last past the 6th inning against this team.
Look at how it shakes out right now: Jeter/Damon/Abreu/A-Rod/Giambi/Matsui/Cano/Posada, and whoever gets plugged in at first base nightly – most likely Doug Mientkiewicz.
How many other teams could trade away a first ballot Hall-of-Famer in Randy Johnson, and another top tier player (and borderline Hall-of-Famer) in Gary Sheffield and still be penciled in for at least 90-wins?
The biggest question for this team will be in the rotation. Chien-Ming Wang should be the unquestioned staff ace, but more than likely the Opening Day role will fall to Mike Mussina, who just signed a 2-year, $23M extension. The Yanks brought back old friend Andy Petitte with a $16M one-year contract, but otherwise had a surprisingly quiet hot-stove signing season. Or, at least as quiet as it can be when you have a $200M+ payroll…
Biggest subplot this season?
When will Carl Pavano actually see a pitcher’s mound? Since signing his 4yr/$32M conract two seasons ago, Pavano has pitched in only 17 Major League games, and none in the last 21 months. Not exactly earning that signing bonus. Some sources say he’ll be the Opening Day starter… I have no idea how that’s possible, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Much like Boston, the Yankees don’t have too many “unheralded” young studs coming out of the farm system anymore. But among the lesser known players on their roster, new Japanese import Kei Igawa seems to have the most “unknown upside”. He could either end up as a great addition to the pitching staff, or as a $20M reactionary signing after the Red Soc got Matsuzaka
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Well, let’s see. Age. Injuries. A-Rod’s fragile psyche. Giambi’s, uh, “resurgence”. No one to step into the rotation when Mussina, Pavano & Petitte inevitably break down. Should I go on?
Toronto Blue Jays: Absolutely, the single biggest dark horse in the American League. Last season, they leapt over the Red Sox to grab second place in the division, 6 games over .500, but still 10 games behind the Yankees.
This year, deciding they had already built a solid pitching staff if everyone is healthy, the Jays decided to once again upgrade their offense by adding Frank Thomas with a 2yr/$18M contract. The Big Hurt joins a lineup that already featured Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus & Lyle Overbay, not to mention some decent OBP guys at the top of the lineup in Alex Rios and Aaron Hill (both with a .349 OBP last season).
The rotation, sporting another perennial Cy Young favorite in Roy Halladay, and the oft-injured but potential ace in the making AJ Burnett, added three role players in Tomo Ohka, John Thompson, and Victor Zambrano (he of the fantastic Zambrano for Scott Kazmir, straight up trade…), all of them to short money deals. And of course, they have one of the three best closers in the league waiting in the bullpen for the 9th in BJ Ryan.
All around, they have one of the most solid team in the majors. Unfortunately for them, they are stuck in the same division with two teams who have no qualms about pushing all their chips into the pot every season.
Biggest subplot this season?
The Blue Jays aren’t the Yankees, and they aren’t the Red Sox. What they are is a well run, very well coached group of guys who needs to remember that they are built to win in the long term, and they need to take advantage of other teams’ mistakes. If they can steal 3-5 games this year that they aren’t supposed to win, they can be right in the division race.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Aaron Hill & Alex Rios are both guys who can fly under the radar, but will also both likely score 100 runs in that lineup. And then of course, there’s Lyle Overbay, another player in the Brandon Inge mold – he’s never going to blow you away with his numbers, but you can see a steady uptick in his production every season over the last three.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
AJ Burnett. The Jays are relying on him to become at least the #2 starter they’ve been looking for behind Doc Halladay. Unfortunately, he was sidelined by shoulder troubles last season, and has made only 76 starts over the past four years, an average of 19 per season. The Jays need a full year out of him, whether good or bad, if they hope to be competitive all year.
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles went on something of a spending spree this offseason, though nothing like a few years back when they broke the bank for Miguel Tejada & Javy Lopez. This year, they doled out a little over $80M in guaranteed contracts to 12 players, including resigning three of their own free agents.
Unfortunately, they signed mostly bit players and fill-in type guys, only really bringing in one upper level player (Aubrey Huff, 3yr/$20M), and no one under the age of 28.
Baltimore has so many problems that one offseason of spending isn’t even about to touch them. They need wholesale changes, and they need to start right at the top. Peter Angelos has driven this team into the ground in the past ten years, treating the team as nothing more than his own personal piggy bank, drawing untold sums of money from the other Major League Teams in revenue sharing money, not to mention his blatant extortion of the other owners over the Nationals’ relocation to Washington DC.
However, short of forcing Angelos to sell the team (there’s no way he would ever give it up freely), Orioles fans will have to suffer through another losing season. Shame too, as they’ve finally developed some pretty decent talent in their system, but will have to watch them go to waste.
Guys like Erik Bedard, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and Adam Loewen, have all come along in the past couple of years. Enjoy them now, Orioles fans, because they’ll all be wearing other teams’ hats in the coming years.
Biggest subplot this season?
Fans’ frustrations. Last season, Orioles fans attempted to organize mass walkouts from Camden Yards on multiple occasions to show their displeasure with the team. Here’s the problem with that strategy – if fans don’t support this team, management says “why should we spend more – the fans don’t care”. If fans sell out the park, buy all the merchandise and cheer wildly at every game, win or lose, management says “why should we spend more – the fans are already showing up when the team stinks! We’re not going to sell any more tickets – we’d just be losing money”. It’s a no-win for the fans, and it’s a shame.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Nick Markakis. The 23-year old right fielder was probably brought up one year too early last season, but he certainly didn’t suffer from it. His .291/16/62 stat line shows room for improvement, and with any type of support in the lineup, he should continue to impress.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
After Erik Bedard, there is nothing in that rotation. #2 starter Kris Benson will most likely miss the entire season with a should surgery, so the next option becomes Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera managed a stellar 9-10 record last season, and once walked six Red Sox in one inning. Not exactly a claim to fame to be proud of. He’s wildly erratic, at best, and that’s not a quality you’re looking for in a #2 starter.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays: The worst team in the Major Leagues last season, the Rays have nowhere to go but up. How far up is still in question, but they certainly can’t get any worse than their ’06 record of 61-101. Can they?
Well, they made a grand total of one free agent signing this year – 28-year old Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura. Not that Iwamura wasn’t a good signing; by all accounts he should be a very good third baseman, and might even contend for an All-Star slot. But the D-Rays, like the Orioles, have far too many holes to patch up all at once.
The rotation behind Scott Kazmir is, well, non-existent. Seth McClung, Casey Fossum, Shawn Camp... basically, non-existent. What they do have is a pretty good core on offense, most of whom are locked up at low money that suits the Rays budgetary constraints. Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, BJ Upton, Jonny Gomes… the Rays have only 2 position players (Greg Norton & Josh Paul) and two pitchers (Camp & Dan Miceli) on their roster over the age of 29.
They could follow the Marlins’ old formula and try to make a push with young pitching and very young, brash offense. Problem is, they need a little more talent, and they need to get out of the AL East.
Biggest subplot this season?
How many games will have more D-Rays fans than opposing team’s fans? More often than not, there are more Red Sox/Yankees and occasionally fans of other teams in the stands than actual home team fans. It can’t be fun for the Rays’ players to be playing, at home, in front of more fans cheering for them to lose than to win. Kind of like playing for the Celtics right now.
Best player you should start looking out for?
Obviously, Iwamura will be getting some attention by mid-season, but he’s coming from Japan with a long resume. Guys like BJ Upton and Delmon Young are the most likely to be ignored early on, until they start putting up the numbers. The unfortunate side here is that Upton & Young will likely take too long to develop into big-time players, and guys like Baldelli, Crawford, Kazmir & Jorge Cantu will have moved on.
Biggest unseen roadblock?
Just like with the Royals, no one is expecting the D-Rays to be a competitive force in the division or league. If they can steal a couple from the powerhouse teams, they might be able to build some confidence heading into next year. But until they add more good arms to the rotation, they’re nothing but fodder for the actual contenders to tune up on.
Labels: 2007, American League, East, MLB, Preview
