2008 NFL Preview - Post 4
Today, it’s the final installment in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. Another beautiful day here in Southern New England – started with 18 holes and a good solid lunch, and now the final NFL Preview Post before tomorrow’s post with SpartyAndFriends.
So let’s finish it up – today, the AFC South & East
AFC SOUTH
2007 Standings
Indianapolis (13-3)
Jacksonville (11-5)
Tennessee (10-6)
Houston (8-8)
Much like the Eagles in 2007, the Houston Texans were a victim of circumstance last year. They played well enough to win half of their games, but got stuck in a division with three playoff teams. Division play accounted for five of their eight losses, with the other three coming to the Chargers – runners up in the AFC title game – the Browns, who just missed the playoffs, and the Falcons; really no excuse for the loss to the Falcons. But of their eight wins, only two came against teams above .500 – Week 14 at home against Tampa Bay, and Week 17 blowout at home against a Jacksonville team resting their starters. So are they a good team in an unlucky divisional situation? Or are they really a middle of the road, 8-8 type team that might get a few breaks and knock off the actual contenders here and there? A full, healthy season out of Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Ahman Green (or Steve Slaton… actually, Slaton’s probably the better option at this point) will give us the answer. They open the year with four of five games against last year’s playoff teams – three on the road. That’s the type of run that wears a team down and exposes major flaws. After that, they have a fairly soft schedule, and might be able to string together a couple wins. Prediction: 7-9
I honestly believe the Tennessee Titans were a fluke last season. They snuck in a win in Week 1 against the Jaguars, then didn’t beat an above .500 team until Week 17 when they still needed to win for a playoff berth, but the Colts were already guaranteed the #2 seed. Vince Young had two different games last year in which he threw for under 80 yards (both wins, somehow) and 10 games under 200 yards passing. LenDale White hasn’t exactly asserted himself as anything more than a bruising goal line or short yardage back, the kind of guy who pushes the middle of the pile three or four yards at a time. The defense is still dominant, allowing under 300 points last season (297, four points less than they scored), but among the eight playoff teams only one other AFC team allowed more – Jacksonville at 304 – and all three entrants from the NFC East. This year’s schedule is very, very kind to them with only two road games against 2007 playoff teams – both NFC South rivals – and only two playoff team from out of their division; Green Bay and Pittsburgh come to town in Weeks 9 and 16 respectively. Fluke or not, they can probably put together another 10 win season and maybe sneak into the playoffs again. Prediction: 10-6
Jacksonville struck me as a bit of a streaky team last season. They had three separate three-game winning streaks during the year, punctuated with a 49-11 pasting of the Raiders in Week 16. David Garrard looks like the real deal as an NFL Quarterback he’s they type of player that will keep you in games, minimize mistakes and do damage control when necessary, and he might even make a big play or three every week to seal a victory. This year, by the grace of the scheduling gods they get four virtual freebies with the AFC & NFC North divisions – though all four (Chicago, Cincy, Detroit & Baltimore) are road games. They get the four tough teams from those divisions right at home in Northern Florida, a situation that can only help their numbers. Outside of those eight and their six division games, they get Denver & Buffalo – both should be wins. This could be a big year in Jacksonville. Wonder what that’ll be like… Prediction: 13-3
Indianapolis lucked out early this year. Not only do they get to christen a brand new stadium, but their first two games (when Peyton Manning may or may not be able to play) are against teams that they should be able to handle with Jim Sorgi under center; Chicago & Minnesota. Another beneficiary of this year’s North/South divisional battles, they unfortunately have to travel to all four of the other division’s contenders while getting the four relative cupcakes in Indy. Throw in the yearly rivalry game with New England (at home) and the new budding rivalry game with San Diego (in SoCal) and the Colts have a pretty rough schedule overall. If Manning and/or Marvin Harrison aren’t completely recovered from knee problems, this could be a long year for the Colts. But I’m betting they’ll both be at least at their averages, which is pretty damned good compared to everyone else. Prediction: 12-4 (That’s right – this is the year Indy doesn’t control the AFC South)
AFC EAST
2007 Standings
New England (16-0)
Buffalo (7-9)
New York Jets (4-12)
Miami (1-15)
Miami could be a shock this year. Let’s face it – they’re not going to get worse. But they imported Chad Pennington to be a competent, if not stunning quarterback and run a system. They have a rejuvenated Ricky Williams to pair with Ronnie Brown in the backfield once Brown is healthy. They overhauled the defense and got younger all over the place, which may or may not be a good thing. And they revamped the coaching staff and administration, bringing the Big Tuna down to Marlin country. They’re not going to win 10 games and sneak into the playoffs – let’s be serious. But they could easily sneak out five or six games and regain a modicum of respectability. Prediction: 5-11
For all the noise Buffalo seems to make either in the draft or free agency every year, they haven’t really contended in over half a decade. In this year’s draft they again took a cornerback off the board about ten spots too high in the first round rather than trading down and getting the same player plus some picks, and got a wide receiver in the second who’s profile says he “doesn’t make crisp cuts… needs to work on route running… going to have a tough time separating from man coverage…” Wow – what a draft day steal! Did I mention their big free agent acquisition this year was Kawika Mitchell from the Giants? Or that they lost both a starting wide receiver and cornerback to division rival New England? Or that their schedule has them playing New England twice after the bye week, plus San Diego, Jacksonville and Cleveland, and those are just the games they should lose? Prediction: 6-10
Now, to the Brett Favre portion of this NFL Preview… Listen, the Jets made a move that was necessary. They settled their quarterback controversy for at least this season and possibly one or two more in the future. They brought in an all-time great quarterback and handed him the keys to the city (though, not literally; not yet at least). But last time I checked, Brett can’t play defense and help slow up the 200 passing and 135 rushing yards the Jets allowed per game. He can’t play runningback to boost the 100 rushing yards per game, though he might have to use his legs and scramble a little behind that line. He can only help solve some of the offensive problems the Jets suffered through in ’07 (268 points scored is embarrassing, even if it was second in the division). I’ll admit – as soon as I head the news on the trade I tried to drop some money on the Jets’ Over/Under for wins this year which was still at 4.5 (it moved to 7.5 before I could get it done which is right in the middle of where I think they’ll be… damnit). This team was a playoff team in 2006, but that 10-6 season kind of came out of left field after three straight years of four, four and six wins. They’ll be better. But don’t expect any “Broadway” repeats this year. Prediction: 7-9 (and I’m being generous because of their out-of-division schedule… they could win four or they could win ten. I’m shooting for the middle)
Finally, my beloved New England Patriots. I mistakenly thought early season injuries and suspensions would cost them a chance at a perfect season in 2007; little did I know it would be a miraculous catch (and three uncalled holding penalties on the play) coupled with one of the worst attempts at pass coverage I have ever seen at the end of the year that cost them history. I’d love to play the “This year, they’re reinvigorated” card here, make something up about them being pissed to the point of being maniacal, stopping at nothing to reach perfection. But I don’t see it happening. Don’t get me wrong – they’re still the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl, and rightfully so. But 19-0? Don’t see it. They’ll lose one somewhere, maybe a flukey game like Week 13 last year in Baltimore; every bounce, every call, everything will fall the wrong way. Maybe it will be against a terrible opponent like the Ravens (or this year, the Broncos or Rams. That’s my guess). Maybe it’ll be to a comparable team like the Colts or Steelers where everyone just watches it and says “nope, not winning this one”. Might even happen twice. But I think it’ll come somewhere. And they’ll be better for it. Prediction: 14-2
So that’s it for this year’s NFL preview. As always, I’m ecstatic if I get 50% of the teams within one game – either way – of their actual final records, though last year I only got 12 of 32 within that one game. And we won’t discuss what I wrote about the Giants or the Jaguars, among others, in 2007. So here’s hoping to less mistakes than last year. How’s that for a rallying cry?
See you on Friday afternoon over at SpartyAndFriends, and every week during the season you can find the weekly picks over there with a recap post here on Mondays or Tuesdays.
Lata.
Labels: 2008, AFC, East, NFL, Preview, South
2008 NFL Preview - Post 3
Today, its part three in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. My apologies for the lack of a post yesterday – a headache kept me in bed until the mid afternoon and by then, I wasn’t in much of a mood to post.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s continue – today, the AFC North & West
AFC NORTH
2007 Standings
Pittsburgh (10-6)
Cleveland (10-6)
Cincinnati (7-9)
Baltimore (5-11)
Cleveland pulled out nothing short of a miracle last season, and they were rewarded with exactly the same thing they’ve gotten every year since they came back into the league – an early tee time, and a nice front row seat to watch the other twelve teams in the playoffs. I don’t know how much stock I put in Derek Anderson repeating last season’s performance, or Braylon Edwards & Kellen Winslow playing a full 16. The Browns still strike me as a team on the rise, but this season feels like it might be a small step back before they can make the next push forward. Prediction: 8-8
Baltimore made three solid picks through the draft in Joe Flacco, Ray Rice & Tom Zbikowski from Notre Dame (yes, I had to look that one up. Twice. And now my spell-checker hates me), and they not only managed to lose very little in free agency, but they held onto their biggest chip in Terrell Suggs. Unfortunately, Willis McGahee still has a lingering injury, and although Joe Flacco has a cannon for an arm, it doesn’t look like the Ravens have any intention of letting him under center this year unless they have to. With a weaker, aging defense and an inexperienced offense, they probably have another year or two before they can get the players and the favorable schedule to expect to be serious contenders in the AFC again. Prediction: 4-12
Pittsburgh has got an absolutely brutal schedule – seven playoff teams, plus two against the Browns who just missed the postseason in 2007. Ben Roethlisberger had a fantastic year last season, but the Steelers fell apart when it came to playing anyone wearing a Jacksonville uniform. They added another solid runningback in Rashard Mendenhall, but lost a handful of good players through free agency – most notably Clark Haggans and Alan Faneca. Just looking at the games they have throughout the season, I can see seven different games where they will probably be the underdog. That’s not good. I’ll give them credit for squeaking out at least one of those. Prediction: 10-6
And then there’s Cincinnati. For a very long time, the Arizona Cardinals were, single-handedly, the worst run franchise in the NFL. In the past five or six years, the Detroit Lions have come rushing up from the middle of the pack to lay a solid grip on the title. But the Bengals are making an awful strong push to contend for the crown. They can’t keep team morale out of the toilet. They can’t put a quality team on the field, since half the team out of prison long enough to learn the playbook. And just when they were turning a corner, tossing out problem children like Odell Thurman and Chris Henry, they went right back to their old demons and resigned Henry this week so they could field a legitimate starting wide receiving corps. This team is going nowhere, and they’re getting there as fast as they can. There’s a legitimate chance that with their schedule they could go 0-16. Prediction: 2-14 (They gotta sneak one or two out somehow…)
AFC WEST
2007 Standings
San Diego (11-5)
Denver (7-9)
Oakland (4-12)
Kansas City (4-12)
I wrote this in a post during last year’s Championship Round – San Diego and their fans have never won a thing. Yet everyone wearing a San Diego Chargers jersey – players, fans, staff, cabbies in the street – all act like the Chargers are the rightful heirs to the next great NFL dynasty. I’ve seen nothing to make me think they’ve got anything more than another division title and another playoff flameout in them this year. Philip Rivers and LdT are both coming off of knee injuries, and Antonio Gates hasn’t set foot on a practice field this year with problems with his foot. Their defense is still strong enough to keep them in most games, but the offense might not be there this year. The schedule is pretty soft with only four 2007 playoff teams, but the trip to London in late October to face the Saints certainly won’t help matters. Prediction: 11-5 (soft schedule oughtta help them out a lot, at least until playoff time)
The Chiefs made some big strides this offseason, locking up Jared Allen and drafting Glenn Dorsey to give them one of the better defensive lines in the NFL. Drafting Branden Albert to shore up what was already a good offensive line was another good move. Sadly, they still don’t have a quarterback worth handing the offense to, and Larry Johnson’s body might be nearing the end of the load it can carry. They’re following the Ravens’ mold of slowly building a team, then hoping to get lucky and hit the jackpot in the draft, the free agent market, and the schedule all in the same season. This isn’t that season. Prediction: 6-10
You can’t imagine how much this hurts to admit, but I’m actually pretty high on the Raiders this year. Not like “playoffs” high, but closer to “maybe running at a .500 season”. JaMarcus Russell has some experience under his belt; Darren McFadden gives them a legitimate running threat (though Justin Fargas will still carry some of the load). The defense wasn’t really all that great last year – though in fairness, since the offense was so awful, teams never felt the need to run up the score on them. But scoring 115 less points than they allowed never helped. They upgraded the offense through the draft and through free agency, shipping out malcontent Jerry Porter and importing Drew Carter… and malcontent Javon Walker. If they can bump the weekly point average from the 17+ it was last year up to 20 or more this season, they can probably make a serious push towards eight wins or more. Prediction: 8-8
And as high as I am on Oakland, I’m just as down on Denver. Jay Cutler has yet to prove to anyone that he’s a capable NFL quarterback. The runningback by committee option has revolutionized the way the entire NFL does business, but the Broncos have gotten passed by the rest of the league. They’ve got the biggest names in the league in their defensive backfield, but they were still one of only five teams in the league to allow more than 400 points last year. They’ve got a tough schedule to contend with, including the AFC East and a back to back road trip to the Eastern Time Zone. This is not their year. Prediction: 4-12
Labels: 2008, AFC, NFL, North, Preview, West
2008 NFL Preview - Post 2
Today, it’s part two in a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement. It’s a beautiful day – sun’s shining, birds are chirping, and Season 4 of The Wire is in the DVD Player ready to go.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s continue – today, the NFC North & East
NFC NORTH
2007 Standings
Green Bay (13-3)
Minnesota (8-8)
Detroit (7-9)
Chicago (7-9)
One name dominates this division in 2008. And since he’s no longer in the NFC North, it’s not worth even bringing him up again until I have to. Which should be right about…
Brett Favre. There. I said it. He’s gone, and Green Bay fans (not to mention the team) will have to deal with that reality. The Packers can go one of two ways this season, they can either rally behind Aaron Rodgers and try to repeat last year’s success, or they can pack it in and use any number of excuses up to and including the loss of an icon, the new and more difficult first place schedule, etc etc etc. Look – Aaron Rodgers was a very highly touted first round quarterback a couple years ago. Brett Favre had a career year in 2007, but he was not the whole team. A serviceable QB should be able to take what is essentially the same team and lead them to about 10 or 11 wins. In the NFC North, that should be good enough for a Wild Card berth, at the very least. Prediction: 11-5
Detroit is still in a sorry state. They had another below average draft, and added absolutely nothing through free agency. But look at the list of free agents they had come off the books after the 2007 season. They shed twenty-four contracts! That’s half a team! How did they not improve through free agency? More importantly, how is Matt Millen still employed? Has anybody even seen William Clay Ford family alive in the past five years? I know it’s an old line to fall back on, but seriously, how does this guy keep his job every year? I suppose maybe Ford is falling back to the old-time sports administration, allowing a GM ten to fifteen years to fix the problems of the team. I suppose loyalty is nice, but it just doesn’t work in today’s sports world. Prediction: 5-11
The Bears had two major weaknesses this offseason – offense and defense. And that’s being generous. Somehow, they almost managed a .500 season with an aging defense and the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. They addressed the need at runningback by cutting ties with Cedric Benson and adding Matt Forte through the draft. Forte has had a pretty good preseason, but he can’t carry the offense by himself. Since the Bears are pretty much flipping a coin between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton from now through the beginning of the season, they are going to need to rely on their defense – yet again – to keep the team in games. They only signed two free agents – Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd – and kept Lance Briggs in Chicago for a handful more years, but they had a defense heavy draft. If any of those players can step up quickly, the Bears might be able to return to the playoffs in a weak NFC. But more than likely, they’ll be stuck at the bottom of the North barrel again. Prediction: 4-12
Finally, Minnesota. They’ve been the trendy pick to win the NFC before, and this year is no different. But until I see something, anything, to make me believe that Tarvaris Jackson can be a competent NFL quarterback, I won’t believe they’re much better than a mediocre team. Adrian Peterson was a revelation at runningback last year until a knee injury derailed his season. But can he repeat the same numbers this year? The Vikings biggest strength is their defense. They’ve turned into the 2005 Bears and the 2000 Ravens – Quarterback questions, an above average runningback, and a dominant defense. They could be the Super Bowl Champs. They could be 8-8 again. I’m leaning towards a Wild Card berth and just above mediocre. Prediction: 9-7
NFC East
2007 Standings
Dallas (13-3)
NY Giants (10-6)
Washington (9-7)
Philadelphia (8-8)
Listen, I know the Giants won the Super Bowl. I’ve come to terms with it. I’m not happy about it, but I’ve learned to deal with it. They went on a magical run for a month last winter, they caught every break, they made every big play, and they won it all. And after saying all that… I still don’t think they have the horses to win this division. Not that they’ll need to – I think they proved that back in February. Eli Manning finally matured into the quarterback the Giants thought they were getting four years ago. Brandon Jacobs proved that you don’t need lightning for thunder to be effective (though Ahmad Bradshaw was a nice surprise). And the defensive line was dominant for most of the year. With only two major subtractions from the team (Jeremy Shockey traded to New Orleans and Michael Strahan retired), the Giants should be primed to at least return to the playoffs, if not make another run deep into the postseason. Prediction: 10-6 (I know… it’s boring but it feels about right)
Dallas is still the top dog in this division. They’ve got the offense, they’ve got the defense. They’ve got talent all over the field, and they’ve got to be pissed about how their year ended in 2007. They’ve got absolutely no reason to lose this division, or to not advance to at least the NFC Title Game. They lost only Julius Jones and Jacques Reeves, and added Zach Thomas in free agency. Not to mention adding Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins early in the draft. They should be able to put up at least 12 wins, probably more. They have five tough games total through the season, and no tougher road trips than St. Louis following Arizona in mid-October. This looks like a good year for them. Prediction: 14-2
Washington made a nice run last year, even managing a playoff berth (though I have no idea how). But without a first round draft pick, and virtually no free agent imports or losses, the only real change for the ‘Skins was bringing in Jason Taylor who may or may not still have enough in the tank to rejuvenate their defensive line. This year, that probably won’t be enough. Jason Campbell is another quarterback on a short leash trying to prove that he still belongs in this league. They don’t have the guns to stick around all year long, on offense or defense. Prediction: 7-9
Philadelphia is kind of getting caught on the short end of the stick here. They’ve still got a top 15 QB in Donovan McNabb. Brian Westbrook is one of the all around best runningbacks in the NFL. They’ve got the defense to contend every year. But there’s something holding them back. Aside from injuries, I can’t tell you what it is. I have absolutely no idea how they lost 8 games while only allowing a total of 300 points all year. I think they were nothing more than a victim of circumstance in their division; 8-8 in a division with three playoff teams is just plain unlucky. This year, they might sneak in a Wild Card berth, but most likely they’ll be on the outside looking in again. Prediction: 9-7
Labels: 2008, East, NFC, NFL, North, Preview
2008 NFL Preview - Post 1
Beginning today, it’s a four part series for the annual NFL preview! Please, contain your excitement.
In the past, I’d throw a 20,000 word epic post up here that would take everyone a week to read. Last year I realized that’s not the best idea, and this year I’m following my model. Two divisions a day through Thursday. And Friday, will be my second post of the year over at SpartyAndFriends (click if you missed the first one).
So let’s get going – today, the NFC West & South
NFC WEST
2007 Standings
Seattle (10-6)
Arizona (8-8)
San Francisco (5-11)
St. Louis (3-13)
I should have known better last year when I predicted all four teams to finish within three games of one another. Although at this point, it’s pretty much a guarantee to write in Seattle for 10 wins and the weakest division title of the eight.
Every year, Arizona makes a move or two to make me think maybe they’ve got it figured out this year. Maybe this is the year they put together a winning season, and maybe they actually make the playoffs. Their best offseason move was bringing in Clark Haggans from Pittsburgh, and that wasn’t all that great a move. I’m not falling for it this year. I had them at 7-9 last year and they made it to .500. This year, I’m not giving them even that much credit. Maybe they’ll win the damned Super Bowl. At least I could make some money off the 50-1 odds they’re currently getting. Prediction: 6-10
San Francisco needs to put something together, or else they need to start thinking about blowing it all up. Again. They invested heavily in players like Nate Clements and Alex Smith, and haven’t seen any type of return on their money. Since drafting Smith Number 1 overall, they’ve gone 16-32 in three years. In fairness to Smith, he’s only started 32 of the 48 games, but his stats haven’t been all that great either – 19 career TD’s to 31 INT’s, and a total of just under 4800 yards passing. To me, those aren’t franchise QB numbers. Give him one more year, then start looking at the next option. Prediction: 4-12
St. Louis made a major upgrade on their defensive line when they grabbed Chris Long to anchor their DE position for years to come. But after their first round pick, you’d be hard pressed to find another player worth mentioning. I mean, seriously – read some of the player evaluations from ESPN’s post-draft “grades” page. Throw in the fact that their best offensive player, Stephen Jackson, is currently in the middle of a hold-out for a long term contract, and St. Louis might be looking at another season of wondering how high they’ll be drafting in April. Prediction: 2-14
Like I said before – Seattle is just about a guarantee for 10 wins and a de facto division title. They released former league MVP Shaun Alexander (and it’s fairly shocking that absolutely no one has shown any interest in him… there’s a lot more to that story and I’m certain it will come out eventually). They imported TJ Duckett and Julius Jones to take over the rushing load. Of course, Matt Hasslebeck still has absolutely no one reliable to throw the ball to. Let’s just say 10 wins to be safe. Prediction: 10-6
NFC SOUTH
2007 Standings:
Tampa Bay (9-7)
Carolina (7-9)
New Orleans (7-9)
Atlanta (4-12)
Welcome to the worst division in football. This was the only division to have a team on top with fewer than 10 wins last season. Don’t expect much more out of them this year.
Atlanta has had some time to recover from the Michael Vick fiasco. They’ve got a new face of the franchise in Matt Ryan. They let go of TJ Duckett and Warrick Dunn, and replaced them with the dynamic Michael Turner. They imported Jason Elam – on of the most clutch kickers in NFL history, something that can’t be undervalued – stealing him away from the Broncos. Their only big losses were Alge Crumpler and Demorrio Williams. But they still don’t have the defense to shut down the high powered offenses in the NFL – the Saints will probably give them trouble both times this year. They allowed almost 160 more point than they scored last year – the gap should close a little this year, but not enough to matter. Prediction: 3-13
Tampa Bay missed out on the Brett Favre sweepstakes, meaning they’re stuck with the same problem they’ve had since… well since forever really – they need a quarterback. They’ve continued to get older without addressing their biggest needs, and this could be the year it comes back to haunt them. The rest of the division will catch up to them eventually. Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway and Earnest Graham will only carry this team so far, and this year it might not even be to the playoffs. Prediction: 9-7
New Orleans got stuck with an above average team and a first place schedule last year – they weren’t ready for what a successful run in 2006 brought them. This year, they’ve got the same above average team plus the addition of Jeremy Shockey and the addition of Sedrick Ellis in the draft helps shore up a weak defensive line. Look out for rookie Adrian Arrington as well as a Troy Brown, over the middle possession receiver type. (though it might just be my Michigan bias). Prediction: 11-5
Carolina made a lot of moves this offseason, importing plenty of familiar faces to try and rebuild a team that scored only 267 points in 16 games last season. Unfortunately, they did nothing to address their biggest need – bringing in another quarterback to legitimately challenge Jake Delhomme for the starting job. They had a fantastic top of the draft getting Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah, and late round selection Nick Hayden could grow into quite a playmaker on the defensive line. But until they start averaging more than 17 points a game, they’re not going to be able to compete with the rest of the NFC. Prediction: 9-7
Labels: 2008, NFC, NFL, Preview, South, West
NBA Finals Preview
OK, I’ve refrained from writing anything at all about the NBA during the playoffs for two reasons. First, I’m kind of superstitious, and didn’t want to risk the chance of a Celtics/Lakers Finals. Yes, I realize it’s stupid. But it’s easier to sit back and wait a couple weeks (months) for the first three rounds to run their course before writing it all up. And second, let’s face it – I don’t write about the NBA a lot. I’ve written in this space numerous times that aside from the Celtics, I usually can’t stand watching NBA Basketball. Too often in recent years an NBA game becomes a 1-on-1 showdown with eight other guys standing around watching. Even worse, with the timeouts and intentional fouling at the end of games, most times you can spend 35 minutes watching the final two minutes of the fourth quarter.
But since everything has fallen into place, and NBA fans are about to be rewarded with another Celtics/Lakers Finals (not to mention a Finals where it’s not almost a foregone conclusion which team is going to win), I figure it’s safe to come out of hiding and write a Finals preview post. And if I inadvertently jinx the whole thing, leading to a Lakers sweep in which they win all four by no less than fifteen points, well then I apologize in advance.
For the first time in recent memory, both teams are supremely balanced. Both teams have a “goto” scorer (Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce), both teams have a big man with exceptional offensive skills (KG, Pau Gasol), and both teams have the “third banana” type of guy who can either light it up or be stone cold on any give night (Lamar Odom, Ray Allen).
Obviously, Kobe Bryant is the single most dominant player in this series. He can single-handedly take over a game. He is the best shooter on the court most nights, and when his shot isn’t falling he has finally learned to trust is teammates enough to distribute the ball until he can find his shot. There is nobody on the Celtics that can guard him one-on-one, and most likely not even a double-team will shut him down completely. And considering how much I despise him, you can’t even imagine how hard it was to write those words.
With the addition of Gasol and the emergence of Odom as a legitimate third scorer, the Lakers are no longer one dimensional. In the past, it was as simple as double-teaming Kobe (or perhaps putting a cute 19-year old girl in the row behind the Lakers bench) and you could completely take him off his game. But now with other options, it’s no longer a one man team.
The counter to that argument is that there isn’t one player on the Lakers that can guard KG straight up. Gasol will most likely be guarding the Kendrick Perkins/Big Baby Davis/Leon Powe combo under the hoop, meaning Lamar Odom will be responsible for Kevin Garnett on most nights. If Garnett doesn’t average 20 points, 8 boards and probably 4-5 assists when he gets the double-team throughout the series, I’ll be stunned.
The final thing to keep in mind here is history and desire. Kobe has three rings. Phil Jackson has nine. It’s not like they’ve never been here before. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Doc Rivers are all looking for their first ring to validate careers. KG is already a Hall-of-Fame caliber player; a ring simply puts him in on the first ballot. Pierce is a borderline HoF’er, and a ring would only add to his case. And Doc is desperately in need of a ring to validate his entire existence as an NBA coach. If they can’t get one with this team, they’re never going to get one. Celtics in 7 (naturally).
Labels: 2007-2008, Celtics, Finals, Lakers, NBA, Preview
2008 MLB Preview - Part 2: American League
Rather than bombard everyone with my standard MLB breakdown of the impending season (you know the type… six divisions, postseason predictions, takes me two weeks to write and takes you three days to read – though most of you probably realize how stupid I sound after about twenty minutes), I’ve decided to break this year’s preview up into two separate posts.
So… uh… here we go!
Today’s post – the American League. Click here to read all about the NL in 2008
American League East
Boston Red Sox (94-68)
New York Yankees (88-74)
Toronto Blue Jays (84-78)
Tampa Bay Rays (75-87)
Baltimore Orioles (64-98)
As much as I would like to do it, I cannot in good conscience come out and endorse the Red Sox as the best team in the American League. They didn’t do anything to make their team better in the offseason (ahem… Johan Santana anyone?) aside from bringing in whatever is left in Bartolo Colon. And more importantly, their top two starters are starting the season on the shelf. Josh Beckett will probably only be laid up for a couple of weeks, but how his body responds when he returns is a big question. Perhaps more importantly, Curt Schilling won’t even consider returning to the rotation until after the All-Star Break, and maybe later. So with all of that, how can I possibly pick them to win the division? Because they still have the best overall team in the AL East. If they can manage to either hold a slim lead or even be just a game or two back by the time Schilling returns, they’ve got the horses (and the trading chips) to make a push and take the division for the second year in a row.
Another year, another year older. Nice way to explain the Yankees. They’re not getting younger at any major positions including the rotation and closer spots. A-Rod isn’t in a contract year this season, so to think he’d duplicate last year’s numbers is probably asking a lot. And to top it all off, they’ve got a new manager in this, the final season of Yankee Stadium, meaning even more expectations and emotions all season long. They can never be counted out of a season before it even starts, but I’m just not sure they’ve got enough to compete all year long. (Side Note: On the ESPN.com Free Agent Tracker, they list the dollars spent by a team in the offseason… the Yankees gave out nearly $400 Million in guaranteed money this year. I mean… that’s Monopoly money.)
Toronto has done a decent job overhauling what they had going last year. They moved Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen, and brought in Rolen’s infield mate in David Eckstein from St. Louis. Last season, the Jays had everything in place to make a solid run at the AL East. But losing both their #1 & #2 starters, plus their closer, plus about a third of their position players to injuries at various times in the year kind of derailed their season before it ever really started. This season they’ve got all their pieces back in place, and lost only Josh Towers from last season’s roster. They should be able to hang around all season long, and if either Boston or New York gets out of the box a little slow, the Jays will be right there to make a move.
Every season, I look at the Rays (no longer the Devil Rays) and wonder “why can’t this team get it together?” They’ve got decent pitching, a pretty solid lineup, but they’ve never been able to put it all together into one winning season. This season, they’ve found another solid young starter in James Shields to pair up with Scott Kazmir. If Carlos Pena can come anywhere close to last season’s numbers, they could have a legitimate threat in the lineup to drive Carl Crawford home 100-120 times. And no matter what they do on the field, there will be about 3500 Rays fans in the stand to watch it happen.
Last season the Baltimore Orioles almost managed to finish in the basement of the AL East, but somehow they stayed three games ahead of the Rays to end the year a stellar 69-93. This year, they won’t be so lucky. They traded away their best pitcher and best hitter in separate deals with Seattle and Houston. They got nice young players in return… who won’t contribute much for the next three to five seasons. They signed one free agent – 37-year old Steve Trachsel, who happened to be their own free agent, and a pitcher that likely had one or maybe two other suitors, at best. The Orioles might be the biggest joke in the majors, narrowly edging out the Royals & Pirates for “current worst franchise in MLB”. I never thought it would be possible, but Peter Angelos’ ownership has turned one of the best baseball cities in the country into a bunch of displaced Nationals fans.
American League Central
Detroit Tigers (100-62)
Cleveland Indians (97-65)
Chicago White Sox (81-81)
Minnesota Twins (78-84)
Kansas City Royals (65-97)
Of all the teams in MLB, no one did more to improve their team than the Detroit Tigers. Someone obviously poked owner Mike Illitch to remind him that he was in charge of both the Red Wings and Tigers, as he has opened the wallet and turned into the Mark Cuban of the Major Leagues. This season, the Tigers brought in an All-Star shortstop in Edgar Renteria, as well as a former #1 starter in Dontrelle Willis (who will probably end up being a #3 or #4 when it’s all said and done in the AL) and Miguel Cabrera, one of the best young third baseman in the game. No one knows how all these moves will affect the Tigers, but they can’t hurt. Detroit now sports one of the deadliest lineups in the American League with Granderson, Renteria, Cabrera, Ordonez, and Sheffield, and one of the deepest rotations with the D-Train moving into the #3 starters role. Ladies and gentlemen… your 2008 Best Team in Baseball – Regular Season Edition.
For the first time in about a decade, I’m convinced that the Wild Card is not coming out of the East or West. The Indians came on strong at the end of the season in ’07 as the Tigers faltered, then managed to give up the AL Pennant to three straight Red Sox victories in the ALCS. They might be the “hungriest” team in the American League this year. Throw in a contract year for their #1 starter, a bullpen that cannot possibly be worse than it has been the past two years, and a lineup that works well from top to bottom, and they’ve got no reason not to make the playoffs this year.
I can only imagine that last season was an abberation for the White Sox. In 2005, they won a World Series. In 2006 they won 90 games… and finished third in this division. Then last year, they dropped to 72 wins and a fourth place finish. Something about that just doesn’t make sense. They should be at the very least a .500 club, and they’ve still got most of the important pieces from the ’05 club that went the distance. They might even surprise everyone and break out another 90-win campaign, but I’m not optimistic about it. I’ll give them a .500 season, and see if they can beat expectations.
As a New Englander and a fan of all Boston sports teams… I’m certain most people from Minnesota hate us. Kevin Garnett. Randy Moss. And almost Johan Santana. But as far as this year’s Twins team goes, I just can’t see how they can be competitive in that division. They traded away two of their top three pitchers from 2007, and allowed the third to walk in free agency. They lost their only recognizable face in the field when Torii Hunter hit free agency and took a mega deal from the Angels. They still have a solid closer in Joe Nathan and a former MVP in Justin Morneau, as well as whatever Francisco Liriano can give them coming back from Tommy John Surgery… but not much else. A .500 season would be a victory this year. Of course, it’s the Twins – they always seem to outperform expectations.
Finally, the Kansas City Royals. In all honestly, without looking it up I don’t think I could name more than four Royals players. Gil Meche. Zack Grienke. Tony Pena. Mark Teahan. What’s even sadder is that while typing this part of the preview, I’m watching the Royals/Tigers opening day game. Which should tell you everything you need to know about the Royals. Even if they manage to sneak out a .500 season, nobody is going to notice. They need to suddenly turn into the 2003 Marlins – young team, no expectations, just having fun and coming out of nowhere to grab a playoff spot – before anyone outside of Missouri begins to pay attention. And even then, it will be more for the spectacle than the substance.
American League West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California, United States of America, North America, Earth (94-68)
Seattle Mariners (89-73)
Texas Rangers (78-84)
Oakland Athletics (72-90)
The Angels lost three players from last year’s roster, and brought in only two. They let Bartolo Colon and Dallas McPherson go to Boston and Florida, respectively, and imported Torii Hunter via free agency from the Twins and Jon Garland from the White Sox in a trade for Orlando Cabrera. Hunter fills the position in the outfield that they thought Gary Matthews Jr. would take last season, and provides them with possibly the best defensive outfield in the major leagues whenever Matthews plays left field in place of the slowly calcifying Garrett Anderson. They’ve got one of the best lineups in the bigs, with power and speed up and down the card. Unfortunately, the starting rotation is beginning the season with 40% of the pitchers on the shelf. John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will be on the DL when the year begins, with Escobar likely to miss most if not the entire season. Much like Boston, the Angels need to simply hang around near the top of the division until they get all their pieces healthy, and they should be able to take it home down the stretch.
The Seattle Mariners made one of the biggest moves in the offseason, adding Eric Bedard to their rotation alongside Felix Hernandez to give them one of the nastiest 1-2 punches for the foreseeable future in the majors. Bedard has been nothing short of dominant pitching in the far tougher AL East for the last three seasons, and now the 28-year old lefty moves away from the Red Sox and Yankees and into pitcher friendly Safeco Field. There’s no reason to think he won’t be able to duplicate or exceed his numbers from the past two seasons when he went 28-16 with 392 K’s pitching for a much worse Orioles team. If the Mariners can get anything out of their overpriced, underperforming offense, they can make a serious push to the top of this division.
The Texas Rangers have the unfortunately distinction of playing in Coors Field East (or… Central). The Ballpark at Arlington is possibly the least pitcher-friendly park in the American League, and the Rangers team ERA over the past few seasons reflects it (4.75 in 2007, 4.60 in 2006, 4.96 in 2005, 4.53 in 2004… see a pattern?) Normally, teams without any chance of winning through pitching will keep as many big power hitters around as they can find. But the Rangers traded away their best power bat in Mar Teixeira last season, and imported only Josh Hamilton this year. Not exactly a formula for success. If there is a silver lining, it’s that they only have to beat three other teams if they happen to get hot at the right time in order to make a surprise surge in the division. It won’t happen, but at least it’s positivity…
Finally, the Oakland A’s. In 2007, they had the worst offense in baseball. This year, they’ve done nothing to get better, and they traded away their best starting pitcher in Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks. They might be the first team in a very long time to struggle to break 400 runs scored in a single season, and it’s pretty safe to say that the playoffs are still a few years away. They are relying on a rotation that’s now anchored by Rich Harden – he of the combined 13 starts since 2006 – and a batting lineup sporting only two regulars that have ever hit 20 home runs in a season.
Labels: 2008, American League, MLB, My annual attempt at relevancy, Preview
