NBA Finals Preview
OK, I’ve refrained from writing anything at all about the NBA during the playoffs for two reasons. First, I’m kind of superstitious, and didn’t want to risk the chance of a Celtics/Lakers Finals. Yes, I realize it’s stupid. But it’s easier to sit back and wait a couple weeks (months) for the first three rounds to run their course before writing it all up. And second, let’s face it – I don’t write about the NBA a lot. I’ve written in this space numerous times that aside from the Celtics, I usually can’t stand watching NBA Basketball. Too often in recent years an NBA game becomes a 1-on-1 showdown with eight other guys standing around watching. Even worse, with the timeouts and intentional fouling at the end of games, most times you can spend 35 minutes watching the final two minutes of the fourth quarter.
But since everything has fallen into place, and NBA fans are about to be rewarded with another Celtics/Lakers Finals (not to mention a Finals where it’s not almost a foregone conclusion which team is going to win), I figure it’s safe to come out of hiding and write a Finals preview post. And if I inadvertently jinx the whole thing, leading to a Lakers sweep in which they win all four by no less than fifteen points, well then I apologize in advance.
For the first time in recent memory, both teams are supremely balanced. Both teams have a “goto” scorer (Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce), both teams have a big man with exceptional offensive skills (KG, Pau Gasol), and both teams have the “third banana” type of guy who can either light it up or be stone cold on any give night (Lamar Odom, Ray Allen).
Obviously, Kobe Bryant is the single most dominant player in this series. He can single-handedly take over a game. He is the best shooter on the court most nights, and when his shot isn’t falling he has finally learned to trust is teammates enough to distribute the ball until he can find his shot. There is nobody on the Celtics that can guard him one-on-one, and most likely not even a double-team will shut him down completely. And considering how much I despise him, you can’t even imagine how hard it was to write those words.
With the addition of Gasol and the emergence of Odom as a legitimate third scorer, the Lakers are no longer one dimensional. In the past, it was as simple as double-teaming Kobe (or perhaps putting a cute 19-year old girl in the row behind the Lakers bench) and you could completely take him off his game. But now with other options, it’s no longer a one man team.
The counter to that argument is that there isn’t one player on the Lakers that can guard KG straight up. Gasol will most likely be guarding the Kendrick Perkins/Big Baby Davis/Leon Powe combo under the hoop, meaning Lamar Odom will be responsible for Kevin Garnett on most nights. If Garnett doesn’t average 20 points, 8 boards and probably 4-5 assists when he gets the double-team throughout the series, I’ll be stunned.
The final thing to keep in mind here is history and desire. Kobe has three rings. Phil Jackson has nine. It’s not like they’ve never been here before. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Doc Rivers are all looking for their first ring to validate careers. KG is already a Hall-of-Fame caliber player; a ring simply puts him in on the first ballot. Pierce is a borderline HoF’er, and a ring would only add to his case. And Doc is desperately in need of a ring to validate his entire existence as an NBA coach. If they can’t get one with this team, they’re never going to get one. Celtics in 7 (naturally).
Labels: 2007-2008, Celtics, Finals, Lakers, NBA, Preview
2008 NFL Draft
Alright everybody. I’ve been studying. I’ve read everything I can get my hands on relating to this year’s NFL Draft. I’ve watched countless hours of Mel Kiper & Todd McShay arguing about Glenn Dorsey’s knees, Vernon Gholston’s arm strength and Matt Ryan’s presence. And after all that, I’ve come up with this analysis of the 2008 NFL Draft. Ready?
I’m about 97% certain that Jake Long, offensive tackle from Michigan, is going to be picked #1 overall by the Dolphins. After that, well as always, it’s pretty much a crapshoot. Hope you haven’t come here looking for some type of competent breakdown of the entire first round of the draft, because let’s face it guys – none of us ever get it right.
Jake Long, well that’s the gimme. Since he’s already had the press conference in a Dolphins cap and expressed how happy he is to be in Miami, I’d say it’s a done deal. Let’s just roll through the rest of the top 10 because let’s face it – after the first 10 picks, most of us are in a Kiper Coma on the couch anyway.
2. St. Louis Rams
Chris Long, DE – Virginia. It’s a coin flip between Long & Glenn Dorsey here for the Rams. Long has the advantage of an NFL pedigree, and he allows them to move Adam Carrikker back to D-Tackle and improve their pass rush.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan, QB – Boston College. No brainer, unless they try to trade down since nobody from 4-7 really needs a QB. There’s a risk involved in that move though, as the Ravens at pick #8 are praying that Ryan slips to someone they can trade up with for whatever reason. But the Falcons have to know by now that Byron Leftwich & Joey Harrington aren’t going to cut it this season.
4. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB – Arkansas. I can’t imagine a situation in which Al Davis passes on the big time offensive threat, even when the defense is getting older and slowing down. McFadden is the obvious choice here, even with the money they’ve spent on Dominic Rhodes & Lamont Jordan the past two offseasons. However, if Davis isn’t the one calling the shots here, look for a defensive presence – either Dorsey or Gholston.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Glenn Dorsey, DE – LSU. The Chiefs have plenty of time to pick up a densive lineman to replace the newly departed Jared Allen – in fact, since they got another first rounder out of the deal, they could use it to get his replacement. But this pick gives them an impact defender on an abysmal defensive line that ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed last season but was top 10 in passing yards allowed and sacks recorded. Why wait when you can get him here?
6. New York Jets
Vernon Gholston, DE/LB – Ohio State. I just don’t think there’s anyway this kid lives up to the hype he’s created for himself. He’s not Mike Mamula, but he was a middle of the road prospect until he showed up in Indianapolis and showed off his biceps. If he gets put into a system that showcases his skills, or if he gets moved to LB full time, he could be a good defensive player for a long time. But I don’t think he’s got what it takes to bang bodies on the line in the NFL.
7. New England Patriots
Keith Rivers, LB – USC. Let me start by saying I’m almost 100% convinced that the Patriots do not keep this pick. But if somehow the Pats do keep it, they take a cornerback (Cromartie?) or linebacker (Rivers), because D-Line is probably the one spot in New England (besides QB) that should be set for the next five years. There’s all kind of talk about the Saints and/or Bengals trying to move up, both of whom are in love with Sedrick Ellis. Cincy has the #9 pick, New Orleans has the #10. And if I’m New England, I’m moving this pick to whichever team offers me a first round flip with a third rounder and next year’s first or second. With all the holes Cincy needs to fill, I can’t see them offering that much. (Also, if New England’s smart – which they’ve proven to be – they take the newly acquired third rounder and package it with their own second rounder and make a play to Miami for Jason Taylor. Picks #63 and either 73 or 74 overall in the draft might be enough to get Taylor away from the Dolphins, even if Belichick & Parcells would have to shake hands to make it happen.)
8. Baltimore Ravens
Antonio Rodgers-Cormartie, CB – Tennessee State. The Ravens obviously are more in need of a stable quarterback than another big playmaker on defense. But if Ryan’s off the board, the next QB will be one of either Brian Brohm, Joe Flacco or Chad Henne. None of those three are top-10 picks, so the Ravens will either have to trade down (or use other picks to trade back up later in the round) or else take the best available player that they feel like fits their team. A star CB with big play potential certainly fits that bill.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Jerod Mayo, LB – Tennessee. Plenty of options to choose from in the 9-hole, but I think the Bengals are going to need to focus on fixing their defense this year. Side Note: How in the hell did Cincy turn down a first and a third round pick for Chad Johnson? Especially when the third rounder could turn into as much as another first?!? Good God – never before has a team been offered a five quarters for a dollar trade after the dollar has publicly said that they don’t want to be in that particular wallet anymore, and the Bengals decided to turn it down? Are they expecting more for their disgruntled dollar? Perhaps five quarters and a dime? Sometimes sports makes no sense to me – the only explanation I can come up with is that Marvin Lewis doesn’t want to give in and trade Chad away because he’s afraid that anyone on the team who doesn’t like his approach will immediately go to the media and whine about the situation to try and get traded. Thing is – that’s what happens anyway.
10. New Orleans Saints
Sedrick Ellis, DE – USC. I’m writing this as if New Orleans is actually making this pick. Honestly, I believe the Saints end up with Ellis at #7 overall, and the Pats grab Rivers here. Either way, New Orleans could use a little more help on the O-Line and Pitt’s Jeff Otah would be hard to pass up here, but Rivers is the best LB still available, and the Saints’ defense was absolutely awful in ’07.
I could go on and on about the rest of the round, or even the draft, but let’s face it – I’ll be stunned if I’ve gotten even three of these picks right. Except Jake Long. I’m feeling pretty confident about that one.
Last year, I live-blogged the NFL Draft from a golf course. Or at least, I attempted to. Things didn’t work out so well after my cell phone/PDA battery decided that 45 minutes of combined battery life were more than enough for one day. This year, I’ve got a newer, better cell phone/PDA with almost three hours of life… and even more importantly, I’ll be home in front of my TV! I’m not planning a full live-blog, but I am going to try to login a couple times per round at least through the first and drop some informational nuggets out there for all of you to enjoy.
Other quick notes before I bow out for the night:
n It was very nice to have the Bruins semi-relevant in this area again, if only for a couple weeks. I stayed away from writing about them last week because I didn’t want to seem like every other writer who jumped off the bandwagon years ago and just got back on in time for the postseason. Two years ago, I wrote this post about the state of the NHL. And until about two months ago, I stood by everything I had said. But then I slowly started flipping channels and coming across VersusHD (thank God!)… and then I started checking out the standings and realizing that the sport wasn’t nearly as dead as it was last season… and then ESPN started showing me more and more NHL highlights, and suddenly I was right back into it. I will freely admit that I probably watched 30 hockey games total this year, and most of them were Penguins games back when I was still in the ‘burgh. But I’m very glad to have hockey back in my life. Now, if the Bruins could just find a way to never play the Canadians again…
n I had actually planned to jump on here last week and write a quick breakdown of the first round of the NBA playoffs. But it turns out that I have even less time to do stuff now that I’m not working a normal 9-5 job anymore. My days are all screwed up when I spend 14-18 hours one day playing cards, then the next two days trying to catch up on sleep. Anyway, for the record, I have the Celtics (duh) in four, Magic in five, Cavs (don’t EVER trash talk LeBron… duh) in six, and Pistons in six winning in the East, with the Spurs in five, Hornets in five, Jazz in six & Lakers in five in the West. I know – really going out on a limb there taking the top four seeds in each conference. After that, I’ve got the Celtics in six over Cleveland, Magic in seven over Detroit, Lakers in six over Utah and Spurs in five over New Orleans. Finally, I like the Celtics in six over Orlando and Lakers in seven over the Spurs. I’m leaving the Finals alone for now. Too far away to start guessing at that.
I should be on here tomorrow, even if it’s only for a couple of quick-hit posts during the NFL Draft. See you all then.
Lata.
Labels: Draft, NBA, NFL, NHL, Playoffs, Postseason
The Rarest of all Creatures...
Sshhhhh. Don't make any sudden moves. Try not to make any noise. Just sit there, quietly, and enjoy something that is about as rare as seeing a live-dodo bird in the wild.
A true win-win trade in the NBA.
This kind of thing just doesn't happen anymore. Almost every trade made these days, with the salary cap rules the way they are, is either a one-sided salary dump, a one-sided rebuilding project, or a one-sided shipment of a disgruntled superstar. Yesterday's
Celtics/T-Wolves megadeal (after the
Celtics/Sonics draft night deal) is that rare bird - a trade that benefitted both teams.
Minnesota got (in theory) seven players for the face of their franchise, assuming they make both draft picks and don't dump Sebastian Telfair. Of course, Theo Ratliff will probably never see the hardwood in Minneapolis, but his contract gives them a ton of cap room next season. They got a younger version of KG in Al Jefferson (Prep-to-pros big man with double-double written all over him, will eventually command a double-team everytime he touches the ball, wears his heart on his sleeve, etc.), the ultimate team/intangibles guy in Ryan Gomes, and the allure of Gerald Green's potential. They've just become the '06 Celtics of the Western Conference.
That might not sound too appealling, but with cap room to spare and extra draft picks to move, they might not be rebuilding all that long.
As for Boston, well, they went from
praying for a loss every night to getting ready to print up NBA Finals tickets (and maybe even starting the work on Banner #17). They've got one of the top three big men in the conference (Shaq & Chris Bosh, with KG, fill out that top-3 in some order), and two of the best pure shooters in the entire NBA. Sure, they have only about 4 total guys on the roster, but as the C's proved in '02 with Pierce & Walker - you can get to the Eastern Conference Finals with two top-25 guys and a roster full of "others". Now, they've got three top-25 guys (one in the top 10), and no other roster. I'm sure they can fill it in as they go along.
They're not quite the team to beat in the East yet - Chicago, Detroit & maybe even New Jersey and Toronto can give them a run - but they instantly went from the bottom of the barrel to right in the mix. If they can lure one or two mid-level free agents to join them and fill out their roster, they can be the East representatives in the NBA Finals.
And that's all we ask for. Celtics' fans expectations have been lowered so much in the past decade that all we want is to matter again. Now we do. Boston is no longer considered an "off night" on other teams schedules. They can't be overlooked, they can't be easily dismissed, and if other teams don't start paying attention, they won't be stopped.
Lata.
Labels: Celtics, KG, NBA, Wow the Eastern Conference Sucks
Boston Celtics Rebuilding Plan, Version 4.9.2.4824...
Let me begin by saying one thing: I'm not much for using my imagination any more than I have to. I prefer to have things cut and dried, laid out before me. I choose what I like or don't like, and that's that.
Which is why last night's NBA draft threw me a complete curveball. For the past week or so, all Celtics' fans have heard about was "We're getting KG... no, Marion... no, Jermaine O'Neal... wait, maybe Kobe?" Then, for awhile, it looked like the C's were going to package Paul Pierce up and start from scratch. Again. Which probably would have made me cut the last shred of a tie that I have with the team.
Then came yesterday. The news started crawling along that a package was in the works with Seattle, basically centering around Ray Allen for the #5 overall pick in the draft, with contracts to be added. When I first heard about it, I was not a fan. Ray Allen, though a great scorer when his shot is on, is essentially a better outside shooting version of Paul Pierce, or worse yet, Antoine Walker. Plus, he's coming off of double-ankle surgery this offseason - not exactly a gold star for someone who relies on a jump shot. And naturally, he's on a max contract.
Not to mention my assumption that any trade offer for a guy with Allen's reputation would probably have to include either Gerald Green, Al Jefferson or the only real trading chip the C's had, Theo Ratliff's contract.
But then the reports started trickling in - Ray Allen and the Sonics' 2nd round pick for the #5, Delonte West and Wally Szcerbiak's yearly knee injury. Well hey now, that's a whole different story. Somehow, Danny Ainge managed to pull off what, on the surface, looks like a no-brainer trade. They gave away a the #5 draft pick in a 2-man draft (3 if you count Horford), a 1/2 hybrid player in WEst who, though he improved immensly last year, will probably never be able to handle PG or SG duties exclusively in the NBA, and a major contract for a very good shooter who can't play defense or stay on the floor.
What they got in return was a major contract for a very good shooter who can't play defense or stay on the floor and a hugely underrated big man in the second round ("Big Baby" Davis), assuming he can get his weight in check. Plus, Davis should have a chip on his shoulder, since he was expecting to go in the teens and somehow slipped to #35 overall.
Right now, the C's have an Opening Night starting five of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Al Jefferson and either Davis or Kedrick Perkins. That's not too bad - two max veterans with something left to prove in pursuit of a ring, and a handful of very good, very affordable young guys. Plus they managed to hold on to their only real tradeable contract, and the player with the most "Imagination potential" in Gerald Green.
Sure, they might give up 115 points a night, since Ray Allen has never played defense well, and Paul Pierce has slipped lately (in fact, that could be a real problem since players will drive the lane and draw contact calls on Jefferson, Perkins and Davis), but if they can score 120, the numbers will even out.
They probably don't win the East next year - I'll settle for an Atlantic Division title and a Top-4 playoff seed, preferrably advancing at least one round. But they just got a hell of a lot better than the team that was desperate to land a top-2 draft pick three months ago.
Lata.
Labels: Celtics, Draft, NBA, NBA Draft, Playoffs here we come, Trade
This is why they keep building casinos in the desert
Because it's a gamble. Life's a gamble. No sure things in life - not even when you are guaranteed a 25% chance at a Top-2 draft pick in an absolutely loaded draft.
I'll give you all a second to recover from the fact that I'm leading my first new sports post in almost a month by talking about the NBA.
Here's the thing - I'm not the biggest NBA basketball fan in the world. I support the C's only because they're from Boston, and I think Paul Pierce is a hell of a good player going to waste. I also think that the NBA Draft Lottery this past Tuesday night was one of the biggest clusterfucks I've ever seen.
I've never seen a draft in which the teams with the
three best chances to land the top pick got bumped to 4th, 5th and 6th. Worse yet, I can't even fall back to the old ideas of the NBA Lottery being rigged - I cannot imagine any scenario under which the league would have wanted two of the biggest stars in the last 20 years to end up in Portland and Seattle. Of course, the same could be said about Cleveland and Denver back in '03; although the league
tried to hand Detroit a marquee player in Carmelo Anthony - the Pistons just flat out blew that one.
Back to this lottery. It's a gamble - the Grizzlies, Celtics, Bucks and Hawks all gambled last season that if they completely rolled over on their fans and raised the white flag back in January, they'd have a marquee player - a franchise savior, if you will - to run out on the hardwood for 82 games next season.
They all gambled - they all lost.
Nights like Tuesday (and mornings like Wednesday, when I finally got the news) are the reason that sometimes it's a good thing that I no longer have cable TV. There's a pretty good chance I would have broken something (or someone) if I'd been watching the Lottery live, and I don't even care about the NBA that much.
I can't imagine what it's like back home in Boston right now. I've
read the colums, I've finally turned on the
WEEI webstream, and it's unbelievably depressing. It's a damned good thing the Sox are in first place (and by such a wide margin) - otherwise, this story could end up being all consuming.
There are two (and so far,
only two) optomistic ways to spin this for the C's. First - they were not as bad as their record would show this year. Injuries and inexperience contributed to their abyssmal win/loss numbers more than anything else. They only finished with 24 wins, but with a healthy Pierce and Jefferson for all 82 they probably should have won 32-36. Not exactly world beaters, but the #8 seed in the Eastern playoffs this year (Orlando) only had 40 wins. So maybe the 5th pick is much, much higher than they should be picking. Philadelphia had 35 wins and got the 12th pick.
And, second... another year like this one and they'll be right back in the Lottery hunt in '08 - with a Top-5 pick this season to build on. That might not bea silver lining, but at least it's something.
Lata.
Labels: Celtics, Gambling, Lottery, NBA
