2008 NFL Draft
Alright everybody. I’ve been studying. I’ve read everything I can get my hands on relating to this year’s NFL Draft. I’ve watched countless hours of Mel Kiper & Todd McShay arguing about Glenn Dorsey’s knees, Vernon Gholston’s arm strength and Matt Ryan’s presence. And after all that, I’ve come up with this analysis of the 2008 NFL Draft. Ready?
I’m about 97% certain that Jake Long, offensive tackle from Michigan, is going to be picked #1 overall by the Dolphins. After that, well as always, it’s pretty much a crapshoot. Hope you haven’t come here looking for some type of competent breakdown of the entire first round of the draft, because let’s face it guys – none of us ever get it right.
Jake Long, well that’s the gimme. Since he’s already had the press conference in a Dolphins cap and expressed how happy he is to be in Miami, I’d say it’s a done deal. Let’s just roll through the rest of the top 10 because let’s face it – after the first 10 picks, most of us are in a Kiper Coma on the couch anyway.
2. St. Louis Rams
Chris Long, DE – Virginia. It’s a coin flip between Long & Glenn Dorsey here for the Rams. Long has the advantage of an NFL pedigree, and he allows them to move Adam Carrikker back to D-Tackle and improve their pass rush.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan, QB – Boston College. No brainer, unless they try to trade down since nobody from 4-7 really needs a QB. There’s a risk involved in that move though, as the Ravens at pick #8 are praying that Ryan slips to someone they can trade up with for whatever reason. But the Falcons have to know by now that Byron Leftwich & Joey Harrington aren’t going to cut it this season.
4. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB – Arkansas. I can’t imagine a situation in which Al Davis passes on the big time offensive threat, even when the defense is getting older and slowing down. McFadden is the obvious choice here, even with the money they’ve spent on Dominic Rhodes & Lamont Jordan the past two offseasons. However, if Davis isn’t the one calling the shots here, look for a defensive presence – either Dorsey or Gholston.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Glenn Dorsey, DE – LSU. The Chiefs have plenty of time to pick up a densive lineman to replace the newly departed Jared Allen – in fact, since they got another first rounder out of the deal, they could use it to get his replacement. But this pick gives them an impact defender on an abysmal defensive line that ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed last season but was top 10 in passing yards allowed and sacks recorded. Why wait when you can get him here?
6. New York Jets
Vernon Gholston, DE/LB – Ohio State. I just don’t think there’s anyway this kid lives up to the hype he’s created for himself. He’s not Mike Mamula, but he was a middle of the road prospect until he showed up in Indianapolis and showed off his biceps. If he gets put into a system that showcases his skills, or if he gets moved to LB full time, he could be a good defensive player for a long time. But I don’t think he’s got what it takes to bang bodies on the line in the NFL.
7. New England Patriots
Keith Rivers, LB – USC. Let me start by saying I’m almost 100% convinced that the Patriots do not keep this pick. But if somehow the Pats do keep it, they take a cornerback (Cromartie?) or linebacker (Rivers), because D-Line is probably the one spot in New England (besides QB) that should be set for the next five years. There’s all kind of talk about the Saints and/or Bengals trying to move up, both of whom are in love with Sedrick Ellis. Cincy has the #9 pick, New Orleans has the #10. And if I’m New England, I’m moving this pick to whichever team offers me a first round flip with a third rounder and next year’s first or second. With all the holes Cincy needs to fill, I can’t see them offering that much. (Also, if New England’s smart – which they’ve proven to be – they take the newly acquired third rounder and package it with their own second rounder and make a play to Miami for Jason Taylor. Picks #63 and either 73 or 74 overall in the draft might be enough to get Taylor away from the Dolphins, even if Belichick & Parcells would have to shake hands to make it happen.)
8. Baltimore Ravens
Antonio Rodgers-Cormartie, CB – Tennessee State. The Ravens obviously are more in need of a stable quarterback than another big playmaker on defense. But if Ryan’s off the board, the next QB will be one of either Brian Brohm, Joe Flacco or Chad Henne. None of those three are top-10 picks, so the Ravens will either have to trade down (or use other picks to trade back up later in the round) or else take the best available player that they feel like fits their team. A star CB with big play potential certainly fits that bill.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Jerod Mayo, LB – Tennessee. Plenty of options to choose from in the 9-hole, but I think the Bengals are going to need to focus on fixing their defense this year. Side Note: How in the hell did Cincy turn down a first and a third round pick for Chad Johnson? Especially when the third rounder could turn into as much as another first?!? Good God – never before has a team been offered a five quarters for a dollar trade after the dollar has publicly said that they don’t want to be in that particular wallet anymore, and the Bengals decided to turn it down? Are they expecting more for their disgruntled dollar? Perhaps five quarters and a dime? Sometimes sports makes no sense to me – the only explanation I can come up with is that Marvin Lewis doesn’t want to give in and trade Chad away because he’s afraid that anyone on the team who doesn’t like his approach will immediately go to the media and whine about the situation to try and get traded. Thing is – that’s what happens anyway.
10. New Orleans Saints
Sedrick Ellis, DE – USC. I’m writing this as if New Orleans is actually making this pick. Honestly, I believe the Saints end up with Ellis at #7 overall, and the Pats grab Rivers here. Either way, New Orleans could use a little more help on the O-Line and Pitt’s Jeff Otah would be hard to pass up here, but Rivers is the best LB still available, and the Saints’ defense was absolutely awful in ’07.
I could go on and on about the rest of the round, or even the draft, but let’s face it – I’ll be stunned if I’ve gotten even three of these picks right. Except Jake Long. I’m feeling pretty confident about that one.
Last year, I live-blogged the NFL Draft from a golf course. Or at least, I attempted to. Things didn’t work out so well after my cell phone/PDA battery decided that 45 minutes of combined battery life were more than enough for one day. This year, I’ve got a newer, better cell phone/PDA with almost three hours of life… and even more importantly, I’ll be home in front of my TV! I’m not planning a full live-blog, but I am going to try to login a couple times per round at least through the first and drop some informational nuggets out there for all of you to enjoy.
Other quick notes before I bow out for the night:
n It was very nice to have the Bruins semi-relevant in this area again, if only for a couple weeks. I stayed away from writing about them last week because I didn’t want to seem like every other writer who jumped off the bandwagon years ago and just got back on in time for the postseason. Two years ago, I wrote this post about the state of the NHL. And until about two months ago, I stood by everything I had said. But then I slowly started flipping channels and coming across VersusHD (thank God!)… and then I started checking out the standings and realizing that the sport wasn’t nearly as dead as it was last season… and then ESPN started showing me more and more NHL highlights, and suddenly I was right back into it. I will freely admit that I probably watched 30 hockey games total this year, and most of them were Penguins games back when I was still in the ‘burgh. But I’m very glad to have hockey back in my life. Now, if the Bruins could just find a way to never play the Canadians again…
n I had actually planned to jump on here last week and write a quick breakdown of the first round of the NBA playoffs. But it turns out that I have even less time to do stuff now that I’m not working a normal 9-5 job anymore. My days are all screwed up when I spend 14-18 hours one day playing cards, then the next two days trying to catch up on sleep. Anyway, for the record, I have the Celtics (duh) in four, Magic in five, Cavs (don’t EVER trash talk LeBron… duh) in six, and Pistons in six winning in the East, with the Spurs in five, Hornets in five, Jazz in six & Lakers in five in the West. I know – really going out on a limb there taking the top four seeds in each conference. After that, I’ve got the Celtics in six over Cleveland, Magic in seven over Detroit, Lakers in six over Utah and Spurs in five over New Orleans. Finally, I like the Celtics in six over Orlando and Lakers in seven over the Spurs. I’m leaving the Finals alone for now. Too far away to start guessing at that.
I should be on here tomorrow, even if it’s only for a couple of quick-hit posts during the NFL Draft. See you all then.
Lata.
Labels: Draft, NBA, NFL, NHL, Playoffs, Postseason
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