The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

2007 NFL Picks - Divisional Round

Ah mediocrity. "You don't have to be first, just don't finish last" My cousin gave me that advice back in high school, and I've more or less adopted it as my personal credo in life, work and picking football games against the spread.

I started this playoff season off 2-2 (though to be fair, the Jags' line moved from (-2) to (-3) only about 6 hours before I posted on Saturday... Jags(-2) would have been a push. But I digress), just after lamenting my innate ability to plow through four playoff seasons at exactly .500.

Meh. There's 7 games left in this playoff season. Let's shoot for... oh... five over .500 by the time we're done? Three? Not asking for much.

With four games this week, gamblers have one last shot for decent payoffs with parlays & teasers, not to mention the always popular (and rarely profitable) prop bets. I just hope I don't make the same prop bet mistake I made three years ago and fail to follow my instincts...

Let's just go into the picks for the week. Lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 5:45pm Wednesday (a little early this week... more details later). Home teams in CAPS.

PACKERS (-8) over Seahawks: Hardest line of the week for me to pick. I loved how the Seahawks looked last week, but let's face it - that was a home game, in the hardest stadium in the NFL for opposing teams, with Todd Collins under center on the other side of the field. This is a road game, in probably the second hardest stadium for opposing teams, with Brett Favre under center on the other side of the field. Not exactly the same thing. The biggest question I have is how a young team like the Pack will respond to having a bye week. Will they be refreshed or rusty? Although, when it comes right down to it... I just can't back a team whose kicker is wearing battery operated pants. Something inherently wrong about that. Pick: Packers 31, Seahawks 20.

Jaguars @ PATRIOTS: We'll come back to this one...

COLTS (-9) over Chargers: Not like I thought the Chargers had any chance of winning this game anyway, but the fact that Antonio Gates is "iffy" with a dislocated toe... no. Not happening. No cover, no way. Even with most of the Colts not really playing in about 10 quarters, they should be able to handle this week. Pick: Colts 28, Chargers 13

Giants (+7.5) over COWBOYS: No idea how effective Terrell Owens is going to be in this game. More importantly, the Cowboys aren't playing like the #1 seed in the NFC right now. Sure they laid down for the Redskins two weeks ago, and haven't really had a good game since they dispatched the Favre-less Packers in Week 13, or since they dismantled the soon-to-be 4-12 Jets in Week 12. On the flip side, the Giants have played pretty well since their Week 13 win @ Chicago (even though Eli Manning has been as inconsistent as ever). I’m backing the Giants, with a caveat – if T.O. is reported between now and Sunday to be at least 90%, I’ll flip to Dallas. His presence changes everything. Pick(s): Cowboys 23, Giants 17 OR Cowboys 34, Giants 13. I really think he makes that much of a difference.

Jaguars (+13) over PATRIOTS: Couple things to consider here. First – the Patriots haven’t really blown an opponent out since Week 11 against the Bills. They’ve won by 3, 3, 21, 10, 21, 3 against teams with a combined 38-58 record. The 21-point win against the Steelers was only a 1-point game at the half, and the other 21-point win was against the juggernaut 1-15 Miami Dolphins. Now, the Pats are not losing this game. Not at home, and not to this team. But I honestly believe that the Jaguars’ ability to run the ball should be enough to keep the Patriots’ offense off the field and keep this a low scoring game. Even with a week off, the Pats’ have one of the oldest linebacking corps in the league, something that cost them in the AFC Title Game last year and that could come back to bite them in the ass against a hard running team like Jacksonville. Pick: Patriots 27, Jaguars 20.

On a personal note… one thing above all else terrifies me about this Patriots’ game on Saturday. For the second time in three years, I will probably miss most of it. In 2006, I was on a flight from Providence to San Diego via Chicago for a yearly conference while the Patriots were getting hosed in Denver. It was the first time I had missed a Patriots playoff game in seven years, since a 1999 playoff loss to… the Jaguars.

Last year, I was scheduled to be on a flight during the second half of the AFC Championship game, but I missed the plane and was able to watch the game in its entirety. Didn’t work out so well. This year, I’ll be in flight to San Diego again, this time through Dallas, and will probably miss at least the first half of the game. Even though I’m usually not the least bit superstitious, I’m actually a little worried.

So that’s it and that’s all. I’ll be taking my laptop with me for my conference, so I might hop on and blog with thoughts. Let’s hope they’re good thoughts.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 6:03 PM