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2007 NFL Picks - Week 17

There's a serious problem with gambling on football in the final week of the season - more often than not, the games mean nothing. Looking at this week's schedule, there are exactly 6 of 16 games with legitimate bearing, either on the playoffs or on history.

So, basically, if you actually wager this week, it might be time to look into getting some help. And don't point fingers - I haven't had a dollar on a game since about Week 7. Not coincidentally, the same time that my picks started getting good again.

So when it comes to making picks on the games, it's basically a crapshoot. Which teams are going to sit their players, which teams just don't give a shit about the game, which players are more interested in the hot blonde in the front row than the hot route they're supposed to run. Essentially - take my advice at your own risk.

Lines from Bodog.com, and accurate as of 7pm Saturday night. Home teams in CAPS. 6-9-1 last week for a season record of 118-113-12. Just hoping to stay over .500 from here on out, and start fresh in the playoffs...

GIANTS (+14) over Patriots: This game could go one of two ways - either the Pats blow the wheels out in the first half and just roll over the Giants, then sit everyone in the second half leading to a garbage cover, or it's close going to halftime, both teams keep the starters in until about the 4th, and it's (at most) a 13-point win. Both teams have just gotta hope for no injuries.
Bills (+8) over EAGLES: I'm sure there's a reason for this, but with two teams that aren't making the playoffs, I've got to believe that an 8-8 finish for Buffalo means a hell of a lot more than it does for Philadelphia.
BUCS (-3) over Panthers: In one of many "Worst possible scenarios" this week, the Bucs are sitting everybody to get ready for the Giants next week. Meaning there's a good chance this game finishes with a total of 10 points scored.
DOLPHINS (+3) over Bengals: There are 10 teams that can theoretically finish at 6-10, 7-9, or 8-8. All of them are fighting for nothing more than a draft spot, so I'll take the team that's already locked up the #1 overall pick. Anybody follow that logic?
PACKERS (-5.5) over Lions: It's like nobody wants the #1 overall seed in the NFC. The Cowboys had it, then choked to the Eagles. The Packers just had to beat the Bears & Lions, but coughed one up in Chicago last week. Not that it matters this year, but it would still be nice for someone to pretend like they want to win.
TEXANS (-6.5) over Jaguars: See Bills, Buffalo. The Texans have a lot more to gain in future momentum than the Jaguars would theoretically lose by slowing down a little before a physical Round One game in either San Diego or Pittsburgh.
BEARS (+1.5) over Saints: New Orleans still has something to play for. It might be the longest of long shots, but they've still got a chance. Of course, they have to win on the road, in the cold of Chicago. Not happening.
Seahawks (Pk) over FALCONS: Raise your hand if, at any point in the past 13 weeks, you thought this line would be a "Pick-'Em" less than 24 hours before kickoff without any major injuries to Seattle players... If your hand is up, you're lying.
49ers (+10) over BROWNS: Browns win, Niners cover. This game becomes meaningless if the Titans win at Indy later in the night, but in the quirk of all quirks if both Tennessee and Cleveland lose, Cleveland gets the playoff berth. Talk about backing into a playoff spot...
REDSKINS (-9) over Cowboys: Not only do the Redskins still have a lot to play for, but the Cowboys are sitting just about anybody who has started a game on offense in the first 15 weeks. By the way - I take back everything I said about the Skins after Sean Taylor's death - they are playing with more motivation than any team I've seen in a long time.
Steelers (-3.5) over Ravens: I don't care how many players Pittsburgh sits, they're not losing to the Ravens. And they shouldn't have trouble covering 3.5 points. Baltimore is a lost team. They need help in at least three different positions, not counting Head Coach. And they look like they packed it in for the season with about 30 seconds to go in the Patriots' game.
Vikings (-3) over BRONCOS: I don't think I've correctly picked a Broncos game yet this season, so why start now, right? Just can't seem to figure these guys out.
Chargers (-9) over RAIDERS: San Diego is still playing for a chance to avoid Jacksonville in Round one (though Tennessee wouldn't be much easier). Although I've been calling for it all season, I actually feel bad for JaMarcus Russell having to make his first start under center this week. Tough way to learn kid - good luck.
Rams (+6) over CARDINALS: In yet another "who gives a crap game", offense should be on display in this one. Two teams with electric passing games and no semblance of a defense. Can't figure out why the O/U is only 48... seems a little low.
JETS (-6) over Chiefs: Might be Chad Pennington's final game as a Jet. Think the fans boo him off the field, y'know - for old time's sake?
COLTS (+4.5) over Titans: Just because the Colts are sitting Peyton Manning, and probably Joseph Addai & Reggie Wayne, it's not like the rest of th team is packing it in too. And if the Browns manage to choke away the game to the Niners, maybe the Titans get a little complacent...

RECAP: GIANTS / Bills / BUCS / DOLPHINS / PACKERS / TEXANS / BEARS / Seahawks / 49ers / REDSKINS / Steelers / Vikings / Chargers / Rams / JETS / COLTS

Just hoping for no worse than 6-10 this week. Just do enough to stay over .500 for the season.

See you in the playoffs. Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 8:40 PM