The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

I survived...

...Though barely. My bankroll, however, did not.

I've been home for a little over a week now, still trying to sort out exactly what went wrong in my twenty days in Las Vegas through June & July. For the time being, let's just call it a bad experience, on the whole.

As I wrote in the last post from Vegas (wow, it's really been two weeks? Yikes...) I never would have booked the second trip had I known the truth about the freeroll tournament at the Harrah's casino. I'm still pissed about that one. So chalk it all up to bad information, I guess.

For now, I'm focusing on a couple of blogging projects back here at home, and nursing the bankroll back to health with small money cash games and cheap tournaments at Foxwoods.

As for what's going on over here, well I'm planning to write up my yearly NFL Preview Post sometime in the next 3-5 weeks, before the official beginning of training camp. Expect many jokes at Brett Favre's expense, and the expense of whichever team is stupid enough to allow him onto their 53-man roster. And as in the past, there will be a weekly NFL Picks post coming every Friday. This year, though, it's going to be a little different.

Those of you that found my site as an off-shoot from the danshanoff.com blog have probably already found your way over to the new ds.com commenters page, hosted at Sparty & Friends. Well, the good men who moderate that site - Sparty, Trey & Marco - have graciously given me a forum for the weekly NFL Picks post. So on this site, I'll post a small teaser (or maybe just a quick 2-line post with an introduction), followed by a link over to the Sparty & Friends blog. Here's hoping it's a win-win for everyone. Also, here' hoping I don't screw up the use of the "royal we" that they have so artfully adopted over there.

Back again soon with a baseball post or two before kicking off the NFL season.

Lata.

Labels: Gambling, Las Vegas, NFL, NFL Picks, poker, Sparty and Friends

posted by Big D @ 10:40 PM 1 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Super Bowl XLII

Just get it over with already.

Seriously. Just get it over with. Start the pregame shows, start the game, have the crappy halftime show, crown a winner and get tne Miami Dolphins on the clock.

It's sad that a die hard football fan such as myself has grown to have this attitude, especially considering that my team is actually in the game. I can't imagine what non-Giants / non-Patriots fans must be feeling like. I actually feel sorry for Jets fans.

No, wait. That's not right. I can never feel sorry for a Jets fan. Ignore that last statement - it's late and I've had a long week.

What I'm driving at here is that the 2-week period leading up to the Super Bowl is too much. Fifteen years or more ago, it would have been perfect - the Internet was still in it's infancy, reporters could take their time fleshing out a good story, and fans could read or watch it, digest it, talk about it, and move on.

Now, every story is dead before the next morning's sun can hit it. Fans are bored of hearing the same pundits take the same stance on the same issues, and even more bored of hearing those pundits change sides because some non-issue pops up in the middle of the week.

Tom Brady has a limp. The Patriots might have used a video camera seven years ago. Plaxico Burress said something without first thinking about how it would play in every media outlet from Tuscon to Tokyo.

The only time an issue can pop up during Super Bowl week is if:
A) There's a legitimate injury. As a gambler, I'm terrified about Plax's legs. I couldn't care less about Brady's ankle.
B) Someone actually insults the other team or players/coaches. See Bradshaw, Terry and something about spelling "CAT".
C) A player/coach gets arrested or into some form of accident. Call it the Eugene Robinson rule.
D) There's a massive storm heading for the site of the Super Bowl. Last year's game was a perfect example of this - I was stunned that the line didn't move more towards the Bears once the announcement was made of "Hurricane-like conditions" in Miami.

That's it. For all the talking points, talking heads, and just talking, not much actually affects the outcome of the game itself. And as fans, most of us are sophisticated enough to understand what's important and what's not. It would just be nice to not have to try to decipher two weeks of junk and condense it into about three hours of important information.

That's enough ranting for today. Onto the pick itself.

For the past five years, I've picked the Super Bowl incorrectly on the spread, and I'm 3-2 on only correctly picking the winning team. I'm really hoping to break that 0-fer this year. So here goes.

The Pick: Patriots 38, Giants 17. The way I see this game shaking out, I think the Pats take an early lead and hold on to it. I think the game gets close in the second half, but ultimately I think the Pats' experience holds up against the Giants, and a couple of late turnovers will make this game seem like much more of a blowout than it actually is going to be.

I expect a close game for at least two and a half quarters, if not three or more. I expect bettors everywhere to go crazy towards the end, when a late TD for the Pats or turnover for the Giants kills any chance of New York covering...

And I fully expect to look like a fool on Monday when the Patriots win by three. Again.

So there you have it. Short and sweet. No 10,000 word opus, no ranting and raving about the latest spying allegations, no snappy comeback for the commenter from last week's post regarding the fact that the NFL doesn't suspend players for four games for "Substance Abuse" for a legal substance like alcohol. None of that. Well, maybe some of it...

Not sure when I'll be back here with uninsightful sporting commentary. I've moved back to Massachusetts for awhile, so I'll be even more Boston-focused than I previously was (if that's even possible). I can feel you rolling your eyes already...

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs, Super Bowl

posted by Big D @ 11:33 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Championship Round

So much to cover in such a short period of time. Before breaking into the picks, a couple of random thoughts from the past couple of weeks.

1) The West Coast is far too nice to ever visit without immediately wishing you didn't have to leave. I just came back from a five day trip to San Diego, where the average temperature was about 63 degrees, followed up by a return flight to Pittsburgh where the temperture was 23 with a light snowfall. And the doors & windows in my car were frozen shut. Guh. More on this discussion later...

2) Note to anyone out there who takes taxis regularly. If you happen to be in a situation where you might need to be in the cab for awhile, put in headphones. I found this out the hard way when I took a cab to the SD Airport Wednesday morning and decided to have a conversation with the driver rather than listen to the iPod. As soon as he found out that I worked in a hospital (my actual 9-5 job) he started asking medical questions. Which eventually led to him talking - albeit in fairly broken English - about his medical problems. Which then led to him asking for my opinion on different types of medications. I won't go into detail, but I'll tell you this - I should have stopped the conversation when he tried to ask about "Tapestries that you put in the richter..."

3) The Mitchell Report, the fallout, and the subsequent new round of hearings and FBI investigation into Miguel Tejada's responses to the government (?!?!) are an abolute joke. There is not one thing in the Mitchell Report that was "news". Not one name surprised me - including Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, or Brian Roberts. The fact that the US Government sees a need to intervene and waste time & money with rounds of hearings and investigations makes me unbelieveably angry, and sad. If I wasn't so apathetic about politics, I might consider doing something about it. Maybe a strongly worded letter...

4) I really can't stand watching NBA games anymore. You can watch 15 total minutes - the end of each half - and get the entire point of the game. Of course, as I write this the Bulls & Warriors are spending almost 15 minutes (with two commercial breaks and seven - seven - personal fouls) to play out the final 41.2 seconds of regulation in a game that is going to end as a Warriors win by 8 points. Insane.

5) I gave serious thought to driving home to Massachusetts tomorrow to surprise a couple of people this weekend for birthday parties, and to watch the AFC Title game with people who actually care about it. The average Pittsburgh fan has either switched into full Penguins-support mode (so Sidney Crosby's injury today may have thrown this city into a sports-depression until next year's Steelers mini-camps), or is actively preparing for the 2008 NFL Combine. I'm expecting it to be very difficult to find a decent place to watch the game Sunday, so I'll probably stay home and watching it in my bedroom. Again: Guh...

Speaking of the games, let's get down to the picks. Had an astonishing 3-1 week in the Divisional Round, pushing the playoff record to 5-3, and even correctly picked the Seahawks & Jaguars to each score 20 points. Of course, I also picked the Colts to win by 15 and the Giants to cover but not win outright... Hey, a win is a win.

Onto the games in this weekend's Championship Round. Lines from Bodog.com, and accurate as of 1AM Saturday Morning. I'm bored. Lots on my mind - might as well write. Home teams in CAPS, as always.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Giants: I actually like this line better at (-7) as it was a couple hours ago, and I like it a whole lot better at (-1.5) after it gets teased down. Either way, I think the Packers are the best team in the NFC, and have been saying that for about five weeks now. As much as the Giants are the NFC's hottest team for the past two months (12-4 since losing to the Packers in Week 2), they're not a better team that this incarnation of the Pack. Factor in the predicted weather conditions, the fact that every person outside of the tri-state area is pulling for Brett Favre, and that (even though he's been pretty good as of late) Eli Manning is still involved in the game, I can't pick the Giants to cover that line. Pick: Packers 34, Giants 23

Chargers @ PATRIOTS: You know, even as I was typing the Colts/Chargers pick from last week ("Not like I thought the Chargers had any chance of winning this game anyway, but the fact that Antonio Gates is "iffy" with a dislocated toe... no. Not happening. No cover, no way."), I was thinking to myself - if the Chargers somehow manage to cover or win this thing outright, I'm going to feel like an idiot. I even originally had a line written in about a reverse-jinx, trying like hell to have the Pats avoid the Colts in the AFC Title Game.

Then the improbable happened, and the Chargers shocked the Colts, and suddenly not only did I feel like an idiot, but I realized that the Patriots were hosting the AFC Title game, in 10-20 degree weather, against a San Diego team that could be missing any or all of Philip Rivers, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates. I even sent out a text message to a handful of friends on Sunday night that said “I’ll put the opening line at Pats (-21)”. I was only half-joking.

I was close. As of right now, it’s Pats (-14). And I’m completely torn on which side I’m taking.

First things first – I’m not making any proclamations about the Patriots invincibility and the inevitability of a win. Learned my lesson last week.

But in all honesty, what to make of that line, and this game? The Chargers are the hottest team in football not hailing from Foxboro. They’ve won eight straight, and with the exception of the overtime game in Tennessee in Week 14, none have really been close.

Gates will probably play. Tomlinson will probably play. Rivers isn’t practicing, and is rumored to have one sprained MCL and one torn ACL, but somehow he says he’s going to play. Not like he’s a mobile QB anyway.

On the Patriots’ side of the ball, not only does the implied “pressure” of 19-0 mount with every game, but now they have even more distractions to deal with in the form of assault allegations against Randy Moss.

(Quick aside: I just spent five days in San Diego, including Sunday when the Chargers upset the Colts. I know that most of this country despises Boston sports fans, if not Boston sports teams. But there is no group of fans more smug, more cocky, and more unlikable than Chargers fans. And to me, it stems from one thing – no matter how many times you tell them, they just don’t seem to get it: You ain’t won shit. Ever. Stop talking about your team like they’re the three-time reigning Super Bowl champs – the Chargers have won exactly six playoff games in their history since the 1969 merger. Six. In 38 years. I just don’t get it.)

This was already shaping up to be a pretty damned good game. The Chargers have payback on their minds not only for the thrashing the Patriots gave them in Week 2, but also for last years’ playoff loss. The Patriots have a date with destiny, and if there is one team that can overcome pressure and distractions, it’s this incarnation of the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots 27, Chargers 10

For the record, I’m ecstatic that I have no money on any game this week. Not only do I get the chance to enjoy one of the best weekends in quite awhile, but I don’t have to constantly run through scoring scenarios in my head for a back-door cover.

And finally, a quick life update. By Super Bowl Sunday on February 3^rd, I’ll be living somewhere else. Might be back in Massachusetts, might be in Vegas, California, Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Canada, New York, or any other possibility. (By the way – I listed those places in order of preference from best to worst… I shudder at having to live in Canada or New York). But wherever it is, it won’t be Pittsburgh. Things didn’t work out here, so I’m leaving by the end of this month.

Hopefully I’ll be settled in wherever I end up in time for the annual MLB Preview post. But whatever happens, I’ll keep up with posting here. I passed the four-year blogging mark back in October, and I like it so much, I’m going to shoot for five.

Back in time for SB XLII...

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 12:22 AM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Divisional Round

Ah mediocrity. "You don't have to be first, just don't finish last" My cousin gave me that advice back in high school, and I've more or less adopted it as my personal credo in life, work and picking football games against the spread.

I started this playoff season off 2-2 (though to be fair, the Jags' line moved from (-2) to (-3) only about 6 hours before I posted on Saturday... Jags(-2) would have been a push. But I digress), just after lamenting my innate ability to plow through four playoff seasons at exactly .500.

Meh. There's 7 games left in this playoff season. Let's shoot for... oh... five over .500 by the time we're done? Three? Not asking for much.

With four games this week, gamblers have one last shot for decent payoffs with parlays & teasers, not to mention the always popular (and rarely profitable) prop bets. I just hope I don't make the same prop bet mistake I made three years ago and fail to follow my instincts...

Let's just go into the picks for the week. Lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 5:45pm Wednesday (a little early this week... more details later). Home teams in CAPS.

PACKERS (-8) over Seahawks: Hardest line of the week for me to pick. I loved how the Seahawks looked last week, but let's face it - that was a home game, in the hardest stadium in the NFL for opposing teams, with Todd Collins under center on the other side of the field. This is a road game, in probably the second hardest stadium for opposing teams, with Brett Favre under center on the other side of the field. Not exactly the same thing. The biggest question I have is how a young team like the Pack will respond to having a bye week. Will they be refreshed or rusty? Although, when it comes right down to it... I just can't back a team whose kicker is wearing battery operated pants. Something inherently wrong about that. Pick: Packers 31, Seahawks 20.

Jaguars @ PATRIOTS: We'll come back to this one...

COLTS (-9) over Chargers: Not like I thought the Chargers had any chance of winning this game anyway, but the fact that Antonio Gates is "iffy" with a dislocated toe... no. Not happening. No cover, no way. Even with most of the Colts not really playing in about 10 quarters, they should be able to handle this week. Pick: Colts 28, Chargers 13

Giants (+7.5) over COWBOYS: No idea how effective Terrell Owens is going to be in this game. More importantly, the Cowboys aren't playing like the #1 seed in the NFC right now. Sure they laid down for the Redskins two weeks ago, and haven't really had a good game since they dispatched the Favre-less Packers in Week 13, or since they dismantled the soon-to-be 4-12 Jets in Week 12. On the flip side, the Giants have played pretty well since their Week 13 win @ Chicago (even though Eli Manning has been as inconsistent as ever). I’m backing the Giants, with a caveat – if T.O. is reported between now and Sunday to be at least 90%, I’ll flip to Dallas. His presence changes everything. Pick(s): Cowboys 23, Giants 17 OR Cowboys 34, Giants 13. I really think he makes that much of a difference.

Jaguars (+13) over PATRIOTS: Couple things to consider here. First – the Patriots haven’t really blown an opponent out since Week 11 against the Bills. They’ve won by 3, 3, 21, 10, 21, 3 against teams with a combined 38-58 record. The 21-point win against the Steelers was only a 1-point game at the half, and the other 21-point win was against the juggernaut 1-15 Miami Dolphins. Now, the Pats are not losing this game. Not at home, and not to this team. But I honestly believe that the Jaguars’ ability to run the ball should be enough to keep the Patriots’ offense off the field and keep this a low scoring game. Even with a week off, the Pats’ have one of the oldest linebacking corps in the league, something that cost them in the AFC Title Game last year and that could come back to bite them in the ass against a hard running team like Jacksonville. Pick: Patriots 27, Jaguars 20.

On a personal note… one thing above all else terrifies me about this Patriots’ game on Saturday. For the second time in three years, I will probably miss most of it. In 2006, I was on a flight from Providence to San Diego via Chicago for a yearly conference while the Patriots were getting hosed in Denver. It was the first time I had missed a Patriots playoff game in seven years, since a 1999 playoff loss to… the Jaguars.

Last year, I was scheduled to be on a flight during the second half of the AFC Championship game, but I missed the plane and was able to watch the game in its entirety. Didn’t work out so well. This year, I’ll be in flight to San Diego again, this time through Dallas, and will probably miss at least the first half of the game. Even though I’m usually not the least bit superstitious, I’m actually a little worried.

So that’s it and that’s all. I’ll be taking my laptop with me for my conference, so I might hop on and blog with thoughts. Let’s hope they’re good thoughts.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 6:03 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Wild Card Round

Ah, the second season. Where the mistakes of the past 4+ months are erased, and everybody's record is reset to 0-0. Where the real games carry a single elimination consequence. And where I usually stink up the joint.

I haven't exactly been outstanding picking playoff games against the spread in the first four playoff seasons since I started this blog. In the '04 playoffs following the '03 season, I finished 7-4. Not bad for a novice. The following playoffs yielded records of 3-8, 7-4 and 5-6, for a grand total of 22-22. Considering I've never had a regular season of .500 or less, I consider 22-22 a failure.

But then there's this year. I had my worst regular season so date, finishing 124-122-13. Although since there are only 256 games in an NFL season, I'm not quite sure how my record ended up with a total of 259 games. Never claimed to be good at math.

Let's get into the picks. With only four games on the schedule for this week and next, these are gamblers last chances to make real parlay and teaser bets. So let's not waste them, ok?

Lines accurate as of 12pm Saturday, and as always are taken from Bodog.com. Home teams in CAPS. And away we go...

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins: Considering the 3-point home teams' advantage... you really mean to tell me that the oddsmakers only think Seattle is a half-point better than Washington if this were being played on a neutral field? So, a team that was in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago is only a half point better than one being coached by a man whose was next in line for the axe five weeks ago? And a team with one former MVP and another former MVP candidate as their running-back and quarterback is only a half-point better than a team being quarterbacked by a career backup who hadn't started a game in 10 years? OK, you keep on thinking that - I'm taking the Seahawks in a rout: 31-14.

Jaguars (-3) over STEELERS: Ridiculous. This line opened at Steelers (-1) and has shifted four full points in a week. It's kind of funny, I live in Pittsburgh (albeit probably not for too much longer) - everyone I meet is ecstatic that their team is in the playoffs, and is 100% convinced that they're not getting past the Jags. That type of collective karma can't be good for a team; just imagine the first time the Steelers suffer a negative play tonight and Heinz field is completely deflated. It's like the old "just happy to be here" conundrum - the Steelers and their fans appear to be happy to have just held off the Browns for the division (something I didn't expect to be writing for at least three more seasons), and now are ready to pack it in for the winter and prepare for a long year of compalining about the Pirates. Add in the Steelers injury losses, and I'll take the Jags, but probably not by as much as some people would expect: 24-20.

BUCS (-3) over Giants: Hold on, I'm just finishing up my loan application so I can bet against Eli Manning in the playoffs on the road... Even with as well as he played in the game last week against the Patriots (and let's be honest, he was fantastic), I have no faith in Eli to continue that trend. And I have even less faith in him to do so with a backup center snapping him the ball. I expect at least one fumbled snap and probably three sacks that can be directly attributed to a missed call on the line. On Tampa's side of the field... just imagine if Jeff Garcia knocks the Giants out of the playoffs for the third time, with a third different team? How long before he ends up buried in the Meadowlands' endzone next to Hoffa?

CHARGERS (-10) over Titans: This line just keeps going up. I think it started around Chargers (-7) and it hasn't looked back. No matter - I'm pretty certain that San Diego should be able to handle a Titans team with either a gimpy Vince Young or a healthy Kerry Collins under center. I'm actually not sure which of those situations would be better for Tennessee. But if nothing else, take the Chargers' money line in this one which is currently at a ridiculous (-600). Might not pay out a lot, but it's a win.

RECAP: SEAHAWKS / Jaguars / BUCS / CHARGERS

Boring, I know. All favorites, and only one road team. For the record, taking the money lines on all the favorites in one Mega-Parlay would currently pay out at just over 4/1. All the underdogs? Just over 63/1.

Back with the Divisional Round games, and maybe even a final Rants & Ranks section. No doubt who is going to be #1 or #32, but what's in between might be a little fun.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 11:41 AM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week 17

There's a serious problem with gambling on football in the final week of the season - more often than not, the games mean nothing. Looking at this week's schedule, there are exactly 6 of 16 games with legitimate bearing, either on the playoffs or on history.

So, basically, if you actually wager this week, it might be time to look into getting some help. And don't point fingers - I haven't had a dollar on a game since about Week 7. Not coincidentally, the same time that my picks started getting good again.

So when it comes to making picks on the games, it's basically a crapshoot. Which teams are going to sit their players, which teams just don't give a shit about the game, which players are more interested in the hot blonde in the front row than the hot route they're supposed to run. Essentially - take my advice at your own risk.

Lines from Bodog.com, and accurate as of 7pm Saturday night. Home teams in CAPS. 6-9-1 last week for a season record of 118-113-12. Just hoping to stay over .500 from here on out, and start fresh in the playoffs...

GIANTS (+14) over Patriots: This game could go one of two ways - either the Pats blow the wheels out in the first half and just roll over the Giants, then sit everyone in the second half leading to a garbage cover, or it's close going to halftime, both teams keep the starters in until about the 4th, and it's (at most) a 13-point win. Both teams have just gotta hope for no injuries.
Bills (+8) over EAGLES: I'm sure there's a reason for this, but with two teams that aren't making the playoffs, I've got to believe that an 8-8 finish for Buffalo means a hell of a lot more than it does for Philadelphia.
BUCS (-3) over Panthers: In one of many "Worst possible scenarios" this week, the Bucs are sitting everybody to get ready for the Giants next week. Meaning there's a good chance this game finishes with a total of 10 points scored.
DOLPHINS (+3) over Bengals: There are 10 teams that can theoretically finish at 6-10, 7-9, or 8-8. All of them are fighting for nothing more than a draft spot, so I'll take the team that's already locked up the #1 overall pick. Anybody follow that logic?
PACKERS (-5.5) over Lions: It's like nobody wants the #1 overall seed in the NFC. The Cowboys had it, then choked to the Eagles. The Packers just had to beat the Bears & Lions, but coughed one up in Chicago last week. Not that it matters this year, but it would still be nice for someone to pretend like they want to win.
TEXANS (-6.5) over Jaguars: See Bills, Buffalo. The Texans have a lot more to gain in future momentum than the Jaguars would theoretically lose by slowing down a little before a physical Round One game in either San Diego or Pittsburgh.
BEARS (+1.5) over Saints: New Orleans still has something to play for. It might be the longest of long shots, but they've still got a chance. Of course, they have to win on the road, in the cold of Chicago. Not happening.
Seahawks (Pk) over FALCONS: Raise your hand if, at any point in the past 13 weeks, you thought this line would be a "Pick-'Em" less than 24 hours before kickoff without any major injuries to Seattle players... If your hand is up, you're lying.
49ers (+10) over BROWNS: Browns win, Niners cover. This game becomes meaningless if the Titans win at Indy later in the night, but in the quirk of all quirks if both Tennessee and Cleveland lose, Cleveland gets the playoff berth. Talk about backing into a playoff spot...
REDSKINS (-9) over Cowboys: Not only do the Redskins still have a lot to play for, but the Cowboys are sitting just about anybody who has started a game on offense in the first 15 weeks. By the way - I take back everything I said about the Skins after Sean Taylor's death - they are playing with more motivation than any team I've seen in a long time.
Steelers (-3.5) over Ravens: I don't care how many players Pittsburgh sits, they're not losing to the Ravens. And they shouldn't have trouble covering 3.5 points. Baltimore is a lost team. They need help in at least three different positions, not counting Head Coach. And they look like they packed it in for the season with about 30 seconds to go in the Patriots' game.
Vikings (-3) over BRONCOS: I don't think I've correctly picked a Broncos game yet this season, so why start now, right? Just can't seem to figure these guys out.
Chargers (-9) over RAIDERS: San Diego is still playing for a chance to avoid Jacksonville in Round one (though Tennessee wouldn't be much easier). Although I've been calling for it all season, I actually feel bad for JaMarcus Russell having to make his first start under center this week. Tough way to learn kid - good luck.
Rams (+6) over CARDINALS: In yet another "who gives a crap game", offense should be on display in this one. Two teams with electric passing games and no semblance of a defense. Can't figure out why the O/U is only 48... seems a little low.
JETS (-6) over Chiefs: Might be Chad Pennington's final game as a Jet. Think the fans boo him off the field, y'know - for old time's sake?
COLTS (+4.5) over Titans: Just because the Colts are sitting Peyton Manning, and probably Joseph Addai & Reggie Wayne, it's not like the rest of th team is packing it in too. And if the Browns manage to choke away the game to the Niners, maybe the Titans get a little complacent...

RECAP: GIANTS / Bills / BUCS / DOLPHINS / PACKERS / TEXANS / BEARS / Seahawks / 49ers / REDSKINS / Steelers / Vikings / Chargers / Rams / JETS / COLTS

Just hoping for no worse than 6-10 this week. Just do enough to stay over .500 for the season.

See you in the playoffs. Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 8:40 PM 0 comments

Week 16 Rants, Ranks, and Picks

I'm making blogging history here folks. Well at least I am on this page. Actually, not really. I've done this once before.

I'm blogging from the airport. (And a hearty "huzzah" comes from the crowd...)

Anyway, I'm flying back to Boston for the holiday, staying at home with family until next Wednesday. So obviously this week was been ridiculously hectic, topped off by a head cold that kept me out of work for two days, and a dislocated finger suffered through sheer stupidity on my part (big shock there). Anyway, what I'm trying to say is... I forgot to put up the weekly ranks on Wednesday. Or the pick for last night's Steelers/Rams game (though with a Steelers (-10.5) line, I was probably taking the Rams anyway... Let's just call it a loss.)

So, from the airport, let's get some abbreviated ranks and picks in here before I board my flight. By the way - for anyone familiar with Pittsburgh traffic... I left my office at 2:45 this afternoon... got to my apartment at about 3:15 (it's 1.2 miles away)... left my apartment at about 3:45... got to the exit for the Fort Pitt tunnel at 4:40 (it's about 7 miles from my apartment)... got through the tunnel at 5:12 (it's about 0.8 miles)... got to the airport about 20 past six. All told, it usually takes 45 minutes to get from my apartment to the airport... glad I left early for my 8:45 flight.

Onto the ranks, then the picks.

The Fave 5

1. New England (14-0): Picked them to win 20-3 last week, and if not fo a fluke blocked-punt-return-for-a-touchdown, they would have. Sometimes I even surprise myself.
2. Green Bay (12-2): Yes, Green Bay. I can't in good conscience put Dallas this high after the stink bomb against the Eagles. Indy rolled over to the Raiders, and probably won't play hard for another 3 weeks. And as good as Jacksonville has looked the past few weeks... I don't believe they could win in Lambeau right now. So that leaves Green Bay...
3. Jacksonville (10-4): But the Jags are just a hair behind the Packers.
4. Indianapolis (12-2): They've got no reason to play hard from now through January.
5. Dallas (12-2): I love the media hype over T.O.'s comments about Jessica Simpson. A caller on WEEI wummed it up nicely a couple days ago "Hey Tony, if you get depressed about everyone giving you crap about dating Jessica Simpson, just remember - you get to go home and f*** JESSICA SIMPSON". Good point by you.
Others receiving votes: Cleveland (they lock up a playoff berth with a win over Cincy this week... impressive stuff, even if they'll lose in Round 1), Pittsburgh (Didn't see it live, but Willie Parker's broken leg last night looked pretty gruesome), San Diego (The only team Cleveland has any shot at beating in the AFC playoffs).

The Foul 5

5. Oakland (4-10): Wasn't their defense suposed to be their strong suit this year? Really?
4. San Francisco (4-10): Damnit! Stop winning games and hurting the Patriots' draft chances!
3. NY Jets (3-11): Maybe it was just the weather, but they actually looked feisty last week. Shades of what could have been, you know, if they had a half-competant team.
2. Atlanta (3-11): Well, you certainly showed Bobby Petrino what he was missing out on when he left the team... oh wait - they lost 37-3? Hmm.....
1. Miami (1-12): Just imagine how bad they'll be the last 2 weeks with absolutely nothing to motivate them...
Others receiving votes: NY Giants (hard to put a 9-5 team here, but does anyone have faith in them in the playoffs? If they even make it...), St Louis (At 3-12 they should be in here, but thy played pretty well against a vastly superior Pittsburgh team last night), Baltimore (Absolutely no hope for this team...)



And quickly, some picks for the Week 16 games. Had a decent go of it last week, finishing 9-7 and bumping the overall record up to 112-104-11. And for the record, all 8 of my teaser specials hit last week. Naturally, I didn't bet it - $50 on an 8-team teaser pays out at about 35-1. You do the math...

Lines accurate as of 6:30pm Friday, and as always, supplied via Bodog.com. Home teams in CAPS.

Cowboys (-11) over PANTHERS: Seems like a good time for Tony Romo to shut up... oh... just about everybody. And two or three long TD passes to #81 oughtta do the trick.
Browns (-3) over BENGALS: This line is pulled as of right now, but I can't imagine why it's only -3 to begin with. The Browns are a far superior team to Cincinnati - remember when their first matchup seemed like an upset win for Cleveland?
Packers (-9) over BEARS: Three straight road favorites, two in hostile stadiums. This week is already shaping up poorly.
COLTS (-7) over Texans: Even without trying, the Colts should be able to beat Sage Rosenfels and the rest of the Texans. But Mario Williams might feast on Jim Sorgi by about the third quarter.
LIONS (-5) over Chiefs: Yeah, sure. Whatever. Who the hell is going to watch this game? I'd be interested to see the ratings numbers outside of these two markets. even the numbers in these markets will probably suck.
BILLS (+3) over Giants: New York needs to win back some respect from just about everyone. even their own fans have lost faith at this point.
Raiders (+14) over JAGUARS: Too many points this late in the season. Even against the Raiders.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Eagles: The Saints still have something left to play for - shouldn't they be a much bigger home favorite? Sometimes I just don't get what the oddsmakers are looking at.
Falcons (+10.5) over CARDINALS: Not sure if the Falcons will score more than 10 points in this entire game, but I've got to think they're more than a little embarrassed about how they played last week. If not, expect a 2TD+ line next week.
Bucs (-6) over 49ERS: C'mon Niners! I know you've got in in you! 2 more losses - you can do it!
PATRIOTS (-22) over Dolphins: Supposed to be lousy weather in New England again this week. Difference from last week - If Cleo Lemon gets hurt, Miami doesn't have a former pro Bowler backing him up.
SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Ravens: Is there anything more humiliating than being the only win on an NFL team's record for the year? I don't see Baltimore recovering, especially not at the hardest stadium in the NFL, with Kyle Boller under center.
Jets (+8.5) over TITANS: Another line that got pulled in the last hour. Still like the Jets here, if only because I don't like Vince Young.
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Redskins: Did we actually think Tarvaris Jackson would be able to ride that wave all the way to the postseason without a hiccup? Even worse - imagine if some "savvy" fantasy GM nabbed him on waivers for the fantasy playoffs... then had that stinkbomb in the first round?
CHARGERS (-9) over Broncos: If San Diego wins out, they probably get the #3 seed and legitimately scare me as a Patriots fan. Not as much as Indy or Jacksonville, but then again - those are probably the two teams the Chargers would have to beat to get to Foxboro.

RECAP: Cowboys / Browns / Packers / COLTS / LIONS / BILLS / Raiders / SAINTS / Falcons / Bucs / PATRIOTS / SEAHAWKS / Jets / VIKINGS / CHARGERS

One more week after this one. 20 games over .500 might be out of reach, but I'll be quite happy with 10 or 15.

Back after the holiday.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 6:06 PM 1 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week 15

Very quick picks today. Been busy and felt lousy this weekend. Sorry 'bout that.

Cardinals (+4) over SAINTS
Falcons (+13) over BUCS
DOLPHINS (+4) over Ravens
BROWNS (-5) over Bills
Packers (-8) over RAMS
Jaguars (+3.5) over STEELERS
Jets (+21) over PATRIOTS (Pats win by 17... 20-3)
Seahawks (-8) over PANTHERS
Titans (-4) over CHIEFS
Colts (-11) over RAIDERS
CHARGERS (-10) over Lions
Eagles (+10) over COWBOYS
Redskins (+6) over GIANTS
VIKINGS (-11) over Bears

That's a lot of road favorites... and a ton of great teaser games (Arizona, Tampa, Cleveland, GB, Seattle, Indy, Chargers & Vikings... wow.)

Back with the real stuff next week.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 12:46 PM 0 comments

207 NFL Season - Week 15 Rants & Ranks

Clearly, today is not the day to be discussing football. Maybe tomorrow with the rest of the picks. For today, let's just jump into the rants & ranks (oops... should have been up here yesterday. Sorry...) and the pick for tonight's Denver/Houston game and the Saturday Mega-Tilt between the 3-10 San Francisco 49ers (led by the immortal Shawn Hill under center, backed up by Chris Weinke) and the Cincinnati Bengals (they of the 5-8 record).


1. New England (13-0): Oops. Looks like somebody woke them up. Any doubt that 16-0 is pretty much sealed up at this point? Any doubt that they don't give a shit unless the season ends at 19-0?
2. Dallas (12-1): All I thought when I saw the final score of this game was "How in the hell did that just happen?"
3. Indianapolis (11-2): Not going to lie - if they get healthy before the playoffs, they still scare the hell out of me.
4. Green Bay (11-2): Playing the flotsam and jetsam of the league like Oakland certainly helps pad their stats, but this team is still pretty damned good.
5. Jacksonville (9-4): In the NFC, they'd probably be undefeated. This team is scary good on defense, and the offense is apparantely a lot better than I thought.

Others receiving votes: Pittsburgh (Only 1 game up on Cleveland now, with the Jags next on the schedule. Good luck with that), Seattle (So maybe they're not as paper thin as I thought they were...), San Diego (Philip Rivers needs to get his team a lead before the final drive of the game).


5. Baltimore (4-9): What a sorry excuse for a team they looked like last week. At least show up for one quarter guys...
4. Atlanta (3-10): I'm no Falcons' fan, but the screw job Bobby Petrino just pulled on those players, fans and owner is downright disgraceful. If you're a Falcons' fan right now, you've gotta think the season was being scripted by Vince MacMahon.
3. San Francisco (3-10): As above... they're starting Shaun Hill with Chris Weinke backing him up. I suppose it could get worse, though I'm not sure how.
2. New York Jets (3-10): Oh, now I know how - they cold be travelling to Foxboro to play a team hell bent on revenge, in a blizzard. I guess that's moderately worse.
1. Miami (0-13): I cannot express how much I want Cam Cameron not go to Michigan, but also to stay in the AFC East for a couple more years.
Others receiving votes: Cincinnati (somehow, 8-8 isn't out of the question for them), Chicago (Don't bother drafting a QB - send the '08 2nd and the '09 4th to Philly and get McNabb), Carolina (unless they're playing someone else on this list, they're not winning again in '07).

And quickly 2 picks for the "early" games this week. I was 10-6 last week to jump back up to 103-97-11 on the season. Slowly inching towards the 25-games over .500 goal...

Lines accurate as of 6:15pm Thursday night, and as always taken from Bodog.com. Home teams in CAPS.

Broncos (-2) over TEXANS: I have no idea what to make of either team at this point. Both are 6-7 and not making the playoffs at this point. The Broncos are completely schizophrenic; the Texans are relying on Sage Rosenfels at QB. Both teams dismantled what should have been tough opponents last week. And I can't even use the AFC vs. NFC argument. I guess I just trust Jay Cutler more than I trust Rosenfels. Even on the road.

Bengals (-9) over 49ERS: The Bengals get the Rams, Niners, Browns & Dolphins to finish the year. See what I meant when I said they had a legitimate shot at finishing 8-8?

That's it for tonight. Back tomorrow with the Sunday/Monday picks.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 5:44 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week 14

Well, after a less than stellar 7-9 showing in Week 13, I'm looking for a rebound to boost my record back up to where it should be. I'm 93-92-11 for the year, including the loss on last night's Bears/Redskins pick. Not my best week, but still above .500 for the season.

Let's keep it going.

As always with the picks, home teams are in ALL CAPS, and the lines are from bodog.com, accurate as of 5:30 Friday night.

Panthers (+11) over JAGUARS: Boy do I want to take the Jags here. I just don't trust their offense enough yet to give up 11-points. This feels like another one of those "Jags' money line, Panthers on the spread" parlay bets.
Cowboys (-11.5) over LIONS: Let me ask a question - has a fan base ever lost faith in their team as fast as Lions' fans seem to be jumping off of the Detroit bandwagon? There's just a trail of bodies strewn all across downtown Motown of Lions' fans ripping off their throwback Barry Sanders jerseys.
BILLS (-7.5) over Dolphins: Almost too easy... and that actually kind of scares me. At least I can rely on the Dolphins to fold in a cold-weather December game.
Giants (+3) over EAGLES: Anybody else notice that it seems like the oddsmakers are the only people who have yet to realize the Eagles just aren't that good this year? They were 3-point favorites against the Seahawks last week too... I just don't get it.
PACKERS (-11) over Raiders: I've got no faith in the Raiders' defense to shut down the Packers' passing game - regardless of whether it's Favre or Rodgers under center. The Packers have too many weapons for the Raiders' defense to cover, not to mention Oakland's inability to stop the run.
Chargers (-1.5) over TITANS: I wrote on Wednesday that the Chargers seem to be figuring it all out at exactly the right time. Philip Rivers on the road in this game scares the bejesus out of me, but I think the Chargers' defense should be good enough to shut down Vince Young.
BENGALS (-7) over Rams: This line is pulled as of right now, but at last check it was up at -7. I'm interested to see just how effective the Bengals can be on offense against a very bad St. Louis defense - I saw a lot in last week's game to make me think that Cincy's offensive unit is in desperate need of a shakeup. And I don't think it's Chad - T.J. WhateverHisNameIs drops far too many passes and makes far too big a scene when the ball doesn't come his way. Especially for a #2 receiver.
Bucs (-3) over TEXANS: There's a distinct possibility that this game could start as Luke McCown vs. Sage Rosenfels... And people wonder why quarterback is the most important position on a football team?
SEAHAWKS (-7) over Cardinals: Is it just me, or does Seattle seem like the worst 8-4 team we've seen in a few years? And doesn't it seem like we're saying that every year? No matter this week - Kurt Warner likely won't have Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin to throw to.
49ERS (+9) over Vikings: Just seems like there needs to be one "Wow" upset this week, and I'm really hoping it's not...
PATRIOTS (-10) over Steelers: This game actually worried me a lot more before the Patriots' last two games, before they played so terribly against two clearly inferior opponents. Here's the thing - those games should have woken them up. The Eagles & Ravens aren't going anywhere this year, so the chance to knock off the Pats was the biggest thing left on their schedules. The Steelers have all but clinched a playoff appearance, so this game - while still important - might not mean as much to them. Plus, Anthony Smith felt the need to open his mouth. Probably not a good idea.
Browns (-3.5) over JETS: If last week's line made no sense to me, this one has me absolutely perplexed. The Browns still have the inside track to the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, and the Jets have next week's dismantling in Foxboro to look forward to.
Chiefs (+7) over BRONCOS: Denver's still pretty bad, right? We've all figured this out by now, haven't we? I don't know, maybe it's just me. I still can't figure out how they beat the Steelers, although it makes me feel a little better about this week.
Colts (-10) over RAVENS: Talk about a letdown game... Think there's any chance the Ravens - or their fans, for that matter - show up for this one? They can't possibly have anything left in the tank for the Colts.
Saints (-4.5) over FALCONS: Too many injuries for this line to be listed anywhere, but Bodog hat it at -4.5 before they pulled it. Let's put it this way - I don't care how bad the Saints' defense is, the Falcons are starting Chris Redman at QB. The man who lost a starting job to Kyle Boller. Sorry - not buying into that one.

RECAP: Panthers / Cowboys / BILLS / Giants / PACKERS / Chargers / BENGALS / Bucs / SEAHWAKS / 49ERS / PATRIOTS / Browns / Chiefs / Colts / Saints

That's it everyone. Just for the record, since I stopped putting my own money on these games, my record is 50-40-2. Not sure what to make of that, but...

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 5:23 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Season - Week 14 Rants & Ranks

Before jumping into this week's Rants & Ranks and the Thursday night pick, a quick sidebar about the MLB Winter Meetings - specifically, the rumored Johan Santana to the Red Sox deal.

Look, I'm a Red Sox fan. A pom-pom waving, Yankee hating, die hahd Sawx fan. So if that colors my opinion of this trade, than so be it. It's not like I've ever tried to promote journalistic integrity on this blog, or ever pretended not to be swayed by my "fanhood", as ESPN360 likes to call it.

To me, Johan Santana has the best track record of any pitcher under 30 that has come on the market in the past five years. Sure, there's the lingering question about how much money he'll demand, about the possibility of some upcoming shoulder troubles (Pedro, anyone?), and the ever present question of just how he'd fare in the Boston sports climate - something this current regime has been very, very hit or miss in judging. But his numbers should speak for themselves - in a rotation with Josh Beckett for the next however many years, the Red Sox would instantly have the best 1-2 combo in the majors in probably the past 10 years. Yes - better than Pedro/Schilling. Better than Randy/Schilling. Better than pretty much anything going back to the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz days of the mid-90's.

The holdup for Boston fans seems to be the inclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury in the trade to the Twins. Three things to consider here, at least for me: 1) Ellsbury has played two months at the Major League level. Sure, he "proved" he can play in Boston. Just like Shane Spencer & Ricky Ledee "proved" they could handle New York with their cup of coffee during the Yankees' dynasty. 2) He had a couple insane months, and was a catalyst in leading the Red Sox to another World Series title. But he also faced just about every team only once, meaning pitchers didn't have much of a book on him yet. Anyone who thinks he's keeping up a .353 AVG, .903 OPS, and the rest of the numbers extracted over 162 games (about 80 runs, 160 hits, 30 doubles, 12 HR, 80 RBI and 40 SB) is fooling themselves. 3) The final argument is always - "But he's got so much potential!" Listen - give me proven talent over potential any day of the week. If I can get a 2-time Cy Young Award winner with the talent to be a 20-game winner as the anchor of a team like the Red Sox, and the biggest piece I'm giving up is a very highly touted prospect with the chance to be a multi-time All-Star over the course of his career, I'm taking the veteran and wishing the prospect all the luck in the world.

Call it the curse of Jeff Bagwell, and to a lesser extent Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, David Eckstein, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, and every other "prospect" that has ever been dealt away for a proven veteran, then actually panned out into a very good Major League Talent. No matter how the veteran performs over the period of time he's here, the fans will always pine for "what might have been".

Just remember: for every Bagwell, Ramirez & Varitek, there are fifty Tony Armas' and Carl Pavano's - the two "centerpiece" prospects Dan Duquette traded for some guy named Pedro about 10 years ago.

The other thing to consider is that it's not exactly like the Red Sox are turning into spendthrifts anytime soon. If they were cutting ticket prices, taking less money for their TV deal, and trying to pare the payroll by relying more on guy still on their original minor league deals, then it would make sense to hold onto guys like Ellsbury & Ramirez. But as long as the Sox are still big players on every marquis free agent to hit the market, it's a little disingenious to say that they need to hold on to prospects. They've got the money, they've got the farm system talent - why not field the best team possible, instead of the best possible team for the price?

And before you say it - yes, I'm the same person who wasn't a big fan of the Hanley Ramirez / Josh Beckett trade two years ago. I'll admit it - I was wrong. Hanley is a supreme talent, but if you hadn't noticed... Beckett & Lowell aren't too shabby either.


Onto the abridged Rants & Ranks - that little MLB sidebar took longer (and more words) than I thought...


The Fab 5

1. New England (12-0): And... exhale. Even after the poor showings the last two weeks, they're still 11-point favorites against the Steelers as of this post. That's a lot of respect for a team whos offense has been cut in half the last two weeks, and who suddently seems to have forgotten how to stop the run.
2. Dallas (11-1): Pretty convincing win last week, and 10 days to prepare for Detroit this week. No reason to think they'll be any lower than the #2 spot next week either.
3. Indianapolis (10-2): There's the Colts team we've all come to expect every Sunday. Who the hell woke them up, anyway?
4. Steelers (9-3): Willie Parker terrifies me this weekend. What terrifies me more is that if they manage to win, I'm going to be in for some serious taunting for... oh, about ten months or so.
5. San Diego (7-5): Don't look now, but the Chargers have just about clinched the AFC West, and seem to be figuring it all out at exectly the right time. Even if Philip Rivers looks like a petulent three-year old who just got sent to a time-out.

Others receiving votes: Green Bay (Hope ten days is enough for Brett Favre, but if not, they should still handle Oakland with ease), Tampa Bay (talk about having a horseshoe up your ass... how the hell did they win that game?), Jacksonville (sooner or later, they've got to win one of those games with the Colts, and decisively).


The Foul 5

5. NY Jets (3-9): Only because they plastered a team below them by 27 points last week. By the way - I love Simmons' idea of the Patriots deactivating the punter (very last paragraph) before next week's game in Gillette. If only...
4. Atlanta (3-9): What a terrible way to follow up this week's outstanding MNF game - Falcons/Saints next Monday night. Looks like I'll be hitting the bed (or the bottle) a little early that night...
3. St. Louis (3-9): Remember when it looked like a dogfight for the #1 overall pick between the Rams & Dolphins? Now St. Louis might fall out of the top five - they're just that good!
2. San Francisco (3-9): Sorry... I just can't stop giggling thinking about who the Patriots will be drafting #2 overall... or just how many picks they'll be stockpiling in trades. They might get enough to start their film production company up again.
1. Miami (0-12): Pretty self explanatory. Don't remember where I saw it, but last week some TV announcer was looking at the Pats' remaining schedule (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, @Miami, @ NY Giants), and started calling out "That'll be close... that's a 50-point game... that's a hundred pointer... and who knows about that last one." Dunno - just made me smile for a long time.

Others receiving votes: Oakland (see, I complained about it long enough, and finally Jamarcus Russell found the field), Cincinnati (team in turmoil... I say Marvin Lewis gets one more year), Washington (probably unfair, but I don't see them winning one of their final four games - Chicago, @ NYG, @Vikings, Dallas).



And finally, the pick in tomorrow's Thursday Night NFL Network Game of the Week - Line from Bodog.com and accurate as of 7:30pm tonight... And I already kind of gave it away.

Bears (+3) over REDSKINS: They can't rely on the emotion from last week. They can't rely on having time to recover from the physical game against the Bills. They certainly can't rely on their offense (5th fewest points in the NFC) and now, obviously, the defense is worse. Just don't see them pulling it out.

Back Friday with the weekend picks.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 6:47 PM 0 comments

2007 Rants & Ranks - Week 13(ish) & Picks (Part Two)

Well, awful glad I waited until after last night's Cowboys/Packers game before jumping on and trying to setup the weekly ranks. Makes things a little bit clearer for me.

Since I haven't done this in awhile, there's a chance I might be a little rusty with these rankings. Are the Patriots still good? Are the Dolphins still bad? OK, I guess everything is normal...


1. New England (11-0): Even though they got a bit of a scare last week against the Eagles, they're still the clear-cut, undisputed, don't even think about mentioning another team in the same sentence, Number 1 team in the NFL. By the way - had I known that Donovan McNabb would be sitting and AJ Feeley would play last week, there's no way I would have taken the Pats to cover 24 points. I firmly believe that Donovan McNabb is actually bad for the Eagles at this point.
2. Dallas (11-1): Can't argue with the numbers - althought their passing defense might be a little suspect (20th in the league), their rushing defense, and both rushing & passing offense are all no worse than 11th. If Brett Favre misses any chunk of time, Dallas' path to Super Bowl XLIII looks pretty clear.
3. Indianapolis (9-2): I still think they're the biggest threat to the Patriots' run at history. Yet another Pats/Colts AFC Championship Game could either be the worst thing for the NFL, or the best thing we've ever seen as fans. If Indy's healthy, I'm leaning towards the latter.
4. Green Bay (10-2): ...Pending the status of #4. For as good as Aaron Rodgers looked after Favre went down last night, let's not forget that he was playing the 20th ranked passing defense in the league. Not to mention, the Packers' defense looked overmatched most of the night - although a couple crucial calls going the other way could have made all the difference.
5. Pittsburgh (8-3): I was on vacation when it happened, so I didn't get to treat this with the proper reaction, but... uh... HOW THE HELL DID THEY LOSE TO THE JETS? Good God - that's 100% inexcuseable! Arizona - OK, they had the ex-coordinators factor. Denver - The Broncos always play well on Monday Night. But THE JETS? That loss did more to reassure me that the Patriots will have an undefeated regular season than any Patriots' win.

Others receiving votes: Cleveland (If Romeo Crennel isn't the coach of the year, then there is absolutely NO sense to the voting process - and that's coming from an unabashed Patriots' fan), Jacksonville (Gonna be a fun game to watch Sunday), Tampa Bay (Abaolutely stunning that they're the 3rd best team in the NFC right now)



5. Oakland (3-8): I'll keep saying it until it happens - at what point so they let JaMarcus Russell step on the field and get some game action? I know they're technically not eliminated - 3 games back in the division with 5 to play - but is there really any chance they leapfrog three other teams?
4. NY Jets (2-9): Of any team in this half of the list, they've got the single best "quality" win. See #5 in "The Fave 5" for more information...
3. San Francisco (3-8): So, if the Jets and Rams manage to sneak out a couple more wins, and the Niners finish at 3-13, do the Patriots take Darren McFadden with the #2 overall pick in neat year's draft? Imagine that backfield for a second or three...
2. St. Louis (2-9): Just when they started to look competant on offense over the past few weeks, Marc Bulger gets hurt. Figures. Guess I'll be sitting Torry Holt & Steven Jackson for this weeks' games. Or at least Holt - Jackson still might be a viable option.
1. Miami (0-11): Not sure if this says more about the hard luck Miami has endured this year, or just how bad the Jets are; Miami - winless Miami, mind you - is a one-point favorite over the Jets - the two-win Jets, mind you - this weekend. Wow.

And that leads nicely into an abridged version of this week's picks - limited commentary except where necessary. A solid 9-7 last week to push up to 86-82-11 for the '07 season, though I'm tempted to give myself a push on the Patriots/Eagles pick with the late injury information... nah.

By the way - I noticed that I screwed up, so for the past few weeks my picks have had the wrong title. Basically, I picked Week 9, then I picked Week 10 but called it Week 9 in the title, then just kept going one week behind. Whatever. It's fixed now. I'm sure nobody cares. Just putting it out there.

This weeks picks, home teams in CAPS, and lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 5:45pm Friday.

Falcons (+3.5) over RAMS: Harrington/Leftwich on the road, or Gus Frerotte at all. It's decisions like this that keep gamblers up at night, or that make us rethink our choices in life.
REDSKINS (-6) over Bills: Too much emotion.
VIKINGS (-4) over Lions: Lions on the road... not making that mistake again.
Texans (+4) over TITANS: Gut feeling.
Jaguars (+7) over COLTS: When was the last time these two played a game that wasn't close?
DOLPHINS (-1) over Jets: Finally.
Chargers (-6) over CHIEFS: Let's see Kolby Smith do that against San Diego...
Seahawks (+3) over EAGLES: Donovan's back. Fans boo him off the field by halftime.
49ers (+3) over PANTHERS: Flip a coin - it's a good a method as any with this one.
Browns (-1) over CARDINALS: Line makes zero sense to me.
Broncos (-3.5) over RAIDERS: Could turn into a shootout - at least one team has a legitimate quarterback.
Bucs (+3.5) over SAINTS: Hmmm... OK. Watch out for Galloway, Hilliard, Graham... pretty much any Tampa Bay offensive player.
BEARS (+2) over Giants: Too many injuries for NY, too much mini-momentum for Chicago.
STEELERS (-7) over Bengals: Could be an ice storm in Pittsburgh this weekend... let's see how the turf here looks after that.
Patriots @ Ravens: This line is at 21 points right now. In just about any other situation, I'd take the Pats and not even think twice. But after the 24-point spread (which actually climbed to 26 after McNabb was ruled out), and the subsequent 3-point game, I'm rethinking this. In fact, let's do this - take the Pats' money line and the Ravens (+21). It's feeling like a 14-17 point game.

By the way, scary non-parity NFL thought of the day: Not only have the Pats already become the only team to clinch their division, but with any combination of two more Patriots' wins and two losses by Indy and one loss by both the Steelers & Jaguars, they clinch the #1 overall seed in the AFC. So, theoretically, by next week. Yikes.

RECAP: Falcons / REDSKINS / VIKINGS / Texans / Jaguars / DOLPHINS / Chargers / Seahawks / 49ers / Browns / Broncos / Bucs / BEARS / STEELERS / Patriots

That's it. Back next week. Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 5:14 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week 13 (Part One)

Less than two and a half hours before kickoff, I'm coming to you with the most up to date lines for tonight's games. And it has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with the fact that the NFL has completely screwed up my posting schedule by having weekly Thursday games. I understand the Thanksgiving Day game. It's tradition. It's an American Institution. Blah blah blah... But why this week? Or next? Just because these two teams played last week, there's no reason they can't play Sunday.

Sorry, I'm just venting a little.

Also, the Thursday game messes up the weekly Rants & Ranks post, so that is coming tomorrow. At least we'll have some clarity on who the best team in the NFC is.

So without further ado (and by "ado", I mean "endless bitching and whining about inane topics that don't even involve the fact that 85% of America isn't even eligible to watch tonight's game...") here's tonight's pick:

Packers (+7) over COWBOYS: I think the Cowboys get exposed tonight. Brett Favre will probably pass for about 350, 3 TDs and maybe a garbage pick. Dallas' pass defense is just that bad. Green Bay's defense has been better than advertised this season, and if there's one thing I've learned over the past four years of picking games it's this: There is NO REASON to ever bet against Brett Favre in a Prime Time game. None. He could be playing 1 vs. 11 (and for the last few years he has been), and I'd still take him to cover.

Back tomorrow with Rants, Ranks, and the rest of the picks.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 5:46 PM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week 11 (Part Two)

Banner day yesterday - a solid 2 out of 3! Hey, 2 outta 3 got me through college - it's certainly good enough for me in weekly picks. Let's see if we can get 2-for-3 the rest of the season!

A solid 10-5-1 last week to setup a nice run for the final five weeks of the season (wow, that looks suspiciously like... 2-out-of-3!), moves the overall record for the year to 75-74-11. Add in the Thanksgiving Day picks, and we're rollin' baby - 77-75-11!

Onto this week's picks. Home teams in CAPS, lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 4:45pm Friday afternoon.

Titans (-1.5) over BENGALS: Very simply, the Titans are a playoff team. The Bengals look headed for a top-8 draft pick this season. Even after the poor showing the Titans had last week (way to really step up there on a national stage boys...), they should be able to handle the lowly Bengals.

JAGUARS (8.5) over Bills: Poor Buffalo. They looked like they were on a mission just a couple weeks ago, then they lost their only real threat on offense in Marshawn Lynch (one week after I traded him away in my big fantasy league, I might add...). Then they had themisfortune of running into a rested Patriots' team the week after the bye. Without Lynch again this week, they don't stand a chance of covering this line.

CHIEFS (-6) over Raiders: Tough to see Priest Holmes be forced out of the league after only two weeks back in the game. Well, tough unless you're like me and were able to trade him just before last week's games (straight up for a #1 QB, no less!). I'm not sure who's going tobe running the ball for the Chiefs this week, but against the Raiders, it really shouldn't matter all that much.

BROWNS (-3.5) over Texans: I'm actually a little torn on this one. The Texans are getting healthy at the right time, getting Matt Schaub & Andre Johnson back even though they're relying on Ron Dayne to run the ball. But the Browns might actually have the juice to pull off some type of miraculous Wild Card run this season, and to do it, they'll need to win games like this one.

Seahawks (-3) over RAMS: This line has been pulled from just about every major sportsbook, but at last look it was hovering around three. Unless the Seahawks lose both Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander, they should be able to win and cover.

GIANTS (-7) over Vikings: Has anyone seen Plaxico Burress? I could've sworn he was just here like three weeks ago, now I can't seem to find him. If he's not back this week against the Vikes' deplorable passing defense, he may never return.

Saints (-3) over PANTHERS: Wow, Carolina looks awful. Not that the Saints look like world-beaters, but they've got to be able to win and cover this line, right? If not, we might as well just hand the division to the Bucs right now. By the way - look for Steve Smith to have a nice game against Jason David - Andre Johnson torched him last week. Did I mention I also traded for Johnson before the game? God I look like a genius...

BUCS (-3) over Redskins: Hmmm. This is another tough call. The Bucs have looked good this year, doing jujst enough to win games, and with that division they're pretty much on cruise control through December. The Skins still have a legitimate shot at a Wild Card berth, but they'll need to get hot in a hurry.

49ers (+11) over CARDINALS: No idea. 11-points just seems like a ridiculous amount to give up when you're depending on the Arizona Cardinals. Even if it is the Niners offense. Oh by the way - I'd take the under (38) in this one. Just a hunch.

Broncos (+1) over BEARS: Sorry - the Bears lost to the Seahawks and didn't even keep it close. They've lost all form of respect from me. I don't care if they're playing a home game in December - they're not good enough to be favored over any AFC Teams whose names don't include "Miami" or "Dolphins". Even the Jets.

CHARGERS (-10) over Ravens: I don't feel good at all about giving up 10 points to the Ravens, especially when Philip Rivers is the quarterback I'm betting on. But it could be worse. I could be giving up...

PATRIOTS (-24) over Eagles: 24 points?!?! That's a joke, right? That's a friggin' college football line, a Michigan vs. Appalachin State line, a USC/Stanford line, ah... uh oh. Um... are we sure Donovan McNabb's not playing in this game? Do we have that in writing? I'll be honest with you - this might be the first week I take the Patriots and am actually nervous about them covering the spread.

STEELERS (-16.5) over Dolphins: Nice Monday Night game for all of America outside of Pittsburgh & Miami. No reason to watch past the first quarter, so we can all go to bed at a reasonable hour after the first day back from work following the holiday.

RECAP: Titans / JAGUARS / CHIEFS / BROWNS / Seahawks / GIANTS / Saints / BUCS / 49ers / Broncos / CHARGERS / PATRIOTS / STEELERS

And on that note, I hope you all had a good holiday and have a good weekend. I'll be spending mine making the 12-hour drive back to Pittsburgh for work Monday morning.

I can't even begin to describe how much I am hating that idea already.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 4:44 PM 1 comments

2007 NFL - Week 11 Picks (Part one)

My apologies for the lack of a Rants & Ranks post this week. I was a little preoccupied. I was in Vegas. Probably not a good idea, after the week I had following blowing out a tire on my car. In fact, I blame that single event for screwing me up totally. I'll bring a couple stories from the trip to the table later in the week.

Real quick, before I go gorge on turkey and all the fixings, the picks for today's games:

Packers (-4) over LIONS: I'm quickly losing faith in the Lions and Jon Kitna's preseason 10-win prediction. They should still be good for 8, maybe 9. But 10 looks tougher and tougher. P.S. The Packers are pretty good right now.

COWBOYS (-14.5) over Jets: Talk about a letdown game. The Jets manage to pick off the Steelers, then get rewarded with a Thanksgiving Day, short week, road game, facing the second best team in the NFC and third best in the NFL (see how I'm working those missing ranks in here...). In other news, maybe 4-4 isn't out of the question for Kellen Clemens. By the way - I feel a lot better about a tease here than the full 14.5. Feels like a 13-point Dallas win to me.

FALCONS (+13) over Colts: I said it last week, I'll repeat it today - I'm not taking the Colts to cover a big line until I see all their weapons back on the field. They don't have the pieces on offense to generate quick scores, and they don't have the pieces on defense to force opposing teams into short three-and-out situations to hold their score down. 13 points, even to the Falcons, is too much.

RECAP: Packers / COWBOYS / FALCONS

Back Friday with the Sunday picks.

Lata

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 11:41 AM 0 comments

Week 11 Picks

Early picks this week everybody. Tired of putting up the picks late Friday afternoon and having people e-mail me to complain that they didn't read them in time. Not that my picks are stellar this year - I think people are pissed once they realize we picked the same way and they're about to lose money.

Anyway, after my back to back runs of 9-4 in Week 8 and 8-5 in Week 9, I cam crashing back to Earth last weekend with a 6-8-1 showing. I was hoping for 8-6-1 to get to .500, but it didn't quite happen - the numbers on teh year currently sit at 65-69-10. Not dead yet, but with only 7 weeks left in the season, I'm not exactly sitting pretty either.

Maybe I'll just bet money lines from now on. Probably a whole lot easier anyway.

Onto this week's numbers - as always, lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of 9am Thursday. Home teams are in CAPS.

Raiders (+5.5) over VIKINGS: So, the Vikings get blown away last week, suffering only the third shutout of the season (to the Packers no less!) and this week they're giving five and a half while still not having a viable quarterback or running back? How bad does Vegas think Oakland is?

EAGLES (-10.5) over Dolphins: I'm actually kind of interested to see this kid Beck in Miami. Considering that there really isn't much competition for the Patriots in the AFC East for the next couple of seasons, I'd like to see what they'll be up against in about 2011.

JAGUARS (-3) over Chargers: I can't make sense of the Chargers, and apparantely neither can Vegas. They're giving the Jags the customary 3-point homefield advantage, and nothing else. If the Chargers play like they did in the first half last week, this this is a major notch in San Diego's belt. But if they play like the second half against the Colts, the Jaguars will be atop the AFC South at the end of the day.

Browns (-3) over RAVENS: If the Ravens can't put up points on the Bengals defense, there's no way they're hanging in this game. The Browns are for real people, and you have no idea how weird it is to type that.

TEXANS (pk) over Saints: The Texans get Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson back for this game, just in time to light up the Saints bottom-feeding pass defense. I should know - I just traded for both of them this week.

Bucs (-3) over FALCONS: I know the Birds are making a push toward the top of the NFC South (?!?!), but the Bucs are stil lthe best team in that division. I think they come out fast and put this game away early. But it's the NFC - a 7-9 record for the Falcons should have them in line for a Wild Card...

Cardinals (+3.5) over BENGALS: I've seen nothing at all to make me think the Bengals should be favored the rest of this season. The defense is a seive. The offense had to settle for seven field goals last week against a vastly overrated Baltimore defensive unit. The Bengals are just plain bad.

LIONS (-3) over Giants: Only because the Lions are the home team. By the way - I played poker last week with a couple guys from Detroit (don't ask about the results... I still haven't stopped shaking). Now I understand why the Lions were underdogs last week - they are a completely different team on the road.

PACKERS (-10) over Panthers: Do we know who's starting for the Panthers yet? My point exactly...

Chiefs (+15.5) over COLTS: I know it's Brodie Croyle's first start. I know the game is in Indianapolis, and I know the Chiefs will probably have 5-8 false start penalties. But I also know the Colts are without their best receiver and best defensive lineman, and that the Chiefs should be able to run the ball pretty well and control the clock. If that's the case, the Colts won't have enough time on offense to build up a 16-point lead.

Steelers (-10) over JETS: No reason for this line to be under 14. Think Big Ben's had a nice run the past couple of weeks? Wait until this week and next when he gets the Jets and Dolphins.

Rams (-3) over 49ERS: How bad is it for San Francisco? St. Louis just won their first game of the year, and really the only game in which they've looked competetive for 60 minutes, and now they're a three point favorite on the road for a division game. Ouch.

Bears (+6) over SEAHAWKS: I'm not convinced about Seattle's abilities or Chicago's futility. I know Rex Grossman's back under center - maybe this time he wakes up and realizes how to be an NFL quarterback.

COWBOYS (-11) over Redskins: I was all set to take the Redskins and the Cowboys' money line. Even had the whole thing written out here. Then I remembered Sean Taylor is out, and there is nobody in the Washington secondary to slow down Terrell Owens and impede his path to dancing on the star.

Patriots (-16) over BILLS: If Marshawn Lynch was playing, I'd take the Bills to cover this line. But with the Pats' defense knowing they can force J.P. Losman to beat them... well, let's just say I don't see that happening.

Titans (+2) over BRONCOS: For as much as Denver loves to perform in prime time, nationally televised games... uh - so does Vince Young.

RECAP: Radiers / EAGLES / JAGUARS / Browns / TEXANS / Bucs / Cardinals / LIONS / PACKERS / Chiefs / Steelers / Rams / Bears / COWBOYS / Patriots / Titans

That's it. Back again next week with the Ranks. And maybe a good story or two...

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 9:27 AM 0 comments

2007 NFL Picks - Week Nine

We've officially reached the halfway point of the NFL Season (yes, I realize technically last week was the halfway point, being Week 9 of a 17 week season... let me finish making my point before you jump all over me). Every NFL Team has played at least eight games, or half of their schedule, and four teams have played nine.

Seems like a logical time for some snap judgements about the first half of the year, as well as some completely unreliable predictions about the final eight weeks of the season.

Looking Back...

... Chicago might have been the biggest fluke Super Bowl team of the last ten years, going back to the '98 Falcons...

... If not for the final nine minutes last week, people all over the country would be talking about the Indianapolis Colts as a possible dynasty in the making. As it is, they're already putting out lines on the AFC Title Game Rematch (it's PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Colts if you're interested)...

... You know the league is in full-blown parity mode when not one, not two, but three divisions could be won by an 8-8 team. The NFC South & West, and the AFC West all have division leaders no better than 1-game over .500...

... And the other five divisions are led by teams that are 9-0, 7-1, 7-1, 7-1, and 6-2...

... 10 teams are currently at .500 or within one game either way. 10 out of 32. Meaning that if the NFL has it's dream come true, 10 teams will finish at 8-8, and 11 others will finish on one side or another of the line. And that's not entirely impossible...

Looking Ahead...

... There's no way the Lions, Chiefs, Panthers, Browns & Titans can remain in their respective division hunts much longer, is there?

... On that same note, count me among the group that would love to see Brett Favre reach a Super Bowl this season, if only because he will most likely face New England and see what it feels like to be completely blown away by a far superior team on the biggest stage in sports.

... The AFC Playoffs will feature some combination of New England, Indy, Pittsburgh & San Diego in the top four spots. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion. Hell - The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win next week at Buffalo if the Bills also lose this week, which is pretty sick when you think about it.

... Even in the Reggie Bush/Vince Young/Matt Leinart draft class, teams didn't look like as much of a lock for the Number one and two picks as Miami & St. Louis (a combined 0-16) do right now.

... But don't count the 49ers, Falcons, Raiders, Bengals, and - of course - the Jets out of that hunt.

OK, onto this week's picks. I’m riding something of a mini-wave the past two weeks, following up Week 8’s 9-4 showing with a solid 9-5 in Week 9. Though, to be fair, I could give myself for correctly predicting a 4-point Patriots’ win even though I chose to take them to cover a 6-point line. But I won’t.

And how about this – the 9-5 record last week beings me back up to just barely under .500 on the season at 59-61-9. Ignore the fact that I forgot to pick the Steelers/Ravens game on the blog – I’ve given myself credit for the win, since I had money on Pittsburgh (-10). Good enough for me.

Going into these picks, I actually checked lines multiple times during the week instead of once on Wednesday and again when I wrote the post. There’s a logical explanation for it – with the Patriots not playing, I’ve got no virtually guaranteed covers, so I thought I’d actually do my homework for once.

So, here goes. As always, home teams in CAPS, and all lines are from Bodog.com and accurate as of 9pm tonight.

(Click on photo for bigger size)

For only the third time in the history of this blog, I’m providing visual evidence to back up a point. Or, in this case, three points. Click that photo above and note the three lines that I circled on Monday night, just after they were released. Go ahead, I can wait…

Now, compare those to the current lines as of Friday night. Sometimes I wish I made bets early and often to take advantage of the oddsmakers’ mistakes.

Cowboys (-2.5) over GIANTS: The first time these teams met, the Cowboys blew New York completely off the field. Rumors started swirling about Tom Coughlin’s job security on the Giants’ sideline. Since then, New York has gone 6-1, completely decimating opponents with, of all things, a swarming defense. But not this week. Dallas is too strong, and has too many offensive weapons.

Lions (Pk) Over CARDINALS: I’ll be honest, I have absolutely no idea why the Lions aren’t favored by at least 1.5 here. I understand they have the worst defense in the league, and that it will catch up to them eventually. But it’s the Cardinals for Christ’s sake! It’s not like the Lions are traveling to the RCA Dome or the Razor – they’re heading for the desert, to play a 3-5 team!

Colts (-4) over CHARGERS: Wait a second… you’re telling me that I can take the Colts and Joseph Addai over a banged up Chargers team that just allowed almost 300 yards rushing to a rookie, and I only have to give up 4 points? Hmm… lemme think this one over for a second…

Now, before I continue… do any of those lines make sense to you? Does Vegas know something the rest of us don’t? You’ve got the best team in the NFC giving less than a field goal, a 6-2 team as a pick-‘em against a 3-5 team, and the second best team in the NFL (who easily could still be in the argument as the best team) playing against a team that has struggled just to stay at .500. I mean… wow.

As for the rest of the games…

TITANS (-4) over Jaguars: I’ve seen Quinn Gray look halfway decent as a starting QB, and I’ve seen Quinn Gray look like Quinn Gray as a starting QB. Let’s see which one shows up this week, or if the Jags’ simply put David Garrard out there on one and a half legs and hope for the best.

CHIEFS (-3) over Broncos: Can’t judge the Chiefs on last week’s home loss to the Packers. Green Bay is a team of destiny this season. Denver, however, is not. Chiefs win big, and Priest Holmes gives everyone another feel good story for this season.

Bills (-3) over DOLPHINS: At some point this season, Miami has to back into a win, don’t they? Hmmm… do the Dolphins play the Rams in ’07? That’d probably be their best chance.

Browns (+10) over STEELERS: Cleveland’s playing with a lot of confidence right now, and if Romeo Crennel is even half as smart of a coach as I suspect he is, he’s been studying the Steelers/Cardinals game tapes about 19 hours a day this week.

SAINTS (-11.5) over Rams: I can’t believe I’m actually not too worried about laying eleven and a half points to a team like St. Louis. Man they’ve fallen a long way. Even more shocking, I’m voluntarily sitting Torry Holt this week in favor of Anquan Boldin, Donald Driver & Greg Jennings. Perhaps there is a reason I haven’t won a fantasy football league in three seasons.

Falcons (+4) over PANTHERS: At least the Falcons know who their QB is going to be this week. He might not be a world beater, but at least the team has enough faith to hand him the keys to the car.

REDSKINS (-3) over Eagles: The Redskins are one of only two teams with a winning record that have given up more points then they’ve scored (Cleveland’s the other). That’s not going to translate to playoff success, and in that division it might not even translate to the playoffs at all. The Eagles need to get their first division win if they want any type of hope of backing into the second wild card spot. Don’t see it happening this week.

PACKERS (-6) over Vikings: When all you have is one offensive weapon, you’re not supposed to dominate games like the Vikings did last week. I’m still not sure if that speaks more to how great Adrian Peterson is going to be or how terrible the Chargers’ defense currently is, but I do know that the Packers will put ten in the box if they have to and force Minnesota to beat them through the air.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Bengals: Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year square off in what could end up as the ugliest AFC game of the season. Anybody want to make a pick on the over/under for combined turnovers in this game? I’ll set it at 6.5… and almost immediately take the over.

Bears (-3.5) over RAIDERS: Look on the bright side Raiders fans – another season like last year means another chance to complete botch the draft next year…

SEAHAWKS (-10) over 49ers: I listen to all the vitriol and hatred for the Patriots, a team that just three years ago was garnering universal praise for being the new “America’s Team”, for doing it the right way, for embodying team play… then I remember that New England holds the 49ers first round pick this year (currently #8 overall, but almost certain to be a top-5), and I smile.

RECAP: Cowboys / Lions / Colts / TITANS / CHIEFS / Bills / Browns / SAINTS / Falcons / REDSKINS / PACKERS / RAVENS / Bears / SEAHAWKS

Just looking for 8-6 or better this week. No need to be greedy. I‘ll take a .500 record after 10 weeks in today’s NFL.

Hell, it works for 1/3 of the teams themselves. It’s good enough for me.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 8:36 PM 0 comments