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2007 NFL Picks - Wild Card Round

Ah, the second season. Where the mistakes of the past 4+ months are erased, and everybody's record is reset to 0-0. Where the real games carry a single elimination consequence. And where I usually stink up the joint.

I haven't exactly been outstanding picking playoff games against the spread in the first four playoff seasons since I started this blog. In the '04 playoffs following the '03 season, I finished 7-4. Not bad for a novice. The following playoffs yielded records of 3-8, 7-4 and 5-6, for a grand total of 22-22. Considering I've never had a regular season of .500 or less, I consider 22-22 a failure.

But then there's this year. I had my worst regular season so date, finishing 124-122-13. Although since there are only 256 games in an NFL season, I'm not quite sure how my record ended up with a total of 259 games. Never claimed to be good at math.

Let's get into the picks. With only four games on the schedule for this week and next, these are gamblers last chances to make real parlay and teaser bets. So let's not waste them, ok?

Lines accurate as of 12pm Saturday, and as always are taken from Bodog.com. Home teams in CAPS. And away we go...

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins: Considering the 3-point home teams' advantage... you really mean to tell me that the oddsmakers only think Seattle is a half-point better than Washington if this were being played on a neutral field? So, a team that was in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago is only a half point better than one being coached by a man whose was next in line for the axe five weeks ago? And a team with one former MVP and another former MVP candidate as their running-back and quarterback is only a half-point better than a team being quarterbacked by a career backup who hadn't started a game in 10 years? OK, you keep on thinking that - I'm taking the Seahawks in a rout: 31-14.

Jaguars (-3) over STEELERS: Ridiculous. This line opened at Steelers (-1) and has shifted four full points in a week. It's kind of funny, I live in Pittsburgh (albeit probably not for too much longer) - everyone I meet is ecstatic that their team is in the playoffs, and is 100% convinced that they're not getting past the Jags. That type of collective karma can't be good for a team; just imagine the first time the Steelers suffer a negative play tonight and Heinz field is completely deflated. It's like the old "just happy to be here" conundrum - the Steelers and their fans appear to be happy to have just held off the Browns for the division (something I didn't expect to be writing for at least three more seasons), and now are ready to pack it in for the winter and prepare for a long year of compalining about the Pirates. Add in the Steelers injury losses, and I'll take the Jags, but probably not by as much as some people would expect: 24-20.

BUCS (-3) over Giants: Hold on, I'm just finishing up my loan application so I can bet against Eli Manning in the playoffs on the road... Even with as well as he played in the game last week against the Patriots (and let's be honest, he was fantastic), I have no faith in Eli to continue that trend. And I have even less faith in him to do so with a backup center snapping him the ball. I expect at least one fumbled snap and probably three sacks that can be directly attributed to a missed call on the line. On Tampa's side of the field... just imagine if Jeff Garcia knocks the Giants out of the playoffs for the third time, with a third different team? How long before he ends up buried in the Meadowlands' endzone next to Hoffa?

CHARGERS (-10) over Titans: This line just keeps going up. I think it started around Chargers (-7) and it hasn't looked back. No matter - I'm pretty certain that San Diego should be able to handle a Titans team with either a gimpy Vince Young or a healthy Kerry Collins under center. I'm actually not sure which of those situations would be better for Tennessee. But if nothing else, take the Chargers' money line in this one which is currently at a ridiculous (-600). Might not pay out a lot, but it's a win.

RECAP: SEAHAWKS / Jaguars / BUCS / CHARGERS

Boring, I know. All favorites, and only one road team. For the record, taking the money lines on all the favorites in one Mega-Parlay would currently pay out at just over 4/1. All the underdogs? Just over 63/1.

Back with the Divisional Round games, and maybe even a final Rants & Ranks section. No doubt who is going to be #1 or #32, but what's in between might be a little fun.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 11:41 AM