The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

Week 16 Rants, Ranks, and Picks

I'm making blogging history here folks. Well at least I am on this page. Actually, not really. I've done this once before.

I'm blogging from the airport. (And a hearty "huzzah" comes from the crowd...)

Anyway, I'm flying back to Boston for the holiday, staying at home with family until next Wednesday. So obviously this week was been ridiculously hectic, topped off by a head cold that kept me out of work for two days, and a dislocated finger suffered through sheer stupidity on my part (big shock there). Anyway, what I'm trying to say is... I forgot to put up the weekly ranks on Wednesday. Or the pick for last night's Steelers/Rams game (though with a Steelers (-10.5) line, I was probably taking the Rams anyway... Let's just call it a loss.)

So, from the airport, let's get some abbreviated ranks and picks in here before I board my flight. By the way - for anyone familiar with Pittsburgh traffic... I left my office at 2:45 this afternoon... got to my apartment at about 3:15 (it's 1.2 miles away)... left my apartment at about 3:45... got to the exit for the Fort Pitt tunnel at 4:40 (it's about 7 miles from my apartment)... got through the tunnel at 5:12 (it's about 0.8 miles)... got to the airport about 20 past six. All told, it usually takes 45 minutes to get from my apartment to the airport... glad I left early for my 8:45 flight.

Onto the ranks, then the picks.

The Fave 5

1. New England (14-0): Picked them to win 20-3 last week, and if not fo a fluke blocked-punt-return-for-a-touchdown, they would have. Sometimes I even surprise myself.
2. Green Bay (12-2): Yes, Green Bay. I can't in good conscience put Dallas this high after the stink bomb against the Eagles. Indy rolled over to the Raiders, and probably won't play hard for another 3 weeks. And as good as Jacksonville has looked the past few weeks... I don't believe they could win in Lambeau right now. So that leaves Green Bay...
3. Jacksonville (10-4): But the Jags are just a hair behind the Packers.
4. Indianapolis (12-2): They've got no reason to play hard from now through January.
5. Dallas (12-2): I love the media hype over T.O.'s comments about Jessica Simpson. A caller on WEEI wummed it up nicely a couple days ago "Hey Tony, if you get depressed about everyone giving you crap about dating Jessica Simpson, just remember - you get to go home and f*** JESSICA SIMPSON". Good point by you.
Others receiving votes: Cleveland (they lock up a playoff berth with a win over Cincy this week... impressive stuff, even if they'll lose in Round 1), Pittsburgh (Didn't see it live, but Willie Parker's broken leg last night looked pretty gruesome), San Diego (The only team Cleveland has any shot at beating in the AFC playoffs).

The Foul 5

5. Oakland (4-10): Wasn't their defense suposed to be their strong suit this year? Really?
4. San Francisco (4-10): Damnit! Stop winning games and hurting the Patriots' draft chances!
3. NY Jets (3-11): Maybe it was just the weather, but they actually looked feisty last week. Shades of what could have been, you know, if they had a half-competant team.
2. Atlanta (3-11): Well, you certainly showed Bobby Petrino what he was missing out on when he left the team... oh wait - they lost 37-3? Hmm.....
1. Miami (1-12): Just imagine how bad they'll be the last 2 weeks with absolutely nothing to motivate them...
Others receiving votes: NY Giants (hard to put a 9-5 team here, but does anyone have faith in them in the playoffs? If they even make it...), St Louis (At 3-12 they should be in here, but thy played pretty well against a vastly superior Pittsburgh team last night), Baltimore (Absolutely no hope for this team...)



And quickly, some picks for the Week 16 games. Had a decent go of it last week, finishing 9-7 and bumping the overall record up to 112-104-11. And for the record, all 8 of my teaser specials hit last week. Naturally, I didn't bet it - $50 on an 8-team teaser pays out at about 35-1. You do the math...

Lines accurate as of 6:30pm Friday, and as always, supplied via Bodog.com. Home teams in CAPS.

Cowboys (-11) over PANTHERS: Seems like a good time for Tony Romo to shut up... oh... just about everybody. And two or three long TD passes to #81 oughtta do the trick.
Browns (-3) over BENGALS: This line is pulled as of right now, but I can't imagine why it's only -3 to begin with. The Browns are a far superior team to Cincinnati - remember when their first matchup seemed like an upset win for Cleveland?
Packers (-9) over BEARS: Three straight road favorites, two in hostile stadiums. This week is already shaping up poorly.
COLTS (-7) over Texans: Even without trying, the Colts should be able to beat Sage Rosenfels and the rest of the Texans. But Mario Williams might feast on Jim Sorgi by about the third quarter.
LIONS (-5) over Chiefs: Yeah, sure. Whatever. Who the hell is going to watch this game? I'd be interested to see the ratings numbers outside of these two markets. even the numbers in these markets will probably suck.
BILLS (+3) over Giants: New York needs to win back some respect from just about everyone. even their own fans have lost faith at this point.
Raiders (+14) over JAGUARS: Too many points this late in the season. Even against the Raiders.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Eagles: The Saints still have something left to play for - shouldn't they be a much bigger home favorite? Sometimes I just don't get what the oddsmakers are looking at.
Falcons (+10.5) over CARDINALS: Not sure if the Falcons will score more than 10 points in this entire game, but I've got to think they're more than a little embarrassed about how they played last week. If not, expect a 2TD+ line next week.
Bucs (-6) over 49ERS: C'mon Niners! I know you've got in in you! 2 more losses - you can do it!
PATRIOTS (-22) over Dolphins: Supposed to be lousy weather in New England again this week. Difference from last week - If Cleo Lemon gets hurt, Miami doesn't have a former pro Bowler backing him up.
SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Ravens: Is there anything more humiliating than being the only win on an NFL team's record for the year? I don't see Baltimore recovering, especially not at the hardest stadium in the NFL, with Kyle Boller under center.
Jets (+8.5) over TITANS: Another line that got pulled in the last hour. Still like the Jets here, if only because I don't like Vince Young.
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Redskins: Did we actually think Tarvaris Jackson would be able to ride that wave all the way to the postseason without a hiccup? Even worse - imagine if some "savvy" fantasy GM nabbed him on waivers for the fantasy playoffs... then had that stinkbomb in the first round?
CHARGERS (-9) over Broncos: If San Diego wins out, they probably get the #3 seed and legitimately scare me as a Patriots fan. Not as much as Indy or Jacksonville, but then again - those are probably the two teams the Chargers would have to beat to get to Foxboro.

RECAP: Cowboys / Browns / Packers / COLTS / LIONS / BILLS / Raiders / SAINTS / Falcons / Bucs / PATRIOTS / SEAHAWKS / Jets / VIKINGS / CHARGERS

One more week after this one. 20 games over .500 might be out of reach, but I'll be quite happy with 10 or 15.

Back after the holiday.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Playoffs here we come, Rants and Ranks, Recap

posted by Big D @ 6:06 PM