2007 NFL Picks - Week Nine
Hallelujah Holy Shit – Where’s the Tylenol? Was that a 9-4 record last week? More importantly – is that a 51-56-9 overall record after ½ of the season (and after being at 35-46-8 just two weeks ago? Maybe things are starting to turn around here folks…
Actually, let’s not get too excited. Although I managed to pick last week’s games at a 9-4 clip, I actually managed to find a way to parlay the Bears, Bucs and 49ers into every single one of my eight bets. Three of my four misses for the week, and they killed me. (Even I wouldn’t voluntarily put money on a game involving the Rams & Browns – that’s just suicide).
So, although it looked good in print, the end results were the same – another losing week. Guh.
But fear not – in my never-ending quest to put up the most accurate numbers and information for you, my loyal reader(s), I’ve waited until after midnight Friday night into Saturday to get the most up-to-date lines before posting. No, it wasn’t just that I completely forgot to post this six hours ago. Had nothing to do with it. I swear.
Whatever. Let’s do this.
As always, lines from Bodog.com and accurate as of… well… now – 12:30am on Saturday morning. Damn I need a hobby.
Home teams in CAPS.
Redskins (-4) over JETS: What a terrible way for Kellen Clemens to get his first NFL start. The team is already toast for the year – at 1-7, they’re 7 games back in the division after 8 games. Now they have to face a
Packers (+2) over CHIEFS: Wait a minute… the Packers just went into Mile High, held their own against a middle of the road AFC West opponent, won the game in overtime… and now they’re an underdog again? I can understand the whole “back-to-back road games on a short week” argument… but the Packers actually seem to be halfway decent this year, while the Chiefs are about as confusing a team as exists in the NFL.
Cardinals (+3.5) over BUCS: Three straight road teams to cover. Strange start. Though it could be stranger – I could be picking every single road team to win outright. I’m just not that brave. Or that insane – really, either one applies.
TITANS (-4) over Panthers: I can’t make up my mind about this Titans team – they’ve got a good enough defense to hold every single opponent down when they’re locked in, but their offense is just so inconsistent that they are barely holding on for wins in games they should be winning by 14+. It’s working for them so far – I mean, they are 5-2 – but I can’t see this formula translating to more than 9 wins for the year. In the AFC that won’t get it done.
FALCONS (-3) over 49ers: It’s games like this that make me glad that there are 8 other early games to choose from to follow on the computer or at the bar. If this game doesn’t set offensive production in the NFL back by 20 years, nothing will. Let’s go out on a limb and say that the first team to double-digits wins.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Jaguars: This is a huge game for the Saints. Jacksonville has the second best defense that they’ve see this year, and they’re just about on par with the best defense in Tampa Bay (note the 1-point game between the two last week). If
LIONS (-3) over Broncos: Boy, it’s nice to be able to say things like “I think the Lions have a legitimate shot this week”, and not immediately follow it with a roaring laugh. On the flip side of that… what happened to
BILLS (+1.5) over Bengals: I can’t believe I actually feel confident about this pick. Although, I’d feel a hell of a lot better if it wasn’t J.P. Losman under center in
Chargers (-7) over VIKINGS: Let’s see just how good this “new” Chargers team is. It’s almost like someone forgot to tell them the season had started until about Week Five or so.
BROWNS (-1.5) over Seahawks: I’m slowly beginning to dismiss the theory that’s floating around (alright, it’s only floating around this page) that the Seahawks are just playing possum right now and are actually a top-2 team in the NFC. They really haven’t looked that good in a game in about a month; until they look like a team that gives a crap, I’m not backing them.
Patriots @ COLTS: Uh… this one needs a little more space in a minute…
RAIDERS (-3) over Texans: I flipped a coin. Seriously – these are two teams playing some bad football right now. When it comes right down to it, I’m just flipping a coin for games like that. Same goes for the Niners/Falcons pick – two shitty teams playing a meaningless game. Flip a coin, and don’t put a cent on the game.
Cowboys (-3) over EAGLES: This might be the stupidest line of the week. The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC, and a top-3 team in the NFL right now. The Eagles have exactly one “good” win on their schedule – the blowout of the Lions in Week 3. Their coach has got to have other things on his mind right now. So they’re the home team with a vicious fan base – that does not mean that they are keeping this game within 3 points. Cowboys, by at least 10.
Now then…
Patriots (-6) @ COLTS: There are so many storylines floating around for this game, it’s ludicrous. The Clash of the Titans. Armageddon. Super Bowl 41-and-a-half. The Patriots punishing every team in their path this year. The Colts getting zero respect as defending champions. The 100% asinine “Good vs. Evil” debate about Tony Dungy vs. Bill Belichick. The weird Daylight Saving Time rules in Indiana (If the Colts were smart about this, they’d book the Patriots’ in hotel in a part of the state that is on Central time, so they’d lose a full hour when DST ends at 2AM Sunday morning – don’t forget to change your clocks!).
Basically what it comes down to is this – these are the two best teams in football, hands down. They are on a completely different plane from every other team. Even though after Sunday one of them will (most likely) have a loss in their record, they are still far better than the other “1-loss” teams in the NFL.
To plagiarize myself from a comment I left earlier this morning over on Shanoff’s blog: “I really see one of two things happening; 1) Pats' in a complete blow-out, payback for the AFC Title game type of situation, with a final in the 41-17 range, or... 2) Very, very close game, the type we'll be talking about and dissecting for a full week, but still Pats 37-35ish... Either way, both defenses are going to be beat up and tired, and look really bad. At least the Pats have a bye next week.”
Actually, that bye scares the crap out of me. Not only because it could kill the Patriots momentum if/when they take care of the Colts this week, but because it could give some of the players something to look forward to before final gun in Indy.
I don’t think it’ll happen, but it could.
But as for what will happen… the Pats will exorcise the demons from last years’ abysmal end to the season, and finish the job they couldn’t quite wrap up back in January. Just one more step on the road to history.
Final Score: Patriots 38, Colts 34
(For the record, I’m giving serious consideration to a parlay involving the Patriots’ money line and the Colts (+6)… I honestly think it could be that close.)
RECAP: Redskins / Packers / Cardinals / TITANS / FALCONS / SAINTS / LIONS / BILLS / Chargers / Browns / RAIDERS / Cowboys / Patriots
Armageddon begins in about 40 hours… I can’t wait.
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
posted by Big D @ 12:26 AM
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