The best seat in the house is the view from the couch

2007 NFL Picks - Week Six

Since I've written three times since last week's disatrous post on the Week 5 NFL picks, I'll keep this short and sweet. I'm much worse at this than I thought. Or at least, I was last week. 2-11-1 is completely inexcuseable. That debacle dropped me to well below .500 on the year at 31-39-6 (.408). I've got a lot of work to do to get to my goal of a .600 winning percentage for the season.

As always, Home teams are in CAPS, all lines from Bodoglife.com, and they are accurate as of, well, right about now. Mostly because I spent last night on the computer until 2AM, then suddenly remembered I'd forgotten to post this. Oops.

Bengals (-3) over CHIEFS: I would have felt a lot more comfortable about this pick before I watched the Bengals/Patriots Monday Night game. This is their first time on the field since that game, and I'm not sure if they're any better with the time off.

JAGUARS (-7) over Texans: Easy Teaser Game #1. Houston is falling off fast since their lightning fast start, and the Jags are quietly putting together a relatively good year. Right now, the AFC South could feasibly be sending 3 of 4 teams to the playoffs.

BROWNS (-4) over Dolphins: How fast did this Dolphins team lose it? I can't imagine any scenario under which I'd willingly put money on them, pretty much for the rest of the season. Maybe when they play the Jets or Bills. Maybe.

BEARS (-5) over Vikings: Tough week for Ced Benson. Good week for Brian Griese. Minnesota doesn't let anyone run the ball on them (ranked 1st in rushing defense), but they let everyone pass on them (ranked 30th in pass defense). This should be a nice safe game for the Bears' defense, but I'm still making it Teaser Game #2 just in case.

Eagles (-3.5) over JETS: You know you're getting zero respect when you're hosting a 1-3 team, in one of the most hostile home stadiums in the NFL, and you're still getting three and a half points. Is it Clemens time yet for the Jets? Wake me up when it is.

Rams (+10) over RAVENS: I just don't like that Ravens offense giving up 10-points to anyone, even a team as depleted as the Rams. Id feel better about a (-4) Teaser, but for purposes of a straight spread pick, 10 is too much.

Titans (+3) over BUCS: Tennessee has been relatively healthy thus far into the season, and while they're still struggling on offense, at least they have all their weapons. Plus they have a surprisingly good defense. The Bucs have that nastiness back on defense, but the offense seems to have vanished.

Redskins (+3) over PACKERS: Absolute coin flip. The Pack is giving the -3 only because they're the home team. Otherwise, it's a toss-up. I'm taking the team riding a big win, and that has recently had a bye week to get healthy over the team looking forward to a bye and that can't seem to run the ball.

CARDINALS (-4.5) over Panthers: Please, please, please God let Vinny Testaverde start this game. Just for the sheer comedy alone. Besides, throwing to Steve Smith would be like having a shorter, louder (if that's possible) Keyshawn Johnson.

Patriots @ COWBOYS: Ya know what? Let's come back to this one...

Raiders (+10) over CHARGERS: I don't care about that 41-3 blowout last week - that was just a team blowing off a lot of anger. This Raiders team is sneaky good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull this one out, if not at least cover. Also this is Teaser Game #3.

SEAHAWKS (-7) over Saints: Not sure when the Saints will get win #1, but it ain't gonna be this week.

FALCONS (+3.5) over Giants: Nothing more than a gut feeling, but I think the Falcons could have a big day on offense. They just need their defense to hold up even a little bit.

Now... as for that "other" game...

Patriots (-6) over COWBOYS: First of all, I am wildly disappointed that this is only a 6-point line. I understand that the home team generally gets a field goal in the point spread. But even at Pats (-9), I'd be confident about this. The Cowboys nearly threw away a game to the Bills - THE BILLS! - of all teams. Their coach willingly gave the Patriots bulletin board material (and then immediately backtracked - too late Wade!), and their defense has more holes than a Labyrinth board game. If you don't think the Pats find a way to win this game by at least two scores, you're kidding yourself. And if you're still not confident enough, then tease them to a "Pick-Em" and be happy with the win.

RECAP: Bengals / JAGUARS / BROWNS / BEARS / Eagles / Rams / Titans / Redskins / CARDINALS / Raiders / SEAHAWKS / FALCONS / Patriots

Also, for the record, this will be the first week where I have no monetary interest in any of the games. Bills to pay and all. So expect my picks to go about 11-2 on the week.

Lata.

Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks

posted by Big D @ 12:18 PM