2007 NFL Picks - Week III
(Editor’s note: This was typed and ready for upload on Thursday Night. Apparently, Blogger decided to save it as a draft until I checked the page this morning - Saturday. Fuck Blogger, and my blind reliance on them. Someday I’ll learn how to write the code myself and just host the blog on my own domain. Until then, my apologies. So I’ve taken the time to re-evaluate things and check on new lines – these are the most updated numbers, and my thoughts on the games as a result of the current lines.)
Week Two in the NFL season is my second least favorite to try and pick. Aside from Week 17 when only about 1/3 of the teams actually have something to play for, Week Two is the week that screws the most gamblers nationwide. People get swayed by what the saw in Week One (Ahem…
Anyway, all that being said, I’m actually not too displeased with a 7-9 showing. It lowers my 2-week record for the season to date down to 14-16-2, but that’s OK. Week Three is the week to make up for previous mistakes…
Or to throw good money after bad. I haven’t figured out which yet.
As always, home team in CAPS. All lines from Bodoglife.com (formerly Bodog.com – apparently they got sued or something and had to change), and accurate as of 6pm Thursday 5pm Saturday evening.
Colts (-6.5) over TEXANS: I can’t believe we actually have a Colts/Texans’ game that means something for both teams! More importantly, I can’t believe we have a Colts/Texans’ game with a single-digit point spread. Guess the oddsmakers were watching the way the Titans almost pulled one out last week.
PACKERS (+6) over Chargers: This line has moved 1.5 since Wednesday towards the Chargers – it opened at SD (-4.5) This might be one of those games where it makes all the sense in the world to back the favorite, and yet they manage to cough up a cover in the late minutes, or even lose it outright. I like the way
Vikings (+3) over CHIEFS: I don’t care if Brooks Bollinger, Kelly Holcomb, Tarvaris Jackson or any other retread, has been or never will be is starting under center this week – the Chiefs have no way to stop Adrian Peterson. The Vikings defense excels at shutting down the running game – let’s see who has the balls to sit Larry Johnson on their fantasy teams this week…
Lions (+6) over EAGLES: What proof do we have that the Eagles are worthy of being 6-point favorites over a 2-0 team? Any? Philly’s QB is 9 months removed from an injury that takes 18 months to recover from; the defense is aging, and I don’t see any way they keep up with Detroit’s receivers. And I cannot believe I just wrote that.
Bills (+17) over PATRIOTS: I just can’t imagine that it’s wise to give 17 points against a division opponent, no matter how good the Patriots are, or how bad the Bills looked last week. On another note, I’ll be teasing the Patriots to -11 and feeling much better about my decision.
JETS (-3) over Dolphins: I originally had this as a Dolphins cover and possibly win, but then Zach Thomas was ruled out for the game with a concussion. That leaves a gaping hole in a defense that already was exposed and overmatched in last week’s game. Chad Pennington might not be able to beat them deep, but a steady 10-15 yards per completion and a decent running game, and the Jets should be able to take this one easily.
STEELERS (-9.5) over 49ers: And it won’t even be that close.
Cardinals (+8) over RAVENS: There is no reason on this planet or any other known extra-terrestrial entity why the Baltimore Ravens should be giving anything more than four points in any given game. Maybe the good people in Area 51 can answer that one for us. Or, maybe I should just stop typing and move to the next game…
BUCS (-4) over Rams: This just in – the Bucs might be good again! They kept it close against the Seahawks and completely dominated the Saints; that’s reason enough to think they have a chance in that division. On the other hand, the Rams are 0-2, and once again their defense has allowed 50% more points than their offense is able to score. Not a wining formula in the NFL.
BRONCOS (-3.5) over Jaguars: Gotta love the three and a half point line. It’s nice to see that the professionals have just as much of a clue about this game as I do. Here’s how I equate it – the Broncos kicked a last-second field goal to beat the Bills and went to overtime to beat the Raiders. The Jaguars, on the other hand, lost outright (and not even close) to the Titans, then steamrolled possibly the worst team in the league in
Bengals (+3) over SEAHAWKS: Very simply, I don’t think the Bengals will get embarrassed like they did last week. I think this will be close, and in that case, I’m taking the points just about every time. More importantly, the Seahawks are very quietly putting together a pretty terrible pass defense of their own – it’s almost like they know they’ve got the division title all but wrapped up already, even if they’re currently tied for second place.
RAIDERS (-3) over Browns: Gotta think the Browns are closer to Week 1’s offense than they were to Week 2’s explosion. And even though the Raiders are 0-2, they’ve lost to two 2-0 teams, once by three in overtime to a division opponent, and once by a lot less than the 15-point final margin would suggest. Throw in the Black Hole and the definite possibility of a fan opening fire on the opposing team, and I’ll take the Raiders, and cross my fingers.
Panthers (-4) over FALCONS: People keep talking about how terrible the Chiefs’ offense is this year, and believe me – it’s awful. But the Chiefs’ are actually the second worst offense in the league this year – KC’s scored 13 total points in their first two games,
REDSKINS (-4) over Giants: Let’s put it this way – the Giants’ pass defense is so bad, that in my big fantasy league, I picked up Jason Campbell off of waivers this week specifically to face New York. And I feel pretty good about the move. I’ll be expecting something in the 240 yds, 2TDs area – if that happens, the Giants don’t have a chance.
Cowboys (+3) over BEARS: There’s at least a 30% chance that
Titans (+4) over SAINTS: I’ve lost confidence in the Saints. Not to mention, this line just reeks of carry-over from last season, much like the Detroit/Phily line above. Two teams playing at home, living off of their reputations from 2006.
RECAP: Colts / PACKERS / Vikings / Lions / Bills / JETS / STEELERS / Cardinals / BUCS / BRONCOS / Bengals / RAIDERS / Panthers / REDSKINS / Cowboys / Titans
Now that my schedule is a little more settled down, I’ll try to post this and every Tuesday night for the next few weeks, and then get the posts up every Thursday night for your Friday morning reading pleasure.
(Late edit: Found this page through Deadspin. Possibly the funniest thing I've read in about a year.)
Lata.
Labels: 2007, Gambling, It's all about the Benjamins, NFL, NFL Picks, Picks
posted by Big D @ 5:39 PM
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