Wednesday, September 05, 2007

2007 NFL Picks - Week I: Part I

This is the best time of the year for me. I love it. I look forward to the beginning of the NFL season with drooling anticipation every week from the end of the Super Bowl until Kickoff on the Thursday Night Spectacular. And I'm a bigger fan of baseball than I am of football.

But it's awful tough to turn a profit betting on baseball. Just ask Pete Rose.

Anyway, tomorrow night begins the 2007 NFL Season with the Saints visiting the Colts. It also begins my quest anew to pick NFL games at a .600 clip or better. In the 3+ years that I've kept my picks on this blog, I've gone 465-383-28, a .524 winning percentage. Sadly, my numbers have gone down steadily in the last three seasons when I've picked a full year (146-100-10 in '04, 135-112-10 in '05, and 128-122-6 last season, plus 56-49-3 in the games I picked during the end of 2003). Guess that means I'm headed for a below .500 season, right?

Nah. I'm feeling good. I've done my research, I've decided to stop picking based on what "should" happen, I'm just going with some combination of my gut and my head.

200 wins here I come!

Anyway, let's kick this off right with the pick for tomorrow's Opening Night game. Home team in CAPS; line from, accurate as of, oh, about 10 minutes ago.

Saints (+6.5) over COLTS: The simple logic behind this pick is that the Saints didn't lose much this offseason aside from Joe Horn. Reggie Bush has one more year of experience, and even if they played above their heads last year, they are still a pretty solid team. On the other hand, the Colts lost big pieces of both their lines, their #1 running back and some key pieces of their defensive backfield. This should be a shootout, and in that case I'm taking an underdog everytime. Whoever has the ball last wins.


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At 3:16 PM, Blogger Lawdog1214 said...

The Colts didn't lose their #1 running back. They lost their starter who wasn't a starter in the playoffs. So they actually upgraded at RB.


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